Horses......... lots of lays

9.00 W'ton

Little run through the card again while I have the time

Miss Ferney Aw debut, decent over 12f but longer would suit better I reckon, highest ever in the ratings so a tall order here despite being topweight
Alternative Choice Lots in this ones favour, trip, surface and current mark all are fine but recent course and distance form is very poor which is a huge concern for anyone tempted to put money on it.
Manshoor I like this one at the price, AW suits but untried at W'ton, Lingfield form doesn't transfer as well as one would expect really, trip is perfect and the current rating is very viable, Manshoor won a 0 to 80 off 76, this 0 to 60 could be an easy task if he handles the track, 'tis a while since this one sparkled on the AW though.
Green Lightning Looks to have it all going for it here, a perfect race on perfect terms for this one,
Dream of fortune Looks to have a decent chance at the weights, priced in proportion to that.
Shouda is proven on the AW and the 12f trip is potentially perfect which is a big plus however the increasing weight on this ones back is as a result of a turf win, I don't like that and the 2nd fav status on Betfair isn't quite fat enough for me.
Aureate I'd rate as dangerous with trip, surface and rating to suit, 7yo though which makes improvement not likely so has to be on top form to take this, at over 40/1 it's tempting though, last run here was less than inspiring though, beaten well by Green Lightning too.
Saloon Potential too with trip, surface and rating to suit
Priest Field AW debut, trip is ok for it, hard to know about the rating, the huge price is the main +, and that's not reason enough really.
Hammer no chance, hardly profound a view.
Prickles Surface and trip fine, has it to do at the weights though.


Soooooooooooooooooo

Green Lightning 3.8 €10.00 layed to win
Shouda 6 €10.00 layed to win

Saloon 11 €8.00 backed, with some luck in running could well go very close.

Miss Ferney 2.58 €10.00 layed to be placed

Balls

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

9.00 W'ton

........................
Green Lightning 3.8 €10.00 layed to win
Shouda 6 €10.00 layed to win

Saloon 11 €8.00 backed, with some luck in running could well go very close.

Miss Ferney 2.58 €10.00 layed to be placed

Shoud won, beating Saloon by 1/2 length
Green Lightning and Miss Ferney were 5th and 7th respectively.

-€38.49 for that effort today, bummer really, close to a nice return

6.00 Dundalk

Plenty of horses making their HC and AW debut here, laying is the way to go in this race I think...

Limetree Lady 1.43 €10.00 layed tbp
An Ghalanta 1.84 €7.00 layed tbp

Limetree Lady 2.56 €5.0 layed to win

7.15 W'ton Van Rooney 2.62 €5.00 layed to win

Three spins to date, lto over 7f at Dundalk, finished 3rd of 6, beaten 1 3/4l, that form doesn't justify the price here, it's mediocre at best really. There is enough in the form book for me to reckon this horse will be better at 9/10f ish than this 7f trip so I'm happy to lay it in the hope that one of the opposition is better suited to 7f at W'ton

7.30 Dundalk Lombrici €3.44 to lose €10.09 layed tbp

8f seems a stretch for this one, mark is less than forgiving too.

7.45 W'ton Farmers Dream 2.24 €5.00 layed tbp

Another who I reckon is stretched by the trip, despite the handicap mark being more viable than when previously tried here, still a few pounds off shouldn't make the final furlong any shorter. (hopefully :pac: )

8.00 Dundalk

Intriguing race, Liberty Rock beat Grainne Whale over CD by a neck, there was 4lbs between them that day, there's 5lbs today, so Grainne Whale is theoretically well entitled to turn the tables, personally I reckon Liberty Rock will beat Grainne Whale home again, dunno will Liberty Rock win though so won't be backing him.

Bangalore Diamond 2.52 €7.00 layed tbp

Two AW spins so far, neither impressive, best seen so far over 6f on turf so easy to oppose in the place market. I reckon the two above will be placed anyway so only one more needs to beat BD home.

8.15 W'ton Excellent Vision 2.26 €5.00 backed tbp

3lbs higher than when taking a CD 0 to 60, bunch finish but the 3lbs may not prevent another strong effort here.

8.30 Dundalk Benefit Of Porter 1.97 €10 layed to be placed

Fanciable on turf off this mark but not on AW debut in apprentice handicap, ideal laying opportunity.

8.45 W'ton Miss Exhibitionist 10.5 €10.00 backed to win and tbp Miss Exhibitionist 3.5 €11.00

Huge chance here, 2nd off 72 to a 10/11 fav rated 78 in a auction maiden stakes here, 6l clear of the rest. Not much course form in this race to rival that.

9.00 Dundalk Summer Glow 1.52 €9.0 layed tbp

Sole effort here didn't show a love for the surface, HCd here on basis of turb effort over longish trips, lots to prove.

9.25 Dundalk Ideal 3.7 €4.00 layed tbp

AW debut, only decent effort so far was in a Clonmel 10f maiden where 'twas fav, shouldn't get involved here at all.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.00 Dundalk

.............

Limetree Lady 1.43 €10.00 layed tbp
An Ghalanta 1.84 €7.00 layed tbp

Limetree Lady 2.56 €5.0 layed to win

4th and 5th respectively

RoverJames wrote: »

7.15 W'ton Van Rooney 2.62 €5.00 layed to win..........

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.30 Dundalk Lombrici €3.44 to lose €10.09 layed tbp..........

6th

RoverJames wrote: »

7.45 W'ton Farmers Dream 2.24 €5.00 layed tbp
........

11th

RoverJames wrote: »

8.00 Dundalk

...........

Bangalore Diamond 2.52 €7.00 layed tbp

..........

9th

RoverJames wrote: »

8.15 W'ton Excellent Vision 2.26 €5.00 backed tbp
..............

6th

RoverJames wrote: »

8.30 Dundalk Benefit Of Porter 1.97 €10 layed to be placed...........

6th

RoverJames wrote: »

8.45 W'ton Miss Exhibitionist 10.5 €10.00 backed to win and tbp Miss Exhibitionist 3.5 €11.00........

4th

RoverJames wrote: »

9.00 Dundalk Summer Glow 1.52 €9.0 layed tbp
..........

Wasn't placed anyway, finished well down the field

RoverJames wrote: »

9.25 Dundalk Ideal 3.7 €4.00 layed tbp

AW debut, only decent effort so far was in a Clonmel 10f maiden where 'twas fav, shouldn't get involved here at all.

Last


None of my three back bets were profitable
But from 10 lay bets all 10 lost (as in I won) So I'm happy enough.

+€36.22 today

3.45 Ripon Rios Rosanna 2.72 €7.00 layed to be placed

Beaten 4l over CD in a 0 to 85 lto off 76, a pound taken off for that effort, can't see a similar effort being good enough today. Place price is very skimpy.

3.55 Haydock Ardlui 2.06 €14.00 layed tbp
Untried over this 14f trip, flat form over shorter is not great off this mark, fancied, presumably on the novice hurdle form over 16f. Not the way I'd have it priced up, 2/1 tbp I'd want in this race.

4.10 Chester Mashaaref 3.85 €4.00 layed to win

I reckon this one is better over shorter than 10f trips, also has not tried a tight track like this before, also good to soft is another negative. All that aside it has it's work cut out off 86 in a 0 to 105, dunno how they've made this one fav.

4.30 Haydock Strident Force 2.66 €5.00 layed to win

Two efforts to date, both over 7f, first time out was in a class 3 on good to soft, finished 6 of 11 beaten by over 6 lengths, didn't pick up over the last furlong. That was not a bad debut especially if the ground didn't suit.

lto was in a class 5 on good, decent enough effort, finished 2nd to the 5/4 fav (11/8 itself), beaten by just over a length, worryingly though again, one paced final furlong.

Loads of opposition in this one and the ground is good to soft, very short price for a horse that doesn't seem to have a kick for home over the 7f trip tried today over a mile, when horses are upped in trip I like to see them staying on strongly over slightly shorter efforts.

7.20 W'ton good 0 to 70 HC that is quite interesting

Justbookiedotcom is relatively short priced fav, up 9lbs since a 4L CD win in a 0 to 65, in my book that makes this a tall order. Whatever improvement is likely for this 3yo can't really make the price appeal.

Glenriding is 6lbs higher than when winning a 0 to 70 CD race off 64, again alot to do with that hike.

