Winter 2011/2012

jimmy.d

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

ninebeanrows

So what to have?

A medium term prospect of a sudden turn to cold.

If that GREENY high can be pumped up in the upcoming runs things could move FAST.

Joe Public

Pangea wrote: »

I see Gerard Fleming on the news explaining that they have access to monthly forecasts and that no severe winter weather was in the pipeline.
I found it strange, since last week Evelyn Cusack basically said no can predict long range forecasts.

Ger is in a higher position than Evelyn and thus has access to the more confidential data :rolleyes:

Su Campu

mcriot29 wrote: »

ha the irish met wouldent know what the ao index was last year 3 days before the big thunder snow and big freeze they said there could be sleet and temps around 3 c instead it was -4 and snow they dont know there ass from there elbow
waste of space they are
joe basterdi has just said on his twitter the ao and nao are about to drop in dec so if this does happen ireland will get hit just like last year also signs are there for strat warming too PIERS AND JOE B are both looking at the ao going very low in dec
before i heard this i was going with a normal irish mild winter but with the Ao AND Nao going low in dec this can only mean one thing artic air being pushed south and the AO index effects west europe the worst
also look at the models notice very cold air over norway and russia in 7 days or so it wouldent take much for this to come over us a good push could see this over ireland in a matter of days

Is the full stop button missing on your keypad??!! :pac:

Musicman2000

Its the ECMWF low res charts they have access to, I cant remeber if it was here or on another forum but someone posted the ECMWF outlook for winter and it showed a big high planted right over us and the UK, they were going for a cold dry winter.
He said there was no signs of another artic blast like we had last year, but the govermeant were getting prepared for another harsh winter, so the govermeant must be getting info from some where else, as met are not going for a cold one.

CorkBabe33

Pangea wrote: »

I see Gerard Fleming on the news explaining that they have access to monthly forecasts and that no severe winter weather was in the pipeline.
I found it strange, since last week Evelyn Cusack basically said no can predict long range forecasts.

Met Eireann say there is no severe weather in the pipeline... Oh dear, that's a sure sign that we need to get the grit salt & snow plows ready straight away !!!

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

I see Gerard Fleming on the news explaining that they have access to monthly forecasts and that no severe winter weather was in the pipeline.
I found it strange, since last week Evelyn Cusack basically said no can predict long range forecasts.

ECMWF produce monthly forecasts & experimental annual forecasts.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts

leahyl

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Its the ECMWF low res charts they have access to, I cant remeber if it was here or on another forum but someone posted the ECMWF outlook for winter and it showed a big high planted right over us and the UK, they were going for a cold dry winter.
He said there was no signs of another artic blast like we had last year, but the govermeant were getting prepared for another harsh winter, so the govermeant must be getting info from some where else, as met are not going for a cold one.

I don't think the government has 'inside information' about the weather for this winter - I think it's more that they don't want to be caught out again if we get this arctic weather again, hence the launch of winterready.ie

leahyl

For those of you that are still hopeful of another arctic blast! An amazing video of someone driving through the Phoenix Park in heavy snow:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA-9PWdTQrE

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Netweather Winter Update:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

only one

t|nt|n wrote: »

Netweather Winter Update:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Was just going to post it lol. What do ye think about they're forecast

Tom Cruises Left Nut

As they say, low in confidence

Its back to looking for trends in the fantasy island thread !

JFKIRELAND

Damn those wipers are annoying!!!:rolleyes:

leahyl

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

Damn those wipers are annoying!!!:rolleyes:

you're welcome :rolleyes:

Musicman2000

t|nt|n wrote: »

As they say, low in confidence

Its back to looking for trends in the fantasy island thread !

Yeah you are right there back to fi watching, a big swing around from their last update, an average winter:rolleyes:

Bishop_Donal

leahyl wrote: »

For those of you that are still hopeful of another arctic blast! An amazing video of someone driving through the Phoenix Park in heavy snow:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA-9PWdTQrE

Thank God he turned over the radio station! Love that song: hello snowfall my old friend.... would love if you were here again...

Was that a bit of graupel around 2 mins and 12 secs? maybe thundersnow.

Tae laidir

CorkBabe33 wrote: »

Met Eireann say there is no severe weather in the pipeline... Oh dear, that's a sure sign that we need to get the grit salt & snow plows ready straight away !!!

The Authorities have purchased extra salt and snow ploughs. Sure sign we'll have a mild winter!!

Iancar29

leahyl wrote: »

For those of you that are still hopeful of another arctic blast! An amazing video of someone driving through the Phoenix Park in heavy snow:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA-9PWdTQrE

The first building at the very start is the Half Way house Pub... One of the snowy days like that one , i was in there have a nice hot lovely dinner then went to walk the dog too in the park in the dark , in the snow... with torches... was AMAZING!.... Awh Why did u post this!?!... i want it nowww!!!!

ninebeanrows

tomorrow could be a BIG big day for winter hopers.

Greenland high being underplayed.

Expect big changes

Lucreto

Weathercheck wrote: »

tomorrow could be a BIG big day for winter hopers.

Greenland high being underplayed.

Expect big changes

How so?

maquiladora

Lucreto wrote: »

How so?

18Z GFS pointing towards potential pattern change.

jo06555

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS pointing towards potential pattern change.

Really wish i knew what that meant anyway are their any irish forecasters predicting widespread snow for irl when the uk are expected to get it and if not how come

maquiladora

jo06555 wrote: »

Really wish i knew what that meant

The latest output from one of the big global weather models.

ninebeanrows

jo06555 wrote: »

Really wish i knew what that meant anyway are their any irish forecasters predicting widespread snow for irl when the uk are expected to get it and if not how come

We are currently very very far away from talking about 'widespread snow'.

There is building blocks to getting a cold synoptic. Last December was a freak event where everything went into the perfect slot for a month straight.

We are talking about potential changes that may lead to a cold spell in the medium - long term. When you get to that point you can begin to think of snowfall but as its only early November, that will be tough for a while yet.

Just keep watching but don't expect much. But ya can hope!

BLIZZARD7

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS pointing towards potential pattern change.

As is the ECM 12z, one to watch.





Dan :cool:

jo06555

Weathercheck wrote: »

We are currently very very far away from talking about 'widespread snow'.

There is building blocks to getting a cold synoptic. Last December was a freak event where everything went into the perfect slot for a month straight.

We are talking about potential changes that may lead to a cold spell in the medium - long term. When you get to that point you can begin to think of snowfall but as its only early November, that will be tough for a while yet.

Just keep watching but don't expect much. But ya can hope!

I will certainly be doing that

JFKIRELAND

Weathercheck - are we talking way out in FI or a bit closer?

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS pointing towards potential pattern change.

Not quite sure what you're looking at there, unless you mean a change to zonality. Right out to the 25th is increasingly wet and windy, with the jet over or just to our north. No hope of cold weather in that time frame on this model run.

Su Campu

jo06555 wrote: »

Really wish i knew what that meant anyway are their any irish forecasters predicting widespread snow for irl when the uk are expected to get it and if not how come

18 Z = 1800 UTC (GMT) The time the model run is started.

GFS = The model (Global Forecasting System). American global model, run four times a day out to 384 hours (16 days).

Musicman2000

Weathercheck wrote: »

tomorrow could be a BIG big day for winter hopers.

Greenland high being underplayed.

Expect big changes

Cant see it myself, but we shall wait and see:)