Winter 2011/2012

jo06555

only one wrote: »

Anything nice on the charts showing up?

Really wish I knew too lets hope so

thetonynator

You can see the GFS roll out here.

pistolpetes11

Any more word from Joe B , he has been very quite this year , shame he left Acuweather , he got a lot more exposure there.

davidsr20

The fog in the midlands is very bad tonight and the first fog this year too,it also seems quiet cold out too

dsmythy

Maybe some sleety stuff over the northern hills next weekend? After that wait and see time once more.

ninebeanrows

I think things are looking more hopeful in the medium term.

From Day 10 things show some potential with the chance of some sort of mid atlantic block.

Wild Bill

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think things are looking more hopeful in the medium term.

From Day 10 things show some potential with the chance of some sort of mid atlantic block.

I do love a mid Atlantic block.

BEASTERLY

The 0z while not overly cold is promising as it's heading in the right direction with the NAO. But those heights to our north are still far too low for my liking.

BEASTERLY

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The 0z while not overly cold is promising as it's heading in the right direction with the NAO. But those heights to our north are still far too low for my liking.

Mild business as usual with a euro high according to the 6z GFS

Su Campu

I've heard the term "phantom" cold before, but I've never actually seen it in the charts! The friendly ghost is currently over Arctic Canada!

Tindie

There is some snow for Scotland on Friday!

Here a week ahead forecast
http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/0/jDWpQL8Fs4A

and last year forcast
http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/203/NvaaaQii8GU

jo06555

Tindie wrote: »

There is some snow for Scotland on Friday!

Here a week ahead forecast
http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/0/jDWpQL8Fs4A

and last year forcast
http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/203/NvaaaQii8GU

The next couple of weeks should be interesting

Musicman2000

jo06555 wrote: »

The next couple of weeks should be interesting

Thats if that Euro high dosent rear its ugly head again, and looking at FI this morning its could well make a return bringing more mild muck threw december

Redsunset

Yeah nothing to get excited about at all.No real action till the New Year.

dsmythy

Snow in Scotland not exactly an unusual event. At least it signals some actual winter happenings for you snowbies.

bb1234567

Accuweather saying a high of 4 -real feel -3 in dublin on december 2nd and a low of 1 real feel -8. ive noticed accuweather nearly always forecast about 2 degrees higher than the temp ever is, so id say it'll be a high of 3 in dublin that day.and then it says rain overnight, wouldnt that turn to snow if they're saying itll be only 1 degree. Finally a definite change to colder weather soon,winters coming!

bb1234567

Mark Vogan has just posted that there is 'Large Scale change in the European pattern in the next 10 days!' - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AaQ0k_BaBE

pad199207

ah here dont get hyped up on what accuweather say expecially that far out my friend:)

But yes theres some signs (it was hints a while agao ) now of a colder trend

thetonynator

bb1234567 wrote: »

Accuweather saying a high of 4 -real feel -3 in dublin on december 2nd and a low of 1 real feel -8. ive noticed accuweather nearly always forecast about 2 degrees higher than the temp ever is, so id say it'll be a high of 3 in dublin that day.and then it says rain overnight, wouldnt that turn to snow if they're saying itll be only 1 degree. Finally a definite change to colder weather soon,winters coming!

Except that it's 2 weeks away and will be saying something completely different by tomorrow!

We disregard FI charts, but somehow we don't disregard forecasts made from FI charts!!!

jirafa

The Russian seasonal model is hinting to a mild winter for the UK

redsteveireland

jirafa wrote: »

The Russian seasonal model is hinting to a mild winter for the UK

Blasphemy! :pac:

Gonzo

it's hinting at winters similiar to what we had for over 10 years before 2009 when there was non stop atlantic mild wet muck in western Europe and cold, snowy plunges from Russia into Eastern Europe and down into Greece & Turkey?

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

it's hinting at winters similiar to what we had for over 10 years before 2009 when there was non stop atlantic mild wet muck in western Europe and cold, snowy plunges from Russia into Eastern Europe and down into Greece & Turkey?

Joe bastardi spot on so far about the cold being centred over eastern and south eastern europe

jirafa

Below normal levels of Precipitation for British Isles.

snow ghost

This morning I was greeted by the ominous spectacle – not seen for many moons - of the notorious local weather crow gazing at me intently through the window.

Yes, my black feathery-arsed friend had returned to warn me of perilous weather conditions that lay ahead; far beyond the view of human eyes and science.

His beady eyes traced around the window looking for the last of the spiders hiding there, then he looked forlornly at me through the glass saying “give me some of that nosh you leave out for those lard-arse robins”.

It looks like wintry weather is not too far away… you have been warned. :eek:

Su Campu

snow ghost wrote: »

This morning I was greeted by the ominous spectacle – not seen for many moons - of the notorious local weather crow gazing at me intently through the window.

Yes, my black feathery-arsed friend had returned to warn me of perilous weather conditions that lay ahead; far beyond the view of human eyes and science.

His beady eyes traced around the window looking for the last of the spiders hiding there, then he looked forlornly at me through the glass saying “give me some of that nosh you leave out for those lard-arse robins”.

It looks like wintry weather is not too far away… you have been warned. :eek:

I moved this post to this thread Snow Ghost, as there are enough winter threads already.

snow ghost

Thanks Su, what would one do without you. :rolleyes:

Redsunset

Ah poor Piers,:D

ON THE QUESTION "IT'S MILDER NOW (18 Nov as I write) THAN WE THOUGHT SO WILL THE COLD BLASTS COME?". I say:
Although the first 10 days of Nov were mild as we predicted it is true the second ten days, are/have been less cold than we expected. It is worth noting that:-

(i) as we warned would be the case standard Met have had a lot of problems (ie forecast changes) in this period (since 11th Nov).

(ii) the Lows tracking to South of UK into France/Spain / Med in the last week to now were certainly 'trying' to do what we had expected and then MetO models were struggling 2 days out.

(iii) These type of transition periods are difficult and were lower confidence. Of the 8 periods through the month confidences and results are:
1-4 85% YES
5-7 80% YES
8-10 85% YES
11-14 75% NO
15-17 70% NO
18-22 65%
23-25 75%
26-30 75%
Confidences in December are generally higher than the average of November.

(iv) Although it has got colder in the 10-20th the reason for the delay to much colder may be random noise or more likely;-
(a) events on the sun we hadn't grasped &/or
(b)some unknown new things beyond SLAT6b we have yet to discover. On this we are in the unusual situation that both of the TWO ways (in this case) of looking at the present from situations in the past point to cold but we don't have it.

(v) We will continue to watch closely and note there is an encouraging large mass of cold air East of Berlin into Russia extending down to Greece - Athens reached only 9C on ~16th and air over the Atlantic is also colder. Britain is at present in a milder 'tongue' of air, but a switch to colder later is still very possible so the forecast for later remains.

(vi) We will report on any findings or changes on CR and on http://www.weatheraction.com comment sections.

(via)(20-11-11) I have put some more notes - and there are readers comments - on
http://bit.ly/sOFjJe
More will follow later on 20-11-11



Thank you for your support without which our forecasts could not be produced.

Piers Corbyn

dsmythy

Dastardly sun playing tricks on Piers.

thetonynator

Given the blandness of the current model runs, I decided a trip back less than 12 months down memory lane was in order! (Not my photos, all credit to Kilkenny Weather!!!

Kilkenny, Dec 6th 2010