The one that really interests me is Copporwood, has a CD 2nd off 72 in a 0 to 75 in the recent chapters of the formbook, goes well here in general, mad price

Justbookie Dot Com 3.8 €5.00 layed to win
Glenridding 5.2 €2.60 layed to win

Copperwood 16 €4.0 backed to win
Copperwood 4.5 €5.00 backed tbp

Khajaaly 3.15 €5.0 layed tbp
Good chance on recent CD show, overall though, can't fancy it.

7.50 W'ton

Yensi is the obvious choice and is being well supported, course winner, after attracting a decent lash of handicapper attention due to some decent turf efforts. I'll have to go against the consensus and lay this one as I wouldn't fancy backing it unless I was certain 'twas happy to hump the weight around, that hasn't been tested yet.

Yensi 3.35 €6.00 layed to win.


Keybreeze I think iis well suited to the trip around here, has carried the weight on turf without winning off this sort of mark but is 1 from 4 on the AW and that win was here over this trip, admittedly off 6 lbs lower.

Key Breeze 2.1 €8.00 to be placed backed.

8.20 W'ton a tad over 2m 0 to 65 HC

Ministry is untried here at W'ton, lto won a 0 to 60 at Kempton off 56, as a 3yo has a weight allowance, the rest of this field are all fairly exposed and so Ministry has a great chance, still, W'ton debut would be a concern, not enough of a concern to lay this one but definitely enough to not back it

Simple Jim has never ran well here at W'ton from 4 attempts, is better on turf and has been tried at trips beyond 2 1/2 miles over hurdes, doesn't have the profile of a W'ton winner to me

Simple Jim 5 €4.00 layed to win
Simple Jim 1.69 €15.0 layed tbp place price is looney short

8.50 W'ton 0 to 60, 9 1/2 ish f HC

Oh the fun :pac:

The fav, Painted Tail is making it's HC debut here, has a CS third to it's name in maiden company, hard to justify the price based on that though.

The topweight, Knowe Head is a worthy danger, won a o to 65 off 56 and was 4th off 57 in a CD 0 to 65 too.

But the horse that was 3rd that day off 57 is in this race too, still on 57 while Knowe Head is rated 62. 5lbs is 5lbs, admittedly Knowe Head as a 4 year old would be entitled to improve into that 5lbs, still, 'twas only 3 weeks ago and Dream of fortune won't have gotten any worse, although Dream of Fortune has been racing quite a bit over the summer so hard to see that not having an effect, also has been quite a while since a win, nearly a year now.

Valley Tiger, I reckon could run into a place, 5th of 9 beaten 6l here in a 0 to 65 off 64, down to 57 now, smells of value.

Sooooooooooooooooo

Dream Of Fortune 1.9 €14.00 layed tbp, I think the summer has taken it's toll, lto effort was done at the 2f pole over 10f.

Painted Tail 3.3 €5.00 layed to win, HC debutante, don't like them.

Valley Tiger 5.4 €6.00 backed to be placed, that's a very chunky place price.

9.20 W'ton 9 1/2 f 0 to 60 HC

Hill Tribe had a great run here lto...

1 7 Mrs Dee Bee (IRE) 6/4F 3 9-5 Charles Hills 74 * *
Robert Winston

Led 7f out, ridden over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, stayed on (op 9-4 tchd 11-4 in places)


« 2 8 1½ Indian Valley (USA) 8/1 4 9-6 b Hugo Palmer 70 * *
Luke Morris

Held up, headway 4f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on to go 2nd well inside final furlong, not reach winner (op 9-1)


« 3 4 ½ Hill Tribe 12/1 4 8-10 Richard Guest 60 * *
Kieren Fallon

Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong (op 9-1

placed 3rd behind some decent rivals on Thursday night.
This one goes well fresh though, I don't know how it will deal with a run tonight.
Hill Tribe 4.9 €7.00 layed to win


So is she looks decently treated off a mark of 56, had a bit of bad luck in running when contesting a selling stakes here back in December when fav, hampered inside final furlong when onepaced. I can't get away from this one off 56, potentially if things fell right, at the price, it's :eek:

So Is She 5.1 €6.00 backed tbp
So Is She 18 €4.00 backed to win


Indian Violet has had one run here, and it was bad, followed up with a good run at Lingfield, likes the turf too, I reckon Indian Violet doesn't like W'ton ..
Indian Violet 5 €7.00 layed to win
Indian Violet 1.94 €11.00 layed tbp

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.45 Ripon Rios Rosanna 2.72 €7.00 layed to be placed.........

Just scraped 4th so placed

RoverJames wrote: »

3.55 Haydock Ardlui 2.06 €14.00 layed tbp
...............

7th

RoverJames wrote: »

4.10 Chester Mashaaref 3.85 €4.00 layed to win..........

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

4.30 Haydock Strident Force 2.66 €5.00 layed to win...........

3rd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.20 W'ton good 0 to 70 HC that is quite interesting.............
Justbookie Dot Com 3.8 €5.00 layed to win
Glenridding 5.2 €2.60 layed to win

Copperwood 16 €4.0 backed to win
Copperwood 4.5 €5.00 backed tbp

Khajaaly 3.15 €5.0 layed tbp...........

Khajally won
so obviously Glenridding and Justbookiedotcom didn't Copperwood was 8th though

RoverJames wrote: »

7.50 W'ton...............

Yensi 3.35 €6.00 layed to win.


...................

Key Breeze 2.1 €8.00 to be placed backed.

Yensi 7th
KeyBreeze 2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

8.20 W'ton a ..................

Simple Jim 5 €4.00 layed to win
Simple Jim 1.69 €15.0 layed tbp place price is looney short

Simple Jim 4th

RoverJames wrote: »

8.50 W'ton 0 to 60, 9 1/2 ish f HC


Dream Of Fortune 1.9 €14.00 layed tbp............

Painted Tail 3.3 €5.00 layed to win, HC debutante, don't like them.

Valley Tiger 5.4 €6.00 backed to be placed, that's a very chunky place price.

This one did the damage, Painted Tail won Dream of fortune 2nd :mad: and Valley Tiger unplaced

RoverJames wrote: »

9.20 W'ton 9 1/2 f 0 to 60 HC

Hill Tribe had a great run here lto...................
Hill Tribe 4.9 €7.00 layed to win


................
So Is She 5.1 €6.00 backed tbp
So Is She 18 €4.00 backed to win


............
Indian Violet 5 €7.00 layed to win
Indian Violet 1.94 €11.00 layed tbp

Hill Tribe won
So is She 3rd
Indian Violet not placed

+ €9.10 today, I'll take that happily (no smiley, can only have 15 of them in a post apparently)

2.15 Musselburgh Stags Leap 1.78 €10.00 backed tbp

Hard not to be tempted by this one, combining the ratings and the weights for this selling stakes make it stand out. Decent recent form in Class 5 HCs over 12 and 13f before a less than great effort in a 13f Class4, this 12f is more to suit though. Of the three fancied I'd see this one as the safest bet tbp.

2.25 Clonmel Whatever It Takes 3.6 €4.00 layed to win

Two hurdle spins so far for this one, placed in one, 4th in the other, same story both days though.........

Tracked leaders, some slight mistakes, moderate 3rd approaching 2 out, soon moderate 4th and no impression under pressure, kept on same pace


Always prominent, struggling from 2 out, soon no impression under pressure, kept on same pace

Ground is the same today so all going to plan (mine) a similar run is expected.

2.45 Muss Serene Oasis 3.3 €12.00 backed to win

Better to back this one than lay Idler as I don't fancy the other two at all.

Idler has had two runs to date, one over 5f and the most recent over 6f, over 6f it didn't seem to finish the race that well, not sure the step up to 7f is the correct option.

Serene Oasis has been twice tried over 7f, once on the AW and lto on turf, finishing 2 3/4l third to the fav with the 2nd fav between them. Nothing wrong with that run which was on softer than today's good ground. The firmer underfoot conditions could well let this one set sail for home.

ffs :rolleyes:

3.00 Epsom Our Gal 3.25 €15.00 backed tbp

3 tbp on Betfair, 8f is ideal for this one and has HC place form recently in races as good as this if not better. Better perhaps as the fav here, Dubawi Sound, racing off 88 on HC debut has it to do, so too Sure Route who is up 6lbs for a neck win off 82 in a 0 to 85.

Dubawi Sound 1.35 €10.00
Sure Route 1.46 €9.99
Both layed tbp

3.35 Epsom Con Artist 2.4 €0.81 & 2.46 €8 layed tbp

I'm ignoring the last run, this lay is based on the current mark of 93 and how this one got to it, placed efforts over today's trip in weaker races.