Winter 2011/2012

Danno

Last night's 00z GEM is certainly an eyecatcher and the whole run seems to tie in with Met Eireanns outlook for next week also...

jirafa

Issued: Monday 2nd January 2012

*February*
The month begins on a westerly note with high pressure to the south and west, this becoming a large feature to the west through the first week, a colder northerly digging in as low pressure clears to the east of the British Isles.
High pressure reasserts over the UK and persists as a large moving feature over the UK, through to mid-month until declining only to be replaced by a developing feature to the east, the potential for a rather wintry spell to establish as low pressure to the west and southwest attempts to push into the UK.
This block should hold fast so a rather mixed regime of colder weather entrenched to the east, with less cold and eventually milder weather desperately attempting to dislodge this, on current evidence without much success until the latter stages of the month.
Less cold weather should reach western and north-western Britain, but all areas will see a rather strong southerly to south-easterly flow for much of the time, central and eastern Britain remains rather chilly for much of the time throughout.

*March*
The anticyclonic block looks as if it’ll be maintained, so much so that there is startlingly little to suggest that this will be removed through until mid-March, in the interim it’ll be high pressure conditions to the east, a strong southerly flow to the west, this only easing as high pressure periodically ridges through the UK and stalled low pressure to the west fills and moves away. Any precipitation should be concentrated through western and north-western where it’ll be very windy at times too with gales at times.
Through the middle of the month at long last the block should be shunted out of the way allowing low pressure to break through and the Atlantic floodgates open to the whole the UK. Showers or longer outbreaks of rain, it’ll still be on the cool side for many and windy, drier weather establishing once more across the south as pressure rises.
The month ends where it began with yet another strong rise of pressure, an anticyclone drifting into the UK to establish to the east, another block forming the halt the progress of Atlantic systems. Bright and sunny for many, a chilly and brisk easterly top north-easterly flow establishing to take us through to the beginning of April.


This forecast is copyright Weather Consultancy Services and Weatherweb.net.

pistolpetes11

Good aul Joe B

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
18z ensembles ugly too for the northeast. BTW for my UK and western europe friends, jan 20 on should have some fun and games for you

WolfeIRE

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Good aul Joe B

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
jan 20 on should have some fun and games for you

Funderland is coming to Dublin?

pistolpetes11

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Funderland is coming to Dublin?

That plague has been in place since the 26th !!!

mcriot29

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Funderland is coming to Dublin?

That plague has been in place since the 26th !!!

Wonder what jo means fun and games rain i bet when it does not happen

MrMickeyMouse

Haven't read this thread for a while. How's the October snow coming along? The bitter cold December?...No, thought not. I'll stick to Met Eireann and the 5 day forecast!

Speak Now

They were only Mickey Mouse forecasters!!!

The main mans forecast was very accuarte pre-Christmas.

DOCARCH

MrMickeyMouse wrote: »

How's the October snow coming along? The bitter cold December?...No, thought not. I'll stick to Met Eireann and the 5 day forecast!

Well maybe you should have been looking in here and you would have found out that nobody (with the exception of the the tabloid/gutter press) were forecasting October snow or a bitter cold December!

WolfeIRE

Ignore this poster everyone.

Trogdor

MrMickeyMouse wrote: »

Haven't read this thread for a while. How's the October snow coming along? The bitter cold December?...No, thought not. I'll stick to Met Eireann and the 5 day forecast!

If you don't wish to read the winter forecasts then don't, they are only meant as experimental forecasts anyway and i don't think anyone expects them to be fully accurate. However if you wish to comment on their accuracy you might try reading them and see what was actually forecast. This is the second time you've posted in this thread to give out about the forecasts in here and the lack of cold weather which was apparently forecast.
If you wish to post and join the discussion by all means go ahead but at least read the forecasts and base your posts on something more than a rant about nothing.

mcriot29

anyone for some ice tea

Lucreto

Mark Vogan update

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRKLDoyvPOM&feature=plcp&context=C3587b4fUDOEgsToPDskLQHd85dZjJmfHgQiFTRdsF

I love watching his videos even though it doesn't turn out the way he says all the time but the prospect of it is exciting.

derekon

Lucreto wrote: »

Mark Vogan update

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRKLDoyvPOM&feature=plcp&context=C3587b4fUDOEgsToPDskLQHd85dZjJmfHgQiFTRdsF

I love watching his videos even though it doesn't turn out the way he says all the time but the prospect of it is exciting.

Yeah, I have to admit I do like his updates. Enjoyed the above video for today the 9th January however he would have to go and balls it up by declaring that he would be shocked if by the end of January, the majority of the UK was not covered in snow and very cold temperatures.

