Horses......... lots of lays

G87

decent profit today mate, picks lookin good keep it up

5.45 W'ton Nafa 4.1 €5.00 & Kinlochrannoch 4.2 €5.00 both layed tbp

Potentially expensive for me if they are both placed :pac:

Kinlochrannoch is making it's AW debut and has woeful turf form

Nafa is making W'ton debut and Kempton form is poor enough.

Neither should feature Fear Nothing, Star Twilight, Riflessione and Kassaab would be my fancies.

Kassaab in loonily overpriced I feel, 2nd off 61 in a 0 to 65 at Southwell, if repeating that effort it should go close.

Kassaab 7 €5.00 tbp
and Kassaab 28 €4.00 to win

5.50 GP Solidago 1.79 €5.00 layed tbp

Has had a run and it wasn't great.

6.00 Dundalk Jimtown 2.78 €5.00 layed tbp

AW debut, 8f form less than great.

6.15 W'ton Red Cape 3.35 €5.00 BACKED tbp

Course to suit, trip to suit and ath the ratings has a great chance.

6.30 Dundalk Floralys 1.75 €10.00 layed tbp

AW debut, 8f debut too, very short.

6.45 W'ton Storm Hawk 12.5 €10.00 backed to win & Storm Hawk 3.92 €5.00 tbp

Woeful lto here but a previous 2nd off 65 in a 0 to 65, has to have a chance greater than the price back in a 0 to 65, lots of the field have question marks over the trip at W'ton

8.45 W'ton Classically 2.04 €10.00 layed tbp

I'd fancy this one at Kempton or Lingfield, not here, horses for courses and all that.

9.00 Dundalk Zanughan 1.56 €10.00 layed tbp

AW debut and longer than 10f might be better I'd say.

9.25 Dundalk Sparring Partner 2.88 €6.00 layed tbp

Up in the ratings admittedly from a race here, don't think the draw will help the way the earlier races have gone.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.30 Ascot Well Sharp 2.7 €5.00 layed tbp

............

6th

RoverJames wrote: »

3.40 Gowran Park Bennys Quest 3.15 €7.00 layed tbp...........

finished 2nd but later disqualified as the rider failed to weigh in, only saw that now actually, pleasant surprise, it's made a big difference to the day's tally.

RoverJames wrote: »

3.50 Fontwell Zorro De La Vega 3.3 €5.00 played tbp..............

6th

RoverJames wrote: »

4.05 Ascot Buthelezi 2.64 €6.00 layed tbp

.........

6th (last)

RoverJames wrote: »

4.25 Fontwell Woolfall Treasure 1.94 €20.00 layed tbp

............

4th

RoverJames wrote: »

4.40 Ascot Spice Fair 2.98 €5.00 layed tbp

...........

3rd

RoverJames wrote: »

4.50 Hexham Kingsdale Orion 1.96 €5.00 layed tbp

........

4th

RoverJames wrote: »

5.00 Fontwell Ballagio 2.9 €5.00 layed tbp

..........

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

5.15 Ascot Oneladyowner 2.94 €5.00 BACKED tbp ........

8th

RoverJames wrote: »

5.20 GP Got Attitude 2.34 €6.00 layed tbp

.......

4th

RoverJames wrote: »

5.45 W'ton Nafa 4.1 €5.00 & Kinlochrannoch 4.2 €5.00 both layed tbp.....................
Kassaab 7 €5.00 tbp
and Kassaab 28 €4.00 to win

Kinlochrannoch was 2nd, other two unplaced

RoverJames wrote: »

5.50 GP Solidago 1.79 €5.00 layed tbp

.......

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

6.00 Dundalk Jimtown 2.78 €5.00 layed tbp

........

6th

RoverJames wrote: »

6.15 W'ton Red Cape 3.35 €5.00 BACKED tbp

Course to suit, trip to suit and ath the ratings has a great chance.

5th

RoverJames wrote: »

6.30 Dundalk Floralys 1.75 €10.00 layed tbp

AW debut, 8f debut too, very short.

5th

RoverJames wrote: »

6.45 W'ton Storm Hawk 12.5 €10.00 backed to win & Storm Hawk 3.92 €5.00 tbp............

5th

RoverJames wrote: »

8.45 W'ton Classically 2.04 €10.00 layed tbp

I'd fancy this one at Kempton or Lingfield, not here, horses for courses and all that.

9th

RoverJames wrote: »

9.00 Dundalk Zanughan 1.56 €10.00 layed tbp

AW debut and longer than 10f might be better I'd say.

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

9.25 Dundalk Sparring Partner 2.88 €6.00 layed tbp

Up in the ratings admittedly from a race here, don't think the draw will help the way the earlier races have gone.

