Horses......... lots of lays

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.00 Doncaster Meeznah 4.2 €15.00 and at SP Meeznah
Ref: xxxxxxxxx Bet placed: 22:48 07-Sep-11
€15.00
.....................

Meeznah won at 5/2
Didn't see the race but it appears I was not far off with my little preview, Sense of Purpose led for most of it with Meeznah and Set to Music tracking, Meeznah winning easily by over 3 lengths with Set to Music in 2nd.

BTW Spin who I backed a few weeks back again faded again, entered for two more races over the coming weeks, one of which is over a trip far more suitable in my view.

RoverJames wrote: »

8.40 Wolverhampton Albertus Pictor 3.1 €25.0 backed
......................
For value seekers at larger prices though I fancy Langley to get involved too though so I've done a little rfc bet there with the fav...................

Poor enough really, Langley finishing 4th beat Albertus Pictor, rounding the bend I thought I had a chance, such is the game. I don't reckon I'd back Langley over this trip again, I think there is a race in Albertus Pictor, the run may well have done this one the World of good.

+ €57.35 today

2.25 Doncaster Tastahil 16 €10.00 €150.00

Back to more less predictable selections

Opinion Poll is currently 2.78 on Betfair which is horrifically short in my view in comparison to the price I have taken on Tastihill when you look at the formbook. Admittedly Opinion Poll is in great form recently but I do like concrete form over a races trip and Opinion Poll is a tad lacking in that, last years result of this race........

1 6 Samuel 5/1 6 9-1 John Gosden 112 * *
William Buick

Tracked leaders, smooth headway 4f out, led over 2f out, ridden and wandered over 1f out, driven entering final furlong, stayed on (op 11-2)


« 2 8 1¼ Tastahil (IRE) 22/1 6 9-1 B W Hills 110 * * »
Richard Hills

Soon tracking leader, headway to lead well over 3f out, ridden and headed over 2f out, soon driven and kept on inside final furlong (op 20-1)


« 3 9 hd Motrice 4/1 3 7-12 Sir Mark Prescott Bt 101 * * »
Silvestre De Sousa

Held up and behind, headway over 3f out, chased leaders over 2f out and soon ridden, edged left and driven over 1f out, edged right and wandered inside final furlong, kept on, nearest finish (op 7-2 tchd 9-2 in a place)


« 4 4 3½ Opinion Poll (IRE) 3/1F 4 9-4 Michael Jarvis 114 * * »
Philip Robinson

Held up towards rear, headway on inner 4f out, chased leading pair over 2f out, ridden well over 1f out and soon one pace (tchd 7-2)


« 5 3 hd Dirar (IRE) 8/1 5 9-1 Gordon Elliott 108 * * »
Jamie Spencer

Tracked leaders, headway over 3f out, ridden over 2f out, soon driven and one pace (op 9-1)

The frontrunning Tastihill was still going like a good thing after being headed whereas Opinion Poll clearly didn't relish the last furlong or two. Now since then Opinion Poll has had a similar effort over 2m4f which at a glance does suggest that 2m2f would suit, however horse racing isn't that clear cut as one must consider the pace they travel at bla bla bla. To me it seems that beyond 2 miles Opinion Poll isn't at his best.

Another positive in backing Tastihill (besides the trip and course suiting) is that Tastihill won't be running if the ground doesn't suit, now I wouldn't be 100% convinced that a good lash of rain would enhance Opinion Poll's chances dramatically but it wouldn't be helping Tastihill. However, if the ground is deemed suitable for Tastihill there is a good chance it won't be suiting Opinion Poll as much.

Should be a very decent race to watch should Tastilhill run.

There'll be more lays creeping back in once the NH gets going properly, summer NH is not my thing tbh.

Looks like he will be running, i have placed a lay for in running, 14 at 3.0

3.45 Chester English Summer 15.5 €10.00 backed

Potential question marks over the trip I suppose but there's no real shame in weakening over the last furlong in a 0 to 105 Class 2 HC at Ripon off an OR of 91. Couple that with the 13f victory here off 89 in a 0 to 90 and the Chester factor starts compensating quite a bit for the stamina question mark, of course the huge price helps too.

3.55 Sandown Orientalist 9.8 €10.00

Looks far from handicapped out of taking this when last years rating is looked at, also the 9f lto victory puts this 8f trip as likely suiting considering there are 3 7f victories in the form book too.

HAve layed the fav 10 at 3.25 down royal

6.10 wol, all my heart, layed, 40 at 1.72 , solid enough credentials but I reckon a longer trip would suit more with the penalty, don't think if will have the kick if required to finish this off.

6.40 wol Mayan flight, 10 at 8.2, I like the last effort from this one which was its first venture on this track, cd form is not too prevalent in this race.

7.10 Wolverhampton Juno The Muffinman 1.85 €2.31 & 1.85 €11.55 layed tbp

Wolverhampton debut and also debut over 8f, of the three runs so far none in my view warrant the price to be this short. On form I wouldn't pick this one out as a contender in an 8f AW race, admittedly I am relying on the rest of the field not to be really poor.

8.10 Wolverhampton Silly Billy 17.5 €10.00 backed

I don't quite understand why this one is priced so big, 'tis a 0 to 65 7f HC. Silly Billy's CD form reads as follows..

12Mar11 Wol 7St C43yHc 3K 8-12 3/12 (3½L Kingscroft 8-11) 16/1 Liam Keniry 76


18Feb11 Wol 7St C53yHc 2K 8-13 1/7 (¾L Dasho 9-7) 14/1 Luke Rowe 72


01Nov10 Wol 7St C62ySl 1K 8-9 2/11 (1L Kissing Clara 8-6) 25/1 Luke Rowe 64


09Aug10 Wol 7St C42yHc 3K 8-7 5/7 (11½L Miss Clairton 9-5) 14/1 David Probert 67

the most recent 3 of the 4 are quite decent, a 0 to 85, 0 to 75 and the 2nd to Kissing Claire which was a seller.

Down to a 0 to 65 HC it looks a very big price, some of the AW from since the 12th March run isn't bad either.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.25 Doncaster Tastahil 16 €10.00 €150.00

..............................

Was well beaten, Opinion Poll finished ahead of this one.

RoverJames wrote: »

3.45 Chester English Summer 15.5 €10.00 backed

.............

I thought the jockey gave this one a less than good ride, well beaten still though.

RoverJames wrote: »

3.55 Sandown Orientalist 9.8 €10.00..........

Looked to be carrying a stone too much

RoverJames wrote: »

HAve layed the fav 10 at 3.25 down royal

Lost

RoverJames wrote: »

6.10 wol, all my heart, layed, 40 at 1.72 .............

Looked in trouble but ground out the win

RoverJames wrote: »

6.40 wol Mayan flight, 10 at 8.2, I like the last effort from this one which was its first venture on this track, cd form is not too prevalent in this race.

Was prominent for a while but went out like a light

RoverJames wrote: »

7.10 Wolverhampton Juno The Muffinman 1.85 €2.31 & 1.85 €11.55 layed tbp...........

dead heated for third

RoverJames wrote: »

8.10 Wolverhampton Silly Billy 17.5 €10.00 backed..........

Seemed to travel well but never featured, one to keep an eye on I'd say perhaps.

-€68.30 today

2.20 goodwood French navy 20 at 3.3, amazed at the price of this one, great chance on paper, rating and trip suits, can't see why its so big price wise. Doesn't mind softer than good either.

3.30 Chester Prince Bishop 6 €10 & at Betfair SP Prince Bishop €10.00

Another selection whose price has me baffled, I've split the stake here in case it gets any bigger (unlikely but you never know), I'm happy with the tenner on at 5s anyway so that will compensate if it gets shorter.

The only possible reason I can suggest for this ones price being so big is that there is a slant on the formbook for softer ground, in saying that I can't see it being too firm at Chester, it certainly doesn't look it. The trip is ideal for this horse and the OR of 114 puts him a few pounds above the rest at least conceptually in some cases. Importantly I reckon Chester will suit this lad down to the ground and over a trip like today's that's essential, I reckon that from the Clairfontein success.

I do hope this lad wins as I have it doubled with French Navy with real money.

5.20 Kempton My Love Fajer 8.8 €5.00 and at SP My Love Fajer €5.00

I like the way this one is placed in this race, if I was connections I'd be looking to have it in a 5f Kempton HC off topweight. This is a 0 to 60 5f race and My Love Fajer is rated 60.

Decent AW form is scarce in this race but there are three particularly interesting pieces of it in My Love Fajer's past.

The most recent of these is not so interesting to be honest...

10Aug11 Wol 5St C63yHc 1K 9-2 1/6 (¾L Missile Attack 9-2) 6/1 Tom Queally 55

Winning a 0 to 60 off 55 at Wolverhampton, in 21 starts that's its only win, not remarkable in isolation really.

But when coupling it with a bit of it's older form (Kempton 29 Jun 2011) ...

« 1 8 King Ferdinand 11/8F 3 9-7 Andrew Balding 75 * * »
William Buick

Good speed from wide draw, made all, ridden and quickly drew clear over 1f out, in no danger after, eased last 75yds (op 2-1)


« 2 2 3 Hoover 8/1 3 9-2 Jim Boyle 70 * * »
Stephen Craine

Chased winner 2f, stayed close up, outpaced over 1f out, stayed on to take 2nd again last strides (op 7-1)


« 3 1 nk My Love Fajer (IRE) 13/2 3 7-12 Alan McCabe 57 * * »
Kieran O'Neill5

Held up in touch, progress on inner over 2f out, driven to chase winner over 1f out, no impression, lost 2nd last strides (op 11-2)

Ye can appreciate why I think he's nicely placed here, he lost 2nd in the last few strides to a horse rated 70 in a much better race than this.


Then have a look at the last piece I'll bore ye with :pac:, 0-70 6f HC here at Kempton on 03 Sep 2010
...........

1 10 Golden Tempest (IRE) 10/1 2 9-3 Walter Swinburn 66 * * »
Shane Kelly

Held up in 8th, ridden and good progress from 2f out to lead just over 1f out, soon clear (op 8-1)


« 2 4 3 Freckenham (IRE) 4/1 2 9-6 Michael Bell 69 * * »
Hayley Turner

Held up in 7th, effort on inner over 2f out, hard ridden over 1f out, stayed on to take 2nd last 100yds, no chance with winner (tchd 7-2)


« 3 5 1½ My Love Fajer (IRE) 28/1 2 9-2 George Prodromou 70 * * »
Kieren Fox5

Chased leader, reminder over 3f out, driven to lead 2f out, headed just over 1f out, faded last 100yds (op 25-1)

Again just lost out close home.

Topweight off 60 (low for this horse who as a 3yo is still quite likely improving) in a 5f HC at Kempton to me looks ideal.

Admittedly there are previous races in the formbook that looked suitable too but not off this low mark off topweight.

5.55 Kempton Kyllachy Spirit 5.7 €10.00 and at SP Kyllachy Spirit €10.00

HC debut so hard to decide is the OR rating apt or not, if it is he has a HUGE chance here. The fav, Dare to Bare has twice been beaten over CD off a mark off 67 by horses rated much of a muchness with it so the rise to 71 looks to perhaps anchor it's chances.

Kyllachy Spirit was headed over 2f out in a 12f maiden here and then went on to win a 9f maiden at Wolverhampton by 8l. The 10f here may well be ideal and if so the 9 13 on it's back may well be a great help in Kyllachy Spirit getting it's nose in front where it matters.

7.25 Kempton Tweet Lady 4.8 €10.00 backed

Up 4lbs for a 7f victory in a 0 to 70 HC lto here at Kempton, stayed on well that day to win quite well so the step up to 8f may well suit.

I don't fancy the fav, My Sharona at all. Beaten lto on turf over 8f by mediocre yokes I don't think the mile suits, Kempton debut tonight so another reason to oppose, however I don't feel like laying it at 3.0 ish either given the weakness of the race. In saying that the place price is dis-proportionally short so I'll have a little lay at that.......

My Sharona 1.71 €10.00 layed tbp

7.55 Kempton Always Like This 1.83 €15.00 layed to win

A bit too short pricewise for what this one has achieved to date, taking into account it's a maiden of course

Hasn't seen out either of her 7f AW starts so far but that's not to say that the 6f will prove the fix, when challenged she doesn't like to get stuck in, I feel she is just not a winner.

8.25 Kempton Andorn 6.8 €5.00 and at SP Andorn €5.00

The price is not an accurate reflection of this ones chances here me thinks.

lto came 4th over CD off the same mark in a 0 to 70 HC, this is a 0 to 65 and you'll struggle to find CD form as good in the field........

« 1 4 Where's Susie 9/1 6 9-2 Michael Madgwick 70 * *
Dane O'Neill

Held up in last trio, not clear run well over 2f out and switched left, good progress to chase leader 1f out, ran on well to lead last 75yds, ridden out (op 11-1 tchd 12-1)


« 2 3 1 Addwaitya 13/2 6 9-7 Laura Mongan 75 * *
Ian Mongan

Held up in last trio, good progress on outer to lead 2f out, ran on but headed and outpaced last 75yds (op 8-1)


« 3 7 3¼ Soundbyte 8/1 6 8-10 John Gallagher 67 * *
John Fahy3

Early reminders to get going, raced wide in midfield, progress to try to challenge just over 2f out but soon outpaced, kept on (op 10-1 tchd 12-1)


« 4 5 ½ Andorn (GER) 10/1 7 8-11 Philip Kirby 65
Tracked leaders, not clear run over 2f out just as race was unfolding, ridden and stayed on from over 1f out, not recover (op 8-1)

On the result alone the horse did well, beaten by 3 higher rated animals, the trouble in running conceptually brings it lengths closer to the winner, could well win this race by lengths, I'll be happy with anything over a dead heat

8.55 Kempton Rezwaan 3.74 €10.00 layed tbp

Surely the 7f trip off this mark will have him well and truly anchored, takes a while to get going and generally jumps late, I can't see him having the speed to be a factor here.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.20 goodwood French navy 20 at 3.3, ...........

Won very well at 2/1 SP

RoverJames wrote: »

3.30 Chester Prince Bishop 6 €10 & at Betfair SP Prince Bishop €10.00.................

Awful performance really, think it finished last, not 100% on that though, awful anyway.

RoverJames wrote: »

5.20 Kempton My Love Fajer 8.8 €5.00 and at SP My Love Fajer €5.00..............

Close to last again if not last, never in contention, I reckon it will win a race though soon, at Wolverhampton perhaps.

RoverJames wrote: »

5.55 Kempton Kyllachy Spirit 5.7 €10.00 and at SP Kyllachy Spirit €10.00............. Kyllachy Spirit getting it's nose in front where it matters.

Won at 4/1 SP by a little over a nose. Wouldn't back it again though for a while, both Kyllachy Spirit and the horse it just beat drew well clear on the remainder, big spanking due from Mr Handicapper I think.

RoverJames wrote: »

7.25 Kempton Tweet Lady 4.8 €10.00 backed

Up 4lbs for a 7f victory in a 0 to 70 HC lto here at Kempton, stayed on well that day to win quite well so the step up to 8f may well suit.

I don't fancy the fav, My Sharona at all. .................

My Sharona 1.71 €10.00 layed tbp

Tweet Lady won (just) at 7/2 SP, My Sharona 2nd.

RoverJames wrote: »

7.55 Kempton Always Like This 1.83 €15.00 layed to win.......

Well beaten despite loads of money going on and the price getting shorter.

RoverJames wrote: »

8.25 Kempton Andorn 6.8 €5.00 and at SP Andorn €5.00..............

Led from the start, change in tactics didn't suit, I'll be watching to see how the HCer reacts and may well be backing this one again.

RoverJames wrote: »

8.55 Kempton Rezwaan 3.74 €10.00 layed tbp...............

Came last


+€139.56 today

I did say a few days ago I like the AW

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

........

2nd 4 week term, from Sun 17th July to Sat 13th Aug
Total P&L: +€526.12
......................
So the current total which is from Sun 19th June to today.....
+€1,005.60

3rd 4 week term, from Sun 14th Aug to Sat 10th September
Total P&L: -€13.82

And the current total which is from Sun 19th June to today....
Total P&L: €991.78

I'd have taken that 12 weeks ago when the balance in Betfair was €60, fingers crossed I won't be putting in that €40 for a while

4.10 Goodwood Tariq Too 7 €10.00 and at SP Tariq Too €5.00, although I would be surprised if this one drifted by much from the current price.

Valencha is the obvious choice considering the ease in the ground but the 2.82 / 6/4ish price is prohibitively short, especially when Tariq Too has similarly good credentials.

12 months ago in a 0 to 80 8f HC Tariq Too put in a solid display before fading in the last furlong on soft ground at Haydock.........

« 1 10 Scrapper Smith (IRE) 16/1 4 8-9 Alistair Whillans 72 * * »
Garry Whillans7

Held up and behind, headway over 3f out, tracked leading pair over 1f out, switched right and ridden entering final furlong, stayed on strongly to lead last 50yds (op 12-1)


« 2 9 1½ Amethyst Dawn (IRE) 14/1 4 9-6 Tim Easterby 76 * * »
David Allan

Tracked leaders, headway on wide outside to lead 3f out, ridden and headed well over 1f out, driven and rallied to lead again inside final furlong, headed and no extra last 50yds (op 16-1)


« 3 4 1½ Tariq Too 4/1J 3 9-1 David Simcock 75 * * »
William Buick

Dwelt and towards rear, smooth headway 3f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, driven and headed inside final furlong, one pace (op 9-2)

I like yokes that make smooth headway on soft ground, it shows a likeness for the surface that appeals big style to my punting nerves, Tariq Too was 4/1 JF that day.

Previously Tariq Too won over 7f on GS in a maiden and since the Haydock run also won a 0 to 85 HC on good off a rating of 76, racing off 70 today in this 0 to 85 but I think the soft ground will ensure we see Tariq Too at his best today.

Off 82 I reckon Valencha has enough to do in this, has been beaten by horses rated lower recently and when it won over CD on soft was rated 72 at 6/5fav in a 0 to 85 4 runner contest that was as weak as water.

WON so easy he threw the whip away :pac: went off 79 too, that 70 was a typo.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.10 Goodwood Tariq Too 7 €10.00 and at SP Tariq Too €5.00...................

Won at 13/2, came from last to first and won quite cosily in the end, seemed to love the conditions.

+€98.02 today

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

As some folk may remember I introduced a staking plan with a betting bank of €200 as I was on an awful run and also thought a fancy was a non runner and it subsequently won after I backed another horse in that race. Anyway the staking plan served it's purpose in so far as my main betting bank hasn't shrunk much at all in the last two weeks

I only had three win bets from the €200 outlay though.............


................

at SP the return would be...
€60 + €35 + €30 = €125

Not great whichever way you look at it really ...........

Things have improved a tad since then
As the tide turned I didn't feel the need to be as shackled, since that €200 I've wagered €225 over 15 selections, 5 of which won

At SP the return from the €225 is €332.50 I think, haven't worked out the Betfair return as yet as it only dawned on me a few mins ago that I've probably racked up the €200 already.

Combining them both results in €425 wagered and a return of €457.50 at SP which does keep the feet on the ground.

I should be doing more lays though but there's little point laying a 2/1 shot when you fancy a 7/1 shot in the same race.

Only one horse appeals to me tonight at Kempton...

7.40 Kempton Noor Zabeel 6 €5.00 €25.00 and at SP
Noor Zabeel €5.00

Two year old conditions stakes with little to none all weather from in the race so on the face of it it's not really a race to get overly involved in, however 6.0 is a decent price in a race where only 6 are due to race.

Noor Zabeel is rated 91 here which puts him ahead of the rest except for Compton who is rated 92, now one can't get carried away with the OR of two year olds but it's still encouraging to a degree.

Noor Zabeel has had three runs to date all on turf, my reasoning is based on the two most recent ones, the debut run I won't be commenting on at all. Noor Zabeel won his 2nd start which was over 6f.........

12May11 Yor 6Gd C32yMd 7K 9-3 1/11 (2L Apostle 9-3) 7/2F Ryan Moore

The RacingPost comments are as follows.......
"Made all, ridden and stayed on well inside final furlong (op 10-3)"
A decent performance, stayed on well and won by 2l at 7/2 fav so the market support was justified. Regarding tonight's 7f trip it is encouraging that Noor Zabeel stayed on so well over the 6f.

lto Noor Zabeel chanced the mile trip........
03Sep11 Hay 8GF C12yL 12K 9-0 6/7 (7½L Caledonian Spring 9-0) 16/1 Jamie Spencer 91

Beaten 7 1/2l at 16/1, at a glance that's not too good but the devil is in the detail,
- it was a class 1 2yo listed race
- Noor Zabeel didn't actually run badly at all
"Held up in rear, headway over 3f out, weakened over 1f out (op 11-1)"
looks like the trip was too long, perhaps connections thought the mile was viable and now are reckoning 7f will suit better.
- and of course the class of opposition was quite good in that 8f race..the winner was rated 87.......
Caledonian Spring (IRE) 100/30 2 9-0 Paul D'Arcy 97


Breeding wise there's nothing beyond a mile in the immediate pedigree, there is the AW debut concern but none of the opposition have had a race on the AW either so I'm happy to have the bet at the generous odds.

Trip and ground are the most important factors to a horse in my view, none of them are tried on the surface and the trip I reckon is ideal so the 6.0 is more than big enough.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Only one horse appeals to me tonight at Kempton...

7.40 Kempton Noor Zabeel 6 €5.00 €25.00 and at SP
Noor Zabeel €5.00.........

Well beaten, finished 2nd, winner was 9/1 SP and 13.0 Betfair SP, wouldn't have backed it in a fit to be honest, kicked very well on the surface though in fairness to it.

I'd be tempted to back Noor Zabeel again over 7f either here or at Lingfield in a suitable race.

-€10 today

6.40 k moonscare and press office both layed, 10 at 3.05 and 2.86 respectively, 8f and aw debut for both.

7.10 Kempton Sally Friday
Ref: xxxxxxxx
1.6 €7.00 €11.20
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'.

Maybe layed

This one is proven on the surface and sort of over the trip, however in a maiden 12f race with 11 runners odds as short as 1.7 ish are rarely value. But the weight of money is to be considered. I reckon this one will go shorter in running so I've placed a lay for in running
Might well be matched before the off really as they are lashing on the cash.

7.40 Kempton Sea The Flames 7.4 €5.00 layed and then backed........
Sea The Flames 7.6 €7.50

Was looking at this one last night thinking that on the turf form it did have a decent enough chance, I had it pencilled in for a lay as I thought 'twould be 3/1 or 7/2 ish. At this price however I couldn't dream of laying it despite the AW debut factor. So I've a tiny back bet on it, those who believe in the gambling Gods are no doubt thinking we are due a fav winning here and Katies Tuitor may well sail in, too short to back though but I wouldn't fancy laying Katies Tuitor either.

I reckoned Sea The Flames would go off bigger than the 7.4 so layed it at that and bided my time to back at the larger price, little victories are always welcome

Although 'tis getting bigger pricewise :mad: :pac: