Winter 2011/2012

John mac

Will La Nina have any effect on this winters temps? linkie

lubie76

[/QUOTE]I'll give credit where credit is due and whilst I respect and enjoy MT's forecasts I think they lack accuracy.
It's always what we want to hear, but not often what happens![/Quote]

That's not true at all, last year MT predicted the severe cold snap at end of nov as well as the winter storm from mid Dec weeks in advance and was extremely accurate re dates while also emphasising that it was never a cert!

John.Icy

screamer wrote: »

They've been more accurate than any MET eireann forecast.

Met Eireann don't try predict snow two weeks in advance.

TheMilkyPirate

Iancar29 wrote: »

Back on topic....

Latest run looks like a mess to be honest, nothing looking right at all from the original predicted cooling trend from the 1st that is.

When did the thread go off topic?

delw

Iancar29 wrote: »

Back on topic....

Latest run looks like a mess to be honest, nothing looking right at all from the original predicted cooling trend from the 1st that is.

bit like start of the year when models couldn't agree/get grip on cold so everything kept getting pushed back week by week?

Pangea

To think that this time last year our rural areas were crispy with frost and set for some very cold nights, now to look out tonight and see average temperatures just seems like a big waste for this time of year

shel n

hi guys i'm new to this, can someone tell me how to reply to a certain comment? thanks and i hope it will snow but it wont stick around for too long lol

Redsunset

Hi and welcome to the Madness. Simply click on quote button to respond to certain individuals, which is located just on right hand side of posts
Anyway back to the forecasting and Matt Hugo has this to say,
The latest EC MJO (Madden- Julian Oscillation) is fcst to progress to a weak phase 3 to 4 over the next 10 to 20 days = +ve NAO conditions 38 minutes ago via web

That is all.

shel n wrote: »

hi guys i'm new to this, can someone tell me how to reply to a certain comment? thanks and i hope it will snow but it wont stick around for too long lol

Redsunset

One word, "HORRIBLE"
meaning zonal, Atlantic in control,wet and windy weather all the way

WolfeIRE

Hi Red.

Most people here do not understand what those 500mb maps are saying. Any chance you could briefly explain why they are horrible?

EDIT:
Thanks Red

WolfeIRE

UKMO outlook

UK Outlook for Sunday 27 Nov 2011 to Tuesday 6 Dec 2011:

It will be a largely unsettled period across the bulk of the UK, with the wettest and windiest weather towards the northwest, with gales and spells of heavy rain or showers most likely here. Showers may turn to snow over the higher ground of Scotland. There will, however, be some drier and more settled interludes, especially towards the southeast of the country. Temperatures are likely to be around the seasonal average, but some places may see slightly below average temperatures at times, especially later in the period. This will bring an increased risk of frost and fog forming overnight during any more settled spells, as well as a heightened risk of snow over higher ground in the north of the UK.


UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Dec 2011 to Wednesday 21 Dec 2011:

The generally unsettled theme looks set to continue through the early to middle part of December, with spells of wet and windy weather separated by some drier interludes. Temperatures will be largely around average, perhaps becoming slightly above average, by mid-December. However, some colder spells are still to be expected at times. Even with average or slightly above average temperatures, frosts are still likely, particularly on the clearer and more settled nights. Rainfall amounts will be around average, with the wettest weather likely across western parts and some snow probable over the higher ground of northern UK, particularly during the colder spells. Sunshine amounts are also likely to be around or slightly above average in this rather changeable regime.
Updated: 1122 on Tue 22 Nov 2011

screamer

John.Icy wrote: »

Met Eireann don't try predict snow two weeks in advance.

No, they wait till it's on the ground, and then tell us its there. Anyways, looks like winter 2011 will be more like the winters we were used to, wet, windy and cool, and that's fine, I'll keep an eye on this thread from time to time, and if I see my badger buddies, I'll let you all know.

mcriot29

delw wrote: »

Iancar29 wrote: »

Back on topic....

