Winter 2011/2012

ninebeanrows

First signs of that strat warming hitting the models.

Expecting some decent runs to start appearing over the Christmas period.

derekon

Scubadevils wrote: »

Agreed, I want all those minutes watching and listening to Vogan back!

Unfortunately, we cannot claim that time back

However for each action, there is an equal and opposite reaction - check out the comments over on YouTube under Vogan's latest video. Criticism is starting to seep in!

PS - his ongoing views that "I am continuing to hold onto the belief" and "wanting to see" signs of blocking etc are just aspirations of his and have no impact on the actual reality on the ground. I think I am now realising that his winter 2011/2012 forecast was based on such aspirations
D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQePAfE35Ek&list=UU561yly22XzOylY8FaBwrTg&index=1&feature=plcp

Sponge Bob

I personally hope that Vogan is forever cursed with "having uncomfortable sleep and taking rice-balls." for what he did to the poor snow bunnies around here.

mcriot29

Piers is saying a very cold spell in jan, said at his metting today

Kippure

mcriot29 wrote: »

Piers is saying a very cold spell in jan, said at his metting today

Cant find a link to that? Do you have a link?

Piers will be on the Alex jones show today in america. Info wars.

maw368

I cant find any links to such a video by Piers either??

blackius

mcriot29 wrote: »

Piers is saying a very cold spell in jan, said at his metting today

Sorry.... if it happens it won't be because Piers forecast it...

He's been forecasting very cold spells that never happened for the last decade or more.

So Piers is one not to get excited about and more one to ignore.

His forecast credibility is usually zero.

If we're stuck looking for cold and we have to turn to him,it really is over.

maw368

I haven't known of piers for that long, just a few months but I find he has been as accurate as anyone else. Many of his claims I have seen him make have happened

opinion guy

blackius wrote: »

Sorry.... if it happens it won't be because Piers forecast it...

If it happens it won't be because anybody forecast it.

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Anniversary of the below.


−18.7 °C (−1.7 °F)
Castlederg
23 December 2010

Under a set up that could not be any more different to the current one:

blackius

opinion guy wrote: »

If it happens it won't be because anybody forecast it.

Look,all I'm saying is piers corbyn has forecast snow mageddon every winter at various points and it hasn't happened that I've known him...
He is from my experience the most useless of them all.
Ask Su campu.


It's on a forecaster's form I judge and his is very poor when it comes to snow.It might have came right for him once in ten.
He's considered a joke on most serious weather discussion boards.

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I personally hope that Vogan is forever cursed with "having uncomfortable sleep and taking rice-balls." for what he did to the poor snow bunnies around here.

Fortunately Sponge, this snow bunny didn't discover his videos till after they were discredited - sometimes we just get lucky

bb1234567

blackius wrote: »

Look,all I'm saying is piers corbyn has forecast snow mageddon every winter at various points and it hasn't happened that I've known him...
He is from my experience the most useless of them all.
Ask Su campu.


It's on a forecaster's form I judge and his is very poor when it comes to snow.It might have came right for him once in ten.
He's considered a joke on most serious weather discussion boards.

what forecaster isnt considered a joke at this stage?
madden...where do we start.:rolleyes:
corbyn...very bad:rolleyes:
vogan...recently wrong,best of a bad lot though:rolleyes:
brian gaze got last winter quite wrong ,not so bad though.
joe bastardi..many say hes often very inaccurate and changes his forecasts constantly, he defo not the worst
accuweather have been wrong about last two winters i think someone said,generally very inaccurate since bastardi left especially..
uk met ...their lrf that was...was terrible, last two winters supposed to have been mild and summer before that was supposed to be a bbq summer:rolleyes:
pws..no comment:rolleyes:
wsi..got this oct,nov and dec completely wrong.
ken ring:rolleyes:
donegal postman:rolleyes:
harry kershaw ..apparently had his fair share of failed forecasts.
weather online actually very good!:)
netweather...change their long range forecasts ALL the time,never stick with original forecasts and change and alter forecast with models.
mt cranium...prob the best lrf out there!
weather logistics uk- predicted us to be suffering from widespread severe cold and blizzards by 15-20 december this year.
two weather, dont know much about them ,whats their accuracy like?
anyone missing, if it werent for peter odonell , i think long range forecasting could be dead in the water ,or am i missing all of the really accurate long range forecasters from my list?:P

Su Campu

bb1234567 wrote: »

what forecaster isnt considered a joke at this stage?
madden...where do we start.:rolleyes:
corbyn...very bad:rolleyes:
vogan...recently wrong,best of a bad lot though:rolleyes:
brian gaze got last winter quite wrong ,not so bad though.
joe bastardi..many say hes often very inaccurate and changes his forecasts constantly, he defo not the worst
accuweather have been wrong about last two winters i think someone said,generally very inaccurate since bastardi left especially..
met...their lrf that was...was terrible, last two winters supposed to have been mild and summer before that was supposed to be a bbq summer:rolleyes:
pws..no comment:rolleyes:
wsi..got this oct,nov and dec completely wrong.
ken ring:rolleyes:
donegal postman:rolleyes:
harry kershaw ..apparently had his fair share of failed forecasts.
weather online actually very good!:)
netweather...change their long range forecasts ALL the time,never stick with original forecasts and change and alter forecast with models.
mt cranium...prob the best lrf out there!
weather logistics uk? dont know much about them.
two weather, dont know much about them either.
anyone missing, if it werent for peter odonell long range forecasting could be dead in the water ,or am i missing all of the really accurate long range forecasters from my list?:P

I assume you mean the UK Met?

bb1234567

Su Campu wrote: »

I assume you mean the UK Met?

yep.

M.T. Cranium

Thanx ... check the "second annual winter forecast contest" to see what various Boardsies predicted for the winter. Quite a few are holding their own. In my own case, forecast now very much dependent on outcome of stratwarm episode, blocking developing first half January, cold showing up, and then leaving. But I would be medium-satisfied with any change to cold, not to change the goalposts but just sayin ... as some have commented here and elsewhere, you could visualize this winter staying mild (without the blocking episode).

If you're looking for another forecast that isn't "dead in the water" I would submit Net-weather's official forecast from "Glacier Point" who didn't say much about cold in December and has been pointing to a colder end of January and some or all of February. So he's just on a slower transition than myself, otherwise we seem to be in general agreement (so far).

I think we'll come out okay here, all the keen observers of stratwarm over this side (American Weather Forum mainly) are very bullish on a stratwarm in about a week or two. Now that's not a locked-in guarantee of a pattern shift delivering cold to Ireland, and from my research not a "necessary condition" either, but it's excellent news in and of itself.

Fill the PV and send its remnants to the four corners of the earth, and we have something.

derekon

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Thanx ... check the "second annual winter forecast contest" to see what various Boardsies predicted for the winter. Quite a few are holding their own. In my own case, forecast now very much dependent on outcome of stratwarm episode, blocking developing first half January, cold showing up, and then leaving. But I would be medium-satisfied with any change to cold, not to change the goalposts but just sayin ... as some have commented here and elsewhere, you could visualize this winter staying mild (without the blocking episode).

If you're looking for another forecast that isn't "dead in the water" I would submit Net-weather's official forecast from "Glacier Point" who didn't say much about cold in December and has been pointing to a colder end of January and some or all of February. So he's just on a slower transition than myself, otherwise we seem to be in general agreement (so far).

I think we'll come out okay here, all the keen observers of stratwarm over this side (American Weather Forum mainly) are very bullish on a stratwarm in about a week or two. Now that's not a locked-in guarantee of a pattern shift delivering cold to Ireland, and from my research not a "necessary condition" either, but it's excellent news in and of itself.

Fill the PV and send its remnants to the four corners of the earth, and we have something.

Thanks for the update MT.

Had a quick look at the GFS this morning (which runs to the 9th Jan 2012) - there is still no sign of any sustained cold with the whole motion pattern continuing to be from west to east (which would indicate a strong jet and the raging Atlantic still firmly in charge).

Unless we start to see some of those blue colours making progress south or west towards Ireland, I feel we could be in for a mild mucky winter. The window of opportunity is starting to close in on us................

D

Pangea

There is a lot of talk about this stratospheric warming.
Did we have it for the Big freeze in the 2009/2010 winter and for the 2 Big freezes last winter?

Su Campu

Henry Margusity from Accuweather has said he reckons the eastern US won't see a big snowstorm until mid February, going on past La Niña analogues. This could be an indication for our part of the world too. There's a video on the page below.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/i-see-snow-possibilities-next-week/59428

4. Lastly, I am making the prediction that a Big Daddy snowstorm will occur around mid-February for the mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Snowfall in the 12- to 30-inch range is what I am expecting. I might be wrong, but based on my research of previous La Nina's and NAO's and years that started out warm, the pattern always flips about mid-February and a major storm occurs. I know this is a bold prediction and many of you will be skeptical given the current pattern, but one must look at the data to see how it occurs.

Sponge Bob

More news from North Korea.

http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2011/201112/news22/20111222-34ee.html

Even Nature Seems to Mourn Demise of Great Man

On Wednesday people in the villages near the Military Demarcation Line including Sinhung, Ryongjong, Haephyong, Phungdok and Ryongsan-ris in Kaesong City observed natural wonders.

There were a series of blinding blue flashes accompanied by thunder with an interval of five minutes in the air south of the city wrapped with heavy fog from around 04:00 when heavy snow began falling down to 05:00.

This is something unusual in mid winter.

Witnessing this, citizens of the city said that the demise of Kim Jong Il was so heart-rending that even the sky seemed to writhe in grief. He was, indeed, a great saint born of Heaven, they added.

Elsewhere

http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2011/201112/news22/20111222-29ee.html

Even Land and Sky Seem to Grieve Demise of Kim Jong Il

Pyongyang, December 22 (KCNA) -- The plaza of the Party Founding Memorial Tower facing the statue of President Kim Il Sung standing on Mansu Hill is also crowded with people overwhelmed with profound grief over the loss of the father of the nation.

The mourners are weeping bitterly, calling leader Kim Jong Il in chocking voices.

Looking up to the portrait of smiling Kim Jong Il and then the statue of President Kim Il Sung, they are stamping their feet in bitter grief over the leader's demise.

Chocked with lamentation for three days, not a few people only wept bitterly, unable to say any words.

Redsunset

The Alps in November,taken from the plane by one of my friends.

Redsunset

Piers Corbyn

"Jan 2012 will be an exciting month of sharp contrasts - Often windy with a number of 'torpedo lows' somewhat like ~15-17 Dec followed by wintry blasts of hail sleet snow and thundersnow

Yawns:D

davidsr20

Su Campu wrote: »

Henry Margusity from Accuweather has said he reckons the eastern US won't see a big snowstorm until mid February, going on past La Niña analogues. This could be an indication for our part of the world too. There's a video on the page below.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/i-see-snow-possibilities-next-week/59428

Hope we get the same

tzfrantic

Piers Corbyn is very accurate why does everybody seem to think he is not accurate at all

Conor30

tzfrantic wrote: »

Piers Corbyn is very accurate why does everybody seem to think he is not accurate at all

You're taking the piss, right?!

gothwalk

tzfrantic wrote: »

Piers Corbyn is very accurate why does everybody seem to think he is not accurate at all

I think it's mostly because his predictions are not often matched by actual weather. Doesn't generally do much for a forecaster's reputation, that.

Wild Bill

gothwalk wrote: »

I think it's mostly because his predictions are not often matched by actual weather. Doesn't generally do much for a forecaster's reputation, that.

Does he not get any points for making such hopeful predictions? :cool:

Us snow bunnies need a lot of reassurance.....

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Looking up to the portrait of smiling Kim Jong Il and then the statue of President Kim Il Sung, they are stamping their feet in bitter grief over the leader's demise.

Given the amazing snow and NK footwear I'd say they are stamping their feet in bitter cold over the leader's demise.

Ever go out in the snow in leaky wellingtons?

tzfrantic

so guy here is my question what do you think january will be like could we see snow
what is your forecast for january

leahyl

Just wanna say Happy Christmas to everyone here! Thanks for making the forum so exciting and enjoyable with all your input and here's to a snowy, arctic January!!