Winter 2011/2012

Musicman2000

pauldry wrote: »

i dont forsee a cold january of 2010 proportions at all.

cold and showery with a west to northwest flow keeping temperatures in single figures but because of a lot of wind only minima of minus 5 or 6 during the month.

I would say the snow will hold off this winter only falling on one or two brief occasions in rapid moving low pressure systems.

flow is too mobile this winter with high to the south and lows rolling off it to the north

For the next 2 weeks Paul, yes you are dead right about the mobile set up, After that there is a trend showing for colder conditions, and hopefully another strat warming will kick in and knock the vortex out of place.

WolfeIRE

Latest GFS has the cold/ mild/ cold/mild setup continuing right into the third week of January. The colder periods will bring mixed wintry showers at worst, while bands of rain will cross the country during transitions from cold to mild. Winds will be sw during milder interludes and w-nw during colder spells. The jetstream will continue to dominate our weather for the next three weeks at least.

tylercollins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ1R8Q7co-c

Su Campu

Simon Keeling - the welcome antithesis to Mark Vogan et al.

garyha

Su Campu wrote: »

Simon Keeling - the welcome antithesis to Mark Vogan et al.

That's very unfair on mark vogan, he doesn't charge for his forecasts and posts daily updates on how he sees things, he's also happy to admit when he's been wrong but at least he justifies his statements and isn't asking for anything in return, he's just an enthusiast like a lot on here who does it as a hobby. In fairness to him he did a good a job last year as anyone.

Piers corbyn on the other hand is a different kettle of fish, he spins everything and is a spammer. He charges a lot for his forecasts which seem to be hit and miss at best, he also doesnt admit when he got it wrong but looks for other excuses such as filaments on the sun or other rubbish.

tylercollins

Su Campu wrote: »

Simon Keeling - the welcome antithesis to Mark Vogan et al.

I'm just going to stop posting videos form youtube now :P

Elmer Blooker

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

This is the sort of chart I remember from the snowless pre 08 winters - An Azores high extending into Europe and Atlantic depressions as far north as the Arctic circle, in other words a +NAO with the jet stream obviously well to the north of us.
I think March may well be the coldest month of the "winter" going on past observations.

Above 24th Nov: Well five weeks on and my winter forecast seems to be accurate so far and it will be even more accurate come Jan and Feb I'm afraid.
All the previous very mild Christmases I've seen mentioned lately like 1920, 1974 and 1988 were followed by mild winters.
We'll just have to get over it and accept that this winter (and not 09-10, 10-11) is our normal uninteresting climate.
* another very cheerful post by E.B.

BEASTERLY

Perhaps no major snow this year will be good for us weather junkies.

As Mr.Kavanagh said himself:

Through a chink too wide there comes in no wonder

Can anybody honestly say they were just as excited when snow fell on the 6th of January or 20th of December 2010 as they were on February 2nd or December 17th 2009. It was still brilliant, it was just better when it wasn't the norm.

je55ie

Thought this was nice, cheer everyone up and stop the bickering

http://www.elion.ee/docs/joulukaart/eng/

Move or delete if its in wrong thread

Joe Public

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Above 24th Nov: Well five weeks on and my winter forecast seems to be accurate so far and it will be even more accurate come Jan and Feb I'm afraid.
All the previous very mild Christmases I've seen mentioned lately like 1920, 1974 and 1988 were followed by mild winters.
We'll just have to get over it and accept that this winter (and not 09-10, 10-11) is our normal uninteresting climate.
* another very cheerful post by E.B.

You've got to take this quote into consideration

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I don't think it's possible to do a long range forecast no matter who's doing it!
The UK Met Office, with all the technology at their disposal stopped doing them as it's just not possible to predict the weather months in advance.
That's my opinion anyway!

Elmer Blooker

Joe Public wrote: »

You've got to take this quote into consideration

ok then, my prediction made on nov 24 is correct so far. I saw a pattern developing that was looking ominous. ie. an intense high pressure to the south pushing the jet stream unusually far north and my experience of years of weather watching told me that this would persist for many weeks - til feb at least with a "sting in the tail" in March.
I still think long range forecasts are impossible, for example stuff like "becoming colder in the third week of January as high pressure builds over Scandinavia"

edit; another one of my "predictions" On May 4th last I didn't think the summer would be a good one because April was so warm
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=72022597

jirafa

Weather Services International: Northern Europe Generally Mild for Remainder of Winter
Below-Normal Temperatures Confined to Parts of Southern Europe during the January-March Period

Andover, MA, December 19, 2011 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (January-March) to average lower than normal across parts of France and Iberia with above-normal temperatures common elsewhere, most notably across the Nordic region.

