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Horses......... lots of lays

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  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    8.30 Thirsk Trojan Gift 50 €5.00 backed to win and tbp €5 at SP

    Well, this race is woeful tbh.
    This one ish AW 16f form and some 14f turf form on GS, at the price it's worth a little bet me thinks.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Trojan Gift
    layed to win, not matched yet of course but in running one never knows :)
    2.5 €50.00


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    8.50 Ballinrobe Abarta 1.29 €20.00 layed tbp

    Not placed more often than placed and 20f capability is unknown. Reduced staking plan employed for these not tbp yokes now.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    RoverJames wrote: »
    6.30 Thirsk Jupiter Fidius 10 €6.00 to win and tbp Jupiter Fidius 2.52 €4.60

    ..................

    Came 3rd
    RoverJames wrote: »
    .... same race Bells Ocean 2.38 €10.00 layed tbp soft form poor
    Not placed
    RoverJames wrote: »
    6.40 Windsor Swilly Ferry 13.5 €4.00 to win and tbp Swilly Ferry 3.2 €6.00

    ............
    Novellen Lad 2.16 €10.0 layed tbp
    One place from last 10 runs.

    Not placed and third respectively, double wammy of FAIL :o
    RoverJames wrote: »
    7.00 Thirsk Dr Irv 7.8 €8.00 backed tbp & Dr Irv 34 €4 to win.............
    Nope
    RoverJames wrote: »
    7.10 Windsor Mahadee 13.5 €7.00 backed to win and tbp Mahadee 3.85 €6.00................
    Orientalist 1.58 €12.00 layed tbp
    Wants shorter imo

    Both unplaced so bitter sweet :pac:
    RoverJames wrote: »
    7.30 Thirsk First Class Favour 2.98 €14.00 backed tbp

    ..................
    RoverJames wrote: »
    First Class Favour 11.5 €10.00 backed to win.

    Nope
    RoverJames wrote: »
    7.40 Aerial Acclaim 1.09 €150.00 layed tbp

    Could do with this lad having a bad run :pac:

    2nd
    RoverJames wrote: »
    8.00 Thirsk Boundaries 11.5 €25.00 to win

    ..............

    Nope
    RoverJames wrote: »
    8.00 Thirsk 2 - 3 / 3 - 2 17.89 €5.00

    little rf cast too, both have form on soft.
    Nope again
    RoverJames wrote: »
    York Glory 1.39 €15.00 layed due to easy ground

    Won :(
    .........
    RoverJames wrote: »
    8.10 Windor Urban Space 9.6 €30 backed to win

    Down to a rating that it was successful off about 12 months ago, particularly around here.
    Won, thought I was seeing things tbh.
    RoverJames wrote: »
    8.30 Thirsk Trojan Gift 50 €5.00 backed to win and tbp €5 at SP

    Well, this race is woeful tbh.
    This one ish AW 16f form and some 14f turf form on GS, at the price it's worth a little bet me thinks.
    Nope
    RoverJames wrote: »
    Trojan Gift
    layed to win, not matched yet of course but in running one never knows :)
    2.5 €50.00

    Never matched
    RoverJames wrote: »
    8.50 Ballinrobe Abarta 1.29 €20.00 layed tbp

    Not placed more often than placed and 20f capability is unknown. Reduced staking plan employed for these not tbp yokes now.

    Just hung on for third, thought he didn't watching it but the camera only flashed onto them as they crossed the line.

    + €131.78 today


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    6.45 Nottingham Long Lost Love 2.4 €5.00 layed to win

    Quite likely the 6f trip might be a tad short, this one was victorious lto in an 8f maiden.


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  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    7.00 Ffos Las Diamond Vine 2.94 €10.00 backed to win

    I don't pay huge attention to jockey bookings so I wasn't aware last night when looking at this race that Highland Colari was a doubt, with that horse in the race I reckoned Diamond Vine had an excellent chance due to it beating a 5/2fav rated 70 by 4 1/2l off a rating of 67. Also in Sep 10 came 2nd off 69 by a length & 3/4s to a 74 rated rival. I reckoned 2/1 would be a fair price.

    The current odds are surprisingly large given the circumstances, I don't fancy the Yellow Dandy at all (was fav on betfair a few mins ago) over 6f.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I got that one fairly wrong :o


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    7.15 Nott Danzig Fox 8.6 €4.00 backed tbp & to win Danzig Fox 44 €4.0

    Awful race, this lad runs to it's rating and 6f seems to suit. Looks a bit of value, not much in this race I would back tbh.

