Horses......... lots of lays

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.30 Leicester Spanish Bounty
Ref: xxxxxx
Total bet 3 €10.00 €20.00
Unmatched 3 €10.00


Not matched yet and perhaps it won't be, I want 3.0 on this one though so if it's not matched it's not matched .......................

Didn't see this race but the Racing Post report doesn't make pleasant reading.

RoverJames wrote: »

7.00 Warwick Courtland King 30 €5.0 backed to win.......................

Never in with a chance

RoverJames wrote: »

7 30 reset to fit, 5 at 10 0, sound surface mIGt bring out the best of this one

Was the best of today's three, had a lot to do, did stay on but never a danger really, seemed to be hampered a tad when staying on close home but that didn't effect the outcome.

-€20 today

I haven't given up on the lays but there's no point laying for the sake of it :pac:

Two bets this evening

8.20 Kempton Miserere Mei 6.6 €5.00 backed
Distance winner at Lingfield, more or less a CD win in my book given the underfoot similarities, real lack of AW experience in this weak little handicap. Decent man in the saddle too, that hasn't influenced my bet but it's worthy of comment


9.20 Kempton Danzoe 24 €5.00 backed to win and also €5 at Betfair SP
(Yes €10 all together )

I'm expecting a GREAT run from this one, running off 69 in this 0 to 70 6f HC, admittedly there is decent AW and 6f form in the other runners too but.......

this one is a propor AW performer, huge bias in the formbook for the surface, 2 wins from 6 runs, compared to 2 wins from 26 on turf........

last run in a 0 to 70 on the AW was off 69 too........
13Nov10 Lin 6St C5Hc 2K 9-3 1/12 (½L Resplendent Alpha 8-8) 8/1 Kieren Fox 69


Not as good in 0 to 75s off slightly higher but the price is HUGE for this one here tonight. Great e/w bet, but I'm not doing e/w in here at the moment.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

...........

8.20 Kempton Miserere Mei 6.6 €5.00 backed...........

9.20 Kempton Danzoe 24 €5.00 backed to win and also €5 at Betfair SP
(Yes €10 all together )...............

Miserie Mei ran a stinker really.
Danzoe I got a run out of, stayed on really well but was too far back, didn't even scrape 3rd despite a valiant run.

- €15 today

6.00 Cartmel The Ferbane Man
Ref: xxxxxxxxxx Bet placed: 23:26 24-Aug-11
€5.00

Bit of an endurance test here, 30f chase, this one won a 0 to 130 HC off 114 back in April off 114 on GF, that was 28f. Kept on very well though and made jumping errors, a clear round tomorrow would put this one in with a great chance.

I don't think Kilvergan Boy is up to the standard to of this race at all, also hasn't finished it's 27f races with aplomb. I think a lay is in order........

Kilvergan Boy 2 €7.77 &2.04 €2.23 (€10 backed at 2.odd)
and lay to lose €20 if placed.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.00 Cartmel The Ferbane Man
Ref: xxxxxxxxxx Bet placed: 23:26 24-Aug-11
€5.00

Went off at 5.49
..................

Didn't see the race, jumping errors apparently, beaten 73L, last of the 5 who finished
"Held up, went prominent 14th, ridden and hit 3 out, soon weakened, tailed off when eased run-in"

RoverJames wrote: »

I don't think Kilvergan Boy is up to the standard to of this race at all, also hasn't finished it's 27f races with aplomb. I think a lay is in order........

Kilvergan Boy 2 €7.77 &2.04 €2.23 (€10 backed at 2.odd)
and lay to lose €20 if placed.

Result wise that went ok, although was going well when unseating rider
"Led until after 2nd, chased leader, led 14th, blundered and unseated rider 5 out"

Went off at 2.5 tbp so had €13.33 coming off that, had backed him tbp at close to 2.0 though so only €3 ish made on that lay, still result was ok, can't complain, minimum liability at SP of €20 doesn't really suit me at the mo though.

-€1.83 today

3.30 Newmarket Sherman Mccoy 24 €2.18 & 25 €2.18
(almost the €5 on at what I reckon is a very decent price, tomorrow I'll be doing well to see this so better back it now at a price I'm happy with)

0 to 95, 14 1/2f HC on good to firm, 14 runners on the card.

Two races that my bet is based on really .....

26Jun11 Sal 14GF C4Hc 4K 9-2 1/9 (1½L Mildoura 9-8) 9/1 James Millman 80
lto won a o to 85 of 80, quite comfy really by a length and a half, now the rise for that is 4lbs, goes off 84 today. If that's reasonable than we have a good bet


25Apr10 Bat 13Fm C3Hc 8K 8-11 1/7 (2L Cool Strike 9-5) 100/30 James Millman 83
Roll back the clock 16 months, Sherman McCoy won a 0 to 90 off 83, beating the 2/1 fav who was rated 88 by 2 lengths over the shorter 13f trip. Now, the hikeage for that was 6lbs. But now we're back down to that (ish +lb), I think this is falling right.

Even though this is a 0 to 95 I think that Sherman McCoy is well handicapped, the trip is ok and the ground is ideal, now anything more than a little rain wouldn't be great, although it would take a decent lash to get the going on the soft side of good I imagine.

HAve just put 10 at 8.2 for that lad tbp in the 3.30, I think that place price is too big, regarding the staking plan, I'll chop one of the 3 twenty euro bets in half for that.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.30 Newmarket Sherman Mccoy 24 €2.18 & 25 €2.18................


................

RoverJames wrote: »

HAve just put 10 at 8.2 for that lad tbp in the 3.30................

40/1 SP and didn't threaten to excite me.
-€15 yesterday.

3.20 Goodwood Dubawi Gold 5.3 €20.00 backed

My first of the €20 hurt bombs :pac:

Poet's voice has solid credentials but there is, in my book, a hugely significant form stat, going fresh, it seems to need a run, 'tis a bit messy to explain so a copy and paste from the RacingPost (excellent publication and site )stats is worthwhile........ twice from three going fresh runs was not at all impressive, through in the preference for GF and I think the horse is well opposable

26Mar11 Mey 10St G1 3846K 9-0 14/14 (21L Victoire Pisa 9-0) t 11/1 Frankie Dettori 122 * *

03Mar11 Mey 9Gd G2 96K 9-0 2/12 (¼L Wigmore Hall 9-0) t 3/1 Frankie Dettori 122 * *

16Oct10 Nmk 10GS C1G1 213K 8-12 9/10 (11L Twice Over 9-3) t 6/1 Frankie Dettori 122 * *

25Sep10 Asc 8GS C1G1 151K 8-13 1/8 (nse Rip Van Winkle 9-3) t 9/2 Frankie Dettori 115 * *

28Aug10 Goo 8Sft C1G2 56K 8-9 1/4 (4½L Main Aim 9-1) t 2/1 Frankie Dettori 112 * *

12Aug10 Sal 8GF C1G3 34K 8-7 2/9 (nse Sea Lord 8-7) t 16/1 Ted Durcan 110 * *

03Jul10 Lon 7Sft G3 35K 8-8 9/11 (12L Joanna 8-10) 58/10 Frankie Dettori — * *

16May10 Lon 8Gd 3yG1 227K 9-2 8/15 (9¾L Lope De Vega 9-2) 10/1 Frankie Dettori — * *

02Oct09 Nmk 6GF C12yG1 104K 8-12 4/5 (2L Awzaan 8-12) t 15/8F Frankie Dettori 112 * *

12Sep09 Don 7GF C12yG2 56K 8-12 1/7 (¾L Viscount Nelson 8-12) 11/8F Frankie Dettori 108 * *

18Aug09 Yor 7GF C12yG3 29K 9-0 3/10 (¾L Elusive Pimpernel 9-0) 7/4F Frankie Dettori — * *

31Jul09 Nmk 7Gd C42yNv 6K 8-12 1/4 (10L Pallantes Cross 9-0) 4/9F Frankie Dettori — * *

08Jul09 Nmk 7Gd C22yMd 9K 9-3 3/15 (3¼L Elusive Pimpernel 9-3) 6/1 Frankie Dettori —


And who better to oppose it with that a brilliant 3 year old who I feel is shaping as though good to soft or the artificial surfaces suit a tad more than firmer turf ground, ye read that here first folks :pac:

Dubawi Gold is best over the mile trip and I cannot resist backing it at this price, admittedly hasn't been wonderful of late but lto I feel the 7f was not adequate for Dubawi Gold to put it's best foot forward.

3ndahalfof6

gl with it R, It will be interesting to see how the mile trip will go down.

SHOuld have won by another few lengths really

3ndahalfof6

n1 impressive, won easing up some jockies would get busted for that

3ndahalfof6

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

n1 impressive, won easing up some jockies would get busted for that

Indeed, I was thinking that he wouldn't have enough yards left to cover to recover from the poor luck in running (or poor handling depending how you view it, I'd be leaning towards the poor handling but it's easy to say that from in front of the telly) but I was also thinking the last furlong he'd be motoring.

Many thanks for the words of encouragement before the off, I read that on the phone in the betting office, been a while since a winner in here ..

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

gl with it R..........

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.20 Goodwood Dubawi Gold 5.3 €20.00 backed

.....................................................

Won at 3/1 SP

+€81.87 yesterday

3ndahalfof6

mmmm something not right with this thread, im on page 55 and its showing page 56 but when I click on it it takes me back to 55,

what are you backing today?

3.20 Goodwood Libranno 4.6 €10.0 backed

A repeat of the CD 4th to Strong Suit should see Libranno get to the post first here, as a 3 yo there is improvement likely and conditions should be ideal, good few runners in opposition though but none have the credentials in the formbook in my view to be entitled to beat this one if things fall right. It could be debated that 6f suits Libranno better but the 8f 2nd to Native Khan appeases that. I can't see Libranno getting any shorter tbh pricewise.

3ndahalfof6

gl with it R, I have backed karam albaarl in the 3:20 but ill stick a wee saver on your pick,

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.20 Goodwood Libranno 4.6 €10.0 backed

............

Won at 7/2 SP

+€34.27 today

6.35 Galway Spin 8.4 €5.00 backed

Tricky race but this one is worth a wager, beaten over 6l lto but only a length off Polly's Mark and 10l clear of the next horse, that's not too bad among this lot, many of which are fairly exposed at this stage.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.35 Galway Spin 8.4 €5.00 backed

..........

Came 2nd, I would have thought the 1m4f trip was within range with connections persevering, after this performance I wouldn't back it over 1m4f again unless the company was very weak, over 1m2f in a suitable race it could be very tempting though.

-€5 today

7.10 S'Well Gracies Gift
Ref: xxxxxxxx Bet placed: 18:49 30-Aug-11
€5.0 win at SP

&

Gracies Gift
Ref: xxxx Bet placed: 18:50 30-Aug-11
€5.00 tbp at SP

Won't find this one tipped up anywhere I imagine, I think it has a real chance though over 7f here in this 0 to 55 HC off topweight.

Taking a peak at the last two Course&Distance efforts.....

02Aug11 Sth 7St C6Hc 1K 9-4 13/14 (32L Clever Omneya 9-4) e/s1 10/1 Robert L Butler 60 * *
Admittedly this is woeful, off TW in a 0 to 60, hence today's price though.

02Jun11 Sth 7St C5Hc 2K 8-9 6/11 (7¾L All Right Now 9-2) v 10/1 Graham Gibbons 63 * *
Rated 63 in a 0 to 75, what finished ahead of the selection isn't much to be ashamed of really, all better on ratings than today's opposition......
« 1 5 All Right Now 100/30 4 9-2 Derek Haydn Jones 70 * * »
Andrea Atzeni

Close up, led 3f out, ridden over 2f out, driven clear approaching final furlong, stayed on (tchd 11-4)


« 2 11 1¼ Koo And The Gang (IRE) 6/4F 4 9-4 Brian Ellison 72 * * »
Silvestre De Sousa

Close up on outer, effort 3f out, ridden and chased leading pair 2f out, driven well over 1f out, edged left and kept on inside final furlong (op 11-8)


« 3 3 1½ Aultcharn (FR) 9/1 4 9-5 Brian Meehan 73 * * »
Shane Kelly

Tracked leaders, headway halfway, ridden to chase winner over 2f out, driven over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong (tchd 10-1)


« 4 10 2¼ Mozayada (USA) 20/1 7 9-4 Mel Brittain 72 * *
Franny Norton

Chased leaders, headway on inner 3f out, ridden 2f out, driven over 1f out and no impression inside final furlong (op 16-1)


« 5 1 2 Elhamri 25/1 7 9-3 Conor Dore 71 * * »
James Doyle

Led, ridden along halfway, headed 3f out, soon driven and gradually weakened (op 20-1)


« 6 9 ¾ Gracie's Gift (IRE) 10/1 9 8-9 v Richard Guest 63 * *
Held up, headway well over 2f out, ridden to chase leaders well over 1f out, soon driven, edged right and no impression (op 16-1 tchd 9-1)



Well worth a punt at the price

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

7.10 S'Well Gracies Gift
Ref: xxxxxxxx Bet placed: 18:49 30-Aug-11
€5.0 win at SP

&

Gracies Gift
Ref: xxxx Bet placed: 18:50 30-Aug-11
€5.00 tbp at SP.................

Awful

-€10 today.

Regarding the staking plan, of the €200, €120 has been gambled. 8 of the €5 bets, 2 of the €10 bets and 1 of the €20 bets remain.

8.20 Kempton Secret Love 10 €5.00 backed

An 8f 0 to 85 HC which is decent enough really.

Firstly, I'll get the cons out of the way
- no decent 8f run to his name.
- hasn't been seen on the track in 10 weeks
- reading of the recent form is less than confidence inspiring

now the pros
- on the AW I concentrate primarily on a horse's AW form, for Secret Love that's as follows...

07Sep10 Lin 7St C52yMd 3K 9-0 1/13 (2¾L Submission 9-0) 2/1 George Baker — * *
Submission had gone on to run decent turf races off marks similar to Secret Love's


13Aug10 Kem 7St C42yMd 4K 9-0 2/14 (1¼L Ragsah 9-0) 16/1 George Baker —

Decent enough to be fair, shows a liking for the surface, I class Lingfield and Kempton form as the one to be honest.

- realistically the races ran recently were very classy and comptetive, though this is a 0 to 85 Secret Love is down in class and on a surface that it has shown a preference for.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

8.20 Kempton Secret Love 10 €5.00 backed...................

didn't stay the trip at all, unplaced after leading for a while, 7f may suit me thinks.

-€5 today

7.40 Kempton Twice Bitten 5.3 €5.0 backed to win and €5 at SP too in case it goes walkies pricewise Twice Bitten
Ref: xxxxxxxxx Bet placed: 18:59 01-Sep-11
€5.00, the RacingPost reckons it's vulnerable to improvers, as a 3 yo I think improvement on his own form is quite likely too

A 12f 0 to 85 HC, 8 runners, horse 6,7 & 8 I can't see getting involved.

Twice Bitten I reckon is a very likely winner, and at the price is value, I'd back this one at 4.0 on Betfair no bother at all.

Proven on the surface, trip should be ok as Twice Over has an 11f win in the form book. Up 4lbs for that, seems quite fair even though that was an apprentice race, still the race had to be won and it was by no means a poor race compared to this horsewise.

The favourite is unbackable for me, HC and AW debut, although the trip is fine on turf for him. Also Planetoid looks well opposable as he's after hikeage in the weights on it's turf displays, carrying turf form to the AW isn't too common.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

7.40 Kempton Twice Bitten 5.3 €5.0 backed to win and €5 at SP too in case it goes walkies pricewise ........

Didn't stay the trip at all, very disappointing.
-€10 today

6 €5, 1 €10 & 1 €20 left of the first €200 in the staking plan.

4.10 Haydock Bawaardi 9.8 €10.00 backed

I really fancy this one here, especially with Free For All not going. As well as coming back down in the weights a bit since it's last win this race is also a much much more realistic target than some of those contested recently.

6.50 Kempton Pulverize 2.38 €7.25 layed

Lots of reasons why I reckon this price is no value at all, I expect the price to get bigger before the off
- AW debut
- 8f debut
- not bad 7f effort on it's sole start so far but nothing to get carried away with
- nothing fantastic in the breeding to encourage backing it at these odds

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.10 Haydock Bawaardi 9.8 €10.00 backed.........

3rd at 10/1 SP, was well off the winner though and was struggling to hold onto 3rd, haven't had a winner since Sunday

RoverJames wrote: »

6.50 Kempton Pulverize 2.38 €7.25 layed .........

Lost after being backed into 10/11 SP.

-€3.11 today

2.00 Haydock First City 5.5 €5.00

Not a hugely interesting selection, the OR combined with what this horse has shown so far indicates that at its best this race is not out of bounds, at the age though improvement is unlikely which does make it vulnerable to the younger animals, still, with Jamie Spencer on board if it goes wrong I can just curse him :pac: