Horses......... lots of lays

8.10 Kempton Spring Of Fame 3.2 €10.00 backed

Tasty looking yoke here me thinks, 3 from 6 on the AW

- a 7f Lingfiled maiden
- a 9f class 4 Wolverhampton Class4 HC
- a 10f Meydan HC

The 8f trip here should suit well, Spring of Flame has won on turf over the miles, including a Newmarket race. There is little doubt the long straight here should suit and all going well Spring of Flame shouldn't be stopping approaching it.

On an AW spin at Meydan over the 10f trip Spring off Flame finished 3rd running on one paced for the last furlong and a half, in this race I feel both the trip and surface are suitable.

On the ratings Spring of Flame is 112, the fav, Western Aristocrat is rated 107 and carries 5lbs less (3 year old). However Western Aristocrat is making his AW debut tonight, I don't like backing them against horses proven on the surface.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

8.10 Kempton Spring Of Fame 3.2 €10.00 backed

.........

More on, price very juicy now........
Spring Of Fame 3.85 €5.00

8.40 Kempton Choral 9.8 €10.00 backed

This gambling lark can be tiring, I spent a good while looking at this Kempton card last night before heading to the land of nod.

Anyway, this is a 0 to 75 class 5 HC for 3 yo, obviously I fancy the one I have backed, here's why...

- trip wise Choral has performed well over the 8f trip on both turf and the AW, the best of it's 3 pre ORing runs was here at Kempton..

23Aug10 Kem 8St C52yMd 3K 8-11 2/11 (hd Wafeira 9-0) 16/1 Patrick Hills

also a two very decent runs on turf in maiden company on both good and soft ground...

21Oct10 Bri 8Gd C52yMd 3K 8-12 2/9 (1¾L Maywood 9-3) 9/2 Ryan Moore 73 * *
04Oct10 Wdr 8Sft C42yMd 3K 8-12 2/10 (¾L Buxfizz 9-3) 11/4F Richard Hughes 74

- Choral commenced it's rated life off a mark of 79, since it's 3rd run it hasn't seen an 8f AW race, it is now nicely positioned off 73 in this 0 to 75.

- lto in a Lingfield 0 to 85 7f handicap Choral put in a great effort finished a length and a half 3rd behind horses rated 74 and 80 off 73, nothing wrong with that if you reckon the 7f trip is a tad short for this one, Choral was staying on well at the end and I think the extra furlong here will be the making of him.

Not without rivals though in fairness.

Dare to Bare was the horse I reckoned was the danger to Kyllachy Spirit last Saturday here over 10f, Dare to Bare looked cooked then after 6f but stayed on well to pressure Kyllachy Spirit to the line, 8f is too short for Dare to Bare I think. If it wins it's some horse as I reckon 10f is ideal for it.

The generously priced Ebony Song is the main danger to Choral in my book, needs 8f too, AW suits but it is Ebony Songs AW handicap debut so anything could happen, still a €4 place bet is in order so that's on.

Should have waited it out on the rail me thinks, tut tut.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.40 k moonscare and press office both layed, 10 at 3.05 and 2.86 respectively, 8f and aw debut for both.

Both placed, neither won.

RoverJames wrote: »

7.10 Kempton Sally Friday
Ref: xxxxxxxx
1.6 €7.00 €11.20
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'.

Maybe layed ..........

Matched in running, well beaten.

RoverJames wrote: »

7.40 Kempton Sea The Flames 7.4 €5.00 layed and then backed........
Sea The Flames 7.6 €7.50............

Nope

RoverJames wrote: »

8.10 Kempton Spring Of Fame 3.2 €10.00 backed...............

RoverJames wrote: »

More on, price very juicy now........
Spring Of Fame 3.85 €5.00

Ran a ****ter and faded badly.

RoverJames wrote: »

8.40 Kempton Choral 9.8 €10.00 backed

...................
Dare to Bare............... If it wins it's some horse as I reckon 10f is ideal for it.

The generously priced Ebony Song is the main danger to Choral in my book, ..........still a €4 place bet is in order so that's on.

Dare to Bare wins, Choral 3rd, running on like feck after coming from to rail to the middle of the course, Ebony Song unplaced.

-€5.82 today

A nice evening of racing though in fairness.

4.45 Lingfield Record Breaker €5 at 15.0

Beaten 20l lto at Southwell but stayed on well relative to the rest in a 0 to 75 off 70, down 3lbs for that effort so I'm very interested in this one at the price.

5.40 at ayr William haigh 10 at 13.0, I backed this one lto on the aw, I think this trip on this soft ground will be ideal and the mark is reasonable too, I'm expecting a very decent run.

6.20 Wolverhampton Be A Devil 6.8 €10.00 backed

Down in class and taking a drop in the ratings too due to less than impressive performances, however 7f here was it's only previous victory and off topweight has to be feared.

6.50 Wolverhampton Nicholas Pocock 10.5 €10.00

This lad has potential here over the trip but needs a bit of luck, much of it's CD form is quite impressive...


03Sep11 Wol 9St C6Hc 1K 9-3 5/12 (2L So Wise 9-2) 16/1 Paul Pickard 60
lto wasn't fantastic in fairness, might have been held up a bit too much though.

10Aug11 Wol 9St C6Sl 1K 9-7 2/8 (1½L Empress Leizu 9-2) 3/1 Silvestre De Sousa 60
Not great form on the face of it when the winner was rated 52, but the fav, rated 72 and 6/4 was nearly 3l behind Nicholas Pocock carrying just a pound more (rated 72 against 60) and also Nicholas Pocock didn't have a clear run home.

03Jan11 Wol 9St/Slw C5Hc 1K 8-7 4/6 (6½L Kidlat 9-0) 7/2 Dean Heslop 61 * *
shd to the 3rd placed horse, winner and 2nd though lenghts ahead were running off 73 and 75.

13Dec10 Wol 9St C5Hc 2K 8-8 2/7 (hd The Winged Assasin 8-12) 7/2 Shane B Kelly 60 * *
This was good, winged assassin rated 67 and carrying only 4lbs more.

09Dec10 Wol 9St/Slw C5Hc 2K 8-8 3/7 (6¼L Mighty Clarets 8-6) eb1 100/30 James Sullivan 60
Held up too much again.

Well worth it at the price I think.

6.50 Wolverhampton Duquesa 4.5 €5.00 layed

Same race so potential double whammy of pain :pac:

Wolverhampton debut, only once tried a trip this long, that was a turf 10f race where he finished 2l 4th, respectable effort but I don't think the price is accurate to it's chances, there is some shrinkage due to KF being in the saddle, fair play if he gets this one home in front but I'm happy to lay at this price.

7.20 Wolverhampton Beneath 13.5 €5.00 and at SP
Beneath €5.00

This one has to be overpriced, CD winner and has tumbled down to a mark of 61 since a run here 12 months ago in a 0 to 75 where he finished four and a half lengths 8th of eleven. No spin here at Woly since but there was a 12f Lingfield excursion where the trip was too long.

Some respectable efforts of late on turf......

01Aug11 Crl 11Gd C6Hc 1K 10-5 2/14 (hd Daytime Dreamer 10-1) b 7/2 Amy Ryan 5
"Held up in touch, came stands' side over 4f out, led over 2f out, driven along final furlong, rider took things easy close home, headed post (op 5-1)"

and at Chester
08Jul11 Chs 12Gd C5Hc 4K 8-8 5/7 (3¼L Bradbury 8-4) b 11/2 Julie Burke 60
"Tracked leader, stumbled bend after 4f, upsides 6f out, challenged strongly over 1f out, weakened closing stages (tchd 7-1)"

The trip here is potentially this yokes ideal trip and the surface does suit.

7.20 Wolverhampton Monster Munchie 1.44 €15.00 layed tbp

Not enough form to make the conclusion that this one is a banker to be placed here, AW CD form but this is the AW HC debut, two runs on turf in HCs that were apparently over trips too long. Betting suggests the return to here should do the trick but at the price I'm not convinced.

7.50 W'ton Little Jazz 11 €5 and €10 at SP

Two things suit
- trip
- surface

The price is a tad large I think, little Jazz won a 0 to 70 12 HC on turf off 65 and has also won here at W'ton over a shorter 9f trip.

This race shouldn't take much winning either, fingers crossed things drop right.

8.20 W'ton Golden Slipper 1.47 €10.00 layed tbp

I can see nothing in the form to justify this short a price on AW debut, been placed once from four starts so far.

same again Double Trouble 1.53 €50.00 layed tbp

Eire-Dearg

RoverJames wrote: »

8.20 W'ton Golden Slipper 1.47 €10.00 layed tbp

I can see nothing in the form to justify this short a price on AW debut, been placed once from four starts so far.

Followed you on this one, great call.

Eire-Dearg

Eire-Dearg wrote: »

Followed you on this one, great call.

My logic fell down shortly after though :pac:
Nice that you followed the one that lined the pocket though

Eire-Dearg

RoverJames wrote: »

My logic fell down shortly after though :pac:
Nice that you followed the one that lined the pocket though

Didn't see the second one anyway

8.50 W'ton Ellies Image 1.87 €20.00 layed tbp

Three AW spins so far, all three here at W'ton, they read as follows..

30Mar11 Wol 7St C5Hc 1K 9-0 6/7 (13½L Polemica 8-8) 12/1 Graham Gibbons 63

11Sep09 Wol 9St C52yMd 2K 8-12 10/10 (51L Sejanus 9-3) 100/1 J-P Guillambert 50 * *

29Jun09 Wol 7St C52yMd 3K 8-12 8/10 (19L Coloursoftheglen 9-3) 50/1 Royston Ffrench —

If that ole saying horses for courses has any substance this one shouldn't be placed Cathy Gannon has been on one or two of the yokes I have backed tonight though that didn't go in.

Using my horses for courses strategy
8.50 W'ton Global Village 4.8 €20.00

Two 7f W'ton runs to date........
23Apr10 Wol 7St C5Hc 2K 9-1 1/10 (1¼L Copperwood 8-9) 7/4F William Carson 75 * *

22Feb10 Wol 7St C5Hc 2K 8-13 1/11 (hd Harare 8-4) 9/1 Saleem Golam 65

HAs taken a tumble in the ratings since that last win here, after 6 Kempton ventures. Down to 64 now in this 0 to 65, great chance that the return to here will relight the winning flame I think.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

8.20 W'ton Golden Slipper 1.47 €10.00 layed tbp

I can see nothing in the form to justify this short a price on AW debut, been placed once from four starts so far.

Just noted that stake is wrong, should be closer to €50, was matched in two bits, I'll include a screenshot from Betfair to confirm after the 8.50

Eire-Dearg

Legend. I actually layed Global Village before I saw your reasoning to lay Ellie and back Village, so I layed Ellie as well. Funny how it works out and neither place.

Eire-Dearg

Eire-Dearg wrote: »

Legend. I actually layed Global Village before I saw your reasoning to lay Ellie and back Village, so I layed Ellie as well. Funny how it works out and neither place.

Nice one , I had hoped the return to W'ton would suit Global Village, I rate Lingfield from as much the same as Kempton form but S'well and W'ton I only look at horses form at the particular course. I wouldn't have the balls to lay Global Village at W'ton off that mark, well played sir :cool:

RoverJames wrote: »

Just noted that stake is wrong, should be closer to €50, was matched in two bits, I'll include a screenshot from Betfair to confirm after the 8.50

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.45 Lingfield Record Breaker €5 at 15.0

..........

2nd but never threatened to win unfortunately.

RoverJames wrote: »

5.40 at ayr William haigh 10 at 13.0........

Ran a sh1tter, I was gutted tbh as I've been waiting over a week for this race

RoverJames wrote: »

6.20 Wolverhampton Be A Devil 6.8 €10.00 backed

..........

No good

RoverJames wrote: »

6.50 Wolverhampton Nicholas Pocock 10.5 €10.00

................

mmm

RoverJames wrote: »

6.50 Wolverhampton Duquesa 4.5 €5.00 layed

............

Well beaten

RoverJames wrote: »

7.20 Wolverhampton Beneath 13.5 €5.00 and at SP
Beneath €5.00.........

Well beaten

RoverJames wrote: »

7.20 Wolverhampton Monster Munchie 1.44 €15.00 layed tbp
.........Betting suggests the return to here should do the trick but at the price I'm not convinced.

Won, the bastad :pac:

RoverJames wrote: »

7.50 W'ton Little Jazz 11 €5 and €10 at SP

............

No good

RoverJames wrote: »

8.20 W'ton Golden Slipper 1.47 €10.00 layed tbp

.....

Not placed

RoverJames wrote: »

same again Double Trouble 1.53 €50.00 layed tbp

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

8.50 W'ton Ellies Image 1.87 €20.00 layed tbp.........

not placed

RoverJames wrote: »

Using my horses for courses strategy
8.50 W'ton Global Village 4.8 €20.00..........

No good


-€41.24 today

The lays are keeping the head above water at the moment, and I'm due to back a winner so fingers crossed

1.25 Newbury Firestarter 2.14 €5.00 & Mighty Ambition 2.16 €5.00
Both layed tbp

Racecourse debut for Mighty Ambition so at the price it's a lay for me, Firestarter has debatable credentials, two huge priced horses finished ahead of Firestarter lto, I couldn't make an argument for backing Firestarter tbp in this so it's another lay for me. Nothing profound in that logic so it doesn't make great reading.

1.40 Ayr Montaser 4.2 €5.00 layed to win
Montaser won a class5 race over the mile on GF by a neck, this is on soft ground at best, he'd be a decent yoke to be that versatile ground wise. Lay for me.

In saying that the place price is value at 1.79, Risky Art is 1.62 tbp
Montaser 1.79 €5.00 tbp backed

2.05 Catterick Indego Blues 2.48 €5.00 layed to win
3rd attempt over the trip in maiden company, far too short on what it's done so far.

2.30 Newbury Caspar Netscher 3.45 €5.00 layed to win

Home and hosed on the ratings but I reckon the victory lto wasn't up to much which puts Casper Netscher on a false rating and at a false price, lay for me. Trip suits, ground ok not being firm but I have my doubts.

2.45 Ayr Miss Work Of Art 3.55 €20.00 BACKED

Ground ideal, ratings bode well, I think the 6f is within range

3.10 Catterick Repeater 1.54 €20.00 layed tbp

Wouldn't be at all sure about this one running a decent race here, more or less topweight in this but the mark of 78 proved enough last time out, that was over a further longer but the writing was on the wall before the 1f post. At the price I wouldn't advise backing it tbp.