Winter 2011/2012

mcriot29

derekon wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

It been 2 bad winters not 3 this will be number 3 if it hapoens im hoping for this to be the worst so far like madden said but as i said i feel its either going to be a normal winter or a really snowy 63 or 47 winter .
And most long term forecasts done in oct went for cold nov dec and mild jan feb so thats wht people are pissed of as nov is just over and dec looks crapy mild too .
Lets hop from mid dec cold comes

Please use the following in your posts:

1. Coherent sentences
2. Full stops
3. Commas
4. Correct spelling , I note at least 4 spelling mistakes above
5. Structure

Thank you

D

Sorry sir dident know i was at school .
This is about winter 2011 not a grammer course .

derekon

What a difference a year makes!

24th November 2010

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=11&day=16&year=2010&map=3&hour=12

24th November 2011

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

Look at the difference between 2010 and 2011 ! Darks blues everywhere in 2010 however in 2011, the bulk of Europe is emerged in much milder air.

You might also note that this time last year, the magical 528 Dam line is draped right over Ireland and touching the Cork/Kerry coast meaning anything north of this line will fall as snow.

Simply put, there is just not enough cold air in Europe at the moment to even talk of snow in Ireland.

A quick check on some city temperatures at 11pm tonight in Europe illustrates this point:

1. Dublin - +13oC
2. Oslo - +8oC
3. Stockholm - +5oc

So lets put it in context, if Scandinavia is this mild at the end of November, why would be anticipating snow in Ireland? Its extremely mild at the moment to say the least.

Mark Vogan on his blog is of the view that from the first week of December, very cold air will "bleed" from the Arctic towards Norway and Sweden and that by the middle of December 2011, Britain and Ireland will be firmly under this arctic air which will in turn herald the first snowfalls of the winter season.

Time will tell if he is right or if himself and Piers Corbyn will have egg on their faces (Piers has predicted a severe cold spell from the 28th Nov-28th December however the latest models on view don't back his forecast up one iota)

The jury is now officially out on whether we will have a cold winter or whether Ireland will return to the non-descript mild mucky Atlantic winters that characterised the years 2002-2008 inclusive.

We live in hope..................

D

pistolpetes11

If you bring the date from last years chart onto today's day of the month the 24th look how much milder Greenland and the east coast newfoundland last year compared to this year

Last year greenland ranged from -2 to -12 uppers

Last year NFL ranged from -2 to + 0 uppers


This year Greenland ranges from -24 to -12 uppers

This year NFL ranges from -16 to -8 uppers ,


If you go back to the 01/10/11 you will see -26 uppers over green land and -8 over NFL , if you check day by day you will see that all the cold over GL and Nfl slowly starts to bleed into Scandinavia day by day and then into Europe .

The setups seem very similar but this time around we look like we're a month behind , I know there a lot more science behind it that the simple little scenario I have put up but at +96 on the gfs 18z there is -28 uppers over greenland and most Scandinavia is under -4 ,At + 196 the cold is really starting to move on from Greenland with a lot of -16 upper sitting just above scandinavia .

Last year it made its way across and filtered down throughout europe hopefully a somewhat similar situation happens this time around .

Rebelbrowser

MTC is using the "s" word in the outlook part of today's forecast.......

pistolpetes11

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

MTC is using the "s" word in the outlook part of today's forecast.......

and it will be melted by the time it hits the ground

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

and it will be melted by the time it hits the ground

I am higher than the ground, it will stick on me so !! YAY !!!

*straw clutching*

:pac:

Elmer Blooker

Look how far east that Atlantic warm front is, there's no hope whatsoever now for winter 10-11.
* This wont change so no replies saying we still have Dec, Jan and Feb to go.

leahyl

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Look how far east that Atlantic warm front is, there's no hope whatsoever now for winter 10-11.
* This wont change so no replies saying we still have Dec, Jan and Feb to go.

How do you know this for sure??

dexter647

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Look how far east that Atlantic warm front is, there's no hope whatsoever now for winter 10-11.
* This wont change so no replies saying we still have Dec, Jan and Feb to go.

You should go into the lrf business so... you'd make loads of cash:D

Elmer Blooker

This is the sort of chart I remember from the snowless pre 08 winters - An Azores high extending into Europe and Atlantic depressions as far north as the Arctic circle, in other words a +NAO with the jet stream obviously well to the north of us.
I think March may well be the coldest month of the "winter" going on past observations.

Deep Easterly

On this day last year, the first cold snap of winter 10/11 began to take a firmer grip over the hills and bogs of Eireann:

Vedur.is 06 850 hPa temp chart sequence for the 24th Nov 2010:


Type 1 Pm air mass gradually made its way southwards behind a weak showery trough that had passed down over the country during the morning. Despite this, surface max temperatures were only moderately low at best (mainly between 5c/8c) with showers mainly confined to coastal regions during the afternoon and evening where they fell mainly as rain or hail.

Analysis chart for northwest Europe at 1200 UTC:



Satellite Image of same region at the same time shows relatively clearer if still lightly unstable polar air behind showery trough off the southwest coast:



Hourly Dp (dewpoint) temperature at Malin Head between the 23rd and 25th:

Data: Ogimet

A notable drop during the afternoon of the 24th as the colder air mass moved down. It became relatively mild later on the 25th for a wee while but by the 27th, temps took a huge fall once again with snow showers moving down over much of the country.

Meanwhile, one year later, a temperature range of just 3c over the country on the latest 10am reports, ranging between 10c & 13c!

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

pistolpetes11

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Look how far east that Atlantic warm front is, there's no hope whatsoever now for winter 10-11.
* This wont change so no replies saying we still have Dec, Jan and Feb to go.

Winter 10-11 was last year was it not ?

Give some science on your claim ?

gothwalk

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

This is the sort of chart I remember from the snowless pre 08 winters - An Azores high extending into Europe and Atlantic depressions as far north as the Arctic circle, in other words a +NAO with the jet stream obviously well to the north of us.
I think March may well be the coldest month of the "winter" going on past observations.

Thing is, weather is a chaotic system. You can't reliably say "we had three weeks of pattern A in year X, and then two weeks of pattern B, so having had three weeks of pattern A in year Y, it'll go on to pattern B again".

People really don't seem to get this, so let me try a couple of ways to explain it.

1) We can't measure current conditions accurately. No matter how perfect an individual weather station is, there are lots and LOTS of places in between that and the next station that aren't measured. The conditions in those locations can be extrapolated using isobars, isotherms, etc, but these are, in fact, guesses. There are all kinds of blips and twists in them that we can't measure. So even if pattern A this year looks like pattern A three years ago, at the detail level, it's completely different, and will go on to do something different.

2) Looking at it another way, if a given sequence of conditions had a predictable outcome, then as soon as the same conditions occurred a second time, we'd be into a permanent loop. It's pretty clear that this is not the case, therefore just because pattern A has re-occurred does not mean that pattern B will follow.

This sounds like I'm saying "all long-range forecasting is doomed to failure", but that's not strictly the case - it's just extremely difficult, and can't be done from short-term observations.

tzfrantic

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Look how far east that Atlantic warm front is, there's no hope whatsoever now for winter 10-11.
* This wont change so no replies saying we still have Dec, Jan and Feb to go.

wow this could change retard we still have december it could change easily wow.

Deep Easterly

tzfrantic wrote: »

wow this could change retard we still have december it could change easily wow.

:rolleyes:

irish1967

tzfrantic wrote: »

wow this could change retard we still have december it could change easily wow.

Not nice.

Elmer Blooker

wow....... you a**hole......... wow

tzfrantic

what you posting that it is 100 percent certainty there will be no cold.That deserves to let you know that you not right.and me calling you retard that was just a way to get a point across that you cannot say with 100 percent certainty as the chart could easily change

Lucreto

James Madden has updated the site

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Still expecting widespread snow.

Deep Easterly

tzfrantic wrote: »

me calling you retard that was just a way to get a point across that you cannot say with 100 percent certainty as the chart could easily change

There are many ways to get a point across without personally insulting people.

sam34

elmer blooker and tzfrantic banned for personal abuse.

everyone else, back on topic please.

only one

I like snow

rhonin

Snow withdrawal symptoms are really affecting some people in here!!

WolfeIRE

Cannot see where James is getting this from. Can certainly see temperatures returning to near or slightly below average but no signs of widespread snowfall or a sustained blocking pattern.

"As I have stated many times throughout this year, I am expecting a more sustained blocking pattern in comparison to last year, that will bring frequent cold and above normal snow to many parts of the UK and Ireland this winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that snowfall or temperature records could be broken within this defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole. I still expect many northern regions, Scotland, and parts of Ireland to experience the worst of these conditions.

Scotland will begin to see snowfall mainly across high ground as we head into this weekend. Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December. The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with deep widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland. Any required updates will be posted accordingly."

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Iancar29

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Cannot see where James is getting this from. Can certainly see temperatures returning to near or slightly below average but no signs of widespread snowfall or a sustained blocking pattern.

"As I have stated many times throughout this year, I am expecting a more sustained blocking pattern in comparison to last year, that will bring frequent cold and above normal snow to many parts of the UK and Ireland this winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that snowfall or temperature records could be broken within this defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole. I still expect many northern regions, Scotland, and parts of Ireland to experience the worst of these conditions.

Scotland will begin to see snowfall mainly across high ground as we head into this weekend. Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December. The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with deep widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland. Any required updates will be posted accordingly."

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

I agree... im positive... but not THAT Much! ha ...still though... * CONTINUES SNOW DANCE * :pac:

Iancar29

Hoping for some frosty mornings this weekend!


WOuld recommend UCD's new updated climate page with its own charts now

http://mathsci.ucd.ie/met/mcc-forecast.html

Birdnuts

Theres no sign of winter FTFF going on the latest models - not too bothered really since I'd much prefer the white stuff on the other side of Christmas when things are quieter:)

esposito

Birdnuts wrote: »

Theres no sign of winter FTFF going on the latest models - not too bothered really since I'd much prefer the white stuff on the other side of Christmas when things are quieter:)

Yeah, let's just all accept that we won't get snow til' after Christmas. New Years Day snow would be nice!

pistolpetes11

Birdnuts wrote: »

Theres no sign of winter FTFF going on the latest models - not too bothered really since I'd much prefer the white stuff on the other side of Christmas when things are quieter:)

There is interludes between cold and mild but to say there is no sign of winter is wrong.

More Cold than mild at that , not serious cold but sub zero uppers any way

Birdnuts

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

There is interludes between cold and mild but to say there is no sign of winter is wrong.

More Cold than mild at that , not serious cold but sub zero uppers any way

This Novemeber is on course to be one of the mildest ever!!