Winter 2011/2012

Su Campu

What I find amazing is that everybody's talking about "blocking" setting up for the winter. Well I hate to say it but we've had blocking for the past month, except it's been centred over Europe, and has therefore led to our very mild conditions. People only (want to) seem to recognise blocking as meaning cold northeasterlies for us, but blocking is blocking, no matter where it happens.

James et al says we're going to get the magic shift in the blocking centre towards our northwest, without giving any scientific reasoning for why this should happen. I think that's playing to the crowd a bit, telling people what they want to hear, and trying to be the one to make the news. And hey, so what if it's not like last year, they still stick in their "Scottish get out of jail" clause, saying "parts of UK" will see snow, and then using a flurry in the Scottish highlands as proof that he was correct.

Su Campu

bb1234567 wrote: »

are they both banned from weather forum forever? or is it just temp ban?

tzfrantic and Elmer Brooker were banned for 7 days due to personal abuse.

I would advise people to have a read of the Forum Charter, in which it states that any personal abuse will be met by a ban. Sometimes things can get heated in here, but everyone's entitled to voice their opinion in a courteous and respectful manner.

Let's all get along, and make it a winter to remember!

opinion guy

Su Campu wrote: »

Sometimes things can get heated in here

November has been very warm its true.....

WolfeIRE

Hooter23 wrote: »

http://twitpic.com/7ioave :eek:

Very cold winter still coming according to this piers corbyn guy

Former UKMO forecaster Paul Hudson mentions Weather Action's forecast in his blog. The comments make interesting reading too

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

Speaking of the UK Met Office they do not foresee widespread cold before 23 Dec

UK Outlook for Friday 9 Dec 2011 to Friday 23 Dec 2011:

The generally unsettled westerly theme looks set to continue through the early to middle part of December, with spells of wet and windy weather separated by some drier interludes. Temperatures for the period should exhibit a trend towards average or slightly above average values by mid-December, however some colder interludes are still likely to occur. Even with average or slightly above average temperatures, frosts are still likely, particularly on the clearer and more settled nights. Rainfall amounts will be around average, with the wettest weather likely across western parts and with some snow probable over the higher ground of northern UK, particularly during the colder spells. Sunshine amounts are also likely to be around or slightly above average in this rather changeable regime.

Updated: 1211 on Thu 24 Nov 2011

caseyann

Who needs ice and snow when we have the ice cold tempatures flowing from the doors of our Dáil

Strangegravy

In a few of the weather models at the moment, is the Jet Stream starting to appear more south over Africa in the current runs? Don't remember seeing any of it being that far south over the last month, but now it looks like it's starting to appear there quite prominently in some of the models, seems like it's starting to split... or am I just seeing things!

Thoughts?

mcriot29

Strangegravy wrote: »

In a few of the weather models at the moment, is the Jet Stream starting to appear more south over Africa in the current runs? Don't remember seeing any of it being that far south over the last month, but now it looks like it's starting to appear there quite prominently in some of the models, seems like it's starting to split... or am I just seeing things!

Thoughts?

I havent seen it go south yet like last year but the polar jet gains power from december on also we need a negative ao and nao for the jet to budge from where its stuck at present .

doccy

Su Campu wrote: »

James et al says we're going to get the magic shift in the blocking centre towards our northwest, without giving any scientific reasoning for why this should happen. I think that's playing to the crowd a bit, telling people what they want to hear, and trying to be the one to make the news. And hey, so what if it's not like last year, they still stick in their "Scottish get out of jail" clause, saying "parts of UK" will see snow, and then using a flurry in the Scottish highlands as proof that he was correct.

In fairness although you are probably right in general, thats not what James says in his post above. He claiming snow at lower levels and includes Ireland.

Alas we're moving out of FI and into more reliable forecasting, and so far the signs aren't great.

Redsunset

Jesus wept!!
Super Scandi high


Wow



510 dam over us





Now all we need is the coming Jan to follow suit.:)

Maybe she will.

pistolpetes11

redsunset wrote: »

Jesus wept!!
Super Scandi high


Wow



510 dam over us





Now all we need is the coming Jan to follow suit.:)

Maybe she will.

Feck you anyway for a second there I thought these were the latest charts :mad:

MUSEIST

I was literally a month old when those charts were happening. It sad that I can't remember any of it:(

Strangegravy

mcriot29 wrote: »

Strangegravy wrote: »

In a few of the weather models at the moment, is the Jet Stream starting to appear more south over Africa in the current runs? Don't remember seeing any of it being that far south over the last month, but now it looks like it's starting to appear there quite prominently in some of the models, seems like it's starting to split... or am I just seeing things!

Thoughts?

I havent seen it go south yet like last year but the polar jet gains power from december on also we need a negative ao and nao for the jet to budge from where its stuck at present .

Just looking there and both indices look like they could go negative around the 1st Dec, is this where most long rangers are getting their optimism from?

