Horses......... lots of lays

3.45 Newbury Deacon Blues 2.58 €60.00 layed to win

I cannot see Deacon Blues taking a Class 1 Group 3 5f race when giving a few pounds to the other horses. It's style of being helf up and then coming to win it's race in the last two furlongs over the longer 6f trip is great but I can't see it working today over 5f.

Deacon Blues 1.3 €30.00 layed tbp too, only a bit though, has only been unplaced 3 from 14 runs, due another

4.30 ayr, vesuve 25 at 4.9 won this last year and has perfect ground to suit today, poet is priced on its 2nd to workforce imo, which is fair enough but no one saw that coming.

7.50 W'ton Beautiful Lando 1.76 €20.00 layed tbp bit skimpy in this very competitive HC

8.20 W'ton Haymarket 1.43 €50.00 layed tbp
Shaped as though 7f was a stretch on turf debut, no reason to think 8f on the AW will be any more suitable although there is stamina in the pedigree, not enough to justify the price though in this.

8.50 W'ton My Mate Jake 12 €15.00 backed

Has been in woeful form since a maiden win over CD in April, since than though 9f at W'ton hasn't been tried and also the rating has slipped 7lbs. The April maiden victory is at least on par if not better form than the fav's, Iron Green lto's 2nd over CD in a maiden. Iron Green makes the HC debut off 65, My Mate Jack runs off 64. The CD form and the ratings are similar but Iron Green's price is 5 times as big now, bit of value I think.

Small place bet too as a stake saver My Mate Jake 3.89 €6.00 tbp

Wasn't too bad a run, no luck up the home straight, wall of horses ahead of him, Callan should have stayed where he was on the outside me thinks.

9.20 W'ton Turjuman 19 €5 and at SP €5



All 5 of this one's wins have come over this thrip, three of them on the AW at Kempton, W'ton is a different kettle of fish a very different kettle of fish but lto here I reckon Turjamon was held up a bit too much. At the price it's value given the mark and the trip and lto showing that W'ton may be a suitable surface.

Again a small place wager, Turjuman 4.8 €4.00 tbp

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

..........

Combining them both results in €425 wagered and a return of €457.50 at SP which does keep the feet on the ground. ........

That was another €200 gone, without any return I may add
€625 wagered, €457.50 return at SP.

-€179.88 today, I can't be arsed going through them, 'twould only be a list of lost, beaten, well beaten, very well beaten or won where I layed a horse.

Bulk of it went on Deacon Blue, decent horse in fairness though.

Not a whole pile today, the racing is muck, lots of good stuff on the telly (AI final and Utd v Chelsea) and I want to do an hour or so in the gym too, few selections though in saying all that...

2.45 Fairyhouse Cabin 2.18 €17 layed
Usual story with me laying yokes, price seems very skimpy for this one, lots of reasons to justify that though
- ground is yielding, it will be that at best I'd say, Cabin put in a decent debut performance, 2nd by 2 1/2 lengths at the Curragh to Was over a mile, that was on good ground though.
- she kept on one paced the final furlong though, giving the impression that the trip wasn't ideal, I reckon she needs longer, the breeding would suggest 10/11f is the longterm plans.
- on the debut run as well as being beaten 2 1/2l by the winner after leading 3f out the 3rd, 4th & 5th finished a nk, nk & 1/2l behind her, looks to me to be a very average 2nd.
- we have lots of runners in opposition today, 20 ish I think, some of which have form on yielding, Belrath hope for one.

Too many question marks so a lay for me, also with her being untested on the ground I'm tempted to lay the place too, no surprise that is to regular readers :pac:

Cabin 1.32 €11.42 layed tbp

I can't see C O'Donoghue giving her too much whip on the run in if she doesn't appreciate the ground and there is a rush for the places, may well be wrong on that though.

3 NH selections today, the NH is hugely different to the flat as we all know, very poor form on the face of it may not be that bad and can often be completely ignored, a 50l beating over an inadequate or too stamina testing trip is simply to be binned in my book. Course and distance form I place huge value in.

