Winter 2011/2012

pistolpetes11

mcriot29 wrote: »

I think most are hoping for a white dec
Heres a good link some may find of intrest


http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winthist;sess=

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-summary-2011;sess=


A video of how they make there forecast and the forecast its self .

I posted that up on the last page , they put up the full detailed videos now , its great looking at the reasoning behind there forecast

dbyrne

Just looking at sky weather and I saw this for tuesday

Avns1s

dbyrne wrote: »

Just looking at sky weather and I saw this for tuesday

I need a magnifying glass!! Must be the old age!! Any bigger pic??

faktisperminute

what theeeeee!!!!!!! it shows heavy snow on Tuesday , Lads I don't know but I have a feeling something big is about to happen and most of you will not be ready for it . Take my words closely!.

weathermaiden

dbyrne wrote: »

Just looking at sky weather and I saw this for tuesday

If you go to Sky Weather website and click on Tuesday, you'll see snow icons in the Weschst of Ireland.

As sad as it makes me to type this, I can't imagine there could be snow with highs of 11C? Even with lows of 4C, on hills, it still seems unlikely.

Or, maybe I'm just trying to rain (snow?) on your parade because I'm in Wicklow and I'm jealous.

Well, wait now, just looked at it again there and they're after changing the highs to 9C and "undefined"? Perhaps this is weather in the making.

dsmythy

So Sky predicts snow at 10C, nice.......

delw

faktisperminute wrote: »

what theeeeee!!!!!!! it shows heavy snow on Tuesday , Lads I don't know but I have a feeling something big is about to happen and most of you will not be ready for it . Take my words closely!.

ok,cool story,conspiracy theory forum that way ==>

Calibos

Su Campu wrote: »

Our friend captain Kane man has been given a ban to give him time to go off and learn some English so that he can read the forum rules before posting.

Couldn't quit while he was ahead:rolleyes: Agree with the ban at this point.

John.Icy

It wouldn't be suprising if showers became more wintry at times over Northern area's in the next while. @108 on the 18z, much of the Country is under 850's of -5 and under the 528 Dam line. Of course other things are factors and could scupper everything, but there some of the basics for precip. to turn wintry, especially higher up.

But, since it's not uppers of -10, no-one seems to care..... but these tiny chances of some wintryness should be taken with both arms, considering the current outlooks.

pistolpetes11

Magnifying glasses at the ready :

Yahew

the second last one would turn the Earth back to an ice age.

pistolpetes11

Yahew wrote: »

the second last one would turn the Earth back to an ice age.

I dont know what type of chart that is , one of the more informed posters may be able to shed some light on it .

Su Campu

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I dont know what type of chart that is , one of the more informed posters may be able to shed some light on it .

This shows the spread between the 15 ensemble members and hence the forecast reliability. The lower values (purple) mean less spread and hence more confidence.

There is some confusion as to the 850 temperatures over the Atlantic and eastern Europe, but elsewhere seems to be more reliable, so from the other charts, we're probably in for around -2 to -4 °C 850s.

Musicman2000

An update from MT over on Netweather


The second half of November was a "fail" for my forecast but current projections for early December show the forecast phasing back in ... the "fail" was more pronounced over Europe than North America in my index values and I have identified the problem in modelling as lack of a split flow development with the blocking phase of what was initially modelled as a two-part retrogression (Nov and Jan) separated by a fast westerly phase. This first part of the blocking went more meridional forcing the jet to remain in one piece and sending it northwards at about 10-20 W. The indications for January's blocking phase were more robust and given the depth of cold air around the arctic and a high probability of an SSW event in mid-late December, I am not inclined to revise the outlook from here on. So, as promised, an update based on shorter time frame guidance.

Currently viewing the period around 24-27 December as pivotal for the forecast evolution. After a windy and seaonable first half of December, and a possible cold spell around week of 16-22 Dec, watch for gradual development of Greenland high under strong upper block, strong cyclogenesis eastern Atlantic with possible windstorm moving east to east-south-east towards North Sea around 24-25 Dec and gradual change in circulation over following week to become northerly in advance of a second round of strong west to northwest flow in early January and eventually strong blocking high from northwest Russia ridging west towards Scotland. Temperature anomalies could reverse from +5 or higher to -5 or lower during this period (Christmas Eve to mid-Jan).

Deep and severe cold may develop for up to 2-3 weeks then relent gradually in February. This is only slightly different, I believe, than the NW forecast and the main difference is a slightly earlier core for the expected colder period (which I would currently forecast to be 15-25 Jan). If this pattern does evolve, there could be blizzards in southern and eastern England on several occasions as I expect the very mild Atlantic flow and warm SST values to maintain a foothold for mild air masses in southern France promoting a vigorous storm track during this cold phase across northern France and the Channel regions.

It may be seen in retrospect that the warm autumn contributed to a snowy winter by leaving the warmer sea surface temperatures for later interaction with the Siberian air masses.

My current North American winter forecast calls for gradual development of extreme cold over northwest Canada ridging into the north-central U.S., a mild first half of winter in the northeast states reversing to cold and snowy by February, as the severe cold eventually wins out but at that point, by moving further east, allows milder Pacific air to dominate western regions by February.