“Although December has been fairly cold across the UK, most of Europe has seen a continuation of the very mild temperatures that have been the trademark of the heating season, so far. The pattern has been dominated by the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is characterized by a very strong polar vortex that effectively traps the very cold Arctic air at high latitudes,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “This pattern is a reversal from that found during the last couple of winters, when a strong negative phase of the NAO resulted in very cold winters. At this time, it appears that this milder, positive phase of the NAO will generally rule the day for much of the remainder of winter, although certainly not to the magnitude that we’ve seen recently. This means that any below-normal temperatures will generally be confined to parts of southern Europe during the remainder of winter, while above-normal temperatures will be predominant across the UK, northern Europe and the Nordic region.”

In January, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK* – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland* – Colder than normal, except Iberia

In February, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

In March, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except France/Benelux
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook on 23 January.



:mad::mad::(:(:(

Birdnuts

Great - no doubt the below averge temps will return just in time for summer:rolleyes:

Lucreto

Birdnuts wrote: »

Great - no doubt the below averge temps will return just in time for summer:rolleyes:

Yes I would like a nice cool summer even cooler than last year hopefully.

desolate sun

God this thread is making for some depressing reading. I was so busy over Christmas I didn't have time to dwell on it not being white, but now I have a bit of time on my hands, I was looking forward to the promise of a White winter.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that any chance of snow WON'T be coming from an easterly direction. We will probably get that wet excuse for snow that's gone by lunchtime. I hope I'm wrong. I must re read MT's forecast to see what be thinks.

Beasterly I see what you mean but I have to disagree with you. I was just as excited - if not more- by the sight of snow the second time around. Seeing it again made me realise how lucky I was.
I have this terrible fear that those two wonderful winters were a blip and we are not in the middle of a mini ice age. I sound so pessimistic and normally I'm not. But we need an easterly to deliver the goods and the talk here seems to be on the contrary.

I need my snow fix! Can't wait til next winter for it!

bb1234567

desolate sun wrote: »

God this thread is making for some depressing reading. I was so busy over Christmas I didn't have time to dwell on it not being white, but now I have a bit of time on my hands, I was looking forward to the promise of a White winter.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that any chance of snow WON'T be coming from an easterly direction. We will probably get that wet excuse for snow that's gone by lunchtime. I hope I'm wrong. I must re read MT's forecast to see what be thinks.

Beasterly I see what you mean but I have to disagree with you. I was just as excited - if not more- by the sight of snow the second time around. Seeing it again made me realise how lucky I was.
I have this terrible fear that those two wonderful winters were a blip and we are not in the middle of a mini ice age. I sound so pessimistic and normally I'm not. But we need an easterly to deliver the goods and the talk here seems to be on the contrary.

I need my snow fix! Can't wait til next winter for it!

+1 exactly what I was going to say!

derekon

desolate sun wrote: »

God this thread is making for some depressing reading. I was so busy over Christmas I didn't have time to dwell on it not being white, but now I have a bit of time on my hands, I was looking forward to the promise of a White winter.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that any chance of snow WON'T be coming from an easterly direction. We will probably get that wet excuse for snow that's gone by lunchtime. I hope I'm wrong. I must re read MT's forecast to see what be thinks.

Beasterly I see what you mean but I have to disagree with you. I was just as excited - if not more- by the sight of snow the second time around. Seeing it again made me realise how lucky I was.
I have this terrible fear that those two wonderful winters were a blip and we are not in the middle of a mini ice age. I sound so pessimistic and normally I'm not. But we need an easterly to deliver the goods and the talk here seems to be on the contrary.

I need my snow fix! Can't wait til next winter for it!

Here here!

However lads, it aint looking good with all this talk of a mild winter and the NAO and the AO staying positive. This won't deliver and easterly. Simple as. I think our thoughts should now turn to winter 2012/2013. Not a hissy fit - just a pragmatic outlook.

D

DOCARCH

derekon wrote: »

I think our thoughts should now turn to winter 2012/2013. Not a hissy fit - just a pragmatic outlook.

Once again! It's only the end of December!!! The (statistically) coldest part of the winter has yet to come (i.e. January and February).

