Horses......... lots of lays

8.20 Kempton Accustomed 7.8 €10.00 backed to win

Big price, 8f suits, AW suits, topweight, huge chance in my book. Place price is a tad skimpy though so nothing there. If it was less than 2.5 I'd lay it though :pac:

mike65

You seem to be doing better for doing fewer picks.

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

You seem to be doing better for doing fewer picks.

indeed with the bank built up I'm feeling more relaxed yet also more responsible about it. I felt under pressure at times in the 2nd 4 week period. Gambling in public was new to of too of course, fingers crossed things continue well, I expect to have more lays over the jumps than the flat.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.40 Worcester Saved By John 1.71 €15.00 layed to win............

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

8.20 Kempton Accustomed 7.8 €10.00 backed to win.........

Woeful really :mad:

+ €4.28 today

RoverJames

3.05 York tomorrow (17/08/11) Seville 2.38 €20.00 backed.

Rationale as per Home and Hosed log

RoverJames wrote: »

3.05 York Seville €20 @ 2.38

Rated 120 in this 12f Group 2 on Good to Soft
- has a touch of 2nditis but acts on good and good to soft, beaten less than a length by Treasure Beach at the Curragh, fav a length and a bit back in 4th.
- 2nd at Longshamp lto with the fav 3l back.
- Sea Moon has an awful lot to do on the ratings and 12f is an unknown, has from on heavy ground though.
- Namibian stays the trip and goes on the ground but has it to do on the ratings.

I'm due a loser in this log but other than that I see no reason why this one isn't a candidate for in here

Actually may well be a candidate for my other log too....

6.30 Folkstone Tidals Baby 3.5 €7.00 backed to win

Has had a decent 7f run lto, looks a better option than the fav.

8.00 Folkstone Caledonia Princess 3.55 €30.00 backed to win

Looks a class above these, 5f seems to suit, has contested much better races than this and ran to it's rating.

7.10 Hereford Akbabend 12 €12.00 backed to win and tbp Akbabend 3.22 €5.00

Looks like value
Last two runs were over trips that were imo too long, trip here should be ideal on ground that suits, it's a very weak 0 to 115 and not many of the field will find the trip to their liking.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.05 York tomorrow (17/08/11) Seville 2.38 €20.00 backed............

Well, well beaten

RoverJames wrote: »

8.00 Folkstone Caledonia Princess 3.55 €30.00 backed to win..........

Caught close home

RoverJames wrote: »

7.10 Hereford Akbabend 12 €12.00 backed to win and tbp Akbabend 3.22 €5.00...........

Pulled up

RoverJames wrote: »

6.30 Folkstone Tidals Baby 3.5 €7.00 backed to win

Caught as well, I'm sure the bastad touched 1.01 in running too.

-€74 today

6.45 Epsom John Biscuit 7.4 €15.00 backed to win

Regal Spice is up 10lbs for a 4l win lto, I reckon that might just be a bit much here, I do fancy him to be placed though but with only 2 being placed it makes that bet a tad prohibitive. John Biscuit caught my eye, creeping down the weights and if you analyse recent races he just seems to have been beaten by better rated horses, trip and ground suits here, odds are decent.

A little RFC bet too with the fav
2 - 3 / 3 - 2
8.4 €4.57

7.10 S'well Piceno 5.52 €15.00 backed to win.
Two decent AW runs from two AW outings, turf form not hectic, the mile seems the trip for this one. Rating has taken a plunge, that coupled with the suspicion that 8f is the trip makes me fancy this one big time. Southwell debut though, nit of a worry but aside from that I reckon it's a sound choice.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.45 Epsom John Biscuit 7.4 €15.00 backed to win..................
A little RFC bet too with the fav
2 - 3 / 3 - 2
8.4 €4.57

Came 3rd and 4th

RoverJames wrote: »

7.10 S'well Piceno 5.52 €15.00 backed to win............

:eek: a winner :cool:

+€45.03 today

Tomorrow......