Predicting an SSW event 15-20 Dec and development of strong +NAO by 25-30 Dec

vonbarracuda

Have a picture on my phone from this day last year of the first snow

snowstreams

Musicman2000 wrote: »

An update from MT over on Netweather

...
It may be seen in retrospect that the warm autumn contributed to a snowy winter by leaving the warmer sea surface temperatures for later interaction with the Siberian air masses.
...

It looks quite good for snow so.
The warmer sea temperatures probably contributed to the large amount of snow that fell in 1947, maybe that's what's being lined up this year!

thetonynator

Musicman2000 wrote: »

An update from MT over on Netweather

That looks like a serious upgrade! I don't remember there being -5 anomalies mentioned before!!!

Lucreto

Mark Vogan has updated his blog

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_zS31u35-Y

I hope it turns out to be true.

missrandomer

im soooo excited now, upgrades, -5 (anomilies... dont know what that is but sounds good) and even all this warm weather may even be helping us in the snow who would hav thought it.

imagine it started to snow on xmas eve about 7pm and didnt stop maby santy read my letter after all :rolleyes:

only one

Not sure what it means either. Is it good for snow? Maybe we are getting a cold winter after all

Lucreto

According to Met Eireann the end of next week shows the first signs of cooler temperatures.

"Frost is likely on Wednesday night. Thursday will start off dry, but wet and windy weather will spread from the west and will clear overnight with showers following. Friday will be cold, windy and showery, with some of the showers of hail. There'll be further spells of wet and windy weather over the weekend. It will feel colder and more wintry with highest daytime temperatures of between 5 and 10 degrees. Frost is possible in inland areas at night. "

I hope it doesn't warm up again the week after.

NIALL D

Lucreto wrote: »

According to Met Eireann the end of next week shows the first signs of cooler temperatures.

"Frost is likely on Wednesday night. Thursday will start off dry, but wet and windy weather will spread from the west and will clear overnight with showers following. Friday will be cold, windy and showery, with some of the showers of hail. There'll be further spells of wet and windy weather over the weekend. It will feel colder and more wintry with highest daytime temperatures of between 5 and 10 degrees. Frost is possible in inland areas at night. "

I hope it doesn't warm up again the week after.

lets hope so.. looking at the charts etc theres hints on and off a trend to cooler temps.. lets hope december will be one to remember , jus like last year.. and hopefully mt is right about january .. could end up been a really good cold winter afterall.
only time will tell !! would be great to start seeing some chats with cold in a more reliable timeframe , rather than the usual +384 hours or whatever..

mcriot29

very cold over the pole now if the strat starts to warm soon and we get a big dip in AO and NAO we will have cold worse then last year the pole was not near as cold last year so if that cold air moves down over us where in for record breaking cold.

I see the AO is looking like it could hit a plus 4 if it does thats good news for even colder air over the pole so maybe its good that we have mild now the milder the better could mean a big change to cold on way lets hope so

lets hope for a 47 or 63 style event:)

ninebeanrows

mcriot29 wrote: »

very cold over the pole now if the strat starts to warm soon and we get a big dip in AO and NAO we will have cold worse then last year the pole was not near as cold last year so if that cold air moves down over us where in for record breaking cold.

I see the AO is looking like it could hit a plus 4 if it does thats good news for even colder air over the pole so maybe its good that we have mild now the milder the better could mean a big change to cold on way lets hope so

lets hope for a 47 or 63 style event:)

Its not good though, you need a disrupted polar vortex to allow cold to get to Ireland.

At the moment the polar vortex is strong with a solid core. We need to see it break up to enable high latitude blocking.

Tindie

Sorry to go OT
Dose anyone know were I can find Weather charts 18-11-2007 ?
There was snow falling that came out of blue that day in west midlands
(I was reading my old post on horror site)

Pangea

missrandomer wrote: »

im soooo excited now, upgrades, -5 (anomilies... dont know what that is but sounds good) and even all this warm weather may even be helping us in the snow who would hav thought it.

imagine it started to snow on xmas eve about 7pm and didnt stop maby santy read my letter after all :rolleyes:

Brings back memories of 1995.
Started snowing on Christmas Eve (or possibly the 23rd).
Anyway it was just perfect.
Im hoping for my third White Christmas in a row this year, that should be some sort of record in Ireland in modern times.

vetstu

My grandfather is saying that it was warm in the run up to the snow in 47. Keeps saying there is snow in the air this week. He was 23 then so remembers it well. Says there was snow to Paddys Day. Hope to God he's wrong

pistolpetes11

Tindie wrote: »

Sorry to go OT
Dose anyone know were I can find Weather charts 18-11-2007 ?
There was snow falling that came out of blue that day in west midlands
(I was reading my old post on horror site)

Might not be the correct date , doesnt look snow weather





You will find all the charts for that day here

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=18&month=11&year=2007&hour=12&map=0&mode=0

ninebeanrows

Turning more seasonal in the next week or 2.

Cold and very windy next weekend with the first frosts and wintry showers of the season arriving from mid week.

pistolpetes11

Weathercheck wrote: »

Turning more seasonal in the next week or 2.

Cold and very windy next weekend with the first frosts and wintry showers of the season arriving from mid week.

Why does the cold fill me with such warmth inside ?