Winter 2011/2012

Lucreto

missrandomer wrote: »

as i walked around this evening feeding horses and knowing (well kinda) whats ahead of us in a few weeks, i tought what the hell did i do before Boards weather....

I used to look at the sky and look for that sign of snow sky as i call it, funny colour clouds, or ask dad is it goin to snow, his answer was always rubbing his hands together "ah sur its too cold to snow" my little heart would sink.

How did i ever survive before boards weather, im here a year and bloody love this place

I missed the weather forum last year and I bet it was fun reading all the posts while it was snowing. I hope to experience it this year hopefully.

I am addicted now and hope to join in lamp post watch this year.

bb1234567

Lucreto wrote: »

I missed the weather forum last year and I bet it was fun reading all the posts while it was snowing. I hope to experience it this year hopefully.

I am addicted now and hope to join in lamp post watch this year.

boards is my second home:p

smokin ace

bb1234567 wrote: »

boards is my second home:p

jesus dont say that to loud you could be hit with a second home tax

Redsunset

desolate sun wrote: »

Hi Winter people!
I've finally caught up with this thread! I've heard no mention of the Maunder Minimum. Can I ask are we in it? Or perceived to be in it? Or what is happening with sunspot activity?
I understand from last year that sunspot activity effects the global temps and potential for snow.
It has also been said on this thread that the NAO is positive at the moment. Is there a chance it could turn negative? Also is the NAO connected with sunspot activity?

Sorry if this is off topic. The reason I ask these questions is purely in relation to snow potential

Hi ,as posted in the sun thread .
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055544236
However I'll show the whole post here again as this info is buried in that thread and should answer your questions.

Effect of solar activity on the NAO/AO



A substantial portion of the climate variability in the Atlantic sector is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with variations occurring on a wide range of scales. The influence of solar activity (expressed by various indices) on the NAO has been studied by a number of authors. Having reviewed the information available to him, Lamb (1972, p. 252) noticed several tendencies in the surface parameters in relation to solar activity. These tendencies included:
Strong development of the mid-latitude westerlies, Icelandic low and Azores high around the middle of the declining phase of solar activity;
Strong meridional and cellular circulation systems at some stage during the more rapid rises of solar disturbance and greatest frequency of very strong anomalies of pressure and temperature (intense systems);
Also (perhaps later) during the ascent, a phase of strong middle latitudes westerlies, strong Icelandic low and Azores high, seems particularly liable to occur.
More recently, Bucha and Bucha (1998) found a correlation between geomagnetic activity and sea level pressure variations similar to the NAO for the period 1970 to 1996. They suggested a mechanism based on winds generated in the polar thermosphere following geomagnetic storms.

Bochnicek and Hejda (2005) demonstrated that during the winter periods (January–March) of the years 1963–2001 high geomagnetic activity was nearly always associated with a positive phase of the NAO, whereas low geomagnetic activity tended to couple with the negative phase. Palamara and Bryant (2004) and Fujita and Tanaka (2007) found a similar relationship with the Northern Annular Mode (NAM). According to Thejll et al. (2003), who studied the relationship between the geomagnetic index Ap and the NAO for the period 1949-2000, the correlation was high and significant only since about 1972.




However, for the period 1949–1972 no significant correlations were found at the surface while significant correlations still existed in the stratosphere. This might indicate that the solar forcing, primarily acting in the stratosphere, is propagating its influence downward in the later period but not in the earlier.

A robust relationship between solar cycle variations, proxied by the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, and the NAM has been found by Ruzmaikin and Feynman (2002). In particular, the NAM index was found to be systematically more negative (corresponding to a weaker polar jet) during low solar activity (Ruzmaikin et al., 2004).



Kodera (2002, 2003) showed that the spatial structure of the NAO varies significantly according to the phase of the solar cycle. During solar maximum phases, the NAO covers the Northern Hemisphere and extends into the stratosphere, which is similar to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (Thompson and Wallace, 1998), except for the Pacific sector. By contrast, for minimum solar phases, the NAO is confined to the Atlantic sector and to the troposphere.

Boberg and Lundstedt (2002, 2003) showed that variations of the NAO index could be correlated with the electric field strength of the solar wind. Using geopotential height data they found a strong correlation between the electric field strength of the solar wind and pressure variations in the stratosphere and troposphere. For the tropospheric pressure the influence is confined to the North Atlantic and resembles the action of the NAO.

On a secular time scale, Kirov and Georgieva (2002) found a negative correlation between the NAO index and sunspot activity: the index had a maximum during the period of low solar activity in the late 19th and early 20th century and a minimum during the period of high solar activity in the 1950s and 1960s.

However, since the data covers only one secular cycle, their conclusion is not statistically sound. In their later work, addressing the issue of instability in solar terrestrial relationships, Georgieva et al. (2007) underscored the importance of asymmetry between sunspot numbers in the northern and southern solar hemispheres.

They hypothesize that when the southern solar hemisphere is more active, increasing solar activity in the secular solar cycle leads to strengthening of the zonal atmospheric circulation, and when the northern solar hemisphere is more active, increasing solar activity in the secular solar cycle leads to weakening of the zonal circulation.

There are also a number of works that have examined the effect of solar activity on climatic variables other than the NAO (but often closely related to the NAO). Here, for brevity, we will mention just one of those works, because it underscores the importance of the 22-year Hale cycle, which manifests itself in reversal of polarity of sunspots from one 11-year cycle to another.

According to Bochkov (1978), during even cycles of solar activity and on its ascending branch, the Barents Sea is characterized by suppressed cyclonic activity, negative anomalies of sea and air temperature and increased ice cover. In contrast, during the decreasing branch of solar activity (2-5 years after its maximum), the Barents Sea tends to be warmer than normal. The situation during the odd cycles of solar activity is less clear.


Fig. 1. The winter (DJF) NAO index from CPC, 1951-2008.

Despite the complexity of solar effect on North Atlantic climate, most of the authors seem to agree that negative (positive) NAO phases tend to occur during low (high) levels of solar activity. This simplified relationship refers to both the 11-year and secular solar cycles.
Currently, the solar activity is at the beginning of its 24th cycle. Also, it seems to be on a declining phase of the secular cycle, but still remains relatively high. The behaviour of the NAO (Fig. 1) and AO (Fig. 2) indices in recent decades seem to be consistent with the above relationship: both indices reached their maximum values in the early 1990s and now tend to stay close to their average values.


Fig. 2. The winter (DJF) AO index from CPC, 1951-2008.

As the 24th solar cycle progresses, entering into its ascending phase, one can expect a weakening of the subpolar low and developing of a meridional type of atmospheric circulation, with an increasing frequency of the negative NAO.

Closer to the maximum of solar activity, and on the descending branch of the cycle, zonal atmospheric circulation (positive NAO) may become prevalent again.

Much will depend on whether the 24th cycle will be weak or strong. If it is going to be a weak cycle (which is somewhat more likely), the NAO may become strongly negative, resulting in a substantial cooling in the Northeast Atlantic, Norwegian and Barents Seas.

smodgley

Freezing Ireland
Ths evening's models seem to still have some chance of snow from the 3rd through till the 6th.
Id expect to see some sleet falling saturday evening on low areas from the west, with snow on higher ground. Then sunday night into monday looks like we could see some snow at lower levels. To what extent though is not certain at this stage, as models still have some disagreements.

Pangea

Who are Freezing Ireland, are they anything to do with Irish Weather Online?

delw

Lucreto wrote: »

I missed the weather forum last year and I bet it was fun reading all the posts while it was snowing. I hope to experience it this year hopefully.

I am addicted now and hope to join in lamp post watch this year.

you've no idea,posts were coming in so fast that you couldnt read half them,server could'nt of been far from crash ,was great

smodgley

Pangea wrote: »

Who are Freezing Ireland, are they anything to do with Irish Weather Online?

actually ive no idea, just seen their post on FB

eskimocat

I think our own Iancar is the man behind the keyboard... the clue was all the snow dancing lol Keep Dancing Iancar it seems to be working

delw

this date last year

Min

I see some want a 1947 event, that lasted from January and there was still snow in the ditches in May.
On Today Fm, they said the highest drift was 50ft high, people were snowed in and couldn't get of out of their homes as snowed drifted and blocked windows and doors.
It killed upto 400 people, and thousands of livestock died.

Some of us are lucky and can afford heating, the proper number of meals and so on, but there are people who would die if we have a 1947 type event.
We do not want blizzards with winds blowing upto 70mph, with 5ft of snowfall.
I am not trying to be a spoil sport, but the consequences for life in this country are unreal if we had that again, it wouldn't matter how much grit or salt the councils had. We would need the army out rescuing people and life would be hell, shops would quickly run out of the basics.

So no, lets hope we never see a 1947 type winter in Ireland. It is the last thing we want to see for this coming winter.

delw

Min wrote: »

I see some want a 1947 event, that lasted from January and there was still snow in the ditches in May.
On Today Fm, they said the highest drift was 50ft high, people were snowed in and couldn't get of out of their homes as snowed drifted and blocked windows and doors.
It killed upto 400 people, and thousands of livestock died.

Some of us are lucky and can afford heating, the proper number of meals and so on, but there are people who would die if we have a 1947 type event.
We do not want blizzards with winds blowing upto 70mph, with 5ft of snowfall.
I am not trying to be a spoil sport, but the consequences for life in this country are unreal if we had that again, it wouldn't matter how much grit or salt the councils had. We would need the army out rescuing people and life would be hell, shops would quickly run out of the basics.

So no, lets hope we never see a 1947 type winter in Ireland. It is the last thing we want to see for this coming winter.

Min your not being a spoil sport,your actually making a very level headed comment but people being people will have their own view on what type of winter they want

snow ghost

Min wrote: »

I see some want a 1947 event, that lasted from January and there was still snow in the ditches in May.
On Today Fm, they said the highest drift was 50ft high, people were snowed in and couldn't get of out of their homes as snowed drifted and blocked windows and doors.
It killed upto 400 people, and thousands of livestock died.

Some of us are lucky and can afford heating, the proper number of meals and so on, but there are people who would die if we have a 1947 type event.
We do not want blizzards with winds blowing upto 70mph, with 5ft of snowfall.
I am not trying to be a spoil sport, but the consequences for life in this country are unreal if we had that again, it wouldn't matter how much grit or salt the councils had. We would need the army out rescuing people and life would be hell, shops would quickly run out of the basics.

So no, lets hope we never see a 1947 type winter in Ireland. It is the last thing we want to see for this coming winter.

British research revealed that winter deaths decreased considerably during the fairly extreme recent winters. It is thought that people socialised less, etc and viruses didn't spread, etc.

So there can also be positives to such weather.

Whilst I wouldn't like to see any one suffer from hardships, I look forward to 50 foot snow drifts and say bring it on; we are a very resilient people and have faced much much worse than heavy snow falls and survived.

snow ghost

There is also that nice community spirit that comes to the fore when there is heavy snow... neighbours helping neighbours dig out their cars, etc it has many positives.

I also find that the old folks love it - it gives them a buzz and something to rally against and talk about.

Pangea

Min wrote: »

Blizzards with winds blowing up to 70mph, with 5ft of snowfall.
.

Yes Please!!! :pac:

Of course no one wishes death on anyone Min, weather enthusiasts love the weather not the fatalities. If we all liked the weather to suit the least risk to human life there would be no weather enthusiasts and we would all want very boring weather i.e no heatwaves, no snowfall etc.
Every weather type has consequence's one way or another. A well welcomed rainfall for farmers crops may be a nightmare for drivers as the roads get greasy and dangerous, not to mention all those people with Ombrophobia (people who have an abnormal fear of rain). :pac:

Many people enjoyed the blowing gales this weekend yet its a very sad day for the families of those fishermen lost in the Irish Sea. What ever your favourite type of weather, it doesn't matter, what's to come will come.
At least I wont be miserable like the people who hate snow when snow actually does comes.

After saying all that to get to your point I'm not sure how I would fair with a winter like 1947, we can only imagine but as a snow lover it sounds very appealing!
You made a good point though, such an extreme weather event would be danegorus. We all heard of the Night of the big wind here and its atrocites, yet there's probably a few on here that would secretly (or not so secretly) love to experience something like that or an event like Hurricane Debbie. :pac:

Lucreto

Min wrote: »

I see some want a 1947 event, that lasted from January and there was still snow in the ditches in May.
On Today Fm, they said the highest drift was 50ft high, people were snowed in and couldn't get of out of their homes as snowed drifted and blocked windows and doors.
It killed upto 400 people, and thousands of livestock died.

Some of us are lucky and can afford heating, the proper number of meals and so on, but there are people who would die if we have a 1947 type event.
We do not want blizzards with winds blowing upto 70mph, with 5ft of snowfall.
I am not trying to be a spoil sport, but the consequences for life in this country are unreal if we had that again, it wouldn't matter how much grit or salt the councils had. We would need the army out rescuing people and life would be hell, shops would quickly run out of the basics.

So no, lets hope we never see a 1947 type winter in Ireland. It is the last thing we want to see for this coming winter.

I doubt we will get a 1947 event again. I am sure technology has advanced in 64 years to forewarn such event and people would be prepared. I doubt they had snow plough and gritters and a better infrastructure.

snow ghost

Lucreto wrote: »

I doubt we will get a 1947 event again. I am sure technology has advanced in 64 years to forewarn such event and people would be prepared. I doubt they had snow plough and gritters and a better infrastructure.

They didn't have Leo Varadkar either... yeah maybe we would be f*cked after all.

dillo2k10

MSN is saying snow for Thursday

http://weather.ie.msn.com/tenday.aspx?wealocations=wc:eixx0014

delw

Lucreto wrote: »

I doubt we will get a 1947 event again. I am sure technology has advanced in 64 years to forewarn such event and people would be prepared. I doubt they had snow plough and gritters and a better infrastructure.

well we had the technology last winter but still didn't have enough salt,what we got was "met eireann" did'nt tell us etc....IMO

El Horseboxo

Believe me none of you would love a "1947" type event. I lived in one for much of my teenage years. Right up in northern Minnesota where severe lake effect snow regularly occurred. It's great craic initially. But not cool when your electricity is gone and then only comes back sporadically. Also having to get up 2 hours earlier than normal to try clear your drive way in what seemed like a pointless effort as the snow falling was more than you're shoveling. It gets very old very quick.

I still love snow but if this country had 4 months of constant snow i reckon even the biggest enthusiast would grow tired.

MUSEIST

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Believe me none of you would love a "1947" type event. I lived in one for much of my teenage years. Right up in northern Minnesota where severe lake effect snow regularly occurred. It's great craic initially. But not cool when your electricity is gone and then only comes back sporadically. Also having to get up 2 hours earlier than normal to try clear your drive way in what seemed like a pointless effort as the snow falling was more than you're shoveling. It gets very old very quick.

I still love snow but if this country had 4 months of constant snow i reckon even the biggest enthusiast would grow tired.

sorry but no:cool:

El Horseboxo

MUSEIST wrote: »

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Believe me none of you would love a "1947" type event. I lived in one for much of my teenage years. Right up in northern Minnesota where severe lake effect snow regularly occurred. It's great craic initially. But not cool when your electricity is gone and then only comes back sporadically. Also having to get up 2 hours earlier than normal to try clear your drive way in what seemed like a pointless effort as the snow falling was more than you're shoveling. It gets very old very quick.

I still love snow but if this country had 4 months of constant snow i reckon even the biggest enthusiast would grow tired.

sorry but no:cool:

Have you ever lived in snow and freezing conditions for 4 months and had to go to school/college/work and experienced all the damage, hardship and diminished living situation?

If not it's really difficult to say you'd love it based on your experience of Irish winters. Of course there are people that love those climates. But they are usually people who have lived in them for years. Up at 4.30am to scrape your car and shovel your driveway and then crawl along in low visibility on snowy roads can erode the fun of snow greatly.

alfalad

vetstu wrote: »

My grandfather is saying that it was warm in the run up to the snow in 47. Keeps saying there is snow in the air this week. He was 23 then so remembers it well. Says there was snow to Paddys Day. Hope to God he's wrong

When talking about cold weather my father often talks about that winter, there was a field that he wanted to plough early but couldn't get in till patricks day.

Wild Bill

Min wrote: »

I see some want a 1947 event, that lasted from January and there was still snow in the ditches in May.
On Today Fm, they said the highest drift was 50ft high, people were snowed in and couldn't get of out of their homes as snowed drifted and blocked windows and doors.
It killed upto 400 people, and thousands of livestock died.

.......

So no, lets hope we never see a 1947 type winter in Ireland. It is the last thing we want to see for this coming winter.

Come on!

A 1995 or 1976 style Summer could cause many more deaths through increased skin cancer and heat induced mortality - I've never read anyone moralistically condemning the annual hopes for a cloudless summer of endless sunshine.

Spoilsport? - you called it!

Bring on 1947...on steroids! :cool:

(And then a scorching Summer)

Min

Wild Bill wrote: »

Come on!

A 1995 or 1976 style Summer could cause many more deaths through increased skin cancer and heat induced mortality - I've never read anyone moralistically condemning the annual hopes for a cloudless summer of endless sunshine.

Spoilsport? - you called it!

Bring on 1947...on steroids! :cool:

(And then a scorching Summer)

I would hate a long hot summer, we do not need drought conditions and water restrictions either from reservoirs and springs going dry.

As already said, a 1947 winter would mean no electricity for a lot of people.

Caff Caff

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=394&c=5

so Piers had originally said exceptionally cold from 27th of Nov but believes a large scar like ridge on the sun caused an upset so he has now pushed it forward to state that a cold blast will now hit on the 29th... He says that he will update tomorrow at 12noon. *sigh* Keeping fingers and toes crossed. This yoyo weather although predominantly mild, it's driving me scatty! The models are showing a cold trend...but will it be cold enough? Woe is the waiting game! :cool:

WolfeIRE

Caff Caff wrote: »

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=394&c=5

"WeatherAction are the forecasters who go where others cannot reach! WATCH Standard Met - and the rest - slither and slide as scientifically predicted Solar-lunar-magnetic action give us weather they said wouldn't happen!"

:rolleyes:

StormGazer.11

Hello everyone, I'm pretty new to the whole weather game but this thread makes for some very interesting reading..

The mild conditions are getting pretty boring at this stage... I'm hoping for some snow, not even anything like the huge drifts mentioned from '47 (I think it was) a nice dusting would do at this stage and some crisp and frosty mornings would be nice.

Even if we have to wait until around the start of the new year and up to mid January like MT said it wouldn't be so bad, once we see some form of sneachta before the winters finished, BRING ON THE WHITE STUFF!!

Deep Easterly

ECMWF ensemble mean run keeps its zonal right into December:



Seasonal really with some cooler spells between the milder ones.

Speculatores

Hi Guys, been following this board for a while now & got to say starting to get slightly addicted! Whether that's to do with my unbelievable desire to see some decent snow this year I don't know? But my question is whether the south-east corner if the England is going to see anything like the snow we saw last year? Please, oh pretty please....