    A little stake saver lay for in running too
    Danzig Fox
    Ref: ___________
    11 €4.00


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Danzig Fox
    Ref: _________
    2 €30.00

    in case it's very close


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    7.30 Nottingham Judge n Jury 4 €15.00 backed to win

    Should beat this crowd, not beaten far in better races recently (scratch the Goodwood run)...

    26Jul11 Goo 5Gd C3Hc 9K 9-5 15/17 (8¾L Secret Asset 9-7) 12/1 Luke Morris 87 * *
    24Jul11 Asc 5Gd C2Hc 24K 8-10 4/12 (2¼L Medicean Man 9-5) 17/2 Luke Morris 87 * *
    16Jul11 Nmk 5GS C3Hc 9K 9-4 3/6 (1¾L Swiss Franc 9-5) 4/1 Tom McLaughlin 88


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  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    25 at 1.96 on fav in 7.45 as per dead cert log


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    RoverJames wrote: »
    6.45 Nottingham Long Lost Love 2.4 €5.00 layed to win..........
    Couldn't keep up at all with this lot.
    RoverJames wrote: »
    7.00 Ffos Las Diamond Vine 2.94 €10.00 backed to win..........
    Beaten by the horse I didn't fancy at all :rolleyes:
    RoverJames wrote: »
    7.15 Nott Danzig Fox 8.6 €4.00 backed tbp & to win Danzig Fox 44 €4.0

    Awful race, this lad runs to it's rating and 6f seems to suit. Looks a bit of value, not much in this race I would back tbh.

    A little stake saver lay for in running too
    Danzig Fox
    Ref: ___________
    11 €4.00
    RoverJames wrote: »
    Danzig Fox
    Ref: _________
    2 €30.00

    in case it's very close

    Lost and none of my little lays for in running were matched.
    RoverJames wrote: »
    7.30 Nottingham Judge n Jury 4 €15.00 backed to win............
    Awful performance.
    RoverJames wrote: »
    25 at 1.96 on fav in 7.45 as per dead cert log
    Won, but I feel a bit dirty having an odds on to win on my log, desperate times though :o

    -€5.16 today


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    8.00 Kempton Capone5.7€20.00
    backed to win

    Good AW form, turf stuff doesn't bother me.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    +€89.49 today


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    7.40 Goodwood Changing The Guard 13.5 €10.00 backed to win.

    Can't really fathom why this one is the price it is....
    - 10f 0 to 95 on good ground
    - selection is rated 81, came 2nd off 84 to 86 rated rival in April in a 0 to 105, having some much higher rated horses behind.
    - it's next race it was beaten 4l in a 0 to 95 off 85, only one of those ahead was rated lower.
    - then it was 2nd last in a Chester 10f race but only 5l off the winner and most of what finished ahead was higher in the ratings.
    - admittedly sh1t run lto over 9f, no one's perfect.

    The main reason I fancy this one is that it seems to run to it's HC mark consistently enough, it's down to 81 here and the topweight (and fav) isn't fanciable off 88 on good ground, on softer ground I'd be more inclined to fear it. Cry Fury's turf form isn't much to go on but it doesn't point to a win here.

    I'd back this one at 6.0 / 7.0 here so the 13.5 on Betfair at the mo is double that, great value me thinks.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    -€10 today


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    3.45 Newbury Kohala 8 €10 backed

    Has a decent class 1 2nd to it's name, lto when bf. Form not to be sneered at. The fancied ones only have maiden victories in the formbook as yet, lots ofs should bla bla bla...


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Three bets for later at Kempton, dunno what I'll put on them as yet to be quite honest.

    6.10 Grandmas Dream.
    Trappy 5f 0 to 75 HC with plenty of AW experience in the field. Punching can't be completely discounted at the minimum trip but one can't help thinking that longer is more suitable these days, even at 20.0 on Betfair it's not tempting me. The current fav, Fair Passion looks the deal but is 5lbs higher than when beaten by a length by a horse not higher rated, not exactly confidence inspiring.
    Grandmas Dream though does interest me, both of it's 5f AW excursions were decent efforts. Currently 8.8 on Betfair, very tempting.


    7.15 Olynaard.
    No sniggering please :pac: I did have a glance at the RacingPost's comments on this one, they are advising not to touch it. That aside in this company I reckon it has a chance, disregard all turf form and it's more appealing :)

    8.50 Night Lily
    4 wins 3 seconds and a third from 10 AW runs, last AW venture was a 2nd in a class 1 race, I love the look of this ones form to be honest.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Grandmas Dream 9.2 €8


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    RoverJames wrote: »
    ..............


    7.15 Olynaard.
    No sniggering please :pac: I did have a glance at the RacingPost's comments on this one, they are advising not to touch it. That aside in this company I reckon it has a chance, disregard all turf form and it's more appealing :)

    ...........

    Olynard 16.5 €5.00 backed, might be bigger in a while but if it wins I won't really care.

    Also 6.45 Kempton Raahin 2.56 €8.00 layed for AW debut.


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  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    HAve a tenner on this lad.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    RoverJames wrote: »
    3.45 Newbury Kohala 8 €10 backed

    ..

    Won :)
    RoverJames wrote: »
    ............
    6.10 Grandmas Dream.
    ....................

    7.15 Olynaard.
    .........................
    8.50 Night Lily
    ........................
    RoverJames wrote: »
    Olynard 16.5 €5.00 backed............

    Nope
    RoverJames wrote: »
    Also 6.45 Kempton Raahin 2.56 €8.00 layed for AW debut
    Lost, nice to get one of them in amongst the back bets :cool:
    RoverJames wrote: »
    HAve a tenner on this lad.

    That was night lily, wasn't involved.


    +€51.26 today


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Not too many today, I couldn't quite bring myself to peruse the RacingPost that much earlier and have no mind to spend the afternoon doing so, bit busy at work at the moment so need a day of rest me thinks :cool:

    Had a look at Newbury though :)

    3.05 Claremont 19.64 €5.00 backed and €5 at Betfair SP too.
    Very big price for this one, has won over the trip (only one in the field to have done so), comes in 110 at the ratings and has ran to it too which I like. Goes well fresh too. Hugely overpriced for this me thinks.


    3.40 Musir 7.2 €25.00 backed
    I don't think 7f is ideal for Dubawi Gold, I may well be wrong and most racing journalists obviously think otherwise (most are numpties though :pac: ) too. Excelebration is obviously the one to fancy but the price is prohibitive for that one, Frankel form is excellent but how good a horse is Zoffany who came caught this one for 2nd ????

    For me, Musir will find the trip and ground ideal and hasn't gotten both together in some time. As with Claremont, shouldn't be this big.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    RoverJames wrote: »
    .................
    ........ and the new 4 week total +€470.23
    RoverJames wrote: »
    ................

    3.05 Claremont 19.64 €5.00 backed and €5 at Betfair SP too.
    ...................

    3.40 Musir 7.2 €25.00 backed
    .....................

    No good today ........
    -€35 today, which concludes the 2nd 4 week period.........

    2nd 4 week term, from Sun 17th July to Sat 13th Aug
    Total P&L: +€526.12
    ......................
    So the current total which is from Sun 19th June to today.....
    +€1,005.60


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Another lazy enough day today, am a bit wrecked (loooooooooong night) and can't get overly interested in the AW from Dundalk or the Southwell NH racing. The HCs from Pontefract are muddling yokes too.

    3.30 Pon Dever Dream 2.94 €25.0 backed
    Looks worth a bet, overall turf profile is impressive, 6f on Good to Firm is fine, close to 2/1 seems generous.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    RoverJames wrote: »
    ............

    3.30 Pon Dever Dream 2.94 €25.0 backed..........

    Came 4th.
    -€25 for today.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    7.10 Windsor Thistle Bird 3.75 €14.38

    I should have backed this one last night, was 4.7 to win on Betfair, always tough to do so though imo. Anyway...

    - 0 to 86 8f off 84
    - lto in a 0 to 95 came 4th, beaten by a neck and two lengths, those ahead rated 86,89,88 and 84, nothing wrong with that in my logic.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    7.40 Windor Style And Panache 23 €5.00 backed

    This lad is overpriced :)
    - On 5th July 7th of 8 off 77 in a 0 to 85, not great but looking at it my way it ran to it's rating by not having many (only one actually) rated higher ahead of it.
    - Back down to 75 here, won off that before :)
    - Has beaten Scarlet Rocks twice I think over this trip, Scarlet Rocks is 12.0 at the moment, popular opinion would say Scarlet Rocks should beat this one today on the ratings. I don't look at races that way :pac: (rightly or wrongly)


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    RoverJames wrote: »
    7.10 Windsor Thistle Bird 3.75 €14.38

    ................
    Won
    RoverJames wrote: »
    7.40 Windor Style And Panache 23 €5.00 backed
    ..............
    5th, interestingly (or not to some of ye :pac:), Scarlet Rocks crossed the line just before my selection.


    +€32.65 today


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  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    6.40 Worcester Saved By John 1.71 €15.00 layed to win

    Ifs and buts sort of a race, too many unknowns about the capabilities of both the fav and the rest, skimpy price so a lay for me.


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