4th or 5th

after all that +€6.89 today

G87 wrote: »

decent profit today mate, picks lookin good keep it up

Many thanks , the first half of the day was quite profitable, ended not too bad I suppose, nothing lost.

23 bets, 12 went favourably, 11 didn't


No lays or bets tomorrow folks, maybe the last 3 at W'ton depending on how tomorrow goes, doubt it though.

G87

profit is a profit

your doing very well even though your risking the horse getting placed..have you won more by doing this or just laying to win?

I am more profitable with the lay to place (paper trading) than to win (actual). My criteria for finding a horse to lay is much the same for both, generally if a horse has enough factors for me to lay it to win then the place lay is viable too. As I often get it wrong the slap is smaller with the place bet.

The win market on Betfair contains quite a bit of back friendly fat, I reckon the place market doesn't as you have more people backing the "sure thing" so it's more lay friendly.

Over the next two months I'm going to be mainly laying horses tbp, I'll be trying to eliminate back bets almost entirely, there will be the odd one of course.

Cheers for the encouragement

G87

sounds good, i'll be following

5.50 W'ton Gabriels Lad 2.86 €5.00 layed to win

6f at Lingfield lto on debut saw this one beaten 3l, didn't lead that time, don't think 5f is the solution.

5.55 Fontwell Reste Jeune 2.02 €5.00 layed tbp

Debut and 18f is a weird trip in my book, nice, short odds for the place.

6.20 W'ton Balm 1.72 €14.00 layed tbp

4th in the ratings, Lingfield or Kempton would be an easier task I reckon, beaten bt two mediocre yokes here lto over 6f, again the run suggested that a drop to 5f wasn't needed, I reckon a step up in trip may be more suitable.

6.50 W'ton Kingswinford 1.8 €13.00 layed tbp

Grand yoke on turf, unexposed on AW, only two runs to date, both here over 6f, extra furlong may well be to suit but at the price I'm happy to hope for 3 non places from 3 efforts here.

7.20 W'ton Flowing Cape 1.35 €27.00 layed tbp

Call me looney :pac:

This ones profile here at W'ton doesn't in my opinion warrant this price, the place price in comparion to the win price is also skinny.

Runs here at W'ton..

02Oct10 Wol 7St C5Cl 2K 9-2 4/10 (1¾L Samarinda 9-0) 7/4F Richard Hughes 85 * *

23Sep10 Wol 9St C3Hc 6K 9-3 7/13 (8L High Twelve 9-3) 20/1 Adam Kirby 87 * *

02Sep10 Wol 7St C3Hc 5K 9-6 5/7 (5¼L Malcheek 9-2) 11/4 David Probert 88

12Jul10 Wol 7St/Fs C3Hc 6K 9-5 3/10 (2L Prime Exhibit 9-4) 8/1 Jack Mitchell 88

27May10 Wol 9St C6Cl 2K 9-8 5/12 (1¾L Calahonda 9-4) 6/4F George Baker 88

26Feb10 Wol 6St C3Hc 6K 9-4 6/8 (2¾L Thebes 9-2) tp 8/1 Adam Kirby 90 * *

12Feb10 Wol 6St C2Hc 10K 8-6 8/9 (11½L Flipando 8-7) tp 8/1 Paul Pickard 91 * *

14Jan10 Wol 6St C3Hc 6K 8-11 2/9 (½L Tourist 8-8) t 7/1 Paul Pickard 90

28Dec09 Wol 6St C2Hc 11K 8-3 4/10 (¾L Imprimis Tagula 8-3) t 14/1 Paul Pickard 90

13Nov09 Wol 9St C2Hc 11K 9-2 7/12 (7¾L Stand Guard 8-2) 11/2 Jamie Spencer 95 * *


07Mar09 Wol 9St C2Hc 31K 9-5 5/13 (2¼L Flipando 9-3) 6/1 Graham Gibbons 95 * *

17Feb09 Wol 6St C2Hc 12K 8-11 1/11 (½L Methaaly 7-13) 7/2 Micky Fenton 90 * *

13Feb09 Wol 7St C3Hc 9K 8-13 1/7 (1½L Southandwest 9-4) 5/2F Micky Fenton 84


Not fantastic really, best recent form is over 6f on turf, can't fathom why 'tis so short here, win lay too..

Flowing Cape 3.2 €8.00

I'm off to make a sandwich and eat it before 7.20, I may have no appetite after this race :pac:

ffs he just got up after looking dead on the straight :rolleyes:

7.50 W'ton

After weakening twice in two CD runs here this one stayed on and won a 0 to 60 off 59 in commanding fashion, got 8lbs for that effort and was then successful over CD again in a 0 to 70, staying on well again. In between those runs was a poor enough turf effort and since the last run here Bertie Blu Boy has had 5 runs on turf without impressing.

