Winter 2011/2012

Wild Bill

tzfrantic wrote: »

so guy here is my question what do you think january will be like could we see snow
what is your forecast for january

Me?

Well I'm flattered you ask. So here it is:

January will be dominated by a series of Atlantic lows bringing wet and windy weather with occasional outbursts of sleety northwesters or perhaps some blocking will develop - depending on exactly where the blocks occur we may have dry mild weather or a return to arctic conditions.

:cool:

tzfrantic

Wild Bill wrote: »

Me?

Well I'm flattered you ask. So here it is:

January will be dominated by a series of Atlantic lows bringing wet and windy weather with occasional outbursts of sleety northwesters or perhaps some blocking will develop - depending on exactly where the blocks occur we may have dry mild weather or a return to arctic conditions.

:cool:

thanks so more users what is your forecast
ps. thanks wild bill

maquiladora

What a difference from last year eh?!

Just goes to show how dynamic and wide ranging our seasons can be from one year to the next.

And a merry christmas to all the weather boards regulars.

opinion guy

maquiladora wrote: »

What a difference from last year eh?!

Just goes to show how dynamic and wide ranging our seasons can be from one year to the next.

And a merry christmas to all the weather boards regulars.

Indeed it makes you appreciate how difficult it is to be forecaster in ireland. I mean the winter hasbeen pretty much as warm as the summer this year !! The forecasters in places like Spain have it easy - manana.....Scorchio!!!!!!!!

:pac:

maquiladora

opinion guy wrote: »

Indeed it makes you appreciate how difficult it is to be forecaster in ireland. I mean the winter hasbeen pretty much as warm as the summer this year !! The forecasters in places like Spain have it easy - manana.....Scorchio!!!!!!!!

:pac:

Ethethethethetheth, ethehethethetheth, ethethetheth, Chris Waddle.

Deep Easterly

A happy & safe Christmas to y'all.

9pm met eireann reports from Christmas Eve last year:



and by midnight, it had become even colder:


Let's hope 2012 will prove to be the year where we can actual look ahead rather than back.

Christmas Tune: Imelda May Wexford Carol

darkman2

Nollaig Shona Dhuit



Folks, happy christmas and new year.


Don't be too downbeat about the current forecast charts - things, they are a changin! Really positive signs heading into the new year even if, as yet, this is not quite reflected on the charts. I suspect/hope (more suspect then hope) early January will be of an increasingly polar maritime variety (a shift to more Northwesterly wind and intermittent Northerlies rather then dreary Southwesterlies) followed by pressure rises to our North and Easterly winds by mid January. Watch the models carefully in the coming days. Big changes could occur very quickly and within relatively short forecast period - > 120hrs.


*no, I am not drunk:pac:


Just to keep the spirits up...

25th December 1946, meh



January 1947, yay





So looking forward to the Christmas Dinner! Enjoy!:D

BEASTERLY

darkman2 wrote: »

Nollaig Shona Dhuit



Folks, happy christmas and new year.


Don't be too downbeat about the current forecast charts - things, they are a changin! Really positive signs heading into the new year even if, as yet, this is not quite reflected on the charts. I suspect/hope (more suspect then hope) early January will be of an increasingly polar maritime variety (a shift to more Northwesterly wind and intermittent Northerlies rather then dreary Southwesterlies) followed by pressure rises to our North and Easterly winds by mid January. Watch the models carefully in the coming days. Big changes could occur very quickly and within relatively short forecast period - > 120hrs.


*no, I am not drunk:pac: So looking forward to the Christmas Dinner! Enjoy!:D

I think it is, last two GFS runs hve shown a mid-atlantic block with heights tranferring north. Too drunk too post charts atm, will have a look again tomorrow!

mcriot29

Have a look at this link shows not to get downbeat on this winter,
Could we be about to see a big change

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postst5810_The-Winter-of-1977-78--A-Warning-From-History.aspx

jirafa

UK Forecast | Morning Call | Week ahead | Month ahead | Seasonal outlook | Lookback | European Summary | Topics | Warning UK
Bookmark
Month ahead - December 23, 2011
Valid from 29/12 to 25/01 2012
Not so sure of this one

Issued: Friday 23rd December 2011
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

"Of winter's lifeless world each tree now seems a perfect part; yet each one holds summer's secret deep down within its heart." - Charles G. Stater

There has been some erosion of confidence in the patterns lately, which had performed well in indicating the overall anticipated flow; that is until now. The longer term flow had indicated that high pressure would control the period just prior to and over the Christmas period, ushering in a rather settled and potentially cold spell as a block formed, this pressure rise now looks set to be much further southwest so the inflection is somewhat different than anticipated.
Through the Christmas period with pressure low to the northwest or north and higher to the south or southwest, the flow will be from off the mid or North Atlantic, so alternating between mild and cool conditions rather than cold, showers or longer spells of rain for all areas and often rather windy, this perhaps offsetting the benefits of the maritime flow? The New Year period may see colder weather filtering south but remaining unsettled throughout the holiday period.
The opening of 2012 sees all areas unsettled and rather cool to cold with the threat of wintry precipitation increasing, this mainly showery in nature and although not exclusively the highest threat will be found across northern Britain and higher ground. Through the middle of January the Atlantic becomes more active once more with less cold conditions moving through on a brisk westerly with spells of wind and rain for all areas.
As the forecast period draws to a close there is the hint of a rise in pressure across southern Britain.

*29/12/11*
The flow through until this period sees conditions dictated by low pressure and a maritime orientated origin, low pressure in control.
It'll often be windy at times bring a cool mixture of showers or longer spells of rain, there will be the chance of wintry showers, this most likely across higher ground of the north and west, rain mostly to lower levels.
Temperatures are likely to seesaw as systems track close to the UK, the flow swinging from the west or northwest to the south-west at times, the benefits of this perhaps offset by the strength of wind.

*30/12/11 - 13/01/12*
During this period it looks as if low pressure will be in control for the most part, it'll be feeling increasingly cold too.
It seems as if low pressure will become slow moving and complex over the UK, stalled by higher pressure well to the east or northeast, all areas rather unsettled. There'll be a mix of precipitation through this period, generally of rain across the more southern areas of the country at first, however there is a risk of seeing something a bit wintrier in nature as conditions become colder.

*14/01/12 - 18/01/12 *
Turning les cold here as the flow swings around to the west or southwest, low pressure still in control so remaining unsettled.
It'll be windy for much of the time with low pressure close at hand, rain will affect all areas of the UK from time to time, some of it heavy particularly in the west and north where gales can be expected.
Southern areas of the UK should become drier as a pressure generally rises, with a ridge extending across southern Britain, remaining rather unsettled and breezy across the north and west with outbreaks of rain.

*19/01/12 - 24/01/12*
High pressure looks as if it'll be building across the southern half of the UK, so at least England and Wales become brighter, drier and settled with the risk of overnight mist, fog and frost increasing.
The north remains mixed at first but here too the conditions should settle later.

Simon & Capn Bob
Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk

davidsr20

jirafa wrote: »

UK Forecast | Morning Call | Week ahead | Month ahead | Seasonal outlook | Lookback | European Summary | Topics | Warning UK
Bookmark
Month ahead - December 23, 2011
Valid from 29/12 to 25/01 2012
Not so sure of this one

Issued: Friday 23rd December 2011
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

"Of winter's lifeless world each tree now seems a perfect part; yet each one holds summer's secret deep down within its heart." - Charles G. Stater

There has been some erosion of confidence in the patterns lately, which had performed well in indicating the overall anticipated flow; that is until now. The longer term flow had indicated that high pressure would control the period just prior to and over the Christmas period, ushering in a rather settled and potentially cold spell as a block formed, this pressure rise now looks set to be much further southwest so the inflection is somewhat different than anticipated.
Through the Christmas period with pressure low to the northwest or north and higher to the south or southwest, the flow will be from off the mid or North Atlantic, so alternating between mild and cool conditions rather than cold, showers or longer spells of rain for all areas and often rather windy, this perhaps offsetting the benefits of the maritime flow? The New Year period may see colder weather filtering south but remaining unsettled throughout the holiday period.
The opening of 2012 sees all areas unsettled and rather cool to cold with the threat of wintry precipitation increasing, this mainly showery in nature and although not exclusively the highest threat will be found across northern Britain and higher ground. Through the middle of January the Atlantic becomes more active once more with less cold conditions moving through on a brisk westerly with spells of wind and rain for all areas.
As the forecast period draws to a close there is the hint of a rise in pressure across southern Britain.

*29/12/11*
The flow through until this period sees conditions dictated by low pressure and a maritime orientated origin, low pressure in control.
It'll often be windy at times bring a cool mixture of showers or longer spells of rain, there will be the chance of wintry showers, this most likely across higher ground of the north and west, rain mostly to lower levels.
Temperatures are likely to seesaw as systems track close to the UK, the flow swinging from the west or northwest to the south-west at times, the benefits of this perhaps offset by the strength of wind.

*30/12/11 - 13/01/12*
During this period it looks as if low pressure will be in control for the most part, it'll be feeling increasingly cold too.
It seems as if low pressure will become slow moving and complex over the UK, stalled by higher pressure well to the east or northeast, all areas rather unsettled. There'll be a mix of precipitation through this period, generally of rain across the more southern areas of the country at first, however there is a risk of seeing something a bit wintrier in nature as conditions become colder.

*14/01/12 - 18/01/12 *
Turning les cold here as the flow swings around to the west or southwest, low pressure still in control so remaining unsettled.
It'll be windy for much of the time with low pressure close at hand, rain will affect all areas of the UK from time to time, some of it heavy particularly in the west and north where gales can be expected.
Southern areas of the UK should become drier as a pressure generally rises, with a ridge extending across southern Britain, remaining rather unsettled and breezy across the north and west with outbreaks of rain.

*19/01/12 - 24/01/12*
High pressure looks as if it'll be building across the southern half of the UK, so at least England and Wales become brighter, drier and settled with the risk of overnight mist, fog and frost increasing.
The north remains mixed at first but here too the conditions should settle later.

Simon & Capn Bob
Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk

Thanks but all that doesn't look great,I'll stick with mt, s predictions I think

Pangea

Sponge Bob wrote:

Make that an all time record christmas day temperature ( or near as bedamned) . You yourself were in very early with a spot of unwanted Graupel Ghoulery in fairness.

I'm not complaining about you starting the Heatwave thread, I am just calling you a 11c Cloudy ghoul because you seem to want a heatwave. (You are calling us Grauphel ghouls when we want a snowstorm) .
As for being in very early I was only wishing you a Merry Christmas Sponge Bob

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I say start your own thread when that actually shows up in the models

We did but the Heat Bunnies closed it!

Wild Bill

Pangea wrote: »

That's beside the point. Point being your thread wasn't closed.

Now now fair is fair you don't be going back on your word

What thread are we talking about here?

I don't recall the His Sponginess making that comment on this thread.

Pangea

Wild Bill wrote: »

What thread are we talking about here?

I don't recall the His Sponginess making that comment on this thread.

Its from a different winter thread that was closed
Disregard the quotes in your post by the way, I misunderstood Spongebobs post and was talking about something else (too much christmas drink :pac:)

Sponge Bob

Pangea wrote: »

That's beside the point. Point being your thread wasn't closed.

Now now fair is fair you don't be going back on your word

I didn't close nothin Pangea but I would point out that the thread you miss was just a tad light on charts and supporting linkee poos...it being all text and assertions and chants of "Graupel Graupel Graupel" to the air of Born Slippy ...... and all that.

I'd never have the neck to start an outlier FI thread without some supporting data. The Mods would have it locked up like an otters arse in jig time.

However seeing as this is the big winter thread I would like to point out that The highest Christmas Day temperature on record, anywhere in Ireland, was set yesterday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-16327598

A high of 14.3C (57.7F) was recorded in County Down - the mildest Christmas Day on record for Northern Ireland.
The temperature was recorded in Murlough, where the previous record was 13C - most recently recorded in 1988.

Unless one of the Met E Climatological stations was in some Foehn setup...yet to be reported....that IS The All Irish Record High for Christmas Day.

Always nice to report a Record High Temperature in a Winter thread

maquiladora

What is so enjoyable about 14 degrees? Its neither cold nor warm, nothing that I can imagine that would genuinely make someone excited for just for the fact that its....a fairly mild day.

Surely it couldnt be possible that the real excitement, bold text, grinning smiles, half-playful name calling etc. is just to rub it in the faces of the vast majority of the people on here that were looking for a cold/snowy christmas?

Its basically saying to 95+% of a community : "Haha, what you like and are interested in sucks, haha!"

Trolling is trolling people. Welcome to the internet.

Wild Bill

maquiladora wrote: »

Trolling is trolling people. Welcome to the internet.

The Spongiform is a contrarian, not a troll.

Contrarians are like piles - unpleasant, but a fact of life :cool:

Pangea

I hated this damp weather for Christmas, it is great for mobility I guess but it was really disgusting day here, blowing rain, and fog in places.
Compared to last years beautiful and picturesque crisp weather.

Sponge Bob

Apropos That locked Thread I enclose the following from the 18z FI...NEITHER as a prediction NOR as a wish .....simply as a record.

Wild Bill

btw Mod - if that last contribution seems a bit unrelated to the topic - like so many other posters today I wish to plead inebriation.

If my liver ends up donated, it will be to science - certainly not to someone who needs a new one

Pangea

I don't care if the thread was locked really we all know there's no cold spell coming till theres a Darkman thread!

Wild Bill

Met Eireann are now forecasting a cold NW interlude Wednesday to Friday and back to this humongous mildness for New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Wild Bill

In case there is any doubt about the status of my inebriation I post a pic here on our cat, Jackson.



I'm going to make him my avatar - if I can figure out how to do it......

Of course this is related to Winter 2011/2012 - Jackson has put on an amazingly furry coat this year - obviously he reckons the NAO is heading negative in January. :cool:

Sponge Bob

Pangea wrote: »

I don't care if the thread was locked really we all know there's no cold spell coming till theres a Darkman thread!

Grand, so I'll stay well out of that one shall I? :cool: Wild Bills pedigree cat is probably in heat ...so that don't matter.

Pangea

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Grand, so I'll stay well out of that one shall I? :cool: Wild Bills pedigree cat is probably in heat ...so that don't matter.

Doesn't bother me you if you post every minute in it, you can even create the thread if you like
I have no issue with you being on a cold thread and never said anything of the sorts, I only called u a heatwave ghoul because you called us a grauphel ghoul, nothing more to it I'm afraid. :cool:

Gonzo

today marks the one year anniversary to the end of the 2 great snow spells last winter. This day last year we were so hopefully of seeing a few more snow events during winter 2011, unfortunately that did not happen and 2011 turned out to be very poor for snow (1Jan 2011 - 31Dec2011) with barely anything registering on the ground. Hopefully 2012 turns out to be better!

only one

The mild weather that the models predicted for Christmas Day won over in the end, dashing any hopes of a white Christmas across many parts of the UK. I generally don't tend to pay much attention to what the models are saying when I issue my forecasts, which has proven successful for me within my past forecasts to date, when the models and others organisations have proved inaccurate. (See Accuracy Page Here)
However, my chosen methods of analysis have proven to be unsuccessful on this occasion. This forecasting error will also be reflected upon in the final winter outcome and placed on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. I will however continue to use the same methodology that has served me pretty well to date. I will also incorporate any new aspects of relevance from my future research into my forecasts, of which I will always offer as a FREE long range weather forecast/forecast to the general public.
I have had a large quantity of emails asking me if the last two winters were simply one-offs, due to the milder conditions that we have been experiencing so far this winter?
Unfortunately the last two winters were not just one-off situations. Now although this statement will take some time to come to realisation for the warmists of this world, whilst they revel in their milder Christmas conditions. The next two to three decades will see the UK experience much more frequent and harsher winters. This is also one particular area that I have strongly emphasised on since 2009, and that I will also continue to emphasise on more in any of my future updates and findings.
As I have stated many times before, I never expected December to be the worst month of this winter in meteorological terms. I have also stated that I expect these conditions to prevail as we head into January and February.
January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.
February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland.
As I also stated in my 2nd September 2011 update that we could expect “a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and WINTER.”
I also stated on the same date that “Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South.”
Although confidence is medium range with the factors in Italics at present, these could also prove to be a frequent feature at times within the remainder of winter, and this is why I included this within my update on the 2nd September 2011 (before any other forecaster or weather organisation).

Wild Bill

only one wrote: »

However, my chosen methods of analysis have proven to be unsuccessful on this occasion. This forecasting error will also be reflected upon in the final winter outcome and placed on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. I will however continue to use the same methodology that has served me pretty well to date. I will also incorporate any new aspects of relevance from my future research into my forecasts, of which I will always offer as a FREE long range weather forecast/forecast to the general public.

Hi Only One.

Where might I see these forecasts?

only one

Wild Bill wrote: »

only one wrote: »

However, my chosen methods of analysis have proven to be unsuccessful on this occasion. This forecasting error will also be reflected upon in the final winter outcome and placed on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. I will however continue to use the same methodology that has served me pretty well to date. I will also incorporate any new aspects of relevance from my future research into my forecasts, of which I will always offer as a FREE long range weather forecast/forecast to the general public.

Hi Only One.

Where might I see these forecasts?

It's the exacta weather page from that James madden guy . Google exacta weather. He's a chancer though

Kippure

Wild Bill wrote: »

Hi Only One.

Where might I see these forecasts?

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html