Horses......... lots of lays

All three unplaced today -€25.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4th 4 week term concludes
From Sun 11th September to Sat 8th Oct

Total P&L: -€81.31

And the current total which is from Sun 19th June to today....
Total P&L: €910.47

There's €979.38 in the account, not much progress made in the last 8 weeks (the opposite really) but it could have been a lot worse.

Onwards and upwards

(fingers crossed)

As I mentioned I'm going to update per calender month going forward...
From Sun 09th October to today 31st October

Total P&L: -€178.30 which is awful really

And the current total which is from Sun 19th June to today....
Total P&L: €732.17

€801.08 in the bank now only.

6.40 Kempton Laaheb 2.06 €16.00 backed to win

I'm taking the 2.06 now as I am happy to do so but also I'll be surprised if any better is available tomorrow.

This should be a stroll for this one I reckon. Rated 113 and has won here over a furlong shorter as ease beating a 115 rated fav, Hollberg by over 3l when rated 111 in Sep 2010...

04Sep10 Kem 12St C1G3 34K 9-4 1/9 (3½L Holberg 9-4) 11/4 Richard Hills 111

Won next time out too but no success in 2011, I'm not overly bothered by that as I don't think there has been anything wrong or amiss with the horse in those runs, simply has been running against better animals, lto in June the 54l beating doesn't make good reading but eased when beaten is just that.

Nearest rival on the ratings, Prince Bishop hasn't really impressed and the rest don't seem to be at the required level, Parlour Games, next market rival to Laaheb has an awful lot to find.

In summary, I can't see any of them troubling Laaheb

.......... in case ye think I'm going mad there'll be a normally large priced selection in the 7.10

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.40 Kempton Laaheb 2.06 €16.00 backed to win

I'm taking the 2.06 now as I am happy to do so but also I'll be surprised if any better is available tomorrow.................

2.28 available now :rolleyes:

2.96 €10.00 more on

How wrong I was :rolleyes:
The winner on ratings alone was humongous value though pricewise.

Anyway, back to more usual bets....
7.10 Kempton Kakapuka 10 €5.00 backed tbp
Kakapuka 46 €7.00 backed to win

A lay set-up in case he's collared close home :pac:
Kakapuka
Ref: xxxxxxxx
3 €50.00 €150.00
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'

This one is priced waaaaaaaaaay too big I think, won a 7f 0 to 80 here off 76 very very easily, tackling this longer race off 81 but the extra furlong may well not inconvenience and the price in both win and place markets is lunacy.

The topweight looks a smidge of value too tbp, lto 2nd over CD off 83 by a neck in a 0 to 85, 2lbs for that may well not prevent another place here...
Norse Blues 3 €10 backed tbp

7.40 Kempton Princess Lexi 7.4 €10 backed to win

8f looks ideal, HC mark is decent considering recent turf exploits, AW not perfect for it but Kempton would seem the best AW option.

8.10 Kempton Yakama 3.41 €10.00 backed tbp & to win Yakama 10 €7.00

Fairly woedul race, I like the look of this one though, has won over 8f and 9f, 7f would be fine I think as this one doesn't take too long to get spooled up, rating is low on past runs and some recent form is fairly decent too. Should go well with Seb on board too.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.40 Kempton Laaheb 2.06 €16.00 backed to win
..................

RoverJames wrote: »

2.96 €10.00 more on

3rd, woeful really, drifted like a barge in the market.

RoverJames wrote: »

.............
7.10 Kempton Kakapuka 10 €5.00 backed tbp
Kakapuka 46 €7.00 backed to win

A lay set-up in case he's collared close home :pac:
Kakapuka
Ref: xxxxxxxx
3 €50.00 €150.00
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'

..................
Norse Blues 3 €10 backed tbp

Both unplaced, in running lay not matched, I'd back Kakapuka over 7f at Lingfield or Kempton in a suitable race off the current mark no bother if the price was ok.

RoverJames wrote: »

7.40 Kempton Princess Lexi 7.4 €10 backed to win

.............

Nope

RoverJames wrote: »

8.10 Kempton Yakama 3.41 €10.00 backed tbp & to win Yakama 10 €7.00

..............

Won, at 10/1 SP, should have held off a while with my bet, perils of Betfair I suppose.

+ €24.84 today

7.30 W'ton Mr Plod 5.9 €10.00 backed to win
Good chance here for this one, I reckon it's between two of them so the 5.6 suits me big time.

Mr Plod won a CD 0 to 75 off 2lb higher back in February, got 3lbs for that and didn't impress since, last two runs have been on turf so I'm not overly worried about that form, back down to 54 has a very decent chance, also won at Lingfield off 56 as well as here, 54 is a nice mark for this one if firing.

I'd also like Soundbyte, solid claims too but Mr Plod ticks most boxes for me except recent form.

...... drift has brought the tbp price from 2.0 to ...Mr Plod 2.46 €10.0 so happy out.

8.00 W'ton Alshazah 4.9 €10.00 backed to win really fancy this one

Tackles this off 75, same as lto over the 12f trip at Kempton in a 0 to 85, I reckon 'twas the quality of the opposition that day rather than the 12f resulted in the 4th place that day. That was a class 4 this is a class 5, hopefully W'ton won't inconvenience.

Previous run was over 11f at Kempton off 5lbs lower and he won that well, suggesting an extra furlong would be no problem.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

7.30 W'ton Mr Plod 5.9 €10.00 backed to win..............

RoverJames wrote: »

...... drift has brought the tbp price from 2.0 to ...Mr Plod 2.46 €10.0 so happy out.

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

8.00 W'ton Alshazah 4.9 €10.00 backed to win ...........

Won at 11/2

+€40.97 today

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

8.25 Lingfield Kipchak 10.5 €6.00 backed to win and tbp 2.7 €4.00

7f 0-65 HC on good

Connections lash this lad out over a variety of trips, 7/8f seems optimal in fairness.........

CD form from June...
Lin 7Fm C5Hc 2K 7-13 2/11 (½L Kakapuka 9-4) b1 4/1 Sophie Silvester
Running off a mar of 60 was only beaten 1/2l by the 72 rated winner, nothing wrong with that form.

Hit and miss since but easing down the weights accordingly and now 62 in this.

Anything can happen in these apprentice races, this lad is priced very big....
4.30 W'ton Kipchak 60 €4.00 backed to win, often goes off in front so might get the stake back even if it loses...
Kipchak
Ref: xxxxxxxxxx
20 €5.00 €100.00
Bet changed successfully from 'Cancel at In-Play' to 'Keep at In-Play'

5.00 W'ton Morermaloke 20 €5 backed to win and tbp Morermaloke 6 €4.00

Goes on the AW, only a 3 yo, down to a mark that's fair now, can't ask for more than a fair mark, beaten 3rd in a 0 to 65 by 2 1/2l by the 7/2 fav, trip suits. Overpriced me thinks.

6.10 W'ton Pipers Piping 5.7 €10.00 backed to win

Won CD 0 to 62 (same as this) off 60 in Nov'10, went up as far as 70 odd in the ratings, came 3rd in Jan'11 in a 0 to 70 off 70 at Lingfield, beaten only 1/2l, back to a mark of 59 here tonight. Good chance.

6.40 W'ton diamond run 10 at 4.5 backed to win, another who I reckon is down to a mark that is fair, more of interest is the trip which I think is well suitable going off early turf form.

8.15 W'ton Jawaab 6.8 €10.00 backed tbp and to win Jawaab 32 €4.00

This one looks a very decent price, if you bin recent efforts
Go back to the not too far in the past CD win off 80 in a 0 to 85, won that well if you consider the horse who finished 2nd was disqualified, the horse that inherited 2nd was a couple of lengths back.

If firing has a great chance, one of the recent runs wasn't that bad anyway and hurdle form beaten by loads of lenghts isn't overly relevant really.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Anything can happen in these apprentice races, this lad is priced very big....
4.30 W'ton Kipchak 60 €4.00 backed to win............

Nope

RoverJames wrote: »

5.00 W'ton Morermaloke 20 €5 backed to win and tbp Morermaloke 6 €4.00..............

Unplaced

RoverJames wrote: »

6.10 W'ton Pipers Piping 5.7 €10.00 backed to win..........

Nope

RoverJames wrote: »

6.40 W'ton diamond run 10 at 4.5 backed to win, .........

Nope

RoverJames wrote: »

8.15 W'ton Jawaab 6.8 €10.00 backed tbp and to win Jawaab 32 €4.00..........

Nope

-€47 today

The days with all losers are quite tough really

3.40 Doncaster Eton Rifles 8.2 €10.00 backed to win and tbp Eton Rifles 2.7 €5.00

2l beaten by Our Jonathon lto in a handicap, same terms today, that race was a race of two halves, Our Jonathon won one side, Eton Rifles the other, I wouldn't lay Eton Rifles at over double the price of Our Jonathon, looks very reasonable.

4.10 tewin wood 10 @ 2.9 backed tbp. This one has placed off similar marks on both turf and AW, also the ease in the ground won't hinder, 7f not too short either.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.40 Doncaster Eton Rifles 8.2 €10.00 backed to win and tbp Eton Rifles 2.7 €5.00

...

Unplaced

RoverJames wrote: »

4.10 tewin wood 10 @ 2.9 backed tbp. This one has placed off similar marks on both turf and AW, also the ease in the ground won't hinder, 7f not too short either.

Unplaced

- €25 today

No AW in England tonight and I won't be backing CD.

1.50 Leopardstown Seeharn €20 at 4.3 backed to win

Big bet (relatively speaking, 2.5% of the bank) but I reckon it's worth chancing. Despite Eton Rifles not being great yesterday, I'd put some of that at SdeS's door but such is life, I reckon Seeharn is a tad better than the rating suggests due to lto form with Eton Rifles. As well as that we have the previous CD victory, the form on easy ground and the 3yo huge scope for coming on a tad to add to the mix. And............Dandy Boy shouldn't like the surface, none of the rest seem to have the appropriate boxes ticked.

I think the price will shrink too over the coming 35 mins while I grill my rashers :pac:

3.35 leop hadrians waltz 10 at 4.5 backed tbp, the ease in the ground would be the main factor in siding with this one, in decent form too which is a plus.

3.45 f los, cold harbour 10 at 3.75 tbp and 5 at 12..0 to win, pulled up lto but loves it around here, on a handy mark.

F sake, minus 45 today

Will be having one bet on Wednesday at Kempton, after that I'll be taking a break from studying form until the Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, sick to death of it.

7.50 Kempton Choral 2.56 €9.93 backed tbp and to win Choral 7 €25

I backed this lad lto, finished 3rd off the same mark in a similar 0 to 75 HC, I felt he had performed better than the result suggested, was on the rail and switched out to challenge the two leaders, I reckon he should have finished a lot closer if things had fell differently. I had thought the 8f was a tad short for the winner that day, Dare to Bare but I was clearly wrong, in fairness on his run before that he did seem in trouble before the turn for home over 10f so maybe 8f was actually more suitable.

Choral has had 4 AW spins, placed in all of them. I backed Choral lto as I reckoned a 0 to 75 8f run here was a very realistic target, I still do.

Pricewise, I think there's huge value here, 9 runners, three of which are making their AW debut, one of that 3 and another are making their HC debut. We have the fav, Methayel trying this up 4lbs for a 0 to 65 turf win, another fancied one, Swift Breeze is up 4lbs too for a 0 to 75 7f Wolverhampton win. Isingy Red in fairness does look potentially well handicapped going off it's Chester form but how transferrable is Chester form to the AW here?

I reckon Choral is a great bet at the price, 13/2 (early price, I have real money on too) in the bookies, I reckon 4/1 bookies price would be more on the ball, two course and distance runs, one a maiden and lto the mentioned HC, horses for courses and all that.

Apologies about inaccuracies with the fav, wrote that an hour ago.

Beaten fair and square, can't complain, had a perfect run through and would have won if good enough, ah well.

-€10.27 today

Would have been nice to have signed off with a winner.

I'm off to Cheltenham for the Open Meeting, 'till next week chaps.