Winter 2011/2012

Elmer Blooker

mrweatherman wrote: »

can anyone give me a good honest and decent answer is there any risk of real cold weather or snow around christmas week. travelling from cork to dublin and dont want to get caught like last year

The chances for snow at Christmas are now nil! The charts are now consistently showing a very large anticyclone to the south in the Biscay area for around the 23rd which will be the busiest travelling day over the holiday period.
Expect cloudy, dry and very mild weather with temperatures about 12c by day and 8-10c by night.
If that high eventually drifts into Europe it will stay there I can see one of the mildest Januarys on record unfortunately.

opinion guy

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The chances for snow at Christmas are now nil!

Thats a very strong statement for a chaotic probabilistic based science. Do you know something no-one else does ?

hotwhiskey

opinion guy wrote: »

Thats a very strong statement for a chaotic probabilistic based science. Do you know something no-one else does ?

I said about week or two ago there will be no SNOW at Christmas and it wasn't guess. I don't know what weather we will have but one thing is for sure it will be a green Christmas.

Elmer Blooker

opinion guy wrote: »

Thats a very strong statement for a chaotic probabilistic based science. Do you know something no-one else does ?

No
I said in my post that the charts are consistently showing high pressure located to the south in the run up to xmas, this means mild sw'lies.

rhonin

hotwhiskey wrote: »

I said about week or two ago there will be no SNOW at Christmas and it wasn't guess. I don't know what weather we will have but one thing is for sure it will be a green Christmas.

How did you come to the conclusion of no snow for Christmas?

hotwhiskey

rhonin wrote: »

How did you come to the conclusion of no snow for Christmas?

Well mate it has nothing do with charts or Meteorological. Sadly I'm not going to say the reason why, you would have people laughing in what i would say about my methods. Lets say as you grow older you grow wiser.

mrweatherman

well judging by met eireanns charts for friday looks some what interesting as storm coming from a north west which could change everything and plung us in to a good deep cold spell.

blackius

One thing I can say with confidence is that there is very unlikely to be a roaring easterly,northerly or northeasterly for Xmas.

So what are we left with,ridges of high pressure,cold fronts followed by the possibility at best of wintry showers meaning sleety wet hail,very wet snow to the higher ground with a bit of sticking as last week on the higher ground of Ulster/north connaught and the tops of the mountains elsewhere.

So if thats what Elmer brook was saying,then don't be giving him a hard time guys.

There is no sign of anything sustainably wintry(for all ie those outside of hilly areas on the odd occasion) in the next 10 day and those who look to Xmas and beyond aren't the ones to be throwing stones in glass house regarding the lack of hope beyond that.
Probability and chaos theory is extreme beyond 10 days in any nwp so not something to base your hopes on.

Not a popular message but If I could see something snowy[snowier than last week like,the type of weather that brings snow to most urban areas of the island] I'd say it.

opinion guy

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

No
I said in my post that the charts are consistently showing high pressure located to the south in the run up to xmas, this means mild sw'lies.

I was making a statistical quip - P=0 is a very strong statement about anything no matter what any charts say.

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Well mate it has nothing do with charts or Meteorological. Sadly I'm not going to say the reason why, you would have people laughing in what i would say about my methods. Lets say as you grow older you grow wiser. more set in your ways and self deluded/demented.

Fixed that for ya

bb1234567

given up on this winter for snow now, i can just feel there will be no snow this year, oh well...im just looking forward to next year now, joe bastardi says this winter will be fairly cold ,not very bad, but future winters will be brutal and says winters after a la nina are nearly always extremely cold

Neddyusa

redsunset wrote: »

The November AMO index goes negative, first time since 1996

This is the first time the November value has been negative since about 1996. It appears the down cycle has started. This portends a cooler period, especially winters.

More here
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/09/the-november-amo-index-goes-negative-first-time-since-1996/

Just wondering Redsunset - is there a connection between the AMO and the bleedin unusually cold westerlies and south westerlies we've been getting here in Connacht for the past 10 days or so?

In other Decembers with an air feed straight in from the west off the North Atlantic, we would have it wet, windy and about 9-12 degrees C. But for the past week now we've been getting such weather from the west only with much lower temperatures (typically 1 to 4 degrees in the rain) and bitter winds.

For example, at the moment it is raining here with a moderate south-westerly and its 2 degrees. Is this something to do with colder SSTs in the North Atlantic?

davidsr20

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The chances for snow at Christmas are now nil! The charts are now consistently showing a very large anticyclone to the south in the Biscay area for around the 23rd which will be the busiest travelling day over the holiday period.
Expect cloudy, dry and very mild weather with temperatures about 12c by day and 8-10c by night.
If that high eventually drifts into Europe it will stay there I can see one of the mildest Januarys on record unfortunately.

So everyone is saying we're ment to be snowed under in jan and ur saying it will be mind,does anyone have a clue about what's to come really?

only one

davidsr20 wrote: »

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The chances for snow at Christmas are now nil! The charts are now consistently showing a very large anticyclone to the south in the Biscay area for around the 23rd which will be the busiest travelling day over the holiday period.
Expect cloudy, dry and very mild weather with temperatures about 12c by day and 8-10c by night.
If that high eventually drifts into Europe it will stay there I can see one of the mildest Januarys on record unfortunately.

So everyone is saying we're ment to be snowed under in jan and ur saying it will be mind,does anyone have a clue about what's to come really?

We're ment to be snowed under in jan?

pistolpetes11

Bit better today after a brief little burst up she is heading back down on the 14 day forecast ,

Joe Public

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The chances for snow at Christmas are now nil! The charts are now consistently showing a very large anticyclone to the south in the Biscay area for around the 23rd which will be the busiest travelling day over the holiday period.
Expect cloudy, dry and very mild weather with temperatures about 12c by day and 8-10c by night.
If that high eventually drifts into Europe it will stay there I can see one of the mildest Januarys on record unfortunately.

There is no such thing as a nil chance with weather forecasting, just ask Michael Fish:)

Gonzo

if this winter looks like being a dead duck then all i can wish for at this stage is a summer that is a bit better than the past 5 summers.

irishdub14

Small bits of ice in the heavy rain, Dublin 13.

Gonzo

the backedge of the rainband is here now and has turned to sleet with the odd flake of wet snow thrown in.

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

if this winter looks like being a dead duck then all i can wish for at this stage is a summer that is a bit better than the past 5 summers.

I think its worth reminding oursleves that today is only the 11th day of the meteorological winter in Ireland. The Great Freeze of 1947 did not commence until after mid January and ran for two months to St Patricks day with memorable snowfalls and sub zero temperatures. There will be nothing "dead duck" about winter 2011/2012 in Ireland.............:D

D

Gonzo

derekon wrote: »

I think its worth reminding oursleves that today is only the 11th day of the meteorological winter in Ireland. The Great Freeze of 1947 did not commence until after mid January and ran for two months to St Patricks day with memorable snowfalls and sub zero temperatures. There will be nothing "dead duck" about winter 2011/2012 in Ireland.............:D

D

true so far it will certainly be remembered in terms of wind, hopefully the snow will come during January-March. I dont mind having no snow during the run-up to christmas because we all like to go out do our christmas shopping and visit friends and relatives with ease then the all important christmas eve pub session.

BLIZZARD7

4.6C here, was 8.6C an hour ago!! DP is 0C. :cool:


This winter will have a severe cold spell at some point, likely end of Jan.


Dan

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Nice drop !!!

nacho libre

blackius wrote: »

Probability and chaos theory is extreme beyond 10 days in any nwp so not something to base your hopes on.
.

That's true. As you say none of us can say what will happen beyond 10-15 days. So writing January off as being mild through out if a euro high develops is what people might be responding to.

opinion guy

Joe Public wrote: »

There is no such thing as a nil chance with weather forecasting, just ask Michael Fish:)

Thanks for that. Bugs me when people abuse/misunderstand statistics

oisingeogho

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

pistolpetes11

James Maddens update



Sunday - 11th December 2011
Public Weather Warning – Wind & Widespread Snow
As if the remnants of Hurricane Katia (an area of deep low pressure) in September was not bad enough, with estimated costs of £100m due to the damage it caused. There has now also been another area of deep low pressure, that also caused widespread disruption this week. It brought with it a top wind speed of 165 mph in the Cairngorms, and there was also heavy snow in Scotland, with certain parts of Northern England and Northern Ireland receiving some notable snowfall too. Many parts of the UK and Ireland are to yet again prepare for another bout of stormy and exceptionally windy weather, as we head into next week.
Here is what I issued on the 2nd September 2011 in my autumn update
There will a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and into winter
Did you notice how I included the word winter in that paragraph too?
I also stated in the winter update on the same date 2nd September 2011 that
Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the south
Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas I expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland
This is exactly how I see things developing in most, if not all, of the UK regions that I mentioned in my last update and above, as we progress through the middle part of next week and into next weekend.
(This is why I have stated since earlier this year “across many parts of the UK”).
Any further updates will be posted accordingly as a severe weather warning on Exacta Weather, it is also advisable to play close attention to your regional and local weather forecasts.
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

bb1234567

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

James Maddens update



Sunday - 11th December 2011
Public Weather Warning – Wind & Widespread Snow
As if the remnants of Hurricane Katia (an area of deep low pressure) in September was not bad enough, with estimated costs of £100m due to the damage it caused. There has now also been another area of deep low pressure, that also caused widespread disruption this week. It brought with it a top wind speed of 165 mph in the Cairngorms, and there was also heavy snow in Scotland, with certain parts of Northern England and Northern Ireland receiving some notable snowfall too. Many parts of the UK and Ireland are to yet again prepare for another bout of stormy and exceptionally windy weather, as we head into next week.
Here is what I issued on the 2nd September 2011 in my autumn update
There will a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and into winter
Did you notice how I included the word winter in that paragraph too?
I also stated in the winter update on the same date 2nd September 2011 that
Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the south
Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas I expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland
This is exactly how I see things developing in most, if not all, of the UK regions that I mentioned in my last update and above, as we progress through the middle part of next week and into next weekend.
(This is why I have stated since earlier this year “across many parts of the UK”).
Any further updates will be posted accordingly as a severe weather warning on Exacta Weather, it is also advisable to play close attention to your regional and local weather forecasts.
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

the guy seems to be still very confident in his cold snowy winter and snow december, maybe he knows something we dont :)or maybe hes just an idiot

WolfeIRE

Mark Vogan has followed suit

"I believe after these two storm pass through this week.. the whitening of the British landscape begins and ends the week between Christmas and New Year, then comes the blocking over Greenland and the cold comes crashing down."

Kippure

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Mark Vogan has followed suit

"I believe after these two storm pass through this week.. the whitening of the British landscape begins and ends the week between Christmas and New Year, then comes the blocking over Greenland and the cold comes crashing down."

Its something that the Models have been hinting at for some time. Then they just go to there default zonelity crazy. The models have been playing around with the idea of high pressure taking a hold, mid atlantic and linking with the greenie. The rest will be history....

nacho libre

His(James Maddens) update smacks of revision. He's got his forecast wrong so far, so now he's updating his forecast and twisting it to make it look like his forecast corresponds with what's actually occurring. Snow mainly on high ground to the north of England and Scotland, is in no way the same as heavy snow falling in many parts of the UK.