Winter 2011/2012

mcriot29

Wild Bill wrote: »

bb1234567 wrote: »

no its just one of those weird reversed charts , i think someone posted the same sort of chart a while back.And anyway thats be ice age sort of stuff:p -68 in ireland and temps of -50 over the whole of africa:p

I think those temps are in the stratosphere!

Spot on bill its real and it the stratosphere

Bishop_Donal

Ah this is the pits.

The forecast for the next five days can be summarised as follows: 'No weather'. Even Met Eireann can predict this one.

I'm getting close to breaking point. Where is all the stuff about no sunspots giving us a bit of decent winter weather gone? Maybe someone needs to start the Summer 2012 thread.

Wild Bill

Bishop_Donal wrote: »

A Maybe someone needs to start the Summer 2012 thread.

There won't be any summer

mcriot29

Bishop_Donal wrote: »

Ah this is the pits.

The forecast for the next five days can be summarised as follows: 'No weather'. Even Met Eireann can predict this one.

I'm getting close to breaking point. Where is all the stuff about no sunspots giving us a bit of decent winter weather gone? Maybe someone needs to start the Summer 2012 thread.

Sunspots are a lot higher this year so maybe this is why jetstream is so far north this winter , if sunspots help give us colder winters we will have to wait till they peak and start going back down , should be very low by 2017 , even in mini ice age there was some very mIld winters , dOnt write this winter off yet we have a good 7 weeks yet to go
I find any snow in march does not last long ,i rem some great snow events in feb .
We got some greatsnow last dec and nov but rest of winter was crapy so maybe this year feb wil be the big freeze.

Sponge Bob

Wild Bill wrote: »

Thanks Sponge. You are a veritable cornucopia of information

A more likely reason is all the Wireless equipment broadcasting up in Sandyford as I explained here in this forum last year when people noticed interference on the Met Radars.

http://www.wi-fi.org/files/FCC_Memorandum_on_UNII_Device_Operation_2010_07_27-M.pdf

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC), the National Telecommunications and
Information Administration (NTIA) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have
been investigating interference caused to Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR)
systems operating in the 5600-5650 MHz band. TDWRs are used to detect wind shear
and other weather conditions near airports. The interference manifests itself as a strobe
line or lines on the radar display. While the radar continues to be usable, such
interference is unacceptable and must be eliminated. More importantly, if the
interference were to become severe, there may be a potential for missed alerts or false
alarms.
We have found that the interference at each location has generally been caused by a few
fixed wireless transmitters used by wireless internet service providers (WISPs) and
operating outdoors in the vicinity of airports at high elevations that are line-of-sight to the
TDWR installations (5 GHz outdoor network equipment). In most instances, the
interference is caused by operations in the same frequency band as TDWRs, but there are
some instances where the interference is caused by adjacent band emissions.

(yadda)

In other instances, equipment that met the FCC’s certification standards nonetheless
caused interference, due to a variety of factors such as: the configuration of the
transmitter, its height and azimuth relative to the TDWR, and the device’s failure to
detect and avoid the radar signal. In such cases, the FCC’s rules still require the
elimination of the interference and the FCC has taken appropriate action in those cases.

So as long as Broadband in Ireland is crap you will always have a raincloud in Sandyford Bill!

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

A more likely reason is all the Wireless equipment broadcasting up in Sandyford as I explained here last year when people noticed interference on the Met Radars.

I just know you won't be either surprised or offended when I say I haven't a clue what that post is about :cool:

Sponge Bob

Is there a big mast bristling with radio gear near you Bill ...and can you linkee poos on Google Maps?

blackius

According to matt Hugo on twitter, (who apart from being a good poster on NW,is also a forecaster for a private met service) the ecm ensemble members are split. 50:50 with half having us in a bitter northeaster from t192 caused by high pressure to the Northwest.
Matt through his job has access to all the ecm data we don't (imho the best nwp) so he'd know.
Interesting.

derekon

blackius wrote: »

According to matt Hugo on twitter, (who apart from being a good poster on NW,is also a forecaster for a private met service) the ecm ensemble members are split. 50:50 with half having us in a bitter northeaster from t192 caused by high pressure to the Northwest.
Matt through his job has access to all the ecm data we don't (imho the best nwp) so he'd know.
Interesting.

Thanks Blackius, can we follow Matt Hugo on Twitter. I have tried to find him but to no avail. Do you have a link ?

D

Lady_North1

derekon wrote: »

blackius wrote: »

According to matt Hugo on twitter, (who apart from being a good poster on NW,is also a forecaster for a private met service) the ecm ensemble members are split. 50:50 with half having us in a bitter northeaster from t192 caused by high pressure to the Northwest.
Matt through his job has access to all the ecm data we don't (imho the best nwp) so he'd know.
Interesting.

Thanks Blackius, can we follow Matt Hugo on Twitter. I have tried to find him but to no avail. Do you have a link ?

D

Try @Matthugo81
Think that's him.

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Is there a big mast bristling with radio gear near you Bill ...and can you linkee poos on Google Maps?

Yeah...



there is this one

As for "linkee poos"

Sponge Bob

Looks like 3Rock, that is rancid with interference that. Especially the lower section shown here.

blackius

Lady_North1 wrote: »

derekon wrote: »

blackius wrote: »

According to matt Hugo on twitter, (who apart from being a good poster on NW,is also a forecaster for a private met service) the ecm ensemble members are split. 50:50 with half having us in a bitter northeaster from t192 caused by high pressure to the Northwest.
Matt through his job has access to all the ecm data we don't (imho the best nwp) so he'd know.
Interesting.

Thanks Blackius, can we follow Matt Hugo on Twitter. I have tried to find him but to no avail. Do you have a link ?

D

Try @Matthugo81
Think that's him.

Yup that's him

Wild Bill

And there is this one where some band have mounted their drum kit on a mast.....



(Are we wandering a bit from Winter 2011/2012?)

nilhg

blackius wrote: »

According to matt Hugo on twitter, (who apart from being a good poster on NW,is also a forecaster for a private met service) the ecm ensemble members are split. 50:50 with half having us in a bitter northeaster from t192 caused by high pressure to the Northwest.
Matt through his job has access to all the ecm data we don't (imho the best nwp) so he'd know.
Interesting.

If this is the ECMWF ensembles (for London, so not directly applicable to us), it looks as if uncertainty increases greatly from t144, doesn't look like a full 50/50 split at that stage though.

T'would be nice to have a decent source of this data.

Sponge Bob

5050 split is a lot closer to cold than anything visible a week ago.

novarock

This was taken on kippure in 2009 - by someone who had to then climb that mast. They were brought up by the army...



Mostly still working!

blackius

nilhg wrote: »

blackius wrote: »

According to matt Hugo on twitter, (who apart from being a good poster on NW,is also a forecaster for a private met service) the ecm ensemble members are split. 50:50 with half having us in a bitter northeaster from t192 caused by high pressure to the Northwest.
Matt through his job has access to all the ecm data we don't (imho the best nwp) so he'd know.
Interesting.

If this is the ECMWF ensembles (for London, so not directly applicable to us), it looks as if uncertainty increases greatly from t144, doesn't look like a full 50/50 split at that stage though.

T'would be nice to have a decent source of this data.

Matt would have the same access to all data not just London - he would have the same sort of access as the ukmo or met eireann.His company would be buying it.
So he's worth listening to.

And yes its huge uncertainty but and here's the kicker,that's a lot more cold members than of late so its good to be moving in that direction.

derekon

Lady_North1 wrote: »

Try @Matthugo81
Think that's him.

Found it! Thanks Blackius

D

derekon

derekon wrote: »

Found it! Thanks Blackius

D

Apologies, thank you Lady North 1 !!

D

nilhg

blackius wrote: »

Matt would have the same access to all data not just London - he would have the same sort of access as the ukmo or met eireann.His company would be buying it.
So he's worth listening to.

And yes its huge uncertainty but and here's the kicker,that's a lot more cold members than of late so its good to be moving in that direction.

Ah no, I understand that, I just don't see why the US model gives out so much info free and the (mostly) publicly funded EU one is so stingy with data. I know there are commercial issues but freely releasing the data with a time delay would surely cover most of those.

blackius

derekon wrote: »

derekon wrote: »

Found it! Thanks Blackius

D

Apologies, thank you Lady North 1 !!

D

Ah wait...I'm posting from my phone...I'd have posted the link otherwise

derekon

blackius wrote: »

Ah wait...I'm posting from my phone...I'd have posted the link otherwise

I don't doubt that for a minute Blackius

However, I had to thank the Lady :D

D

only one

Update on MTC winter forecast

Trotter

MTC's update is very reasoned and calm.. I get the sense he doesn't expect any great memorable weather from all this.

What confuses me is how the charts can look like nothing I've ever seen, but MTC can tell that there's not a lot to be going overboard about.

I've a whole lot to learn The guy has an amazing talent for this stuff.

bb1234567

Trotter wrote: »

MTC's update is very reasoned and calm.. I get the sense he doesn't expect any great memorable weather from all this.

What confuses me is how the charts can look like nothing I've ever seen, but MTC can tell that there's not a lot to be going overboard about.

I've a whole lot to learn The guy has an amazing talent for this stuff.

yes he used the word ''modest'' for the coming cold spell. Sooo disappointed:(:(:(:(

Harps

Trotter wrote: »

MTC's update is very reasoned and calm.. I get the sense he doesn't expect any great memorable weather from all this.

What confuses me is how the charts can look like nothing I've ever seen, but MTC can tell that there's not a lot to be going overboard about.

I've a whole lot to learn The guy has an amazing talent for this stuff.

Assume you mean the charts Maq posted in the FI thread? They're just from one GFS ensemble and definitely not going to happen!

Nothing too interesting showing up on the main models, encouraging signs a few days ago but at the moment it looks like a return to cold zonality around mid month with conditions similar to what we had for much of December. There may be a brief northerly around the 15th but nothing more than that unless things change quite a bit

John.Icy

bb1234567 wrote: »

yes he used the word ''modest'' for the coming cold spell. Sooo disappointed:(:(:(:(

It's not even near certain a cold spell will happen! Keep yer knickers on.

Trotter

Harps wrote: »

Assume you mean the charts Maq posted in the FI thread? They're just from one GFS ensemble and definitely not going to happen!

Nothing too interesting showing up on the main models, encouraging signs a few days ago but at the moment it looks like a return to cold zonality around mid month with conditions similar to what we had for much of December. There may be a brief northerly around the 15th but nothing more than that unless things change quite a bit

I was looking at that one alright. I thought the GFS ensemble was the model to watch?
Which ones are considered to be the main models?

blackius

Trotter wrote: »

Harps wrote: »

Assume you mean the charts Maq posted in the FI thread? They're just from one GFS ensemble and definitely not going to happen!

Nothing too interesting showing up on the main models, encouraging signs a few days ago but at the moment it looks like a return to cold zonality around mid month with conditions similar to what we had for much of December. There may be a brief northerly around the 15th but nothing more than that unless things change quite a bit

I was looking at that one alright. I thought the GFS ensemble was the model to watch?
Which ones are considered to be the main models?

None in particular really.
most serious forecasters use a blend of them all plus their own hunches and experience.
We hear so much of the gfs because it's the biggest and is fully published.
The ecm/hirlam is the one I like to see containing cold in winter, its more reliable in my experience.