Winter 2011/2012

pistolpetes11

C14N wrote: »

I wish I knew what all this weather talk was about

Is there still any chance of snow or should I give up at this stage?

There is a chance all the way out until the end of March some would say :rolleyes:

This is the first day of Winter , there is loads of fun to come of that I am sure !

pistolpetes11

jo06555 wrote: »

I'm assuming its Scandinavian high pressure ? I'm as much in the dark here as you I'm just hoping it is a sign of some oncoming snowy conditions soon maybe

A scandi High would allow cold weather to sink across our shores from an Easterly direction ,

Some what similar to this chart I think .

Su Campu

Here's a multimodel blend of the GFS, GENS, ECMWF and BOM for the mentioned storm next Thursday. Stiff west-northwesterly winds, with some snow on hills in the northwest.

mcriot29

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

jo06555 wrote: »

I'm assuming its Scandinavian high pressure ? I'm as much in the dark here as you I'm just hoping it is a sign of some oncoming snowy conditions soon maybe

A scandi High would allow cold weather to sink across our shores from an Easterly direction ,

Some what similar to this chart I think .

[IMG]https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/181192/183407.png[/ If this set wad to happen it would be at least 3 weeks away but im thinking jan or feb is are best bet for this unless we get a jan type event like 1985[/img]

C14N

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

There is a chance all the way out until the end of March some would say :rolleyes:

This is the first day of Winter , there is loads of fun to come of that I am sure !

Well that depends who you are (always considered November the start of winter myself). I just really want a bit of snow for Christmas.

StormGazer.11

I know it's still very hard to tell guys seeing as the models aren't even really showing it but what do ye reckon the realistic possibilities of this Scandi high are? I'm just praying for the AO and NAO to plummet for some prolonged cold and some mood changing snow!! early Christmas present please

mcriot29

StormGazer.11 wrote: »

I know it's still very hard to tell guys seeing as the models aren't even really showing it but what do ye reckon the realistic possibilities of this Scandi high are? I'm just praying for the AO and NAO to plummet for some prolonged cold and some mood changing snow!! early Christmas present please

I cant see the AO or NAO going below -1 this side of xmas the ao has more of a chance of gong very low in time the Nao less of a chance
The PDO is on the way up now too
But we may get lucky and have a 1984 85 type event where we get cold air from a Plus AO and NAO

davidsr20

mcriot29 wrote: »

I cant see the AO or NAO going below -1 this side of xmas the ao has more of a chance of gong very low in time the Nao less of a chance
The PDO is on the way up now too
But we may get lucky and have a 1984 85 type event where we get cold air from a Plus AO and NAO

What the hell is pdo,ao and nao?

snow ghost

Saw this vid in the angling forum :eek: hopefully we'll only be seeing such scenes of watery-woe after mega snow melts in spring 2012:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fr9bY0_JB8

Bring on the white stuff, save the salmon.

pistolpetes11

More importantly ,

Whats more important to us ,

A negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) OR

A negative Arctic Oscillation ???

pistolpetes11

davidsr20 wrote: »

What the hell is pdo,ao and nao?

PDO

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation

AO

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_oscillation

NAO

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation

Caff Caff

Current temp 2dgrs c but real feel is -5...brrr...remained at 2 for majority of night and rose, slightly, to 3 but real feel was up and down from -1 to -6! Good aul air temps deceiving us

Caff Caff

Ice ice baby...

StormGazer.11

mcriot29 wrote: »

I cant see the AO or NAO going below -1 this side of xmas the ao has more of a chance of gong very low in time the Nao less of a chance
The PDO is on the way up now too
But we may get lucky and have a 1984 85 type event where we get cold air from a Plus AO and NAO

Ya fingers crossed that nothing will be able to stop the huge amount of cold air at the pole from seeping down to us.

h57xiucj2z946q

Seems to be spitting a small bit of slush in athlone.

only one

What was 1985 winter like? Anyone got a link to it?

mcriot29

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

More importantly ,

Whats more important to us ,

A negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) OR

A negative Arctic Oscillation ???

It would be the AO
NAO was neg last jan and feb but AO was not and it meant we had no snow once the AO goes below -2 we get colder air over us most times
Mark vogan has just done a update on the cold he thinks it will start from end dec into jan

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Weather-and-Climate-Through-The-Eyes-of-Mark-Vogan/368502778051

mcriot29

only one wrote: »

What was 1985 winter like? Anyone got a link to it?

Look here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winthist;sess=

Video here dublin. 85

http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=/&gl=IE#/watch?v=PDv1ubaFA0E

only one

mcriot29 wrote: »

only one wrote: »

What was 1985 winter like? Anyone got a link to it?