If it was the end of February, I would agree with your sentiments!

only one

Roll on febrrrrrrruary

derekon

DOCARCH wrote: »

Once again! It's only the end of December!!! The (statistically) coldest part of the winter has yet to come (i.e. January and February).

If it was the end of February, I would agree with your sentiments!

With all due respect Docarch, this is a forum where people are free to express their views. Less of the tone, please

I was merely stating the fact that FI charts up to mid January show no sign of cold and the AO and NAO remain positive (I understand FI charts are subject to change)

Speaking of views, how do you see the rest of the winter panning out?

Also, if as you state above, it was the end February - I would be seriously concerned as the winter in Ireland would then be over! The sun would be too strong!

D

DOCARCH

All I'm doing is expressing my view! My view is do not write off winter at the end of December!

Honestly I would not read too much into the charts anything over 10 days. FI charts are exactly that - fantasy. All it takes is a couple of runs and it could be all change. Also bear in mind it's holiday time too for the organisations that produce the charts.

Bear in mind last year, that the charts only had the cold spell at the end of November nailed within a couple of days (maybe a week) of the cold spell starting so things can change quite quickly.

How do I see the rest of the winter panning out? I honestly don't know. God only know! But one thngs is that I would loose all hope based on looking at FI charts (i.e. charts for 2 to 3 weeks time).

Su Campu

DOCARCH wrote: »

Also bear in mind it's holiday time too for the organisations that produce the charts.

The charts are run automatically 24/7, 365, with no human input.

But I do agree with what you say. The snow tantrums that are beginning to appear are getting a little annoying at this stage.

DOCARCH

Su Campu wrote: »

The charts are run automatically 24/7, 365, with no human input.

I sort of new that (that they are automated) but I sometimes consider all runs over Christmas to be pub runs!

Su Campu wrote: »

But I do agree with what you say. The snow tantrums that are beginning to appear are getting a little annoying at this stage.

That's my issue is that I am not for one minute suggesting we are going to get some sort of arctic seige but people suggesting that winter is over is just daft!

desolate sun

Su Campu wrote: »

But I do agree with what you say. The snow tantrums that are beginning to appear are getting a little annoying at this stage.

Apologies. I would be one of those tantrummers! I haven't read all the posts so was unaware of this. It's just as a snow lover, it's getting frustrating not seeing any sign of snow. In the real world, I don't know anyone who loves snow as much as me (bar the odd passing person who likes it - but no one on a regular basis) so it's refreshing to see posts by proper snow lovers.

Maybe there should be a thread for snow lovers to moan and leave these threads free!

derekon

DOCARCH wrote: »

All I'm doing is expressing my view! My view is do not write off winter at the end of December!

Honestly I would not read too much into the charts anything over 10 days. FI charts are exactly that - fantasy. All it takes is a couple of runs and it could be all change. Also bear in mind it's holiday time too for the organisations that produce the charts.

Bear in mind last year, that the charts only had the cold spell at the end of November nailed within a couple of days (maybe a week) of the cold spell starting so things can change quite quickly.

How do I see the rest of the winter panning out? I honestly don't know. God only know! But one thngs is that I would loose all hope based on looking at FI charts (i.e. charts for 2 to 3 weeks time).

That is fair enough Docarch - I was throwing a bit of a snow tantrum due to the lack of any decent cold. The last couple of years have had us spoiled

I do take on board your point regarding the FI charts - they can change from day to day.

D

mike65

desolate sun wrote: »

Maybe there should be a thread for snow lovers to moan and leave these threads free!

A hearty endorsement from me! Fecking snow warriors!

Harps

The GFS op run (black line) is as usual a mild outlier so I wouldn't read too much into what its saying beyond a week, its continually wanted to build high pressure for the past 2 weeks but its pushed back on every run

derekon

The NAO appears to be heading in the right direction - down!

D

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=8811581&l=250a3f692a&id=368502778051

darkman2

I don't see any issues with the forecast in the other thread.


Hail, sleet and snow showers on Monday and Tuesday with temporary accumulations in western and northern parts. Frost and ice possible too towards the east and south. That's the start of next week and plenty of potential in the following days too and beyond.


bbl

Pangea

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Can anybody honestly say they were just as excited when snow fell on the 6th of January or 20th of December 2010 as they were on February 2nd or December 17th 2009. It was still brilliant, it was just better when it wasn't the norm.

Hell yeah I can. :cool: