Winter 2011/2012

Lucreto

I was born during that snow storm.

My parents had to abandon the car part way to the hospital.

There has been snow in the blood ever since.

lolie

Talkin about snow of 1947 on Joe duffy show now. Radio 1. Interesting stuff

Elmer Blooker

only one wrote: »

What was jan 87 like?

Do you really want to know? It was a big big let down.
It was an amazing 3 or 4 day easterly blast but it went out with a whimper.
I can clearly remember how disappointed I was when I heard the drainpipes and gutters dripping after a brilliant all day snowfall. It all turned to slush and disappeared very quickly.
edit: I would be almost certain that the photo posted by leahyl was 1982 and not 1987.
I dont think the snow was that deep in '87 and it wasn't around long enough to photograph

mcriot29

Looking at AO today at 14 days out , still looks very bad for any long term freeze also models keep showing any real cold just missing ireland hitting east uk at times , i feel jan will be a big let down for us cold lovers, however i think feb maybe the big month for cold snow and ice,some main forecasters seem to think a big ao nao flip near end of jan into feb.it clear at this point vogan and piers are no better at forecasting then any on this forum in fact really bad and i for one will not bother with there wish forecasts no more .

leahyl

only one wrote: »

Lol looks lovely! Fingers crossed for the south east what ever happens

That's what came up though when I searched for January 1987 snow :eek::eek: - but I think that picture was taken in England:(:P

blackius

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Do you really want to know? It was a big big let down.
It was an amazing 3 or 4 day easterly blast but it went out with a whimper.
I can clearly remember how disappointed I was when I heard the drainpipes and gutters dripping after a brilliant all day snowfall. It all turned to slush and disappeared very quickly.
edit: I would be almost certain that the photo posted by leahyl was 1982 and not 1987.
I dont think the snow was that deep in '87 and it wasn't around long enough to photograph

That wasn't the case in Ballinteer,snow knee deep and no busses up there.
48a went as far as dundrum.
Also it snowed in showers all week in Dublin with a spell of heavy snow all day on the friday.
The thaw came on sunday.
The train home through rathdrum that friday was like a journey in lapland.
The avoca river was frozen over in arklow harbour with snow lying on it.
Drifts on our lane were about 3 to 4 feet deep.

In 1982 the drifts were 10ft high and more by the way at sea level just outside arklow.
Up on the hills,they went to the tops of the tree's in the woods,thats 20 to 40ft high folks.

Elmer Blooker

blackius wrote: »

That wasn't the case in Ballinteer,snow knee deep and no busses up there.
48a went as far as dundrum.
Also it snowed in showers all week in Dublin with a spell of heavy snow all day on the friday.
The thaw came on sunday.

I have to disagree with you there. It snowed all day Thursday the 15th and it started to thaw that very evening.
http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/jan87.pdf

blackius

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I have to disagree with you there. It snowed all day Thursday the 15th and it started to thaw that very evening.
http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/jan87.pdf

That may have been the case at Dublin airport
But I can tell you what I described above was on the day I went home from Ballinteer [I was in UCD at the time]including the train journey.It looks indeed have been the thursday not the friday.It sits in my mind as a friday because UCD closed and all country students were scrambling to get home.
I can absolutely say without doubt that it was Sunday before a thaw set in around Arklow.
Now that you mention it,I do remember going back to Dublin on the sunday night and being shocked at how much had thawed there compared with home.
There was still a good bit around Ballinteer though.

By the way if anyone wishes to view photographs of the snow around here at that time including a frozen snow covered Avoca river,just pm me

I remain of the view though,that the single best or worst depending on viewpoints snow event in my living memory was actually nov-Dec 10 .
Thats because it had snow on the ground here for a full month which beats the 10ft drifts of '82 as that snow lasted only 10 days before the rain came.
It took a lot of rain to clear away the drifts though.They were still there wilted 2 weeks later

pistolpetes11

Is it possible to have sustained cold in Ireland/UK with Positive AO/ NAO , Which is more important to us AO or NAO ?

blackius

I've not looked at that.
Check the data for february '91 -that one lasted a week or 10 days and see if the NAO or AO was pos or Neg.
That was a sustained Easterly blasting in from siberia via moscow.