3.10 York Hoof It 4.1 €20.00 backed

I see the price as reasonable, this lot are all fairly tried and tested, trip, course and ground suit this one, by no means a certainty or anywhere near it due to the number of runners but the price does compensate for that. Not a very original selection but if he's 5/2 or over tomorrow in the betting offices I'll be having a bit on in cash too.
(big disadvantage of this log is that it's too much of a ball ache for me to use by Betfair account for anything but this log, has it's advantages too of course, mainly not putting the lot on something I fancy :pac: )

3 50 spa dancer 5 at 10.5, ground should be perfect

9.20 Wol Straversjoy 8.8 €8.00 backed to win and €7 at SP
Straversjoy
Ref: xxxxxxxxx Bet placed: 18:42 19-Aug-11
€7.00

0 to 70 12f HC, this won is a course and distance winner in a 0 to 75 off today's mark off 64, that time he beat the 6/4 fav by 6L

31Jan11 Wol 12St/Slw C5Hc 1K 8-10 1/5 (6L Aphrodisia 9-5) 5/2 Graham Gibbons 64

got some hikeage for that win as you'd expect contesting two more Southwell HCs over 12f without success, a 0 to 85 and another 0 to 75 off marks of 70 and 71. Few runs over turf than, the most recent two not finishing far off the winner 2 1/2L & 3 1/4L.

lto ran here over 12f in a 0 to 70 off 67 finishing well back, forgetting that run though and it looks a great bet

7.35 Sal Anton Dolin 4.9 €20.00 backed to win

Pity that Gottany O 'S isn't going, this lad though I reckoned was the main danger to him, I think the cut in the ground will suit this one, the trip definitely does but the assistance the softer ground will give might let this lad get his head in front.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

7.35 Sal Anton Dolin 4.9 €20.00 backed to win

Pity that Gottany O 'S isn't going, this lad though I reckoned was the main danger to him, I think the cut in the ground will suit this one, the trip definitely does but the assistance the softer ground will give might let this lad get his head in front.

Ffs, was watching it and saying wtf, specsavers me thinks

-€60 today, absolutely fuming to be honest over that feck up in the 7.35 :mad:

3.05 York Duncan 30 at 5.8 I think two miles will be ideal for this one, that's less an an original interpretation of the form though.

4.45 Chester Mr David 9.8 €15.00 backed to win.
Has some very tasty 7f form, good price here, admittedly Chester debut.
Pity Montparnesse isn't going in the 5.15, fancied him

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.05 York Duncan 30 at 5.8 .............

RoverJames wrote: »

4.45 Chester Mr David 9.8 €15.00 ..........

both lost

-€45 today

I'm quite unnerved tbh, that winner I missed yesterday (Gottany O 'S) has me thinking that I may be in the middle of a humongous losing streak

Derek!

I wouldn't worry just yet James, your still well in profit

Cheers Derek
I think I'll employ a dreaded staking plan for my back bets for the next while and look out for more selections to lay. I fecked up badly last night by missing the one I fancied. I'm +€890ish since beginning but on a bad run.

Re the staking plan, was thinking about it earlier this evening while watching Chelsea not win by - a goal :pac:, the following is what I reckon I should follow for the next lash of bets.........

€200 staked as follows........
16 x €5 bets
6 x €10 bets
3 x €20 bets

Presuming I don'y lay a load of winners that should ensure the betting bank will still be healthy in a couple of weeks.

First day of the staking system :rolleyes: (boring)
To relieve the boredom I think I'll start tracking SPs and bookies prices too, two selections today and no lays as I won't be by the PC today.

3.00 Newton Abbot Sir Ian
Ref: XXX Bet placed: 12:50 21-Aug-11
€10.00, backed at Betfair SP, currently 7.8 but 7/1 in most betting chains so no value on the machine at the mo, won't get much shorter in this race anyway.

Class 1 21f HC chase, 16 runners on good ground.
Though not quite a Class1 horse on paper I really like the look of this one here, he's what I reckon is a proper NH summer horse, all 5 of it's wins have come on a solid surface.

Running off a mark of 140 today lto it won a 0 to 135 by 35l, prior to that it was shd 2nd in another 0 to 135 being 28l clear of the 3rd horse. Taking both of those runs into consideration think that a mark of 140 is not at all unreasonable. I put much more value on a horse getting it's trip and ground rather than what's on it's back in HCs.

Stake wise the €10 invested is a hefty enough won under the new regime, horse has a huge chance I feel.




4.10 Folestone Rum King 7.8 €5.0
7/1 with most firms at the moment, for the stake I'm not overly bothered, bad way to be admittedly in this game
0 to 75 class6 HC good to firm

looking at the race it ran 3 races ago over 6f on GF.....

1 1 Victorian Bounty 5/2F 6 9-7 Stef Higgins 77 * * »
Micky Fenton


« 2 4 nk Rum King (USA) 5/1 4 8-11 Richard Hannon 72 * * »
Kieran O'Neill5


« 3 3 3½ Sherjawy (IRE) 13/2 7 8-10 Zoe Davison 66 * * »
Kirsty Milczarek


« 4 2 ¾ Rough Rock (IRE) 3/1 6 8-11 Chris Dwyer 72 * * »
Adam Beschizza5


« 5 6 1¾ Billy Red 11/4 7 9-2 b J R Jenkins 7

Must have a huge chance here and had to be overpriced, lto race can be ditched completely as it was a claiming race in Sligo on an unsuitable surface, run before that was poor but this horse seem to be very hot and cold, if on a good day a great run can be expected.

I don't like the fav at the price.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

..........

3.00 Newton Abbot Sir Ian
Ref: XXX Bet placed: 12:50 21-Aug-11
€10.00, backed at Betfair SP, currently 7.8 but 7/1 in most betting chains ....................
4.10 Folestone Rum King 7.8 €5.0
................

Both woeful picks, went off at 7/1 and 4/1 respectively, Sir Ian was pulled up and Rum King finished last.

-€15 today

Silver lining wise I'd have had €20 on both of them if it wasn't for the staking plan

3.45 Kempton Dark Islander
Ref: XXXX Bet placed: 22:07 21-Aug-11
€5.00

Currently 4.9 to back but the SP should be greater, has 7lbs minimum on the rest of them according to the ratings (I know I know, broken record :pac: )

7f win at Lingfield shows the surface is fine, stays the 8f trip fine on turf, should have enough to win this me thinks. Not the only one that the mile suits though, so too the surface so only the €5 being staked.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.45 Kempton Dark Islander
Ref: XXXX Bet placed: 22:07 21-Aug-11
€5.00.........

Drifted out to 6/1, finished 7 of 10, woeful pick, consolation wise despite the winner having a course and distance win in the formbook I wouldn't have backed it in a month of Sundays.

-€5 today

3.30 Leicester Spanish Bounty
Ref: xxxxxx
Total bet 3 €10.00 €20.00
Unmatched 3 €10.00


Not matched yet and perhaps it won't be, I want 3.0 on this one though so if it's not matched it's not matched

Almost 6f Class 5 claiming stakes
- on the official ratings Spanish Bounty had a good lash of pounds on all of the other runners
- the 6f is this Spanish Bounty's trip imo, all 4 of it's wins were over 6f
- Spanish Bounty is in good form, lto finished 3rd of 9, beaten just shy of 4l over a 7f trip after being hampered on the run in, still wouldn't have troubled the winner.
- Nearest rival in the betting and on recent form is Barons Spy, another who likes the 6f, 10 year old now and I can't see it being up to beating spanish Bounty in this considering the official ratings and what they're carrying.
- Dorbach has only won once, on it's debut in a 6f maiden, HC form since to me says it's not running to it's rating.
- Tamagin is in woeful form and mustn't be right in itself
- the other two I can't see getting involved

Should this bet be matched it's my 2nd €10 stake in the staking plan and the 4th bet so far.

7.00 Warwick Courtland King 30 €5.0 backed to win

Can't fathom the price of this one to be honest, has won over the trip, ground suits, lto beaten 1/4 length by an 80 rated fav off 77. Goes off 78 here, despite this being a 0 to 85 I don't think it's a particularly strong race. Courtland King was flying towards the end of that race and like all 2 year olds a lash of improvement is quite likely.

The price has swayed me here a bit but a strong case can't be made for anything else, it's that sort of a race in my view.

7 30 reset to fit, 5 at 10 0, sound surface mIGt bring out the best of this one