Winter 2011/2012

John.Icy · 03-12-2011 5:50pm

Had to rub my eyes for abit there, thought someone had posted a CFS chart for mid-January and was taking it quite serious!

Oh wait...

Forum Monkey · 03-12-2011 9:45pm

Snow Forecast For The North and Northwest tonight! Hope it will reach the East soon!

Mayo_Boy · 03-12-2011 9:53pm

Forum Monkey wrote: »

Snow Forecast For The North and Northwest tonight! Hope it will reach the East soon!

Is it not tomorrow night?

Pangea · 03-12-2011 9:54pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I never had faith in this winter. I thought the fact that we had two cold winters in a row meant that the chance of another happening this year was slim! I found it amusing that people actually thought it would definitely happen again this year! But what really made me LOL hard was long range forecasts for the cold start around the 26th of November purely based on the fact that that's when it started last year so it will this year as well! :rolleyes:

There seems to be an astounding lack of basic understanding of how the atmosphere works among these so called ''forecasters''!

Still have a twinkle of hope though!

I doubt that the past two winters were a coincidence.
Maybe there is some trend devloping.
If MTs January forecast comes true then it might be a hatrick of Big Freezes.
Last winter wasn't Cold after Christmas, hopefully this winter is in reverse order.

mcriot29 · 03-12-2011 10:14pm

Pangea wrote: »

I doubt that the past two winters were a coincidence.
Maybe there is some trend devloping.
If MTs January forecast comes true then it might be a hatrick of Big Freezes.
Last winter wasn't Cold after Christmas, hopefully this winter is in reverse order.

Even in mini ice age there was never more 3 in a row at that was mini ice age what worrys me is look how cold it will be next week with the record high ao just shows if it dipped very low we could see far worse cold then last year

weathermaiden · 03-12-2011 10:25pm

ZOMG, what day and exact time will it snow at Main Street, Clonballough, Co. Offaly, and how many cm should I expect?? I am planning my outfit for the month and I need to know if can wear my new Louboutins or if I'll be stuck in my wellies, thanks. :rolleyes:

Forum Monkey · 03-12-2011 10:32pm

Mayo_Boy wrote: »

Is it not tomorrow night?

Tonight!

thetonynator · 03-12-2011 10:34pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

Even in mini ice age there was never more 3 in a row at that was mini ice age what worrys me is look how cold it will be next week with the record high ao just shows if it dipped very low we could see far worse cold then last year

There is the exact same chance this year as any other year, i.e. very low chances.

Last year has no effect at all!

That said, 1982 is remembered as one of the best winters ever for snow, and was by no means a cold winter, not even a cold January.

davidsr20 · 03-12-2011 10:38pm

thetonynator wrote: »

There is the exact same chance this year as any other year, i.e. very low chances.

Last year has no effect at all!

That said, 1982 is remembered as one of the best winters ever for snow, and was by no means a cold winter, not even a cold January.

I taught 1947 was the best snow in history!

Pangea · 03-12-2011 10:43pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

I taught 1947 was the best snow in history!

1917 was pretty epic.
Not sure if it was the heaviest ever though.
http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/HeavySnows1917.pdf

"Snow lay to an estimated depth of 1.3 m with drifts of 3.0 m."

Pangea · 03-12-2011 11:07pm

thetonynator wrote: »

There is the exact same chance this year as any other year, i.e. very low chances.

Last year has no effect at all!

That said, 1982 is remembered as one of the best winters ever for snow, and was by no means a cold winter, not even a cold January.

Doesnt the el nino effect and low sun spot activity etc enchance our chance of getting a cold outbreak rather than the winters of old.

thetonynator · 03-12-2011 11:14pm

Pangea wrote: »

Doesnt the el nino effect and low sun spot activity etc enchance our chance of getting a cold outbreak rather than the winters of old.

The la nina effect isn't really proven to improve our chances of cold (in face there have been some of the best irish winters in el nino conditions afaik).

The low sun spots, while still below average are rising, and no one is really sure about the correlation of that either.

And winters of old . . .well pre 1990 was supposed to be pretty good . . .so maybe you're referring to 1990-2008 as ''the winters of old?! :P

thetonynator · 03-12-2011 11:20pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

I taught 1947 was the best snow in history!

Yeah, but in the memory of most of those on here 1982 was. And I was trying to pick a year that had lots of snow without being cold. :P

1982 also has the dubious distinction of being the winter that is brought up here every time snow less than 3 foot in depth falls.

i.e. ''It's snowing, but it's not like '82''.- most common quote to see here in January, coming just ahead of:

''But sure winter didn't start til late january in '47!''

And:

''It never snows in cork''.

fizzycyst · 03-12-2011 11:22pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Yeah, but in the memory of most of those on here 1982 was. And I was trying to pick a year that had lots of snow without being cold. :P

1982 also has the dubious distinction of being the winter that is brought up here every time snow less than 3 foot in depth falls.

i.e. ''It's snowing, but it's not like '82''.- most common quote to see here in January, coming just ahead of:

''But sure winter didn't start til late january in '47!''

And:

''It never snows in cork''.

That is so true

nacho libre · 03-12-2011 11:27pm

StormGazer.11 wrote: »

Is it just me or are there others starting to loose faith that this winter is going to bring some snow? Now I know that the models are changing everyday but there just doesn't seem to be much left pointing to proper cold? (Or is there, I'm well open for someone to prove me wrong here actually I'm hoping someone can) Honestly do ye think that we could see a significant dip in the AO and NAO in early to mid January or will it carry on in the mild cold mild cold setup? Just looking for some of ye're thoughts on this guys, for some renewed Christmas cheer!

Some places in Ireland will see snow at times this week.
A widespread snow event and sustained cold is not going to happen in the current setup. We need to see a stratospheric warming event for that to happen. The cfs model and others don't factor in the possibility of this happening. Also as has been suggested the cfs long range model projections flip constantly, yes they do get it right sometimes, but just as often they are wide of mark.
The thinking of the netweather forecaster and M.T. Cranium is of a stratospheric warming event occurring around mid December, the results of which show up in the troposphere(where weather happens) about 3- 4 weeks later. If it does happen it can lead to a blocking pattern- it doesn't guarantee one, though.

If the warming event doesn't happen before Christmas. We may have to press the fast forward button to winter 2012/13 for prolonged cold. Although sun spot activity in this cycle is expected to peak next year.

Pangea · 03-12-2011 11:36pm

thetonynator wrote: »

And winters of old . . .well pre 1990 was supposed to be pretty good . . .so maybe you're referring to 1990-2008 as ''the winters of old?! :P

Yes indeed 1990-2008 were my winters of old as I dont remember anything before then

jimmy.d · 03-12-2011 11:51pm

here is one very similar to the november we just hadhttp://www.thamesweb.co.uk/windsor/windsorhistory/freeze63.html :cool:

jo06555 · 04-12-2011 12:08am

Friend of mine made me jealous just Now he in Scotland and said theirs nice big fluffy snow falling

dsmythy · 04-12-2011 12:18am

Scotland should be getting some decent falls over the next couple of days. Noticed the GFS in particular being consistant with a high passing over us eastwards becoming a Euro high throughout the middle part of December I noticed. Don't mind the idea of snow being held off until after Christmas I must say.

StormGazer.11 · 04-12-2011 1:04am

nacho libre wrote: »

Some places in Ireland will see snow at times this week.
A widespread snow event and sustained cold is not going to happen in the current setup. We need to see a stratospheric warming event for that to happen. The cfs model and others don't factor in the possibility of this happening. Also as has been suggested the cfs long range model projections flip constantly, yes they do get it right sometimes, but just as often they are wide of mark.
The thinking of the netweather forecaster and M.T. Cranium is of a stratospheric warming event occurring around mid December, the results of which show up in the troposphere(where weather happens) about 3- 4 weeks later. If it does happen it can lead to a blocking pattern- it doesn't guarantee one, though.

If the warming event doesn't happen before Christmas. We may have to press the fast forward button to winter 2012/13 for prolonged cold. Although sun spot activity in this cycle is expected to peak next year.

Thanks Nacho! I'm still trying to get to grips with understanding how it all works and your post shone some more light on the situation..appreciate it..

nacho libre · 04-12-2011 2:02am

dsmythy wrote: »

Scotland should be getting some decent falls over the next couple of days. Noticed the GFS in particular being consistant with a high passing over us eastwards becoming a Euro high throughout the middle part of December I noticed. Don't mind the idea of snow being held off until after Christmas I must say.

If that verifies, it will be interesting to see if the high eventually sinks or moves up towards Scandinavia. With a strong pv, if it moves east as suggested by the ecm, the high will likely sink.

Wild Bill · 04-12-2011 2:14am

I can only speak for Dublin, but I remember 1982 - There was roughly one foot of snow and lasted just over a week; in terms of prolonged and repeated snowfall it wasn't a patch on what we got from late Nov to Christmas last year. (Xmas Day max -3; min -12!)

We had two separate accumulations of a foot here last year; the first late Nov/early Dec was still lingering in shaded spots when the second series of falls hit. It snowed on 17 separate days during the period!

The ground had snow cover continuously from Nov 27th to Dec 26th; with 100% cover on all uncleared ground except from 9th to 17th.

On Christmas morning last year there was still over 20 cm still on undisturbed ground.

Photo: Sandyford midday Christmas Day 2010

As someone with early childhood memories of 1963 and all the events since I can tell you last Nov/Dec 2010 was by far the best prolonged episode of snow in Dublin since 1947.

What are the chances of a repeat? If the weather was purely random I'd be guessing about 1 in 70!

jimmy.d · 04-12-2011 2:27am

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=A0EAWD6ZZSY yipee:D

StormGazer.11 · 04-12-2011 11:49am

jimmy.d wrote: »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=A0EAWD6ZZSY yipee:D

Hopefully he's got it right

jo06555 · 04-12-2011 1:01pm

jimmy.d wrote: »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=A0EAWD6ZZSY yipee:D

I know its UK he talks of but hopefully all of Ireland will be covered too?

Forum Monkey · 04-12-2011 1:36pm

Here is some good news for youse! From Met Eireann TODAY:

Monday night will be very cold with hail, sleet and snow showers over western and northern coastal counties of Ulster. Other Atlantic coastal areas will have some wintry showers also but inland and Eastern areas will stay dry. It will stay breezy though the wind will ease off in sheltered areas with frost forming. Lowest temperatures will range plus 2 to minus 1 degrees. Tuesday will be a cold, windy and showery day. The showers will be mainly of rain and hail in the South but in Northern and Northeastern areas they will fall as snow at times more especially over high ground with further accumulations likely. Highest temperatures will range 4 to 8 degrees, mildest in the Southwest of the country. Wednesday will also be very showery and blustery countrywide but it will be less cold with highest temperatures of 7 to 10 degrees and snow is unlikely. Frost is expected in many areas early on Wednesday night as showers become isolated with the danger of icy patches. Later in the night and during Thursday it looks like more showers will return across the country falling as sleet or snow at times, particularly over high ground in Midland, Northern and Eastern areas.