Wild Bill

blackius wrote: »

It looks indeed have been the thursday not the friday.It sits in my mind as a friday because UCD closed and all country students were scrambling to get home.
I can absolutely say without doubt that it was Sunday before a thaw set in around Arklow.
Now that you mention it,I do remember going back to Dublin on the sunday night and being shocked at how much had thawed there compared with home.
There was still a good bit around Ballinteer though.

Yep. it was a three day outbreak of extraordinary cold and snow in an otherwise mild winter.

Remember it well; one image sticks in my mind, the RTE weather chart for (probably the second day) showing a max temp of -1c in Valentia with lower values everywhere else (I think max was only -3c in Dub on the coldest day.

In the middle of a blizzard mid-afternoon the third day (must have been a Saturday - have notes on this taken at the time - can't put hand on them right now) which dumped nearly a foot of snow on Bray, the temp rose above zero and the snow turned to drizzle.

Within a couple of days the snow was gone - though not as quickly as a month of snow disappeared on 27th December last year!

Redsunset

Feb 91 AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) Ranging from neutral to negative
YR...M .D.. Index
1991 2 1 -1.081
1991 2 2 0.440
1991 2 3 0.682
1991 2 4 0.201
1991 2 5 -0.375
1991 2 6 -0.778
1991 2 7 -1.267
1991 2 8 -2.045
1991 2 9 -2.671
1991 2 10 -2.651
1991 2 11 -2.519
1991 2 12 -2.522
1991 2 13 -2.392
1991 2 14 -1.754
1991 2 15 -1.312
1991 2 16 -1.371
1991 2 17 -1.287
1991 2 18 -0.383
1991 2 19 0.354
1991 2 20 0.617
1991 2 21 0.236
1991 2 22 0.095
1991 2 23 0.531
1991 2 24 0.933
1991 2 25 0.837
1991 2 26 -0.137
1991 2 27 -1.478
1991 2 28 -2.562

FEB 91 NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION)

YR...M. D.. Index Mostly neutral to slightly positive
1991 2 1 1.343
1991 2 2 1.452
1991 2 3 1.317
1991 2 4 1.240
1991 2 5 0.870
1991 2 6 0.625
1991 2 7 0.465
1991 2 8 0.354
1991 2 9 0.440
1991 2 10 0.458
1991 2 11 0.324
1991 2 12 0.188
1991 2 13 0.101
1991 2 14 0.037
1991 2 15 0.093
1991 2 16 0.144
1991 2 17 0.285
1991 2 18 0.685
1991 2 19 0.932
1991 2 20 0.956
1991 2 21 0.735
1991 2 22 0.643
1991 2 23 0.750
1991 2 24 0.801
1991 2 25 0.938
1991 2 26 1.020
1991 2 27 1.128
1991 2 28 1.030

So looking at the data it appears that the AO played a large role in that cold spell. AO at its most negative from 8th to 13th Feb 91.
It needs to be at least -2 or more to have an effect it seems when the NAO is not playing ball to give any real chance of cold to these parts.

Elmer Blooker

above freezing from the Atlantic to Moscow - shocking !!

John.Icy

mcriot29 wrote: »

Looking at AO today at 14 days out , still looks very bad for any long term freeze also models keep showing any real cold just missing ireland hitting east uk at times , i feel jan will be a big let down for us cold lovers, however i think feb maybe the big month for cold snow and ice,some main forecasters seem to think a big ao nao flip near end of jan into feb.it clear at this point vogan and piers are no better at forecasting then any on this forum in fact really bad and i for one will not bother with there wish forecasts no more .

https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/290351/187171.gif

Funny, I could have sworn this chart showed something more promising. Those 14 days AO bar chart one's, arn't that great, they change alot from run to run almost, and don't even make sense half the time. It shows going negtive at dayy 7, but on the 10 day one, that's not there and it goes back up. 7 day looks promising, and that's as far as I think should be given much attention to, as the rest is just for fun half the time.

Also, what models are you looking at? It's only in the last day or two that cold has been toyed with in the models, and at that, it's all well into gaga land. So saying the models are showing it missing Ireland, at this stage, is frankly inaccurate IMO.

blackius

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

above freezing from the Atlantic to Moscow - shocking !!