Look here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winthist;sess=

Video here dublin. 85

http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=/&gl=IE#/watch?v=PDv1ubaFA0E

Thanks

mcriot29

The weather postman was on radio today he said a normal winter for ireland this year with little snow also said next few winters wont see much snow either
Id say he is going by the sunspots beefing up so less chance of the jet doing strange things
Bit silly for him to go as far as saying next few winters will be mild he reminds me of piers coming out with stupid predictions

WolfeIRE

Unless the sunspot is doing the Siege of Ennis with the donkey in the barn, I doubt it very much he is basing his predictions on present or future levels of solar activity. He bases his predictions on the natural environment in his native Donegal, something that has been practised down through the ages and some would say with considerable accuracy.

I prefer the scientific approach myself but am always interested in what this gentleman has to say.

blackius

mcriot29 wrote: »

The weather postman was on radio today he said a normal winter for ireland this year with little snow also said next few winters wont see much snow either
Id say he is going by the sunspots beefing up so less chance of the jet doing strange things
Bit silly for him to go as far as saying next few winters will be mild he reminds me of piers coming out with stupid predictions

The Donegal postman doesn't use sun spots lol.
He goes on signs of nature,like what the birds are doing,the animals,how many berries are on the holly etc etc

He has a book out where he talks about his auld timer ways of predicting the weather.

He was right last year probably because what was coming nature wanted to last a month so of course the birds were eating all the holly berries.
I am a believer myself in nature having it's signs.

It's no exact thing so for example,that postman may genuinely feel that no severe winter is ahead but you could still get a week of north easterlies and a few days with a few inches of snow which we'd all go mad about on here and find memorable...
Mr postmans prediction for an overall ordinary winter would still be right though if there was only 1 interlude like that as a week is a very short time inside 3 or 4 months.

WolfeIRE

oops...wrong thread

Pangea

mcriot29 wrote: »

also said next few winters wont see much snow either
Bit silly for him to go as far as saying next few winters will be mild he reminds me of piers coming out with stupid predictions

I just listened to it on replay. He never said anything about the next few winters don't know where you got that from.

http://2fm.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=1%3A3129512%3A4678%3A02%2D12%2D2011%3A
Hes on there at around 1h:11mins.

Dave fanning was pretty much clueless with everything. I don't think he ever heard of Michael before and he had trouble understanding him, plus Dave didn't even know what a new moon was lol

mcriot29

Pangea wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

also said next few winters wont see much snow either
Bit silly for him to go as far as saying next few winters will be mild he reminds me of piers coming out with stupid predictions

I just listened to it on replay. He never said anything about the next few winters don't know where you got that from.

http://2fm.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=1%3A3129512%3A4678%3A02%2D12%2D2011%3A
Hes on there at around 1h:11mins.

Dave fanning was pretty much clueless with everything. I don't think he ever heard about Michael before and he had trouble understanding Michael, plus Dave didn't even know what a new moon was lol

He was also on newstalk today thats where he said about it
Sounds like rubbish to me he also predicted a very bad winter a few years ago and he was totally wrong
You can only predict weather 3 weeks ahead anyone who gets a long term forecast correct is just lucky

Pangea

mcriot29 wrote: »

He was also on newstalk today thats where he said about it
Sounds like rubbish to me he also predicted a very bad winter a few years ago and he was totally wrong

Sounds like rubbish to most scientific people, that doesn't mean its wrong.
What winter was that?

mcriot29

Pangea wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

He was also on newstalk today thats where he said about it
Sounds like rubbish to me he also predicted a very bad winter a few years ago and he was totally wrong

Sounds like rubbish to most scientific people, that doesn't mean its wrong.
What winter was that?

It was well before we had any of the cold winters and he was on saying it would be a very cold winter etc

Pangea

mcriot29 wrote: »

It was well before we had any of the cold winters and he was on saying it would be a very cold winter etc

So you don't have the date or a link.
Well I never heard him talking about Cold winters, and I have been seeing him in the local paper for the past 10-15 years.
He warned many times that heavy snow was coming and he was right about it on those occasions. I never heard him saying a very cold winter would come before the previous two, he warned about snow events yes.

snow ghost

mcriot29 wrote: »

He was also on newstalk today thats where he said about it
Sounds like rubbish to me he also predicted a very bad winter a few years ago and he was totally wrong
You can only predict weather 3 weeks ahead anyone who gets a long term forecast correct is just lucky

I find him and his traditional methods interesting.

A lot of the old folks around here make similar predictions based on nature's 'signs'. It's part of our heritage and culture and if nothing else it is a bit of craic.

I also don't believe for one minute he is a snake oil salesman trying to dupe people that he can predict the future nor fleece them. Unlike some spoofers out there.

mcriot29

It was years ago and in the local paper
You seem to know more about his forecasts and as you said he gets them correct so maybe his ways work
Id love to know what signs in nature he goes by etc