Latest run looks like a mess to be honest, nothing looking right at all from the original predicted cooling trend from the 1st that is.

bit like start of the year when models couldn't agree/get grip on cold so everything kept getting pushed back week by week?[/Quote


Warm normal winter ahead in the history of cold winters even in mini ice age there has never been 3 cold ones in a row.
Also looks like irish weatheronlineare gone no updates for weeks now pity they stood out as one if the best weather websites in the world.
Joe b is gone quiet in regards to uk ireland winter due to him been totally wrong no cold frist half of winter like he said.
Now also ao index seems to be gone back to wat it was before 2008
Can jan produce a 47 event i doubt it very much i think ireland may see less snow this year then before 2008 .
Piers also is a fool reason he said well cold dident come but he said due to high pressure being in wrong place ok but he forgot to add he said ao index would go low too cause cold to push south which means he was way off on 2 forecasts only .
Mark vogan so far has been doing well on his forecast along with peter from irishweatheronline.
So will vogan and peter be correct in saying main cold in jan if they are i wont be looking at joe b or piers next year as there rubbish
What annoys me is the way joe b has gone quiet on his winter forecast no updates

iwillrocku

I have lost where everyone is :(
Do people think it will snow or not and when

BEASTERLY

This evenings ECM and GFS are not bad, and end to the Atlantic conveyer belt and euro high. Best we can hope for at this stage!

mcriot29

iwillrocku wrote: »

I have lost where everyone is :(
Do people think it will snow or not and when

Wont snow in the next 3 weeks that for sure chance of snow best in end of dec and jan saying that i feel this winter will be either a snowless winter or a winter worse then last year .
But odds are very much against another very cold winter we have never had 3 back to back winters not even in 1700s
Im going for a mild winter
However theres talk of a big dip in ao index in dec so time will tell .

bb1234567

mcriot29 wrote: »

Wont snow in the next 3 weeks that for sure chance of snow best in end of dec and jan saying that i feel this winter will be either a snowless winter or a winter worse then last year .
But odds are very much against another very cold winter we have never had 3 back to back winters not even in 1700s
Im going for a mild winter
However theres talk of a big dip in ao index in dec so time will tell .

im like you,i think this winter will either be like 1943 style winter or a very mild one...or just maybe like 09/10, i think if its a very cold winter itll begin late like in late december or new years.just a gut feeling,no reason. but why are odds very much against a cold winter? 08/09 was hardly a very harsh winter, a bit of snow and slightly below avg..we've had 2 very harsh winters in a row..not 3.
i think there seems to be a much higher chance of this winter being cold, many forecasters think itll be a cold winter! did you see my list?:P any reason odds in favour of a mild winter other than ''you never get more than 3 cold winters in a row''

bb1234567

Another forecaster going for a cold winter-weather logistics uk.
'' A deep cold snap over the East coast of the US points toward an abrupt and intense Arctic-type weather scenario in the UK in 14 to 21 days time. This deep freeze may see temperatures plummet, with significant widespread snowfall and perhaps blizzard across Britain during mid-December 2011.''

http://www.weatherlogistics.com/seasonalforecast/?p=1452
^The forecast.
Could only be good news i suppose.:D
But i got a bit of bad new weather services international,said in their autumn winter forecast that october,november and december would be way below avg with above avg snowfall in nov and dec,and then jan and feb would be above avg. now theyve changed it after they saw how wrong they got october and november which were way above avg and are now saying itll be a very mild winter, saying dec,jan and feb will all be above avg.:(

well theres some good and bad news..make of it what you will..dont really know much about either forecasting agencys record...but seems to me wsi were just a bit scared by how wrong their autumn forecast was as it was way above avg, and are only changing the winter forecast to mild because this autumn was extremely mild.

thetonynator

bb1234567 wrote: »

im like you,i think this winter will either be like 1943 style winter or a very mild one...or just maybe like 09/10, i think if its a very cold winter itll begin late like in late december or new years.just a gut feeling,no reason. but why are odds very much against a cold winter? 08/09 was hardly a very harsh winter, a bit of snow and slightly below avg..we've had 2 very harsh winters in a row..not 3.
i think there seems to be a much higher chance of this winter being cold, many forecasters think itll be a cold winter! did you see my list?:P any reason odds in favour of a mild winter other than ''you never get more than 3 cold winters in a row''

Winters don't have memories, and probability doesn't affect the weather: the last two winters have absolutely no bearing on this one.

