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Winter 2011/2012

jon burrows

A bit early for this but hey....

. Did anyone here that this winter coming is supposed to be another arctic freeze? Could even be worse than 2010/2011 winter. I heard the presenter from RTE 2fm reading it off a newspaper this morning.

What are your thoughts or did you hear or read this also?

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HellFireClub

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/cold-winters-set-to-continue-for-50-years-509342.html

Yipee!

:D:D

bb1234567

50 years of heaven

:D:D:D

Musicman2000

Like this summer was meant to be a heat wave:rolleyes:

traecy1

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Like this summer was meant to be a heat wave:rolleyes:

Who said this summer was meant to be a heat wave

Pangea

There must be some sort of reason for the past two winter's if it was down to chance then it's amazing we got those two winters right after each other.
On the other hand we hear that every year is getting warmer, wasn't last year the warmest on record globally?

Pangea

On a separate note , I am watching a TV series called Game Of Thrones, It is based in Medieval times and they talk about Long winters and Long summers, (Winters lasting 10 years) etc.
Is this all fiction or was there ever a period where there was really long distances between seasons?

NIALL D

this summer is so crap , im lookin forward to winter already !!!!!

Sir Digby Chicken Caesar

lord help you if you think what we got last year was "arctic"

Min

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2011/06/17/joe-bastardi-differs-mainstream-media-beware-mini-ice-age#.TfvcaU_4gAk;twitter

derekon

Given we have only started our summer (or lack of) here in Ireland, it might seem a bit premature to be speculating about winter 2011/2012.

But here is my tuppence!

I am of the view that we are in for another harsh winter with periods of heavy snow and sub zero temperatures - is it just me, but when I hear of -6oC in Ireland now I am no longer impressed (following the -15oC's and -18oC's of last year)

This winter has a lot to live up to following last year and indeed the previous year. However I think that the finding this week by three separate groups of scientists confirming that sunspot activity is not picking up (or stopping for a period of time) must be taken seriously.

The lack of / reduced sun spot activity is leading to "blocking highs" in winter that put a stop to the never ending low pressure systems that usually line up to pass across Ireland and Britain in the winter. This allows the northern arctic/polar winds and the eastern siberian winds flood across the two islands, dragging temperatures down substantially.

My wife will hate me for saying this but I think Ireland is in for another snowy and freezing winter and this one might be even more severe than last winter

Derek

Redsunset

I compared the previous springs sea temps in October last year after finding the below text on research carried out on predicting the following winter's NAO and to myself i said well i'll let the horse run.Did it prove successful or was it just luck? Anyway once again im showing last year's and this years spring sea temps to see if indeed there is some fact to this,although i have my doubts.

Warmer water around Greenland=Blocking High??????
Cool trench in mid atlantic due to southerly tracking Jet stream of previous storm activity.Will it follow suit?
I notice it not as defined this time round.

Several years ago scientists made a breakthrough when they confirmed through the use of computer models that part of this climatic memory driving the NAO lies in the deeper ocean temperatures of the Atlantic and changes in these temperatures are largely responsible for variations in the NAO. Mark Rodwell, a climate researcher at the Met Office in the United Kingdom, was one of the researchers who made the connection. Based on this earlier work, he is now using similar models to make forecasts on the sign of NAO nearly one year in advance.

“Though this is largely a statistical relationship, there is a reason behind our forecasts. The idea is that if you want to make a forecast for the winter, then you need to look at sea surface temperatures of the winter before that,” says Rodwell.

The NAO is responsible for the path of strong storms that pass across the Atlantic, and these strong storms influence the temperatures of the ocean. By the spring of each year, the NAO has left a deep mark on the temperatures of the Atlantic.

During the summer, these ocean temperatures are largely preserved because a relatively thin layer of water heated by the sun covers the ocean beneath like a thermal blanket.

When the following winter rolls around, the warm layer is removed, revealing the sea temperatures from the previous spring, which in turn affect air pressure over the Atlantic and the next NAO.

Now a little look at sea temps for the spring 2010

SPRING 2011

Also as regards to helping any northern blocking taking hold,i see the QBO could be east again come winter but only starting to take hold so perhaps a very cold late Jan and early Feb is in store if a Startospheric Warming decides to show its head.
Here's a link showing it.
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NCEP-NCAR/.CDAS-1/.MONTHLY/.Intrinsic/.PressureLevel/.u/P/%28100%29%2810%29RANGE/Y/%285S%29%285N%29RANGE%5BX/Y%5Daverage/pdo_regression_colors/figviewer.html?my.help=more+options&map.P.units=mb&map.P.plotlast=10&map.url=T+P+fig-+colors+-fig&map.domain=+%7B+/u+-20+20+plotrange+T+last+120+sub+last+plotrange+P+100+10+plotrange+%7D&map.domainparam=+/plotaxislength+600+psdef+/plotborder+72+psdef+/XOVY+null+psdef&map.zoom=Zoom&map.P.plotfirst=100&map.T.plotfirst=last+120+sub&map.T.units=months+since+1960-01-01&map.T.calendar=360&map.T.plotlast=last&map.u.plotfirst=-20&map.u.units=m/s&map.u.plotlast=20&map.newurl.grid0=T&map.newurl.grid1=P&map.newurl.plot=colors&map.plotaxislength=600&map.plotborder=72&map.fnt=Helvetica&map.fntsze=12&map.XOVY=auto&map.color_smoothing=auto

Anyway i shall discuss that end of it come november as thats when things could get exciting or( boring ):)

Anyway not going to get into the whole low solar bit on here but the jet stream does seem to go south more often due to more blocking when in solar minimums.

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/2/024001/fulltext

up for anything

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/0617/1224299071819.html

Not

derekon wrote: »

... but when I hear of -6oC in Ireland now ...

Who's talkin -60C :eek: ??

Birroc

Not wrote: »

Who's talkin -60C :eek: ??

-6oC = minus 6 degrees Celcius.

Calibos

Birroc wrote: »

-6oC = minus 6 degrees Celcius.

Someone needs to learn that Alt 0186 = º

-6ºC = Minus 6 degrees Celcius

Iancar29

Thanks to Mark , im in a Winter Frenzy excitement mode!!

...

" Hi ...... My name is Ian, it has been over 6 months since my last snow ... its ..... its hard........

... * Tear* "

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/climate-news/something-wintry-this-way-comes-forecast-looks-bleak/24971.html

Ckit1

Well, the Mountain Ash are laden down with berries again now here in mid Kildare... even earlier than last year... and it used to be late August before we'd see that.

Cold one a comin' me thinks!

Dalton minimum, Maunder minumum, 21.12.20.12... Paradigm shift?

,
Not Clive Cussler-esque but more The Little Ice Age 1300-1850 ala Brian Fagan!

BEASTERLY

Ckit1 wrote: »

Well, the Mountain Ash are laden down with berries again now here in mid Kildare... even earlier than last year... and it used to be late August before we'd see that.

Cold one a comin' me thinks!

What agency are the trees getting there long range forecasts off?:rolleyes:

Ckit1

Is it such a leap of faith or imagination to think that perhaps Natures's 4,000,000,000 + years might have a jump on our 70,000ish years of human experience?;)

BEASTERLY

Ckit1 wrote: »

Is it such a leap of faith or imagination to think that perhaps Natures's 4,000,000,000 + years might have a jump on our 70,000ish years of human experience?;)

Yes actually, since i don't believe in magic, current weather conditions have no correlation to long range future conditions, so unless they have the ability to see into the future by magic i cant see how they could do this.

My guess is that the plants were merely reacting to the autumn like cool and wet conditions that have so far dominated the summer rather than crystal ball abilities. And how exactly would the plant having berries now help it survive a cold winter?

Ckit1

Well Beasterly, Magic aside, perhaps science, evolution and those billion years of experience have provided the Natural World with warnings, Not the voodoo kind, not the Paul Daniels kind, but with true Darwinian experience... to provide a bountiful supply of fruits, etc.. to ensure the maxiumum number of birds and insects survive a very hard winter... & in turn those surviving birds, etc. will ensure the following years propagation of the aforementioned trees and plants... Abra Kedabra...

And it's amazing... using the same crystal ball you mention... I think there will be four seasons next year too!

BEASTERLY

Ckit1 wrote: »

Well Beasterly, Magic aside, perhaps science, evolution and those billion years of experience have provided the Natural World with warnings, Not the voodoo kind, not the Paul Daniels kind, but with true Darwinian experience... to provide a bountiful supply of fruits, etc.. to ensure the maxiumum number of birds and insects survive a very hard winter... & in turn those surviving birds, etc. will ensure the following years propagation of the aforementioned trees and plants... Abra Kedabra...

And it's amazing... using the same crystal ball you mention... I think there will be four seasons next year too!

What warnings exactly, and who issues them? It's the logistics of it that im having trouble with

Ckit1

I don't think it takes the form "warning" per se Beasterly... but more like learned evolutionary behaviour in the face of changes in environmental conditions that we may be overlooking or not familiar with... electromagnetic radiation changes?, earth core changes? jet stream changes? NAO changes? El nino vs. la nina?... all those things that others have discussed tremendously well in this type of thread during previous years.

I don't have all the answers... just an Open Mind...

Trotter

Im all for this. I only said yesterday that the tree outside the house has more berries than last year and it had practically none the year before.

Im buyin a bobble hat while they're cheap.

BEASTERLY

Trotter wrote: »

Im all for this. I only said yesterday that the tree outside the house has more berries than last year and it had practically none the year before.

Im buyin a bobble hat while they're cheap.

So it had practically none in the summer of 09 and a very cold winter followed, then a year later it had a load and and another cold winter followed!

So basically the plant behaved differently but the outcome of the winter was the same! Maybe it got the wrong warning signals one year...

Trotter

BEASTERLY wrote: »

So it had practically none in the summer of 09 and a very cold winter followed, then a year later it had a load and and another cold winter followed!

So basically the plant behaved differently but the outcome of the winter was the same! Maybe it got the wrong warning signals one year...

No my tree specialises in snow. It forecasts snow. Berries on that tree = Snow in my area that winter. No berries.. No snow. Don't ruin this one on me now k?

BEASTERLY

Trotter wrote: »

No my tree specialises in snow. It forecasts snow. Berries on that tree = Snow in my area that winter. No berries.. No snow. Don't ruin this one on me now k?

Ah i see....:pac:

aurora 527

Iancar29 wrote: »

Thanks to Mark , im in a Winter Frenzy excitement mode!! ...

" Hi ...... My name is Ian, it has been over 6 months since my last snow ... its ..... its hard........ ... * Tear* "

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/climate-news/something-wintry-this-way-comes-forecast-looks-bleak/24971.html

LOL;)

bb1234567

Autumn 2011 - Winter 2012

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire.

Unless stated, averages apply nationwide for UK and Eire.

September 2011

Slightly warmer than average.

Drier than average.

October 2011

On the average for temperature.

On the average for rainfall.

November 2011

On the average for temperature.

Drier than average.

December 2011

Colder than average.

Wetter than average.

January 2012

Decidedly colder than average.

Wetter than average.

February 2012

Decidedly colder than average.

Wetter than average.
I looked up what decidedly meant and it means definitely or undoubtedly

I realy hope this winter is going to be as cold as everyone thinks and forecasts it to be

derekon

bb1234567 wrote: »

Autumn 2011 - Winter 2012

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire.

Unless stated, averages apply nationwide for UK and Eire.

September 2011

Slightly warmer than average.

Drier than average.

October 2011

On the average for temperature.

On the average for rainfall.

November 2011

On the average for temperature.

Drier than average.

December 2011

Colder than average.

Wetter than average.

January 2012

Decidedly colder than average.

Wetter than average.

February 2012

Decidedly colder than average.

Wetter than average.
I looked up what decidedly meant and it means definitely or undoubtedly
I realy hope this winter is going to be as cold as everyone thinks and forecasts it to be

Just a note of caution, the long term predictions dished out by Positive Weather Solutions change quicker than a prostitute changes her knickers!

I would not much put much weight behind them. Although I think myself this winter will be colder than average and could see a return to snow/sub zero temps, that is only my "gut" feeling, a feeling more likely based on hope and desire rather than anything tangible.

We have to still bear in mind that the winters over the past 15 years in Irleand have been milder than average - there is still a good chance of such a winter occurring again this year, though my own hope is for a real snowfest!