Winter 2011/2012

pistolpetes11

this is actually worth a read ,

James Madden on the defensive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAwKGoFBNlA

blackius

Ach...he has no choice but to say he was wrong.
It's very easy to delude oneself in weather forecasting,though forecasting is the wrong word.
He hasn't a clue and there are a few like him.

WolfeIRE

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

James Madden on the defensive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAwKGoFBNlA

James Madden - [FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]The truth is that I did not write or have any influence on any of those newspaper headlines, I did not even speak to one newspaper editor or journalist, the quotes was simply taken from 'updates' on Exacta Weather, yet they appeared in almost every British national newspaper. Seem strange to anyone else?

[/FONT]Yet, he was happy to post a front page story (BRITAIN FACES AN EARLY BIG FREEZE) from the Express on his website homepage for two months.

The power of the internet helped James become an overnight guru. The winter he forecast has not materialised. Yet, the media are still quoting him on cold prospects for January. James is a glutton for punishment and the media are worse.

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 31m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Latest ECM 32 day showing strong signal & consistency for marked height rises to the NW & over Greenland late Jan/early Feb = cold weather!


Now this is a good sign ,

Matt Hugo is a very well respected poster on NW and is a meteorologist for a UK company www.weathercommerce.net/

dsmythy

Madden should just say he may have been somewhat wrong in his forecast. It happens to all forecasters, it's how they deal with it when you know their worth.

pistolpetes11

dsmythy wrote: »

Madden should just say he may have been somewhat wrong in his forecast. It happens to all forecasters, it's how they deal with it when you know their worth.

The problem being the stick that made him is now the one thats beating him ,

THE MEDIA,

Headlines news one day and then completely mad as a brush and not to be trusted the next.

A lot of it is point scoring with the media outlets too, Think the Daily mail ran with the Early winter storys and the Guardian is the one giving him some flack now , rightly so mind you ,

He was naive to accept the plaudits when he had not actually given an actual interview and the journalist basically copied and pasted from his website .

blackius

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 31m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Latest ECM 32 day showing strong signal & consistency for marked height rises to the NW & over Greenland late Jan/early Feb = cold weather!


Now this is a good sign ,

Matt Hugo is a very well respected poster on NW and is a meteorologist for a UK company www.weathercommerce.net/

Yeah he hasn't half enough followers on twitter.
What I like lately is he is telling us what is on the ECMWF ensemble data.

For those that don't know,thats a tool basically for determining the certainty or otherwise of what the models op run is telling you.
Big scatter of lines [equating to huge difference in the panel maps] means low confidence.
Lines bunched together means highish confidence.
Each line [or panel that we usually don't get to see with the ECM but do with the GFS] refers to scenario's arising from various slightly changed starting points.


Or something like that... :pac:

pistolpetes11

UK Outlook for Sunday 15 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 24 Jan 2012:

There is considerable uncertainty during the first half of next week but it looks likely that eastern parts will start dry but cold with some sunshine. However western areas look set to start cloudy with outbreaks of rain. These are likely to spread erratically east,turning to sleet for a time, with some hill snow likely. Later in the week there is higher confidence that northern and especially northwestern parts of the UK will be mostly unsettled with these conditions perhaps spreading south and east at times. However most southern areas are likely to see more settled weather with an ongoing risk of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures generally near average, but rather cold at times in the east or southeast.

Updated: 1156 on Tue 10 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

pistolpetes11

blackius wrote: »

Yeah he hasn't half enough followers on twitter.
What I like lately is he is telling us what is on the ECMWF ensemble data.

For those that don't know,thats a tool basically for determining the certainty or otherwise of what the models op run is telling you.
Big scatter of lines [equating to huge difference in the panel maps] means low confidence.
Lines bunched together means highish confidence.
Each line [or panel that we usually don't get to see with the ECM but do with the GFS] refers to scenario's arising from various slightly changed starting points.


Or something like that... :pac:

It would be something similar to this panel chart from the GEFS but he would be using the lined graph ensemble

This is a blend of all the Perturbations with purple showing a lot of perturbations in agreement and the blues /greens /reds showing a lot of different views with confidence in the output being low.

WolfeIRE

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

UK Outlook for Sunday 15 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 24 Jan 2012:

There is considerable uncertainty during the first half of next week

That about sums it up.

Sponge Bob

High Time for a forecast thread with the title "Nobody Knows What Is Happening ...BUT!"

Interim Crow Report from Galway.

Having examined 2 Rookeries in dry weather today I can confirm:

1. They are happily rutting away with each other, in small groups not in a Murder.
2. They have not finished rutting and no new nests are under construction at this moment in the rookeries. Last years nests were well scattered by christmas.

( Black Crows not Grey Crows...NB)

kstand

Sponge Bob wrote: »

High Time for a forecast thread with the title "Nobody Knows What Is Happening ...BUT!"

Interim Crow Report from Galway.

Having examined 2 Rookeries in dry weather today I can confirm:

1. They are happily rutting away with each other, in small groups not in a Murder.
2. They have not finished rutting and no new nests are under construction at this moment in the rookeries. Last years nests were well scattered by christmas.

( Black Crows not Grey Crows...NB)

A most interesting observation.
Has the postman in Donegal had anything to say? No frogs standing on tar barrels or anything indicative along those lines?

JJJJNR

kstand wrote: »

A most interesting observation.
Has the postman in Donegal had anything to say? No frogs standing on tar barrels or anything indicative along those lines?

Has been right so far, would like to know what he thinks .

kstand

JJJJNR wrote: »

Has been right so far, would like to know what he thinks .

I agree, spot on so far, though nothing out of him since Christmas from what i can see.

pistolpetes11

Great site for the AO/NAO charts

weatherfiend

are you going to tell us what the site is?

pistolpetes11

weatherfiend wrote: »

are you going to tell us what the site is?

Lol would be a good idea !

http://t.co/UwwRUC3m


http://policlimate.com/weather/oscillation.html

Lucreto

Mark Vogan updates

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPurjuTrjsE&feature=plcp&context=C3587b4fUDOEgsToPDskLQHd85dZjJmfHgQiFTRdsF

Sponge Bob

The Crows have gone to sleep and they are more interesting than Mark Vogan.

Deep Easterly

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

James Madden on the defensive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPWQfAv_qBQ

ShytePryde

I know **** all about forecasting, but this is an interesting contrast, to say the least

http://www.agi.it/latest-news/news/201111301621-epp-rt10200-no_snow_on_the_alps_ski_world_cup_likely_to_be_stopped

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/snowandski/9006670/Skiing-Is-this-the-best-ski-season-ever.html

I dunno if this means anything in terms of our snow prospects, but it's one hell of a turnaround.

WolfeIRE

Anyone heading across the Atlantic can expect snow in the US midwest and northeast over the next few days, the first real widespread snowfall in these regions all winter.

3-day charts

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow

mrweatherman

hey folks long time no see, i see hardly any activity around here lately im guessing like most others they and i have given up the hope of any real decent cold or any snow at all this jan or feb

mcriot29

mrweatherman wrote: »

hey folks long time no see, i see hardly any activity around here lately im guessing like most others they and i have given up the hope of any real decent cold or any snow at all this jan or feb

Slim chance of decent cold spell from around 21 st on but i think feb may be best shot for a good cold spell, around mid feb but this is more hope then anything,we need nao to dip to -2 before that happens ao will be dipping from 20 th on , hope the ao does not goon the plus side again

Lucreto

Iancar29

A few quotes from the book that im reading about the Famous Winter Siege Of 1947.

IRELAND's ARCTIC SIEGE

The Blizzard took DUblin by surprise , with a 62mph wind behind it... left drifts of up to five feet. Transport was almost paralysed .. telephone communication reduced to a tangle of torn wires and fallen pole .
( Irish Times , 3rd February 1947)

People have begun to strip their houses of woodwork to make a fire .
( Irish Independent , 10 Feb 1947 )

Snow seven feet deep in inland area... at least one 50-foot drift near Glencree . The hamlet of Moneystown at Roundwood has been "lost" in the snow.
( Irish Times, 26 Feb. 1947)

I really do wonder what modern charts of this setup would have looked like!

DOCARCH

Iancar29 wrote: »

A few quotes from the book that im reading about the Famous Winter Siege Of 1947.

I really do wonder what modern charts of this setup would have looked like!

Reading same (only on about page 70). Lucky boards was not around in 1947, can you imagine the meltdown!

Iancar29

DOCARCH wrote: »

Reading same (only on about page 70). Lucky boards was not around in 1947, can you imagine the meltdown!

Warming up by pressing refresh so much! ha :rolleyes:

Redsunset

Iancar29

redsunset wrote: »

WOZA!! :eek: ...


I'll have one of those please and a bag of chips! :rolleyes: :pac: