Horses......... lots of lays

2.20 Stratford Tatispout 2.68 €5.00 layed to win

Seems to need a run more often than not so after 4 months off in this large field worth a lay for me.

2.30 Haydock
Zuider Zee 2.46 €7.00 layed tbp

2.45 Kempton Primaeval 5.9 €5.00 backed

CD winner, raised 7lbs for the lto victory here, I think it can defy that and go on to take this, the horse that was beaten 2 and a half lengths 2nd that day, Red Gulch tries again today off better terms but I can't see them reversing placings.

2.45 Kempton Red Gulch 2.49 €8.00 layed tbp

Setting myself up for a double whammy of pain here but I reckon Red Gulch is stretched over the 8f so I think the tbp price is quite skimpy, little lay there too.

I got that completely wrong anyway.

3.45 Ascot Parlour Games 9 €5.00 backed to win

Running off 96 here, topweight goes off 100, 12f on good with a huge field, drawn 16.

This 3yo has gone up 10lbs for recent wins, winning both of his last two starts over 12 and 14f on GS and Good respectively. They were 0 to 95 and 0 to 105 HCs. I don't think the weight will anchor this one, 96 isn't a huge weight and I think this horse will go on to win better races. In it's last victory he didn't have the easiest of passages home but got he head down and did the job. Nicely priced amongst this lot I think.

6.45 Leopardstown Roderic OConnor 65 €5.00 backed :eek:

Yes, yes I know, logic as per the thread here...
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=74181684

Now, I'm not greedy so winning €320 from a €5 bet is more than I could want for in here so I'm setting up a little in running lay to potentially add some meat to the betting bank just in case Roderic holds out in front longer than you'd expect

Roderic OConnor
Ref: xxxxxxxxxx
4 €35.00 €140.00
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'

-€37.42 today, that lay on Roderick O' Connor wasn't matched (just thought I'd mention that :pac:)

2.20 Fontwell Cuban Piece 4.5 €5.00 laid to win

7/2 is a tad skimpy for NH debut, 18f is a bit of a weird distance anyway, manys the 16f horse tried it and found it a stretch, Anthony McCoy in the saddle gives more shrinkage to the price relative to the real chance.

2.25 York Rio Grande 2.12 €5.00 layed

Has had two days out so far, debut at 5f and lto at 6f, lto was a better effort. Despite the 5f being it's debut I'm leaning towards thinking longer in needed so at the price it's a lay for me.

2.35 Dundalk Big Bad Lily
Ref: xxxxxxxxxxxx
5.5 €5.00 €27.50
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'

layed (ish)

Too big to lay, don't think the AW suits, so I've placed an in play lay, can't see it winning but can see it being shorter than it is now in running

Dirty rat of a horse :pac:
At least I got on at the shorter price anyway :pac:

3.00 York Quite Sparky 9.6 €20.00 backed to win

First try at 10f, stayed on well to win over a mile 3 runs back. Up in class then and then ran over 7f on a softer surface which wouldn't suit. Back to class4 here and not badly treated in this race. Some staying stuff in the breeding. Overpriced at this. See no reason why Demolition is the price it is. Admittedly Just Lille is not running but still 6/4 ish is looney.

4.15 fontwell, breaking silence layed tbp 20 at 1.72 contrary ole thing, very short

4.40 dreams and ..... layed tbp 10 at 1.62 all weather debut, happy to oppose

4.50 fontwell surfboard 5 at 3.85 backed to win, looks a bit of value, fair weight hikeage though and tomS in the saddle which I think is never good in my view, tis a wonder I backed it at all :cool:

5.10 liberty to rock, 5 at 8.6 backed, ignore turf efforts and the chance is greater than the price I feel.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

5.10 liberty to rock, 5 at 8.6 backed, ignore turf efforts and the chance is greater than the price I feel.

Won at 6/1 SP
Was the last €5 of the €200 betting bank, pity I used up the last €20 earlier, ah well. One must be disciplined.

+€26.67 today

Derek!

Glad to see you back to winnin ways

RoverJames

As some folk may remember I introduced a staking plan with a betting bank of €200 as I was on an awful run and also thought a fancy was a non runner and it subsequently won after I backed another horse in that race. Anyway the staking plan served it's purpose in so far as my main betting bank hasn't shrunk much at all in the last two weeks

I only had three win bets from the €200 outlay though, they were as follows

RoverJames wrote: »

3.20 Goodwood Dubawi Gold 5.3 €20.00 backed..............

RoverJames wrote: »

Won at 3/1 SP

+€81.87 yesterday

RoverJames wrote: »

3.20 Goodwood Libranno 4.6 €10.0 backed
...............

RoverJames wrote: »

Won at 7/2 SP

+€34.27 today

RoverJames wrote: »

5.10 liberty to rock, 5 at 8.6 backed........

RoverJames wrote: »

Won at 6/1 SP...........

Presuming 5% commission to Betfair my return on the €200 staked was
€81.7 + €34.2 + €36.1 = €152

at SP the return would be...
€60 + €35 + €30 = €125

Not great whichever way you look at it really

As it stands the betting bank is €953.56 which is good considering I started off with €100 but only actually €60 in the account, so really it was €60.

Going forward I feel the focus will be on lay bets, since I introduced the staking plan despite losing €50 ish the balance hasn't shrunk at att, of course the winner in the 5.10 at Dundalk was more than welcome to aid that. The staking plan has been hugely beneficial though, by sticking to one if its sensible relative to the betting bank it will take a while to lose the bank, without a staking plan one could lose a betting bank over a weekend (or shorter)

Rightly or wrongly I feel I'm better at the AW and NH than the turf flat so there might be some profit in the months ahead all going well

Derek!

Derek! wrote: »

Glad to see you back to winnin ways

Cheers Derek, bastad staking plan though :pac: Was mad to throw more on it but I stuck to my guns, longterm 'tis the best thing to do I suppose.

Derek!

RoverJames wrote: »

Cheers Derek, bastad staking plan though :pac: Was mad to throw more on it but I stuck to my guns, longterm 'tis the best thing to do I suppose.

There a pain in the arse :mad: but at least they limit the loss when your havin a bad run.

7.05 Roscommon Blossom Gate 1.98 €15.00 layed

As a punter this lad ticks many boxes for a good bet, it has good form on the yielding surface, it has won it's races well, implying that the longer trip today will suit. But then there's the price, it's really short, there's many other runners, some of which stay longer trips, some of which are unexposed over this trip. Far too many unknowns to justify backing this one at the odds, so it's a lay.

7.35 Roscommon Morning Ireland
Ref: xxxxxxxxxxx
2 €15.00 €30.00
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'

Maybe layed

This one is a front runner, proven at the trip but not on the ground, I expect the horse to make the running so the price should shorten to be matched in running. Plenty of other candidates to win.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

7.05 Roscommon Blossom Gate 1.98 €15.00 layed....................

RoverJames wrote: »

7.35 Roscommon Morning Ireland
Ref: xxxxxxxxxxx
2 €15.00 €30.00
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'

Maybe layed ............

Both lost and the 2nd lay was matched in running
+€28.52 today

8.20 kempton incendo 30 at 5.7, apologies about lack of bla but comp issues

Bastad computer :pac:
Anyway...... 8.50 Kempton Gower Rules 24 €20.00 backed and an inrunning lay which I expect will be matched..
Gower Rules
Ref: xxxxxxxxx
10 €30.00 €300.00
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'

Rationale......... 11f 0 to 65 HC, Gower Rules' lto over CD was off 63 in a much better race, led until 4f out and was then beaten by two better horses, finished 3rd 4 1/2l back.

Amongst this lot I am expecting better, I'm also expecting the price to fall a good bit in running as I don't envisage a change in tactics.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

8.20 kempton incendo 30 at 5.7..........

2nd at 4/1 SP

RoverJames wrote: »

Bastad computer :pac:
Anyway...... 8.50 Kempton Gower Rules 24 €20.00 backed and an inrunning lay which I expect will be matched..
Gower Rules
Ref: xxxxxxxxx
10 €30.00 €300.00
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'...........

3rd at 20/1, the in running lay was not matched, Gower Rules led until 2f out but the eventual winner was cruising alongside him unfortunately, I'd be interested to see what the lowest in play price was, I would think it was not far away from the 10.0, ah well. I'll have a looksee at that tomorrow me thinks. 12.0 just checked

I'm surprised as the distance Gower Rules was beaten by, he simply didn't seem to stay at all where as in the Class 4 race I reckoned it was due to the better horses. Funny ole game :pac:


I forgot to add -€50 today.

3.00 Doncaster Meeznah 4.2 €15.00 and at SP Meeznah
Ref: xxxxxxxxx Bet placed: 22:48 07-Sep-11
€15.00

After the effort lto many will be discounting this ones chances, however in her favour she is proven over the trip in tasty races, admittedly the blot on the copybook is a shade worrying but if putting the best hoof forward tomorrow the 3/1 ish will look huge.

Prior to lto Meeznak won a Class1 stakes at Goodwood over 14f beating similarly rated horses easily, the 14f trip poses no issue in this class of race. That performance was very very impressive.

Set to Music (fav at the moment on Betfair at 3.1) to me represents no value at all. Has won her last 4 races, 3 over 10f and the most recent over 12f. The 14f trip tomorrow is a bit of an unknown for her to those of us who rely on the formbook. Pedigree wise 14f may well be a bit too far too. Anyway, rightly or wrongly I'm more of a the horse has been there and done that rather than the horse should and might do xyz so on the trip alone I'm dubious.

But then look at the form, the 12f Class1 stakes Set to Music won lto doesn't look a particularly strong one, Cracking Lass was 2 1/4L back in 2nd with 13lbs more on her back (4yo), Polly's Mark was 5 1/4l beaten 3rd. Interestingly Polly's Mark was about the same behind Meeznah at Goodwood.

I reckon both will be held up, Set to Music will be a length or two behind Meeznah, when the dash comes I don't see Meeznah being outstayed.

Just a word about Sense of Purpose, I reckon this won will be prominent from the off, may not make the running but I think she'll be outclassed, I could see her coming 2nd to Meeznah.

:cool:

8.40 Wolverhampton Albertus Pictor 3.1 €25.0 backed

Apologies to be going with the obvious choice but even at 2/1 ish I think there is a lash of value here, I'd be tempted to back this one at 6/4 tbh, there is a very very good chance that Albertus Pictor is classes above this lot, perhaps it's an Owen Hargreaves type of animal.

Lots in it's favour, the trip, the surface, the rating, the 9 month absence isn't a huge worry as it ran well after a 10 month absence last year. No doubt it has some issue or other to keep it from the track but if fit and well I can see Albertus Pictor winning here by lengths.

The suspicion that Albertus Pictor is potentially a very decent animal is from the lto form, 2nd to a horse that now has a rating in the 90s, that day Albertus was 11l clear of the 3rd horse.

Not much more to say really, my thoughts are much the same as those in the Racing Post (coincidence :pac: )

For value seekers at larger prices though I fancy Langley to get involved too though so I've done a little rfc bet there with the fav.....

Langley's Lingfield run in March seems decent ........
1 6 Beaubrav 100/30 5 8-13 t Michael Madgwick 85 * * »
Jim Crowley

Prominent, shaken up and quickened to lead approaching final furlong, comfortably (op 4-1)


« 2 8 1¾ Tominator 13/2 4 9-2 Reg Hollinshead 90 * * »
Tony Culhane

Steadied in last place, effort and plenty to do entering straight, ridden and stayed on to go second towards finish, no chance with winner (op 8-1)


« 3 5 nk Bowdler's Magic 11/4F 4 8-13 Mark Johnston 87 * * »
Neil Callan

Tracked leaders, effort and every chance over 2f out to approaching final furlong, kept on same pace, lost second towards finish (op 3-1 tchd 10-3)


« 4 2 2 Langley 40/1 4 8-10 Pat Murphy 84 * * »
Robert Havlin

Held up in touch, ridden when edged left over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, never able to challenge (tchd 33-1)

I don't think the trip was the problem that day, the class of the opposition was.
1 - 4 / 4 - 1 26 €4.00