Horses......... lots of lays

9.25 Dundalk

Priomhbhean 13 €3.95 backed to win, just about won this last year and is priced far too big this time round, only a 4 year old so could well be better now, hasn't had this trip on the AW since.

Priomhbhean 3 €5.00 backed tbp

9.20 Dundalk Rock Critic 4 €12.00 layed to win

Won a weak enough 10f HC at Leopardstown on yielding to soft, other than than form over 8f is poor enough, my fancy Priomhbhean beat Rock Critic by almost 6 lenghts in a 9f HC too, both off 89 but Prionhbhean had the 6lb 3yo thing going on, 5lbs less today in this race. I cannot see Rock Critic beating Priomhbhean in this, really shouldn't win and is horrendously short priced stepping up to this trip on the AW.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

8.50 W'ton 0 to 60 7f HC.............

Michaels Nook 3.9 €4.00 layed to win
Michaels Nook 1.74 €4.00 layed tbp

...................
Northern Flyer 2.9 €5.0 backed tbp
Northern Flyer 9 €9.00 backed to win

Michaels Nook won and Northern Flyer not placed

RoverJames wrote: »

9.20 W'ton another 7f 0 to 60 HC

........... .......................
Pytheas 7.6 €7.00 backed to win
and €5 tbp at SP, the current 2.4 available is a tad skimpy, won't be able to place any bets closer to the off so I'm happy to risk the place SP being better.

4th

RoverJames wrote: »

9.25 Dundalk

Priomhbhean 13 €3.95 backed to win, ...............

Priomhbhean 3 €5.00 backed tbp

unplaced

RoverJames wrote: »

9.20 Dundalk Rock Critic 4 €12.00 layed to win................

2nd, almost won

-€41.76 today and it could have been a lot worse.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Saturday 15th Oct 3.35 Ascot Dubawi Gold 210 €2.31 backed to win

Beaten lto on very soft ground and who knows what it will be like this coming Saturday but if it's just on the easy side of good 209/1 is looney for Dubawi Gold, on the 27 Aug despite winning well in the end I reckoned that there was absolutely plenty in the locker, which is needed this coming Saturday but if the ground suits he'll be well capable of putting in a very decent run

I don't think there'll be any more 200 odd to 1 available between now and then though, more's the pity.

10 at 11.0 layed, might be matched in running

5.15 Caterick Music Festival 2.94 €10.00 layed tbp
I think the ground is a tad soft for this one

5.25 W'ton Twisted 4 €4.00 layed to win

CD winner which I like but so too are another couple in the race, can't quite see the price as being decent enough not to lay.

5.30 Chel Clondaw Warrior 1.47 €10.00 layed tbp

Bit of a guessing game, price is horrible short though and represents no value.

5.40 Kelso Yorkshire Knight 5.9 €4.00 layed to win

Course winner ? Nope
Over the trip ? Nope
Ground suitable? Maybe not
Underpriced due to recent 2nd? Yep

5.45 DownPatrick Ironmill Lad 2.76 €10.00 layed to place

One of the popular e/w choices here, little value as a result

5.55 Cork Ansaab 1.33 €20.00 layed tbp
loads of runners and poor conditions for place price that short

6.30 W'ton Alternative Choice 3.1 €7.00 backed tbp and to win Alternative Choice 9.4 €10.0

Has won and been placed in similar races off similar marks here, due to go in again soon I reckon and the price is generous. A 0 to 60 is his limit really so nicely placed here hopefully.

8.00 W'ton Steady Gaze 2.22 €16.00 layed tbp

Kempton winner lto over the trip but W'ton form not good and got a lash of weight too.

8.30 W'ton Thoroughly Red 38 €6.0 backed to win & tbp Thoroughly Red 7.2 €12.00

No laughing :mad: :pac:

Ok, this one has had 4 runs over 8f...

28Sep11 Ncs 8Gd C5Hc 2K 9-7 7/14 (14L Captain Macarry 9-3) 22/1 Tony Hamilton 66

lto wasn't great, ground was good though

we have to go back three years for the other 3...

18Oct08 Cor 8Sft 3y 7K 9-5 1/18 (4L Andre Mon Ami 9-5) 5/1 F M Berry 84

28Aug08 Bel 8Gd/Y 3y 6K 9-5 2/8 (3L El Presidente 9-5) 4/7F N G McCullagh 84

09Nov07 Dun 8St 2y 7K 9-3 3/13 (½L Memphis City 9-3) 9/10F M J Kinane —

Placed in all 3 on soft, good to yielding and on the AW at Dundalk

Well worth a punt at the price I think.

....... Thoroughly Red
Ref: xxxxxxxxxx
6 €15.00 layed to win, one for in running maybe

9.00 W'ton Justcallmehandsome 8.8 €15.00 backed to win & tbp Justcallmehandsome 2.94 €6.00

9 yo now and blows hot and cold, it in form can go in here tonight.

The fav, Aussie blue has a patchy record off a mark like today's on the AW, 'tis a big ask I think for it to win off 65.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

10 at 11.0 layed, might be matched in running

Wasn;t matched, Dubawi Gold finished 4th, I was hoping for a softer ground but still 200/1 was a good bet.

RoverJames wrote: »

5.15 Caterick Music Festival 2.94 €10.00 layed tbp
I think the ground is a tad soft for this one

unplaced

RoverJames wrote: »

5.25 W'ton Twisted 4 €4.00 layed to win

CD winner which I like but so too are another couple in the race, can't quite see the price as being decent enough not to lay.

didn't win

RoverJames wrote: »

5.30 Chel Clondaw Warrior 1.47 €10.00 layed tbp

Bit of a guessing game, price is horrible short though and represents no value.

Won

RoverJames wrote: »

5.40 Kelso Yorkshire Knight 5.9 €4.00 layed to win

.........

didn't win

RoverJames wrote: »

5.45 DownPatrick Ironmill Lad 2.76 €10.00 layed to place

One of the popular e/w choices here, little value as a result

Won

RoverJames wrote: »

5.55 Cork Ansaab 1.33 €20.00 layed tbp
loads of runners and poor conditions for place price that short

3rd

RoverJames wrote: »

6.30 W'ton Alternative Choice 3.1 €7.00 backed tbp and to win Alternative Choice 9.4 €10.0
.........

nope

RoverJames wrote: »

8.00 W'ton Steady Gaze 2.22 €16.00 layed tbp

.........

unplaced

RoverJames wrote: »

8.30 W'ton Thoroughly Red 38 €6.0 backed to win & tbp Thoroughly Red 7.2 €12.00
..........

woeful really

RoverJames wrote: »

9.00 W'ton Justcallmehandsome 8.8 €15.00 backed to win & tbp Justcallmehandsome 2.94 €6.00

9 yo now and blows hot and cold, it in form can go in here tonight.

The fav, Aussie blue has a patchy record off a mark like today's on the AW, 'tis a big ask I think for it to win off 65.

nope, looked like he had a great chance turning for home but didn't materialise.

-€54.68 today

two today and no lays...

3.05 Bath Schism 7.47 €20.00 to win & Schism 2.52 €10.00 tbp

Question marks over most of these with respect to the 17f trip, Schism had a run in a 0 to 85 over 16f on soft, this is a weaker race, Schism was well beaten that day but not by horses that would get into this race, off 73 in a 0 to 75 Schism has a chance greater than the price I feel.


4.25 Kempton Nearby 2.84 €25.00 backed to win
On the ratings has the guts of a stone on the rest, back over hurdles has a very decent chance of getting home in front. Good hurdle from often doesn't translate to chasing and I reckon this ones recent chase from gives a price over hurdles that is a tad on the fat side.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

two today and no lays...

3.05 Bath Schism 7.47 €20.00 to win & Schism 2.52 €10.00 tbp

..............
4.25 Kempton Nearby 2.84 €25.00 backed to win
...........

both 2nd

-€30.53 today

I've been pondering quite a bit about this log lately, for the last eight weeks its been neither profitable, overly loss making or interesting. I think I've been playing it too safe at times, it is money, there was over a grand involved and there's still the guts of that there, but it grew from €60 which was nice. But its stagnated and is boring enough now I reckon. I don't particularly want to have a really really long running thread that turns into a snooze fest, in saying that I'm not going to go too looney either. Things shall be just a tad different going forward and we'll see what happens

Pontefract 4.10 tomorrow Mr Crystal €20.00 (liability) layed tbp at Betfair SP

No point laying this one to win as he'll be going off at between 7 and 10 to 1 I expect, I'm not risking a score for €2/€3.

Anyway this is a 17f 0 to 75 HC on forecast good ground, Mr Crystal comes to this race down 4lbs from his last spin over this sort of trip (lto over 12f I'm not really looking at tbh). 'twas a 0 to 85 over 16f that he tackled off 76, finishing 8th 7l behind the winner.

We have to go back a fair bit in time for the last decent run of flat attempts over this sort of trip...

10Oct09 Yor 18Gd C4Hc 7K 9-5 3/12 (2¼L Theola 8-8) 14/1 Frederik Tylicki 77 * *


05Oct09 Pon 18GF C3 9K 9-3 4/4 (16L Urban Poet 8-5) 11/2 Joe Fanning 77 * *


10Jul09 Asc 16Gd C3Hc 7K 9-1 7/8 (37L Alanbrooke 8-5) 11/1 Neil Brown 80 * *


21Jun09 Pon 18GF C4Hc 5K 8-11 2/8 (¼L Markington 8-3) 2/1F Jamie Kyne 77 * *


08Jun09 Pon 17Gd C4Hc 5K 9-5 2/10 (7L Tyrrells Wood 9-7) 13/2 Frederik Tylicki 77 * *


Patchy enough and two years on after attempts on the NH sphere I don't fancy this one, despite running well at Pontefract occasionally.

4.30 Windsor Out Of The Storm €20.00 (liability) layed tbp

Won a 0 to 60 off 55 over 10f, then ran in better races without success, HC has left this one at 61 and the drop in class to a 0 to 65 is presumably and attempt to make the most of the mark as it hasn't been eased.

Half of the field are either up in the weights or making their HC debut so this might well be a decent enough 0 to 65. Also I'm reckoning that Out of the Storm prefers the going a tad easier than good to firm.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Pontefract 4.10 tomorrow Mr Crystal €20.00 (liability) layed tbp at Betfair SP.....................

7th at 11/2
Betfair SP was 2.73

RoverJames wrote: »

4.30 Windsor Out Of The Storm €20.00 (liability) layed tbp..................

11th at 6/1
Betfair SP was 2.72, there was two reduction factors though ..........
(RF Tinaheely 4.06%)
(RF Avon Supreme 8.06%)

+ €20.75 today

Three for tomorrow....

3.40 Exeter
My Brother Sylvest €20.00 risked layed tbp
Been a while since this one put in a decent shift, only one win from 10 hurdle races, that was the only place achieved too aside from the bumpers. Has been beaten by loads and loads of lengths in recent races and this looks no easier than some of them.

4.30 Lingfield Towy Boy 3.5 €8.00 layed tbp, I actually liked what was available to was happy to take the 3.5.
Overall AW profile isn't bad, 3 wins, 8 2nds and 6 3rds from 38 starts. Two place finishes from the last four starts too but I can't fancy this one at all in this race. Down another 3 or 4 lbs and I'd be interested in backing it in a 0 to 65 or a 0 to 60 here.

5.00 Lingfield Stonecrabstomorrow €20.00 risked layed tbp
You have to go back almost two years to find AW form that's decent for this one, again overall AW profile in impressive on bare facts but at the thin end of the wedge I reckon. I'd be surprised if this one featured.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

..

3.40 Exeter
My Brother Sylvest €20.00 risked layed tbp .................

This one won at 13/8 which surprised me but such things happen, the silver lining is that the entire liability wasn't matched, which also surprised me, I suppose that's the negative of dabbling at the Betfair SP, still it's very strange that the full €20 liability wasn't matched Very, very strange, that's the only explanation I can think of, any other thoughts folks?

My Brother Sylvest 1.45 11.66 Lay 17-Oct-11 22:46 -5.25
Lay subtotal: -5.25
Market subtotal: -5.25
Commission : 0.00
Net Market Total: -5.25

RoverJames wrote: »

..
4.30 Lingfield Towy Boy 3.5 €8.00 layed tbp................

Though I took the 3.5 I only noticed this evening that it was matched at 3.2 so I wasn't exposed to the full €20, of course as the horse finished 5th at 10/1 that meant less profit for me, only a tiny bit though, less than a euro

Towy Boy 3.20 8.00 Lay........
Lay subtotal: 8.00
Market subtotal: 8.00
Commission @ 4.88%: 0.39
Net Market Total: 7.61

RoverJames wrote: »

..
5.00 Lingfield Stonecrabstomorrow €20.00 risked layed tbp .............