Back here now though off 70 in this 0 to 75 and at the price is hard to ignore, grossly overpriced I feel.

Bertie Blu Boy 37.3 €5.00 backed to win

and an in running lay just to keep a few quid in the coffers if it gets matched..
Bertie Blu Boy
Ref: xxxxxxxxx
6 €20.00 €120.00
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'

Also a small saver on the place market...
Bertie Blu Boy 8.2 €6.00

And I'm laying this one tbp, AW debut and best turf form is on GS..
Bloodsweatandtears 2.26 €8.00

8.20 W'ton Istiqdaam 2.28 €17.0 layed tbp

I reckon this one is humping around a little too much weight and also 8f at is a stretch of stamina, couple them together and it's a major doubt that Istiqdaam will feature.

8.20 W'ton Mr Chocolate Drop 4.13 €10.00 backed tbp

this one loves it here and appreciates the trips over 7f, great chance to feature.

8.50 W'ton Like A Boy 2.2 €18.00 layed tbp

I have my doubts this one will run on for the full 10f to the required pace, didn't like Southwell or Kempton, seems to like GF on the basis of one effort, didn't like it so much twice before, has an overall nagish profile I think.

(they always romp home when I say something like that :pac:)

9.20 W'ton Pertemps Networks 2.74 €7.00 layed to win

Don't really like this ones chances, lto 2nd off 68 here over today's trip to a rival also rated 68, beaten a 1/2l, another 1/2 l back to the 3rd placed horse and 4th was 3/4l back. Not really breath taking form.

Before that, the last run here was a win in a 0 to 60 on off 58, that was preceded by a 7l beating here off 58 too by a horse rated 65.

Topweight off 69 Pertemps Network is not a 6/4 shot me thinks.

Little place lay too ....... Pertemps Networks 1.43 €6.48

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

5.50 W'ton Gabriels Lad 2.86 €5.00 layed to win...........

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

5.55 Fontwell Reste Jeune 2.02 €5.00 layed tbp......

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

6.20 W'ton Balm 1.72 €14.00 layed tbp

.........

Won

RoverJames wrote: »

6.50 W'ton Kingswinford 1.8 €13.00 layed tbp...........

3rd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.20 W'ton Flowing Cape 1.35 €27.00 layed tbp

.............win lay too..

Flowing Cape 3.2 €8.00

I'm off to make a sandwich and eat it before 7.20, I may have no appetite after this race :pac:

This is the one that did the damage, won by a head

RoverJames wrote: »

ffs he just got up after looking dead on the straight :rolleyes:

RoverJames wrote: »

7.50 W'ton

...............

Bertie Blu Boy 37.3 €5.00 backed to win

and an in running lay just to keep a few quid in the coffers if it gets matched..
Bertie Blu Boy
Ref: xxxxxxxxx
6 €20.00 €120.00
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'

Also a small saver on the place market...
Bertie Blu Boy 8.2 €6.00

And I'm laying this one tbp, AW debut and best turf form is on GS..
Bloodsweatandtears 2.26 €8.00

last and 5th respectively, in running lay not matched

RoverJames wrote: »

8.20 W'ton Istiqdaam 2.28 €17.0 layed tbp

...........

last

RoverJames wrote: »

8.20 W'ton Mr Chocolate Drop 4.13 €10.00 backed tbp

this one loves it here and appreciates the trips over 7f, great chance to feature.

3rd

RoverJames wrote: »

8.50 W'ton Like A Boy 2.2 €18.00 layed tbp

............
(they always romp home when I say something like that :pac:)

10th

RoverJames wrote: »

9.20 W'ton Pertemps Networks 2.74 €7.00 layed to win.............

Little place lay too ....... Pertemps Networks 1.43 €6.48

Won so so so easily.

-€9.89 yesterday

2.00 Tipp Canary Wharf 2.82 €9.99 layed tbp

Guts of 9f maiden on heavy, Canary Wharf has had two runs so far, both over 8f on good ground and was well beaten on both, I would be surprised if the sticky ground brought about improvement.

2.05 Kelso Toshi 3.25 €10.00

HC form has been poor of late, maybe due to getting on a bit.

2.15 Utt Grandads Horse 1.14 €20.00 layed tbp

7lbs worse off for lto 3l victory over 2nd fav, should be able to cope with that but you never know and it's not a two horse race, well worth the risk of €3.

2.25 Hun Bullet Man 1.76 €20.00 layed tbp

Won over CD two runs ago, wasn't so smart lto when hitting a hurdle or the run before the CD win when fading, 1 decent run from 3 doesn't make this one worthy of the price.