3.30 Plumpton
Herschel €5.00 at SP backed, currently 8.6, can't see the price shrinking too much really.

This is a 0 to 125 16f HC hurdle on GF, Herschel goes off a mark of 110.
Herschel won this last year off 111 on the today's ground of GF...
1 Herschel (IRE) 8/1 4 11-0 Gary Moore 111 * * »
Jamie Moore

Made all, kicked on from 3 out, stayed on well from next (op 15-2

6 runs since, 3 of which were on the flat so I won't even look at them, the other 3 were not good really, the most recent NH spin wasn't too bad for some of the race but it was over 19f which is a stretch for this one.

All three of Hershel's NH wins have come at sharp tracks on GF.

There is no reason to oppose Hershel at this price (or anything close to it, should be 4/1 in my book)

UrbanSea

Nice call on Haymarket

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

Nice call on Haymarket

Cheers , that's the race where I was going to back your lay but your log put me off it

Was a rare piece of correctness yesterday

UrbanSea

Ah don't worry there'll be more.

5.00 Plumpton Take A Mile 7.2 €5.00 backed

A chaser back hurdling is rarely a wise bet but this one stays well, is handicapped well on recent chase form, goes best on GF and likes it around here.

4.20 Uttoxeter Consulate 11 €5.00 backed and at SP Consulate €5.00, the most overpriced of my 3 fancies today so the most wonga goes on this one

20 1/2f 0 to 115 HC hurdle on GF

Consulate goes off a mark of 110 and simply really goes well around here, two runs at Uttoxeter to date....


26Jun11 Utt 21Gd C4HcH 2K 11-3 2/16 (8L Hypnotic Gaze 11-3) 9/1 Mr D Edwards 113 * *


29May11 Utt 21GF C4HcH 2K 11-5 1/8 (2¼L Cash Back 10-13) 7/2F Mr D Edwards 105

After a win off 105 over this trip in a 0 to 105 Consulate found one too good next time out raised 8lbs, however Consulate was held up and clattered the last when chasing the winner, a bit of luck over the hurdles today and the price will look looney big






So much for the gym, fecking messing about on internet for an hour instead :pac:

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

............

2.45 Fairyhouse Cabin 2.18 €17 layed..........
Cabin 1.32 €11.42 layed tbp.........

Unplaced, died in the final furlong.

RoverJames wrote: »

...........
3.30 Plumpton
Herschel €5.00 at SP backed...........

Unplaced, wasn't up to it at all

RoverJames wrote: »

5.00 Plumpton Take A Mile 7.2 €5.00 backed.............

Unplaced

RoverJames wrote: »

4.20 Uttoxeter Consulate 11 €5.00 backed and at SP Consulate €5.00............

Looked ok ish for while, unplaced too

+€7.03 today

I won't be seeing any of tomorrow's racing but some tasty bets if things pan out as I expect...

2.30 Kempton Jack Of Diamonds €20.00 layed to be placed, €20 liability

A 7f Class 5 2yp maiden, Jack of Diamonds comes here after making the debut at Kempton over the longer 8f trip on 24th August, went off at 66/1 that day and didn't do anything fantastic, finishing 4th of 14 but 7l behind the winner, it was in the final furlong that it made most progress. I think the shorter trip tomorrow will not help it's chances and that the course experience will ensure it goes off at 6/8 to 1 ish with a place price of between 2.0 and 2.5 on Betfair.

5.00 Kempton Daneside €20.00, layed tbp, €20 liability.

3yo+ 0 to 85 HC over 8f

The trip no doubt suits this one, 9 starts of his 12 have been over the mile trip, resulting in a 2 wins and 3 seconds. One of those was on the AW at Lingfield, where the horse didn't seem to relish the surface, admittedly that was only it's third start but it was it's worst ever performance.

Daneside comes here after winning lto, a 0 to 80 HC off 66, raised 6lbs and with decent course experience in opposition I don't fancy his chances.

6 of his 10 opponents have won here at Kempton, 3 of the remaining 4 have been placed here and the last, Blue Moon has never run here but has won 3 times on the AW at Lingfield.

I expect the place price to be no bigger than 2.5 once again, it may well be a lot shorter and I see that as being looney given the lack of course form amongst this lot, the HC situation is less than tempting too.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

...............

2.30 Kempton Jack Of Diamonds €20.00 layed to be placed, €20 liability..............

Went off at 6/1 but came 3rd
They lay bet was matched at 2.89 SP which is a tad fat really.

RoverJames wrote: »

5.00 Kempton Daneside €20.00, layed tbp, €20 liability................

Got the price of this one all wrong, went off at 9/1 but finished 10th of the 11 runners so I'm pleased with that
They lay bet was matched at 3.52 SP which is fair enough considering it went off at 9/1.

More loss overall though -€12.47 today

2.10 Newton Abbot Dream Function €20.00 layed for €20 liability at SP, 5/2 ish I reckon.

19f Novice Hurdle on good ground, 14 runners, Dream Function was last seen in February contesting a 22 furlong race on soft ground, had previous decent form on GS and soft, untried at 19f and among the likes of American Lady and Yermani Princess I wouldn't be making this one fav, not backing it.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.10 Newton Abbot Dream Function €20.00 layed for €20 liability at SP, 5/2 ish I reckon.........

Won, feck sake

6.50 Kempton 10f 0 to 60 HC

Should be between 3, 5 & 6, I reckon 5 might come out on top because as well as the handicap rating and the surface being suitable I reckon the trip is potentially ideal.

9, 10 and 11 have trip and surface to suit but their handicap marks should anchor them.

2,4,7 and 12 I reckon have no chance, question marks over 8.

So........
Rowan Ridge 5.3 €10.00 backed

Tamara Bay 3.3 €10.00 layed tbp



Apologies for the numeric references, time constraints.

Tenessee 6.8 €7.00 bacjed to win

Futurism 8 €4.00 backed to bp

Point Du Jour 3.1 €10.00 layed tbp

no bla bla bla, comp crashed.

This bastad computer and google chrome are wrecking my fecking head :mad:
HAd a lovely bla bla typed up there :rolleyes:

Anyway moving on 7.50 Kempton 12f 0 to 70 HC

Quick run through the field may be best
- Convention, ish on all accounts really, can't see it taking this
- Viva Diva, trip would be too long in my book, all weather and handicap debut, short price too all considered, too many question marks
- Warneford, surface and trip are ok, mark is well reasonable I reckon, has to be of interest in this race
- Tegan, surface and trip perfect, up 10lbs since CD win but has to be of interest considering the question marks over the rest
- Tagansky, weirdly high HC rating, AW suits but impossible to fancy, bookies agree
- Waltzing Cat, AW suits, trip should suit but up 3lbs for a 2nd place, skimpy price, no for me
- Peira, trip, surface and rating all suit but it's a no on the April CD form
- Battery Power, despite AW suiting he'd want to be well charged to take this over a trip I reckon is too long and a mark that doesn't suggest he's anything in hand.
- Cyber Star, couldn't see this one being involved


so...........

Tegan 10 €10.00 backed to win

Waltzing Cat 3.05 €7.00 layed to win and tbp Waltzing Cat 1.47 €10

Viva Diva 2.36 €5.00 layed tbp

8.20 Kempton 7f 0 to 85 HC

I'm surprised at how this is priced up to be honest, I would give My Best Bet a reasonable chance but admittedly I reckon 'twould prefer a mile, in saying that 50.0 is miles too big for me so my first bit of business is

My Best Bet 50 €7.56 backed
and My Best Bet
Ref: xxxxxx
11 €20.00 €220.00
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'
Might get a run from it, little place bet too My Best Bet 10 €4.00


Sakhee's Pearl looks the most likely winner to me, ticks all the boxes for a 7f 0 to 85 around here..
Sakhees Pearl 4.9 €13.00 backed.

The fav Port Hollow, doesn't appeal, AW suits but the trip I wouldn't be sure is 100% ideal and it's the HC debut, little lay for me on both the win and place markets...
Port Hollow 4.4 €6.00 layed to win
Port Hollow 1.82 €6.00 layed tbp

Fingers crossed that all goes to plan :pac:

8.50 Kempton Micky P 5 €15.00 backed, the obvious one but I reckon there is a touch of value in the price, the three market leader, MickyP, Timesteam and Brandywell Boy are justifiable market leaders but MickyP should still be on the up and is likely to improve.

Decent effort on the AW at Lingfield off a few pounds higher in the Summer..

20Jul11 Lin 6St C5Hc 2K 9-0 7/11 (1½L Highland Harvest 9-4) tv1 4/1J William Carson 63

The other two, if the higher rated horses were taken out of their recent 7f AW performances would have both won (:pac:) but that isn't concrete form to justify the prices here compared to MickyP.

Catalina's Diamond has plumetted in the ratings and is unexposed on this surface with only one run so far on the AW, better to back this one tbp than to lay Timesteam and Brandywell Boy I reckon...

Catalinas Diamond 3.36 €10.00 backed tbp.

9.20 Kempton 0 to 65 6f HC

Trappy little race but interesting

The topweight, Here to Eternity has it to do on it's AW debut, better over 7f than 6f on the turf so it's a lay for me..
Here To Eternity 5.5 €7.00


The fav, The Name is Frank also has it's work cut out, on it's CD HC form it's handicapped very badly so another lay for me...
The Name Is Frank 4 €10.00

Obviously, barring a dead heat only one of them can win

Fivefold is the one I like, the trip is ideal, the AW suits and 'tis on a very viable HC mark, that's a bet for me especially when another I thought had a chance, Simple Rhythm isn't going, in fairness I thought that one had it to do at the weights but in a HC the HCer probably knows more than me :pac:
Still...
Fivefold 5.9 €10.00 backed to win
and tbp Fivefold 2.23 €7.00

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.50 Kempton ..........
Rowan Ridge 5.3 €10.00 backed

Tamara Bay 3.3 €10.00 layed tbp............

Rowan Ridge was 2nd at 9/2, Tamara Bay 5th at 7/1

RoverJames wrote: »

Tenessee 6.8 €7.00 bacjed to win

Futurism 8 €4.00 backed to bp

Point Du Jour 3.1 €10.00 layed tbp

no bla bla bla, comp crashed.

Tenessee 7th at 4/1

Futurism 8th at 25/1

Point Du Jour 11th at 8/1

RoverJames wrote: »

.................
- Battery Power, despite AW suiting he'd want to be well charged to take this over a trip I reckon is too long and a mark that doesn't suggest he's anything in hand.



so...........

Tegan 10 €10.00 backed to win

Waltzing Cat 3.05 €7.00 layed to win and tbp Waltzing Cat 1.47 €10

Viva Diva 2.36 €5.00 layed tbp

The one I threw the pun at won :pac:

Tegan last at 10/1
Waltzing Cat 4th at 15/8
Viva Diva 3rd at 5/1

RoverJames wrote: »

..........
My Best Bet 50 €7.56 backed
and My Best Bet
Ref: xxxxxx
11 €20.00 €220.00
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'
Might get a run from it, little place bet too My Best Bet 10 €4.00
............
Sakhees Pearl 4.9 €13.00 backed.

......
Port Hollow 4.4 €6.00 layed to win
Port Hollow 1.82 €6.00 layed tbp

My Best Bet 8th at 33/1, in running lay not matched
Sakhees Pearl 4th at 9/2
Port Hollow 2nd at 9/4

RoverJames wrote: »

8.50 Kempton Micky P 5 €15.00 ..............

Catalinas Diamond 3.36 €10.00 backed tbp.

Won at 11/4 fav and 3rd at 7/1 respectively At last :cool:

RoverJames wrote: »

9.20 Kempton 0 to 65....... a lay for me..
Here To Eternity 5.5 €7.00


............another lay for me...
The Name Is Frank 4 €10.00

Obviously, barring a dead heat only one of them can win

.............
Fivefold 5.9 €10.00 backed to win
and tbp Fivefold 2.23 €7.00

Here To Eternity last at 6/1
The Name Is Frank 2nd at 11/4
Fivefold 5th at 4/1

+€54.42 today, thank feck for that

Derek!

Lovely profit today James, good work

Thanks Derek
Sometimes the studying pays off