Danno

Oh, please let this mild continue for another 20 days or so... I hope it lashes rain non-stop... all carried in by strong SW winds screeching all the way to Sweeden... let the Czech High rebuild under a -10c 850hPa airmass... then on December 17th let the eastern march commence... for then folks there will be another white Christmas and a bitter January with snowfall abound to follow... patience.. patience...

blackius

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

redsunset wrote: »

Jesus wept!!
Super Scandi high


Wow



510 dam over us





Now all we need is the coming Jan to follow suit.:)

Maybe she will.

Feck you anyway for a second there I thought these were the latest charts :mad:

As sweet as it looks,that wasn't as good in terms of prolonged cold and snow as the month of it we had that started a year ago tomorrow night the 26th.
The beauty of a mid Atlantic block that consistently tilts such that you have prolonged norteasterlies is you have a longer sustained cold.
For those of us under 60 last November was the worst in our living memory in the east.
I certainly don't ever recall snow on the ground 2ft deep at times around arklow lasting over a month non stop.

If you're looking for a repeat of that,it's a big ask.

DOCARCH

Danno wrote: »

Oh, please let this mild continue for another 20 days or so... I hope it lashes rain non-stop... all carried in by strong SW winds screeching all the way to Sweeden... let the Czech High rebuild under a -10c 850hPa airmass... then on December 17th let the eastern march commence... for then folks there will be another white Christmas and a bitter January with snowfall abound to follow... patience.. patience...

I'll take that!

DOCARCH

FWIW, light snow now being reported at Inverness, 1c there.

First snow of the winter in UK or Ireland at sea level (or thereabouts) I think?

Derfil

Is Jesus weeping not a bad thing? Surely those charts are great!

redsunset wrote: »

Jesus wept!!
Super Scandi high


Wow



510 dam over us





Now all we need is the coming Jan to follow suit.:)

Maybe she will.

DOCARCH

Derfil wrote: »

Is Jesus weeping not a bad thing? Surely those charts are great!

Great? Yes......if it was around the start of January 1987! Look at the date!

irish1967

This time last year we were just about to get hit by this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sA4EnDjWSs

nerrad1983

Great Video, What a difference a year makes eh:(

Really hoping for some more snow this year!

Blizzard 2010

irish1967 wrote: »

This time last year we were just about to get hit by this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sA4EnDjWSs

Oh those memories:(

irish1967

I still laugh every time i think of the night of the big thunder snow last year. Every time there was a blatter of thunder or a lightening flash there were 100 comments saying 'wow' or 'bang' or 'OMG'... lmao ! what a classic night on here that was.

only one

irish1967 wrote: »

I still laugh every time i think of the night of the big thunder snow last year. Every time there was a blatter of thunder or a lightening flash there were 100 comments saying 'wow' or 'bang' or 'OMG'... lmao ! what a classic night on here that was.

I wouldn't know im from cork lol. We don't get snow

WolfeIRE

Snow falling in Scotland alright

http://www.snoweye.com/?page=uk

DOCARCH

Ahh...lovely snow.

http://www.winterhighland.com/cams/aviemore/aviemorevideo.php

Snow....I miss you!!!

delw

irish1967 wrote: »

This time last year we were just about to get hit by this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sA4EnDjWSs

Thanks irish,great vid,heres hoping for new snow memories this winter

jon burrows

Wow, I started this thread back on the 17th of June, almost 192000 views now. A lot of people out there hoping for Snow.

WolfeIRE

jon burrows wrote: »

Wow, I started this thread back on the 17th of June, almost 192000 views now. A lot of people out there hoping for Snow.

So, it's your fault Jon!

You told us there would be a winter in 2011/12!!!

:P

Tom Cruises Left Nut

WolfeIRE wrote: »

So, it's your fault Jon!

You told us there would be a winter in 2011/12!!!

:P

*shakes fist*

WolfeIRE

Latest from the UKMO

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Nov 2011 to Friday 9 Dec 2011:

It will be a largely unsettled period across the bulk of the UK, with the wettest and windiest weather generally towards the northwest, with gales and spells of heavy rain or showers most likely here. Showers will turn to snow at times over high ground in the north, perhaps falling to lower levels on occasion, with a low chance of this also threatening central parts of the UK at times. There will, however, be some drier and more settled interludes too, especially towards the south of the country later in the period. Temperatures are likely to be around or a little below the seasonal average, bringing an increased risk of frost overnight almost anywhere during any more settled spells.
Updated: 1132 on Fri 25 Nov 2011


UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Dec 2011 to Saturday 24 Dec 2011:

The generally changeable westerly theme is likely to continue through the middle part of December, with spells of wet and windy weather separated by some drier interludes. Generally, rainfall amounts are expected to be around or a bit above average, meaning that western areas will on the whole see more rain than the east, although some rainy spells are likely for all parts. Sunshine hours should also be close to or slightly above normal, with eastern parts more likely to experience the best of the sun. In terms of temperatures, many places are likely to see a trend towards somewhat milder than average conditions, but this does not rule out some colder snaps and the chances of frost and hill snow will continue to increase later in the month.
Updated: 1208 on Fri 25 Nov 2011