Winter 2011/2012

Blizzard 2010

Pangea wrote: »

I see Gerard Fleming on the news explaining that they have access to monthly forecasts and that no severe winter weather was in the pipeline.
I found it strange, since last week Evelyn Cusack basically said no can predict long range forecasts.

The fact is they cant and they dont. We still have 3 weeks left of November. Gerald Fleming will have a lot of explaining to do if we end up with a potent cold snap. He will hung, drawn and quartered. Met Eireann tend to use the E.C.M models and i am assuming he is basing his theory on this model.:D

lilzor

7c to 10c this night ... thats mean winter wont come on soon but when it will we can say goodbye to water , roads and all that kind of stuff

delw

Su Campu wrote: »

18 Z = 1800 UTC (GMT) The time the model run is started.

GFS = The model (Global Forecasting System). American global model, run four times a day out to 384 hours (16 days).

did not know this,learn something new every day,do they use/rely on it,how accurate is it for the US?

maquiladora

delw wrote: »

did not know this,learn something new every day,do they use/rely on it,how accurate is it for the US?

Its a global model so not only just used for America but people use it all over the world, all of the data from it is open and available so its very popular with internet weather ethusiasts. It is used in North American forecasting with other models like the NAM etc. You can check out its performance stats here, though Ive never really looked at this much myself.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/?modelperf=modelperf

Caff Caff

There are a few signs in nature, let us not forget that this is how hunter gatherers knew of an impending winter. Has anyone else seen holly bushes full of berries? I have and also, squirrels were busy busy diggin holes and burying acorns the last two days. My grandfather and father used to teach me this stuff when camping and hiking as a kid. To keep an eye out for natures signs. We all know they are there but we choose to look to science! Sure didn't a 100 strong tribe on an island called Sentinel between India and Burma follow a swarm of ants as they made their way up a mountain as it was a sign that something was coming and within a day the tsunami hit! They all survived. This was in the Sunday Times in 2005. The read signs in nature to survive. So, any signs in nature guys?

Villain

I think Gerard Fleming was trying to show that not ALL long range forecasts are prediciting the Cold and Snow that the media would have you believe. He said that they don't have enough confidence to use them in forecasts so I can't see how he can be lambasted if we do get a hard winter.

leahyl

Lads I just got a sudden burst of excitement - it was around this time last year that I got the same burst of excitement which means that we must be in for a severe arctic winter:D:p

Caff Caff

leahyl wrote: »

Lads I just got a sudden burst of excitement - it was around this time last year that I got the same burst of excitement which means that we must be in for a severe arctic winter:D:p

Did you "snow" yourself in this sudden burst of excitement?...

Elmer Blooker

I think Sahara dust is more likely than frost on car roofs at the weekend.
18,19 or even a 20 possible? It reached 16c yesterday at Casement.

Villain

People do realise that the meteorological season of Winter starts on the 1st of December and we rarely see Snow in November!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Villain wrote: »

People do realise that the meteorological season of Winter starts on the 1st of December and we rarely see Snow in November!

Shush now !

You will spoil the excitement :pac:

Villain

t|nt|n wrote: »

Shush now !

You will spoil the excitement :pac:

lol trying to save ppl from disappointment

average_runner

Caff Caff wrote: »

There are a few signs in nature, let us not forget that this is how hunter gatherers knew of an impending winter. Has anyone else seen holly bushes full of berries? I have and also, squirrels were busy busy diggin holes and burying acorns the last two days. My grandfather and father used to teach me this stuff when camping and hiking as a kid. To keep an eye out for natures signs. We all know they are there but we choose to look to science! Sure didn't a 100 strong tribe on an island called Sentinel between India and Burma follow a swarm of ants as they made their way up a mountain as it was a sign that something was coming and within a day the tsunami hit! They all survived. This was in the Sunday Times in 2005. The read signs in nature to survive. So, any signs in nature guys?

