Winter 2011/2012

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

I don't see any issues with the forecast in the other thread.


Hail, sleet and snow showers on Monday and Tuesday with temporary accumulations in western and northern parts. Frost and ice possible too towards the east and south. That's the start of next week and plenty of potential in the following days too and beyond.


bbl

Can I ask what factors you take into account when going for these snow forecasts because to me you're a serious ott cold ramper? I can maybe see some sleet showers, with snow above around 150-200 m for the northwestern half of the country during Sunday night and early Monday, but to me your over enthusiastic and way too keen on starting headline threads before anyone else. What do you look for when deciding precipitation type and height, or do you just see blue on the 500 geopotential charts and say that means snow? You seem to go by T850 but to me you don't take into account what can happen to the boundary layer below that.

And I'm not having a go, just wanting a discussion.

bb1234567

We need a few cold rampers who use big sciency.weather words and post charts and statistics to keep the hopes of snowlover alive!:p I'll take anything I can get now, been so depressing on the snowfront this winter! I'd have lost all hope in this winter for cold and snow a long time ago if it werent for the few like darkman who big up even the smallest bits of hope for snow.:D Darkman threads always make me happy no matter how unlikely they are to happen!

Rebelbrowser

bb1234567 wrote: »

We need a few cold rampers who use big sciency.weather words and post charts and statistics to keep the hopes of snowlover alive!:p I'll take anything I can get now, been so depressing on the snowfront this winter! I'd have lost all hope in this winter for cold and snow a long time ago if it werent for the few like darkman who big up even the smallest bits of hope for snow.:D Darkman threads always make me happy no matter how unlikely they are to happen!

Hear hear!

I suspect DM2 is just an optimistic guy. I looked at the boards footie thread (rarely visit it) last September after the Russia match (but before Slovakia lost to Armenia) to see what the various permutations were for the remaining matches. All the threads were full of pessimism except for one a guy had started saying we were going to qualify (I'm paraphrasing). And when I looked at who started it I had to laugh when I saw the username Darkman2!

So just as I'm off to Poznan on 8 June on foot of that DM2 prediction, I hope to be under a foot of snow on foot of some other DM2 prediction later this winter!

Elmo5

Su Campu wrote: »

Can I ask what factors you take into account when going for these snow forecasts because to me you're a serious ott cold ramper? I can maybe see some sleet showers, with snow above around 150-200 m for the northwestern half of the country during Sunday night and early Monday, but to me your over enthusiastic and way too keen on starting headline threads before anyone else. What do you look for when deciding precipitation type and height, or do you just see blue on the 500 geopotential charts and say that means snow? You seem to go by T850 but to me you don't take into account what can happen to the boundary layer below that.

And I'm not having a go, just wanting a discussion.

have to say Su, for a mod, I am becoming increasing annoyed. There are other people in the country besides you and your altitude! Not everyone is east coast and a bit inland. Have a bit of responsibility and think outside your area. So what if the snow does not affect you, but it might affect other people in the northwest above 200m for example!

Wild Bill

Elmo5 wrote: »

There are other people in the country besides you and your altitude!

Hmmm.....I'm at 120m asl myself....

Su Campu

Elmo5 wrote: »

have to say Su, for a mod, I am becoming increasing annoyed. There are other people in the country besides you and your altitude! Not everyone is east coast and a bit inland. Have a bit of responsibility and think outside your area. So what if the snow does not affect you, but it might affect other people in the northwest above 200m for example!

Where did I mention where I live? I was talking about the whole country and gave an estimation of my estimation of the snowline in the north. Read my posts properly next time.

Elmo5

It's in your location same as mine. I really think you need to bear in mind the entire country and elevations before coming down on people like a ton of bricks and I did read your post properly as I always do.

Su Campu

Elmo5 wrote: »

It's in your location same as mine. I really think you need to bear in mind the entire country and elevations before coming down on people like a ton of bricks and I did read your post properly as I always do.

Sorry, so if I have my location on my profile then it means I don't care about the rest of the country? This is getting ridiculous at this stage.

kittyn

Wild Bill wrote: »

Elmo5 wrote: »

There are other people in the country besides you and your altitude!

Hmmm.....I'm at 120m asl myself....

Hey Wild Bill are you sure your not higher than that? I'm not too far from you ( going by your pics ) and I'm at 148m asl?

Kit

Wild Bill

Both of you have Celbridge!

Wild Bill

kittyn wrote: »

Hey Wild Bill are you sure your not higher than that? I'm not too far from you ( going by your pics ) and I'm at 148m asl?

Kit

Well - if I stand on my tippy-toes!

Seriously - I'm near the Glencairn Luas and about the same altitude; just under 400ft.

The ground only starts to really rise from the Enniskerry road west.

kittyn

Wild Bill wrote: »

kittyn wrote: »

Hey Wild Bill are you sure your not higher than that? I'm not too far from you ( going by your pics ) and I'm at 148m asl?

Kit

Well - if I stand on my tippy-toes!

Seriously - I'm near the Glencairn Luas and about the same altitude; just under 400ft.

The ground only starts to really rise from the Enniskerry road west.

Just sent you a PM as I don't wanna derail the thread

jimmy.d

lets face it lads darkman said it was on the cards its not fi his last tread was closed because he was right snow for new years eve and new years day above 300mtr face the fact and dont be downing the man hint hint

Birdnuts

Another hatefull ECM this morning:( - the extent to which the Polar vortex is bottled up over Arctic regions is quiet remarkeable and something I haven't seen for a good few years. Reminds me of horrible winters like 97/98,99/00 and 01/02 etc.!!

bb1234567

so how high would you have to be to see snow over the next few days?
im going to dunshaughlin ,co meath for a few days and thats definitely a good bit higher up and further inland than dublin.:) hope i see some snow!

Su Campu

bb1234567 wrote: »

so how high would you have to be to see snow over the next few days?
im going to dunshaughlin ,co meath for a few days and thats definitely a good bit higher up and further inland than dublin.:) hope i see some snow!

See the other thread.

derekon

The GFS now seems to be indicating a very cold plunge of air down over us from around the 14th January 2012 - way out in FI however at least they are starting to show some cold!

D

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=204

Sponge Bob

jimmy.d wrote: »

lets face it lads darkman said it was on the cards its not fi his last tread was closed because he was right snow for new years eve and new years day above 300mtr face the fact and dont be downing the man hint hint

I don't think he ever specifically did, to be fair, and anyway....the facts are a tad inconvenient....as indeed they were at 6am.


LATEST IRISH WEATHER REPORTS
ON 31-DEC-2011 for 16:00 Location Wind Weather Temp Humidity Rain Pressure Dir Speed(Kts) oC (%) (mm) (hPa)
BALLYHAISE(A) SW 12 Gust 23 LIGHT RAIN 11 98 0.1 1000
BELMULLET SW 16 CLOUDY 10 90 0.0 999
CASEMENT SW 19 LIGHT DRIZZLE 12 94 Trace 1002
CLAREMORRIS(A) W 11 Gust 25 - n/a - 10 87 1.1 1001
CORK AIRPORT SW 15 RECENT DRIZZLE 11 100 0.1 1006
DUBLIN AIRPORT SW 14 Gust 25 LIGHT DRIZZLE 12 94 Trace 1002
FINNER CAMP(A) W 21 RAIN SHOWER 11 89 0.1 999
GURTEEN(A) SW 16 RECENT DRIZZLE 12 93 0.1 1004
JOHNSTOWN CASTLE(A) SW 16 Gust 27 FOG 11 99 0.0 1006
KNOCK AIRPORT(P) W 18 Gust 28 RECENT SHOWER 9 95 0.2 1001
MACE HEAD(A) SW 18 MIST 10 90 0.0 1002
MALIN HEAD(A) W 22 CLOUDY 11 92 0.0 996
MULLINGAR(A) SW 11 LIGHT RAIN 11 95 0.5 1002

.....

VALENTIA SW 11 Gust 26 CLOUDY 11 95 0.0 1007

pistolpetes11

Im half thinking of throwing a few bits on the BBQ tonight thats how tropical it is out at the moment , a slight bit damp but its so warm out there.

jirafa

No Sign of Prolonged Cold – January Outlook

I hope everyone had an amazing Christmas, despite the lack of snowfall! The new year is now upon us, so what type of weather can we expect to see over the next couple of weeks?

If you’re a cold and snow fan, then unfortunately there’s currently nothing in the models to suggest any prolonged cold or snow, despite what some other forecasters are saying. In fact, what we’re likely to see through the first week of January is a mixed bag of whether, generally cool with spells of rain and severe gales, particularly across Scotland and Northern England, this will be followed by a short period of colder weather which may produce some snowfall across higher areas in the North towards the middle/end of next week.

Beyond that however, there’s a signal for High Pressure to develop in the Atlantic, extending across the United Kingdom keeping things slightly above average, and somewhat drier through the first half of the month. Lets see what some of the models say;


The chart above shows the NAO/AO forecast as we move into the new year and first part of January, the NAO is forecasted to fall into a neutral/weak negative state which does indicate High Pressure in the Atlantic, however the signal is for a Western Based -NAO and this means High Pressure will be situated close to, or over the UK. The AO is forecasted to move more into neutral/weakly positive territory, but with the Polar Stratosphere Temperatures still way below average, we’re unlikely to see much change in the Polar Vortex, as can be seen on the chart below.


The chart below shows us the 500hPa anomly charts


The chart above shows that there’s a strong signal, and agreement with High Pressure situated somewhere to the South or South-West of the United Kingdom, and Low Pressure to the North, this will generally bring drier and milder conditions, particularly across Southern and Central areas, further North it’ll be cooler with rain from time to time. Now we’ve covered some of the science behind it, here’s the forecast;

January Outlook

As we move through the first week of January it’ll become slightly cooler with a spell of wet and very windy weather across Northern parts of the United Kingdom, further South not quite as windy but we will see spells of rain moving through, colder air will flow down behind a deep area of Low Pressure which may bring some snowfall to higher areas across the country, as we move into the second week and beyond, the signal is for High Pressure to develop across the United Kingdom bringing drier and milder conditions across Southern and Central areas, but cooler and perhaps damp weather across more Northern Areas. High Pressure may shift around from time to time to give snow to higher ground in the North, but there’s currently no signal within the models to suggest any severe, prolonged cold weather for January.

http://ukweather.wordpress.com/2011/12/30/no-sign-of-prolonged-cold-january-outlook/

:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::(:(:(:(:(:(

Sponge Bob

Excellent Monthly forecast that Jirafa . I think a thread devoted to monthly forecasts of that overall quality would be a nice addition all year round...not just in winter.

Look forward to more. Well done again.

tzfrantic

hold on to hope cold lovers The Sudden Stratospheric Warming thread is showing some possible cold snap

Birdnuts

Most of Europe is winter-free - temps were even above freezing today on the shore of the Arctic Ocean in NW Russia @12Z:eek:

je55ie

Hope its ok to post this here, just want to say

Happy New Year to everyone.

Hope is great and

brings some snow

jirafa

WW January 2012 long range forecast & December 2011 retrospective:

Key points for the weather in the period include

-Temperature- overall mean (CET for England); slightly above average (+0.9C)
-UK rainfall –near or slightly above average (115% of the average)
-UK sunshine –near average (105% of the average)
-Winds- near average strength & predominantly W’ly
-Frost and snow – near or rather below average


In week one from the 1st-7th January it seems likely a rather chilly W’ly flow will become established at first across all parts with the risk of snow over hills in the north in particular and night frosts. Certainly a quite unsettled period as well as by the 3rd a very deep low pressure area looks likely to run across Scotland bringing some heavy rain in the north west and severe gales with gusts to 70-80mph in exposed locations, there may well be gales almost anywhere in fact. Blustery showers following on the 4th wintry and squally in the north for a time, as winds abate. More fronts bringing showery rain for all on the 5th and 6th in a blustery westerly flow then as high pressure develops to the SW and then to the south it will start to settle down by the week’s end, in the south though still some showery rain at times in the north, wintry at times in Scotland, more especially over the Scottish mountains.

Temperatures by day near average in the south & east and mild at midweek for a time but generally a bit colder in the north and north west overall, though no especially cold nights seem likely. Rainfall near average in the south & east & possibly central areas as well of the UK but rather above average further north across Scotland & N Ireland. Sunshine near or slightly below average for most southern & eastern parts but perhaps below average further north.

In week two, from the 8th-14th January high pressure will likely lie to the south giving a few misty or foggy nights and perhaps a touch of frost but fronts working east in the north are likely to bring more in the way of cloud and rain here as deep low pressure runs to the north of Scotland. Another low will probably work east by the 10th and bring colder polar air in its wake for a time with wintry showers for a time across Scotland.. Further south generally rather milder with rain and showers at times, driest in the SE under the influence of continental high pressure and then milder everywhere midweek onwards in a more W’ly flow and breezy generally, perhaps local gales in the exposed NW. A bit colder here in the far north for a time later in the week with some hill snow again but nothing especially chilly for mid January.

Temperatures by day somewhat above average and locally quite mild in the south but generally a bit colder in the north and a few days will be cold. Some frosts by night here but nothing very serious or long lasting. Rainfall staying slightly below average in the south & east & probably central areas as well of the UK but near average further north across Scotland & N Ireland. Sunshine near or slightly below average for most northern parts but perhaps a little above average in the south east & east.

By week three from the 15th-21st January there doesn’t seem a great deal of change likely from the unsettled rather mild weather for most with a mild upper W’ly flow predominating across most parts bringing some rain and showers across the north & west especially, and possibly giving a fair amount of rain here. The east and SE may stay more under the influence of high pressure in this period but there’s a risk of rain and showers at times here too and it seems by midweek there may be a trend towards a colder spell for a time as low pressure develops across the mid Atlantic and runs south east into the North Sea and high pressure develops to the west over the Atlantic. This will bring wintry showers across some areas more esp in the north & north west for a few days before high pressure runs east from the Atlantic and quietens things down for a time. There may be some moderate night frosts inland in this period.

Not especially cold anywhere on the whole at first but equally not too mild either away from the far south west; the nights should not be too cold, although local frosts are possible in inland areas under the influence of high pressure but colder after midweek everywhere with frosts by night. Rainfall will likely be near or slightly above average for the north & west but elsewhere slightly below average, sunshine will likely be near or a little above average in most southern parts but slightly below average in the northwest.

The last week through to the month’s end from the 22nd-31st January is –as ever –uncertain; so we are suggesting- mainly based on climatology and patterning- a rather more unsettled theme is possible for many parts as high pressure moves away south east again early in the week. Quite deep areas of low pressure may then develop to the west and run east and NE bringing gales with rain & showers across all parts again, these wintry in the north and later giving a rather strong and chilly NW‘ly flow for a time. The south & east may be drier both earlier & later on in weeks 4/5 as well and see some mist, fog and frost by night inland. The north may see some quite wintry weather for a time though in this period, especially over hills.

Near or a little below average temperatures on the whole though the nights will not be too chilly either. Rainfall will be near average overall but perhaps slightly above average in the west and NW and slightly below in the SE. Sunshine may be near or slightly below average in the west & NW though perhaps nearer average in the east & SE.

Overall through the month, temperatures generally near or slightly above average in most parts night and day. Sunshine overall should be a little above average in the south & east with the west and the north doing rather less well overall, where it will stay nearer average. Rainfall generally near average in southern & eastern areas but the NW in particular probably rather closer to or slightly above average. Frost and snow will be generally near average in the north but rather below average in the south and east.

Sea temperatures seem likely to be slightly above average for most eastern and southern coastal areas but becoming about average around northern & western coasts and slightly below in places with soil temperatures generally above average for most parts initially but nearer average in the north after mid month and soil moisture near average for most western & northern areas, though still rather below average across SE and eastern England.


http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id18.html

Birdnuts

jirafa wrote: »

http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id18.html

Sounds like even more of a yawnfest then last years effort:(

davidsr20

I'll stick with mt he was spot on last year

Missus called me earlier today and told me her sisters heating is broken! I've lost count of the number of times I've told her that it only comes on when the thermostat says it's cold enough, right now it isn't.

She still stacks up the stove and wonders why the tank is boiling. :rolleyes:

Birdnuts

Deleted User wrote: »

Missus called me earlier today and told me her sisters heating is broken! I've lost count of the number of times I've told her that it only comes on when the thermostat says it's cold enough, right now it isn't.

She still stacks up the stove and wonders why the tank is boiling. :rolleyes:

To quote a former Taosieach " Thats Wimmin for ya" :pac:;)

jirafa

Second half of Winter - Long Range Forecast - Updated 27th December 2011
December has been an unsettled month with temperatures running a little above average - helped along by a particularly mild Christmas period. The winter forecast points to a colder second half of winter, and currently our long range forecasting model is in agreement with this:

January
Another fairly mixed month of weather is expected in January with low pressure often fairly close by to the UK meaning rainfall totals will be close to or above average in many areas. Winds from a northerly direction at times are likely to mean some colder shots at times, with temperatures close to or slightly cooler than the norm overall.


February
There is currently a good deal of uncertainty over the outlook for February with a number of contradictory indicators in play at this time. What this particular update shows is a colder scenario with easterly winds potentially playing a significant part during the month keeping temperatures and rainfall below average.


March
Confidence really falls away at this point, but current expectations are that March will be drier than average with temperatures close to or slightly warmer than the seasonal norm.



http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

PS Happy New Year To All....No matter,,what weather we may get.:D:D;);)