Ah yes but those -20's and below on the top right flood west and south like bush wild fires through a forest once the atlantic ceases to push east and it will cease.
It would take about 5 days for Brussels to start shivering when that door opens,the relentless march west overcoming poor little Ireland by day 7.
The great white siberian army just awaits it's orders...

Trotter

I do this to myself every year.. Checking every GFS run and building myself up to online shopping for crates of tinned soup.

Then one morning.. Around the 144 run.. It all goes away like the sound a deflating balloon makes streaking across the living room followed by the tears of a child screaming..

"How can that be downgraded?!? I'm
watching it all week!"

jimmy.d

the snow queen will blow them across

TheMilkyPirate

jimmy.d wrote: »

the snow queen will blow them across

She can blow me whenever she wants.

jimmy.d

baraca wrote: »

She can blow me whenever she wants.

lol

eyesquirm

No jumping the queue baraca!!

Redsunset

Looks like half the north pole will descend into Canada and North America at the end of run.

850 temp anomaly

geetar

eyesquirm wrote: »

No jumping the queen baraca!!

FTFY :cool:

glimmerman123

baraca wrote: »

She can blow me whenever she wants.

One way to freeze your balls of.

Snowmaker

Greetings fellow weather-nuts! 3rd post on boards.ie so please forgive my juvenile queries if/when they come up - don't worry, I won't be asking when it will snow in my back garden. I have been reading a lot over the past year + ... and have learned quite a bit from you guys (not mentioning names as I may leave someone out unintentionally).. thank you for all the wonderful knowledge and to M.T. for the daily forecasts and the great winter forecast.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Snowmaker wrote: »

Greetings fellow weather-nuts! 3rd post on boards.ie so please forgive my juvenile queries if/when they come up - don't worry, I won't be asking when it will snow in my back garden. I have been reading a lot over the past year + ... and have learned quite a bit from you guys (not mentioning names as I may leave someone out unintentionally).. thank you for all the wonderful knowledge and to M.T. for the daily forecasts and the great winter forecast.

Welcome !

delw

Snowmaker wrote: »

Greetings fellow weather-nuts! 3rd post on boards.ie so please forgive my juvenile queries if/when they come up - don't worry, I won't be asking when it will snow in my back garden. I have been reading a lot over the past year + ... and have learned quite a bit from you guys (not mentioning names as I may leave someone out unintentionally).. thank you for all the wonderful knowledge and to M.T. for the daily forecasts and the great winter forecast.

welcome,stick around we may need you Snowmaker :D

Snowmaker

t|nt|n wrote: »

Welcome !

need 10 posts before I can 'thank' you... but thanks!!
My uneducated prediction for Winter 2011/12 - the same as we have had recently. With the addition of 2 brief (less than 1-week each) cold incursions around end of January and mid-late Feb = sub-zero night time temps, close to freezing during the day, some snow but not sticking for long below 150m ASL. Just a guesstimate based on past winters and the strong zonal flow we have had since October. Strong Positive AO/NAO seems to have pushed the Arctic sea ice to expand more around Baffin/Hudson and Alaska - and kept temps above average all over Europe, there's a lot of ground to be made up in mainland Europe and even if the Siberian Army does march forth, it will have to freeze a lot of land before any sustained cold can stretch over the seas and grip our little island - assuming of course there will be a constant flow of E/NE with no incursions of milder weather. With the northerly/NE flow, it will have to be constant enough to lower SSTs so the mild doesn't quickly come back as soon as the wind stops :-) Just my two cents, which is probably worth half a cent in real-life.

Snowmaker

delw wrote: »

welcome,stick around we may need you Snowmaker :D

"stick around" ... a very appropriate pun! Snowmaker likes this. Thank you delw, believe me, I want to... I watch lamposts, I live in FI every morning, I need some therapy to get the thought of snow and last winter out of my mind - it's an unhealthy obsession.

DOCARCH

Snowmaker wrote: »

there's a lot of ground to be made up in mainland Europe and even if the Siberian Army does march forth, it will have to freeze a lot of land before any sustained cold can stretch over the seas and grip our little island

Agreed! Europe is freakilyy green atm (see http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056377636).

mcriot29

10mb warming on European over the pole by 360 hrs reaches 50C!!!! This is a huge event and will have N hemisphere cold implications
From job b
Also strat forum on netweather is saying the same thing but as i said before, will the cold air hit ireland if it does we could see record temps worse the last dec