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Horses......... lots of lays
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RoverJames wrote: »3rd 4 week term, from Sun 14th Aug to Sat 10th September
Total P&L: -€13.82
And the current total which is from Sun 19th June to today....
Total P&L: €991.78
4th 4 week term concludes
From Sun 11th September to Sat 8th Oct
Total P&L: -€81.31
And the current total which is from Sun 19th June to today....
Total P&L: €910.47
There's €979.38 in the account, not much progress made in the last 8 weeks (the opposite really) but it could have been a lot worse.
Onwards and upwards
(fingers crossed)0 -
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Not much I fancy today and I haven't really the mind to delve into the NH stuff. I like the look of Moynahan in the 4.45 from Goodwood though.
Most of Moynahan's Goodwood form on a sound surface makes jolly enough reading, I'm not going to go back to day dot with this one though although the 7f 2nd to Axiom in 09 was a sign of things to come
Anyway, Moynahan won a CD 0 to 90 off 87 back in May 2010, interestingly that day the win was achieved with some in running misfortune which Moynahan dealt with and recovered from...
"Held up in touch towards rear, effort when badly hampered and lost place well over 1f out, switched left over 1f out, ridden and good headway on outer entering final furlong, ran on well to lead final 75yds"
'twould have you thinking that this Moynahan lad gets stuck in and does the job when needed.
A few months after that Moynahan tackled a 10f race here, coming 2nd off 89 in that 0 to 95, not shabby form.
More recently in May of this year Moynahan finished 3rd off 88 in a 9f 0 to 90 and then in July came 3l 4th off 84 in another 0 to 90. We'll ignore the last course run here on the penultimate start as it puts a big hole in things, in fairness Moynihan was eased when having no chance, such things happen in the game.
So, back to 8f in a 0 to 85 off near topweight on a good surface that shouldn't be cut up much if at all from the earlier races as it is quite decent, great chance I think.
Moynahan 3.88 €4.00 tbp as a small saver
Moynahan 10.5 €10.00 backed to win, chunky enough bet but I'm willing to take the chance that all is well with him and thinking of the CD performance 18 months ago off a mark of 87 where he pulled lots out of the sleeve when needed it may well be worth chancing this one.
Satwa Laird is another with great credentials but the overall profile of a 13lb drop in the ratings in 18 months puts me off, I hate trying to catch horses to win on the way down, price not juicy enough for me.0 -
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RoverJames wrote: »...............
And who better to oppose it with that a brilliant 3 year old who I feel is shaping as though good to soft or the artificial surfaces suit a tad more than firmer turf ground, ye read that here first folks :pac:
Dubawi Gold is best over the mile trip and I cannot resist backing it at this price, admittedly hasn't been wonderful of late but lto I feel the 7f was not adequate for Dubawi Gold to put it's best foot forward.
Saturday 15th Oct 3.35 Ascot Dubawi Gold 210 €2.31 backed to win
Beaten lto on very soft ground and who knows what it will be like this coming Saturday but if it's just on the easy side of good 209/1 is looney for Dubawi Gold, on the 27 Aug despite winning well in the end I reckoned that there was absolutely plenty in the locker, which is needed this coming Saturday but if the ground suits he'll be well capable of putting in a very decent run
I don't think there'll be any more 200 odd to 1 available between now and then though, more's the pity.0 -
7.40 Kempton Storming Bernard 5.73 €5.00 backed to win
I reckon there's a sniff of value about this one in this 8f Conditions Stakes. Over four times the price of the fav, only 3lbs between them on the ratings and I reckon the fav's rating of 98 is a tad OTT, also Storming Bernard is proven over the mile trip having won well on GS. Now Storming Bernard is not tried on the AW yet the fav, Graphic is. The price and the fashion in which it finished off the mile race compensates well for that.
As much as I blow on about turf form not transferring to the AW when there is a price like this knocking around I'm glad to be such a flexible chap
Drawn nicely too and I'd expect him to make the running and perhaps steal a length or two on the rest, Graphic likes to be held up but I don't think giving Storming Bernard too much of a lead would be a good tactic.0 -
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8.50 W'ton 0 to 60 7f HC
I think that this is a nice little race for my purposes I've found a nice bit of value and also a fav that I don't think has a great chance so I'm happy out, fingers crossed I'll be as happy after the race :pac:
Regarding the fav, Michaels Nook won on turf lto, a 0 to 60 over 7f off today's mark of 50, that was an apprentice race though, I don't really rate such races as actual concrete from Michaels Nook has had 3 spins on the AW, none here at W'ton but all were very poor so that's more reason to not fancy it's chances here tonight....
Michaels Nook 3.9 €4.00 layed to win
Michaels Nook 1.74 €4.00 layed tbp
And now for the value
Northern Flyer is topweight off 60 here, has nice course form over longer, winning a 0 to 70 9f contest off 63 after making all and staying on well to win quite cosily. Best effort since than was a close 2nd at Doncaster in a 0 to 70 off 56, lto here was not great but in handicap form off topweight Northern Flyer has I think a really really really decent chance.
Northern Flyer 2.9 €5.0 backed tbp
Northern Flyer 9 €9.00 backed to win0 -
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9.20 W'ton another 7f 0 to 60 HC
........... and more value :pac:
The favourite here, Jonnie Skull was beaten over CD by another of tonight's runners Pytheas, they are rated 60 and 59 respectively tonight, there was 5 lbs between them when Pytheas beat Jonnie Skull, Jonnie Skull didn't have a clear run home though but was still beaten a length and a half and I don't think the closer terms can justify the gulf in price between them, Jonnie Skull is available at 3.95 whereas Pytheas is a juicy 7.6 in comparison, over double the price.
Pytheas also has ran very well over 9f here at W'ton, the way things are at the moment with whip rules etc I think I like being on yokes that won't be running out of steam on the home straight, also Pytheas is speedy enough for 7f
Pytheas 7.6 €7.00 backed to win
and €5 tbp at SP, the current 2.4 available is a tad skimpy, won't be able to place any bets closer to the off so I'm happy to risk the place SP being better.0
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