Harps

A lot of people have obviously been very spoiled after the past 2 years (myself included of course), a lengthy cold spell like that happens very rarely in this country and in the previous 20 years we barely had a single spell that lasted more than a few days. I'd gladly take a repeat of 08/09, might not have had the extreme cold of the past two but we got plenty of snow spread throughout the winter here which is a lot better than what I grew up with in the 90's. 2000 and 95 are the only two years before the last few that had any noteworthy snowfall at all

Nothing too interesting showing up at the moment from my limited knowledge, maybe some snow for the hills around here on Friday but nothing too exciting. The netweather model thread is a bit soul destroying to read through but very negative on the cold front in there as well

Su Campu

Can I ask why some people become almost hysterical when a model run shows little in the way of a cold spell? It this were the end of January then I'd understand the panic and impatience, but it's only November!

People need to take it easy or there'll be a huge increase in cardiac emergencies in the run up to Christmas!

mike65

The only people profiting out of this nonsense are those selling snow chains, snow boots and the like, most which shall sit used this winter I shall suggest. Oh people who charge for inaccurate weather predictions are still doing all right no doubt

bb1234567

thetonynator wrote: »

Winters don't have memories, and probability doesn't affect the weather: the last two winters have absolutely no bearing on this one.

thats kind of what i was saying, it was the guy i quoted who was saying this winter would be mild because he had 3 cold winters in a row already and this being the fourth would be mild.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Su Campu wrote: »

Can I ask why some people become almost hysterical when a model run shows little in the way of a cold spell? It this were the end of January then I'd understand the panic and impatience, but it's only November!

People need to take it easy or there'll be a huge increase in cardiac emergencies in the run up to Christmas!

The Fantasy Island thread is where toys should be ejected from the pram :pac:

bb1234567

mike65 wrote: »

The only people profiting out of this nonsense are those selling snow chains, snow boots and the like, most which shall sit used this winter I shall suggest. Oh people who charge for inaccurate weather predictions are still doing all right no doubt

think you mean *unused*:P

mike65

Indeed!

mcriot29

mike65 wrote: »

Indeed!

It been 2 bad winters not 3 this will be number 3 if it hapoens im hoping for this to be the worst so far like madden said but as i said i feel its either going to be a normal winter or a really snowy 63 or 47 winter .
And most long term forecasts done in oct went for cold nov dec and mild jan feb so thats wht people are pissed of as nov is just over and dec looks crapy mild too .
Lets hop from mid dec cold comes

thetonynator

bb1234567 wrote: »

thats kind of what i was saying, it was the guy i quoted who was saying this winter would be mild because he had 3 cold winters in a row already and this being the fourth would be mild.

Sorry I meant to quote the post you quoted, not your post.

Wild Bill

At the moment it's over 13c, dry and windy; 10pm 23rd November.

Not unusual this month as we head for some sort of record warm November?

I want to believe this will change but those westerlies have been with us since May.

derekon

mcriot29 wrote: »

It been 2 bad winters not 3 this will be number 3 if it hapoens im hoping for this to be the worst so far like madden said but as i said i feel its either going to be a normal winter or a really snowy 63 or 47 winter .
And most long term forecasts done in oct went for cold nov dec and mild jan feb so thats wht people are pissed of as nov is just over and dec looks crapy mild too .
Lets hop from mid dec cold comes

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Thank you

D