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Winter 2011/2012
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Blizzard 2010 wrote: »Winter 2011/2012 a complete disaster for cold /snow fans. Just look at the mean temperature on the Met Eireann Monthly Data,
But it was extremely pleasant for those of us who hate snow.
Silver lining and all that, you had a good winter last year, I had a good one this year.
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Carsinian Thau wrote: »But it was extremely pleasant for those of us who hate snow.
Silver lining and all that, you had a good winter last year, I had a good one this year.
So far
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need 10 posts before I can 'thank' you... but thanks!!
My uneducated prediction for Winter 2011/12 - the same as we have had recently. With the addition of 2 brief (less than 1-week each) cold incursions around end of January and mid-late Feb = sub-zero night time temps, close to freezing during the day, some snow but not sticking for long below 150m ASL. Just a guesstimate based on past winters and the strong zonal flow we have had since October. Strong Positive AO/NAO seems to have pushed the Arctic sea ice to expand more around Baffin/Hudson and Alaska - and kept temps above average all over Europe, there's a lot of ground to be made up in mainland Europe and even if the Siberian Army does march forth, it will have to freeze a lot of land before any sustained cold can stretch over the seas and grip our little island - assuming of course there will be a constant flow of E/NE with no incursions of milder weather. With the northerly/NE flow, it will have to be constant enough to lower SSTs so the mild doesn't quickly come back as soon as the wind stops :-) Just my two cents, which is probably worth half a cent in real-life.
Two variants on my winter update:
The JaMad Update:
Further to my original forecast on 05th January, I predicted snowfall would occur above sea level during the end of January, which was correct. I correctly predicted the cold spell to last less than a week, which was/is correct. I also predicted this before any other any other amateur weather-nut/poster mentioned or named a blizzard/snow day. I also mentioned that there would be temperatures below freezing within the timeframe end-Jan to mid-late Feb - this still stands! I predicted the now talked-about reload during the middle to end of Feb, this still stands! I firmly believe that winter is colder than summer, this still stands!
The PierCorb Update:
Further to my prediction of a cold phase during the final week of January - this will be delayed until the beginning of February, or later, due to an unaccounted for factor in my forecast. I perform my analysis at night, and because of this it was impossible to predict or foresee the large bright shining disc in the sky (the hot one, not the cold one). I have consulted the interweb and found this phenomenon to be called 'the sun' - which provides 'hot light' to the planets it circumnavigates. I have now factored this 'sun' into my forecast for the remainder of the winter and there are some surprising and interesting permutations for the remainder of the winter - join my new pay-per-minute interweb page to find out more.
Sorry guys, I couldn't resist. Not intending to be offensive, just a mildly humerous take. If anything it failed miserably and I'll laugh at myself more readily than anyone else.
However, in light of my guessticast, I haven't been too far off the mark, all this lurking for the past 12+ months seems to have resulted in me absorbing some smartness!
My own two cents on the remainder of the winter:
This week's cold will last beyond the predicted Friday retreat - until Monday at least. Mild or marginal (rollercoaster stuff) for two weeks after that, then a very brief blast towards the end of Feb, before a chilly but not cold start to March... by St Patrick's day temps will be up to +15C and it will be dry. I'll turn Guessticasting into a science yet me!! 0 -
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Sponge Bob wrote: »SNOWMAKER Threads predicting 15c have a ring to them :-)
With all those 2 Cent and half Cent worth of forecasting he'll be up to 15C by March, no problem 0 -
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I have a feeling this thread is going to be locked up soon... current discussion threads are more relevant at this stage. So a final image which I think sums up the winter pretty well...
You can see the symbolism everywhere... snow on the cards, ordered, got the tracking number, product dispatched, it's almost here!!, it's on the doorstep, just gotta get the box open!.....ah...
.. what happened? it was packaged right, reliable delivery company, etc... just took the box to be dropped once during it's entire journey ..as the delivery guy was coming up the drive, trying to avoid a large puddle no doubt...
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How can the winter 11/12 thread be locked? It's only the first day of the last month of winter? And speaking of winter 11/12 who would have thought that we'd looking at the same chart (more or less) for four calendar months in a row - Nov-Feb.I have a feeling this thread is going to be locked up soon...
cheerio, I'll be back for winter in around 2-3 weeks!
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »How can the winter 11/12 thread be locked? It's only the first day of the last month of winter? And speaking of winter 11/12 who would have thought that we'd looking at the same chart (more or less) for four calendar months in a row - Nov-Feb.
cheerio, I'll be back for winter in around 2-3 weeks!
because the discussions have moved to other, more specific threads (such as up-coming cold, FI Charts, etc..) not much discussion left about the winter happening in this thread...
That's a disgusting chart by the way, I'd need a two-three week break after looking at that too! 0 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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