Or you could look at it this way, the berrie sign could mean we had a good spring before with lots of growth!! Makes more sense!!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Villain wrote: »

lol trying to save ppl from disappointment

You are definitely the Villain of this thread !!!







* Gets coat

WolfeIRE

06z GFS animation showing an Atlantic dominated setup (average-above average temps) for Ireland for the vast majority of November.

The charts used feature 850hpas (temperature at circa 1500m). Anything below -5c to -8c presents potential for wintry weather over Ireland. The date of each image is located on the top right

A pool of very cold air builds toward the end of the month over east Greenland but the Jet Stream position (over or slightly to our north) will ensure the Atlantic will remain dominant. This of course is all dependant on there being no significant change in future runs, which in itself is not guaranteed. Ultimately, the outlook for a widespread wintry outbreak this month remains 'unlikely'.

As Villain says, November is not a month associated with such outbreaks. 2010 was exceptional to say the least.

Charts taken from netweather


As add on, the UKMO does not see foresee any significant cooling in late Nov and early December

"UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Nov 2011 to Thursday 8 Dec 2011:

Generally unsettled conditions should bring occasional spells of rain interspersed with drier, clearer weather. Temperatures are likely to continue to be a little above average during the first part of the period, particularly in southern Britain. By early December, temperatures are likely to return closer to average, perhaps falling slightly below at times. Sunshine amounts for the period should be mainly near-normal, although perhaps above normal towards the north and west. Rainfall amounts for the same period look to be generally below average for the time of year, especially in the south and east of the UK."

andre2010

Thanks WOlfeire, although slightly depressing, i want snow

Speak Now

Snovember cancelled

only one

Bollox anyway lol

ronan45

Ha ha no snow lads I predicted it last winter. I told yas those last harsh winters were a fluke
ya can put ur salt and snow shovels away

"looks on smuggly"

Speak Now

ronan45 wrote: »

Ha ha no snow lads I predicted it last winter. I told yas those last harsh winters were a fluke
ya can put ur salt and snow shovels away

"looks on smuggly"

It's November 10th not April 01st

ronan45

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

It's November 10th not April 01st

Im only kidding Jerry. But my god wasnt it this time last year we were snowed in . Im sitting outside on my laptop lovely day. My spider senses tell me its gonna be snow free :cool:
I actually am hoping there is snow i love it especially around xmas day

Caff Caff

ronan45 wrote: »

Im only kidding Jerry. But my god wasnt it this time last year we were snowed in . Im sitting outside on my laptop lovely day. My spider senses tell me its gonna be snow free :cool:
I actually am hoping there is snow i love it especially around xmas day

It was November 27th or so last year that the snow began. It was chilly this time last year. There is still time to go and things are still as unpredictable as ever!:cool:

Caff Caff

average_runner wrote: »

Or you could look at it this way, the berrie sign could mean we had a good spring before with lots of growth!! Makes more sense!!!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8135035/Holly-berries-suggest-harsh-winter-on-the-way.html

lord lucan

Caff Caff wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8135035/Holly-berries-suggest-harsh-winter-on-the-way.html

:pac::pac::pac::pac:

pauldry

dont give up

mcriot29

how come joe b has not put out his euro winter forecast
i heard is was to be out end of oct any one know when its out or is he bnot doing one this year i know hes been dropping hints about dec but he has still not put out a clear forecast yet

Caff Caff

pauldry wrote: »

dont give up

Not a chance! Just sitting in Stephens Green in Dublin City here. bit nippy and the holly bushes are full and the swans are here. It's funny because people are here feeding the swans and talking about how they are a sign of winter coming. it doesn't mean snow but it was nice to see. winter's just the best and snow is a welcome extra for some.

Musicman2000

Just reading some of the latest updates today over on netweather, some are going for a mild December as well not good :mad:

pauldry

there will be snow on november 24th :rolleyes: keep hoping (not hoping as in hop hop)

RisteardoToole

im hearing in the UK that we are in for a harsh winter both there and accross ireland, yet most sources in ireland say we will have a mild winter,why do you think it will snow on the 24th ?