This is what he predicted for post Christmas Day 2011 and he made an almightly balls up of that! Just hope he has not gone and jinxed it now :mad:

D

mcriot29

derekon wrote: »

Lucreto wrote: »

Mark Vogan update

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRKLDoyvPOM&feature=plcp&context=C3587b4fUDOEgsToPDskLQHd85dZjJmfHgQiFTRdsF

I love watching his videos even though it doesn't turn out the way he says all the time but the prospect of it is exciting.

Yeah, I have to admit I do like his updates. Enjoyed the above video for today the 9th January however he would have to go and balls it up by declaring that he would be shocked if by the end of January, the majority of the UK was not covered in snow and very cold temperatures.

This is what he predicted for post Christmas Day 2011 and he made an almightly balls up of that! Just hope he has not gone and jinxed it now :mad:

D

Lol he took it a step 2 far there if he had said id be very shocked if any of the uk had not seen any snow be end of jan , but saying all he said at end was madness ,but have to admit it put me in great form even if it wont happen lol

Lucreto

derekon wrote: »

Yeah, I have to admit I do like his updates. Enjoyed the above video for today the 9th January however he would have to go and balls it up by declaring that he would be shocked if by the end of January, the majority of the UK was not covered in snow and very cold temperatures.

This is what he predicted for post Christmas Day 2011 and he made an almightly balls up of that! Just hope he has not gone and jinxed it now :mad:

D

Vogan did say his charts could go either way earlier in the month but he had his heart set on snow it seen to have blinded him even when the charts went towards a mild outcome.

Now there is a no question change happening he might do better this time round but as you said he jumped the gun on the snow from the end of the month.

pistolpetes11

derekon wrote: »

Yeah, I have to admit I do like his updates. Enjoyed the above video for today the 9th January however he would have to go and balls it up by declaring that he would be shocked if by the end of January, the majority of the UK was not covered in snow and very cold temperatures.

This is what he predicted for post Christmas Day 2011 and he made an almightly balls up of that! Just hope he has not gone and jinxed it now :mad:

D

The excitement in his voice when there is cold in the charts draws me in every time .

Sponge Bob

I am personally more interested in the day to day antics of a Rutting Mayo Rookery than anything Vogan could cook up. I comprehensively outforecasted him for the christmas too.

pistolpetes11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I am personally more interested in the day to day the antics of a Rutting Mayo Rookery than anything Vogan could cook up. I comprehensively outforecasted him for the christmas too.

What is your views on the remainder of the Winter Sponge ?

Sponge Bob

I think there may well be a cold spell first two-three weeks of Feb but more of a frosty sunny period than a snowy one Pete and not necessarily 3 weeks long either. March could also be colder than normal.

It is very far out for now though. So I'll hold fire on offering a prediction as such if you don't mind.

Dinkleman

Mark voghan is full of ****e

pistolpetes11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I think there may well be a cold spell first two-three weeks of Feb but more of a frosty sunny period than a snowy one Pete and not necessarily 3 weeks long either. March could also be colder than normal.

It is very far out for now though. So I'll hold fire on offering a prediction as such if you don't mind.

Ah none of your fence sitting now !

In other news how would you lot fancy a negatively forecast NAO ,

Sponge Bob

The NAO is closing in but then the split systems gotta build and pull in cold Pete...and you know it

pistolpetes11

Dinkleman wrote: »

Mark voghan is full of ****e

Has a massive bias toward cold , but puts his neck on the line and has held is hands up when he is wrong .


Hows about you compile your own forecast/blog and tell us about your thoughts on how the weather will work out ?

Like the way he breaks down where gets his ideas from and its clear to see he knows what he is talking about and there is a lot to be learnt following his videos, although as stated earlier in my post sometimes his bias for the cold does get in the way of the actual facts.

Most forecasters use a blend of models and other data/studies to compile what they think the weather will work out in the long range , its far from an exact science.

He is not a chancer like Piers or Madden and gives up a lot of his time to put up his video bloggs.

pistolpetes11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The NAO is closing in but then the split systems gotta build and pull in cold Pete...and you know it

Well its looking a hell of a lot better than it was 2 weeks ago , but I agree with what you are saying

tzfrantic

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Ah none of your fence sitting now !

In other news how would you lot fancy a negatively forecast NAO ,

this is brilliant here comes the cold weather at least lets hope nao stays negative

Sponge Bob

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

sometimes his bias for the cold does get in the way of the actual facts.

Sometimes?? :eek: He is a Ken Ring with coloured pictures, that is all.

pistolpetes11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Sometimes?? :eek: He is a Ken Ring with coloured pictures, that is all.

In fairness the guy does know what he is on about and seems to have a genuine passion for meteorology

Sponge Bob

He has 'a' passion, that I will concede Pete! But weather is at heart a science ...and a nuisance of course.

Vogan compounds the nuisance bits I find.

pistolpetes11

Speaking of mad dogs earlier on I see Mister Madden has an update , Think he actually holds his hands up bout getting some of his forecast wrong !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPJ7YaMY6OY