Finished 9th at 6/1, full liability of €20 was matched

Stonecrabstomorrow 2.38 14.49 Lay ........
Lay subtotal: 14.49
Market subtotal: 14.49
Commission @ 4.9%: 0.71
Net Market Total: 13.78

2.38 Betfair SP to be placed is nice and skimpy in fairness for a 6/1 market SP.

+€16.14 today as the full stake wasn't matched on the one that won, would have just scratched a tiny profit only for that.

3ndahalfof6

but if its not matched you retain that part of the stake?

ah ok the 13/8 won so you lost what ever was matched.

3ndahalfof6

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

but if its not matched you retain that part of the stake?

ah ok the 13/8 won so you lost what ever was matched.

Yep, I only lost €5.25 as apparently only €11.66 was matched, well weird really, you'd think people would be lashing on at the price (folks that like dead certs). If it had been unplaced I'd be sick as at the odds if the €20 liability was matched there would have been €40 ish coming my way.

I have no choice but to play the Betfair SP as I can't really be updating my log and placing bets during the day Mon to Fri.

The odd time, like with Towy Boy, what's available is fine but 'tis rare enough.

4.20 Worcester Maid Of Silk €20.00 layed tbp, risking €20

Hasn't been great in novice HC company, this won't be any easier and the 20f trip may well be a stretch, this one has tried 19f once and didn't see the trip out satisfactorily, the step up to 20f while an unknown to a degree shouldn't suit.

Nothing tempting me to lay at Kempton in the 8.50, one is tempting me to back though, Moynahan, I backed this one lto and was reckoned that the horse was fairly unlucky to finish out of the money, stuck by the rail behind a wall of horses and full of running, was switched out a furlong out and ran on fairly well in the end. Now still at 82 on the ratings Moynahan is well handicapped, you'd want to be very very unlucky to have real trouble in running at Kempton as when the track opens up there's a decent way to go before the finish line, Moynahan also has some very tasty 8f form here at Kempton...

03May10 Kem 8St C3Hc 7K 9-2 4/14 (3¼L Den's Gift 8-5) p 5/1 Kieren Fallon 87 * *
That was a 0 to 90, Moynahan won at Goodwood next time out

20Apr10 Kem 8St C3Hc 6K 8-10 3/10 (1L Splendorinthegrass 9-4) p 9/2 William Buick 87
This was a 0 to 95, good run, only beaten a length.

I'm backing this one as he's in great form, looked full of running lto when unlucky, relishes the trip, has been placed in better races here over CD and I feel is due to go in

Moynahan 10.5 €10.00 backed to win
Moynahan 3.25 €4.00 backed tbp as a saver for the win bet (the ole ratio betting as per another poster in here, I'm hopeless with names )

9.20 Kempton Ongoodform 3.15 €9.50 layed tbp
Lots of these look potentially progressive, this one tackles the 8f 0 to 85 here off 78, placed in 3 of the last 4 races, 4th lto not beaten much, all over shorter trips. Previous attempst at 8f weren't great..

18Jun11 Lin 8Sft C5Hc 3K 10-0 7/10 (15L Willow Dancer 10-0) p 5/1 Luke Morris 75

17Jun10 Asc 8GF C23yHc 62K 7-13 21/27 (18½L Ransom Note 8-10) 66/1 John Fahy 86

More of the same would be great here

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.20 Worcester Maid Of Silk €20.00 layed tbp, risking €20.........

5th at 5/1 SP all of the lay liability was matched at Betfair tbp lay SP

Maid Of Silk 2.20 14.24 Lay ............
Lay subtotal: 14.24
Market subtotal: 14.24
Commission @ 4.92%: 0.70
Net Market Total: 13.54

RoverJames wrote: »

Nothing tempting me to lay at Kempton in the 8.50................................
Moynahan 10.5 €10.00 backed to win
Moynahan 3.25 €4.00 backed tbp ............

Was very very very bad, shoved along before they came near the home straight

RoverJames wrote: »

9.20 Kempton Ongoodform 3.15 €9.50 layed tbp............

Unplaced, I'll update with SP etc when the full result appears on http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/results/home.sd
13th at 9/1

+ €8.57 today