Winter 2011/2012

H2UMrsRobinson

Program on BBC2 @ 9oclock tonight called "Will it snow!" about the coming winter, forecasts and how we should prepare. Just letting you know in case anyone's interested. :-)

sh1tstirrer

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Emmm, if it was just a grass frost the air temp would be above 0 all night, in fact it was below zero from about 6.30pm yesterday right through the night.

I like the way that you think just because it was a grass frost where you are it's the same for everybody else. 3.4 below zero is cold for any time of the year. And fyi everything was frozen solid, car needed a serious de-icing job, poodles well frozen etc.

In Cork it was only a grass frost. Sorry to hear about your dogs

thetonynator

Anyone here ever hear of this forecaster?

Mark Vogan's Official 2011-2012 United Kingdom & Europe Winter Forecast

UK TO FACE 3RD STRAIGHT WINTER WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY, CRIPPLING SNOW AND SEVERE COLD, WORST OF WINTER CONTINENTWIDE TO BE CENTRED OVER SCANDINAVIA



UK WINTER HIGHLIGHTS

DECEMBER
PERIOD BETWEEN DECEMBER 15-20TH HERALDS THE ONSET OF INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND COLDER WEATHER FROM OFF THE CONTINENT

The past two winters have seen heavy snow followed by harsh cold prior to Christmas with 2009 seeing Pre-Christmas travel chaos.

Unfortunately, I can see a repeat of both heavy, widespread snow and cold leading up to Christmas 2011 as a building Arctic air mass fills Scandinavia with this process commencing around the start of December.

As December progresses after a relatively mild, wet and unsettled start, like in 2009, I am most concerned about the period around the 15th through 20th as I believe we'll start to see the expanding cold over Norway and Sweden start to migrate westwards as a Greenland Block sets up.

With the continued influence from Atlantic weather systems and the approach of Arctic or certainly colder air from off the continent sets up a wild battleground in which heavy rain turns to heavy snow.


A WHITE CHRISTMAS LOOKS LIKELY FOR LARGE PARTS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM

Given my expectations with the arrival of cold air from Scandinavia combined with the continued active Atlantic-Driven pattern we've been seeing through October, I feel that it's highly possible that the collision between moist maritime air with Polar/Arctic air masses coming out of Scandinavia will result in widespread snowfall and coverage across most of the UK and even Ireland by December 25 and snowfalls may continue in the week leading up to New Year, if not, bitter cold will then dominate.

JANUARY
The tough later part of December will set the stage for what may be a severe first 10 to 15 days of January as a strong NEGATIVE NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation & AO (Arctic Oscillation) firmly establishes itself with deep troughs filled with increasingly bitter Arctic air centred from the UK eastwards to Germany.

Bitterly cold Arctic air may keep us shivering from around New Year through the early part of January once the Atlantic door is shut and Arctic High Pressure settles in. High pressure brings very sunny days, lighter winds but with widespread and possibly deep snow cover, the coldest days and nights of winter will settle in.
Forecast Highs & Lows for a Selection of UK Towns and Cities

Inverness High: -4 to -8C Low: -10 to -18C

Glasgow High: -4 to -8C Low: -12 to -20C

Edinburgh High: -4 to -8C Low: -12 to -20C

M'chester High: -3 to -6C Low: -9 to -18C

Birm'ham High: -3 to -6C Low: -8 to -17C

London High: -2 to -4C Low: -7 to -12C

I believe it's possible that during the period of harshest cold, we may see large swaths of of the UK outside of towns and cities which struggle to see highs much warmer than -6 to -10C and nights beneath clear skies, light winds, widespread snowcover and a bitter Arctic air mass in place, lows may dip to -20C or colder as far south as the outer edges of London.

Such areas of Bensen, Oxfordshire, Shap, Cumbria and a selection of Highland cold hallows, we may see lows dip to between -21 and -25C and a possible 2 or two nights taking a run at the UK record of -27C which was recorded at both Altnaharra, Sutherland and Braemar, Aberdeenshire.


After a brutal first two weeks of January throughout the UK and Ireland, I believe we will see the easing of the truly severe cold as the Greenland block breaks down and the core of cold begins to migrate east towards eastern Europe. Milder Atlantic air will allow us to recover but by then, the damage will be done as many bodies of water including the Clyde, parts of the Forth, Loch Lomond as well as countless lakes and rivers across England and Wales as well as Ireland will be frozen. Coastal harbours, bays and 1-2 mile stretches of sea may see icing. Burst pipes will also become a big problem once again.

FEBRUARY & MARCH

I believe, though the worst of winter's cold and snow will be behind us come mid-January, return blasts of snow followed by cold is highly possible, similar to what we encountered back in February and March of 2011.

Seems to be a a repeat of last year, almost identical, except starting a few weeks later.

pistolpetes11

Someone posted it up a few days ago alright ,

Very promising for peeps who like there chilly weather !

thetonynator

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Someone posted it up a few days ago alright ,

Very promising for peeps who like there chilly weather !

Ah right sorry didn't see it. Just wondering if anyone's ever heard of him.

sh1tstirrer

thetonynator wrote: »

Ah right sorry didn't see it. Just wondering if anyone's ever heard of him.

Never heard of him. I wonder by any chance would he have next weeks lotto numbers?

thetonynator

sh1tstirrer wrote: »

Never heard of him. I wonder by any chance would he have next weeks lotto numbers?

He could get them the same way he got that forecast, pull them straight out of his head. :rolleyes:

sh1tstirrer

thetonynator wrote: »

He could get them the same way he got that forecast, pull them straight out of his head. :rolleyes:

Both results would be equally reliable :rolleyes:

bb1234567

did anyone catch the bbc programme will it snow, i forgot to watch it, does it bode well for us? good or bad ?:D

damino

Saw bbc programme. A bit biased towards the UK Met Office. One supermarket manager gave a forecast that Morrison's purchased from an independent forecaster and it sounded a bit like MT's forecast. Plenty of snow showers in December but the worst to come in the new year. The presenters did clearly state that will all different factors from ocean currents, sunspot cycle, etc etc. its almost impossible to predict accurately with so much chaos. Look good for snow and cold:)

pistolpetes11

bb1234567 wrote: »

did anyone catch the bbc programme will it snow, i forgot to watch it, does it bode well for us? good or bad ?:D

Fairly Crap , there is thread on it here : http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056442790

If you watched it looking to find out Will it Snow , well that was prob the one thing they didnt address :eek:

dsmythy

thetonynator wrote: »

Ah right sorry didn't see it. Just wondering if anyone's ever heard of him.

I follow his page on facebook. He's just an amateur lover of all things weather. There is scientific method towards his forecasts but he'll also be the first to say he is no psychic. Purely entertainment purposes only.

mcriot29

Kippure wrote: »

I found this....

Joe says this is his winter outlook for the UK. It was apparently released on October 5, entitled Euro winter outlook. I did read it, but did not realise it was the official winter forecast.

Euro Winter Outlook
October 5 10:16 AMby Joe Bastardi
I posted a bit on this earlier, but here is what I am looking at in Europe for the heart of winter ( mid November to mid March)

A cold winter is forecast in major European areas in the north and west , with above normal snowfall, but the same wild card of blocking that affects the US would affect here too. The idea is that the winter backs off a bit in January, but with most of Europe further north than the US it comes back anyway in Feburary. The models and the analogs have major late season cold, but the models are over the south rather than the north, implying they are seeing a threat of blocking. In any case, I would plan on using as much snow and ice fighting equipment as last year and get ready to focus on the center of the continent for much of the winter, though once again the UK will remember this as a colder than normal winter, in spite of December not being as bad as last year ( if it is, then perhaps the ice age truly is coming)

I will get more detailed later on with this

ciao for now



2 JB tweets 4th of November.

"Heh Europe,,, looks like blocking may be rocking early this year. Get the winter woolies ready for possible December to remember"

"NAO may go negative for December, meaning 3rd cold one in row for Europe, US east and far east ( though from different source)"

sounds good does he mean ireland or just europe

lilzor

so when we will meet the first snow ;D in 2011 ?

ninebeanrows

The ECM is interesting this morning.

Moving in the right direction.

168hrs

kstand

I live in London and was walking down past the 2 churches on Church St Stoke Newington eysterday with the little lad in the buggy. There are 2 holly trees outside the smaller church on the park side of the road and I noticed both were fairly heavily laden with berries. Like they were last year.

ninebeanrows

The 6z GFS bears no resemblance to the 0z UKM or ECM as early at T120hrs

MiNdGaM3

Weathercheck wrote: »

The 6z GFS bears no resemblance to the 0z UKM or ECM as early at T120hrs

Agreed. Just seems unable to build any decent pressure over Greenland, so the Euro/Scandi high can't connect.
We have a split in the jet stream starting around t144 but too much energy goes into the northern arm to allow the HP to migrate northwards



Also, the ECM operational was on the lower end of it's ensemble range for De Bilt 2m temperature unfortunately
http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default.asp?type=eps_pluim

Iancar29

This morning's FB post by my brother....

"ya know its winter when the m50 salt truck is out spraying the front of your car with salt... My car doesnt need salt..."

DominoDub

The US are keeping all of this years Snow !

weathermaiden

Hello everyone, I have been lurking for over a year and boards finally sent me that godforsaken email link to confirm my account.... so allow me to introduce myself. I live in Bray for years now, but I'm a Yank originally, so I enjoy the excitement for weather here that is the norm back where I come from. (10 inches of snow where I come from wasn't usually enough to even cancel school, if we were lucky we got a few hours delay!) Also, I had a dream last night that it snowed, so that alone qualifies me to post here.

So, hello, and I look forward to furiously staring at the clouds through the window with the weather forum open on my lap waiting for something to happen, occasionally interjecting with a smart comment but mostly reading yours.

homersimpson

weathermaiden wrote: »

Hello everyone, I have been lurking for over a year and boards finally sent me that godforsaken email link to confirm my account.... so allow me to introduce myself. I live in Bray for years now, but I'm a Yank originally, so I enjoy the excitement for weather here that is the norm back where I come from. (10 inches of snow where I come from wasn't usually enough to even cancel school, if we were lucky we got a few hours delay!) Also, I had a dream last night that it snowed, so that alone qualifies me to post here.

So, hello, and I look forward to furiously staring at the clouds through the window with the weather forum open on my lap waiting for something to happen, occasionally interjecting with a smart comment but mostly reading yours.

Welcome aboard

PauloMN

weathermaiden wrote: »

Hello everyone, I have been lurking for over a year and boards finally sent me that godforsaken email link to confirm my account.... so allow me to introduce myself. I live in Bray for years now, but I'm a Yank originally, so I enjoy the excitement for weather here that is the norm back where I come from. (10 inches of snow where I come from wasn't usually enough to even cancel school, if we were lucky we got a few hours delay!) Also, I had a dream last night that it snowed, so that alone qualifies me to post here.

So, hello, and I look forward to furiously staring at the clouds through the window with the weather forum open on my lap waiting for something to happen, occasionally interjecting with a smart comment but mostly reading yours.

Make sure your F5 button is in good shape, you'll need it on this forum when the snow starts.

leahyl

PauloMN wrote: »

Make sure your F5 button is in good shape, you'll need it on this forum when the snow starts.

I like your confidence:D

lord lucan

PauloMN wrote: »

Make sure your F5 button is in good shape, you'll need it on this forum when it goes into meltdown following a snowless winter

FYP.

PauloMN

lord lucan wrote: »

FYP.

Snowless winter? :mad:

Caff Caff

Well...just joined up myself and I do hope for snow. Nothing wrong with that! Last year, to my recollection, the snow did not come until after the 19th of November. I remember this because my bday is the 19th and I had been out celebrating that when it snowed quite suddenly. At the moment we are experiencing a bit of a cold spell. my phone says it is 11 degrees out but it certainly feels colder that it did when it said 11degrees last week. Where I live I have also seen holly bushes filled with berries. an indicactor for hunter gatherers to the severity of the coming winter so why do we not pay attention to these signs? why do we always need science? Science is forever being turned on its head by basic human observational skills! Hopefully it will snow. the novelty of it is priceless. Really interesting posts here but I would recommend reading over last years forum posts around the winter of 2010-2011. Those who said it would and those who said it wouldn't... the repetition is uncanny...or is it?
Roll on the snow, even tho accuweather on my phone says it will b 11-13 degrees all week and then heavy rainfall this weekend.

Honey-ec

Caff Caff wrote: »

Last year, to my recollection, the snow did not come until after the 19th of November.

It started on the 28th, very lightly, then bucketed down on the 30th. I remember, cause I had to battle into work for month-end, then took, I think, two snow days on the 1st and 2nd.

Speak Now

First heavy snow in the south east was Saturday November 27th!

MiNdGaM3

The 12z GFS is another improvement. From the 12th onwards, there's more energy going into the southern arm of the jet and the scandi/euro high is also stronger. The low over the Iberian peninsula/Bay of Biscay getting stronger also. It's slow going but certainly some good signals.
Plenty of surface cold in Europe by the end of the high res timeframe.