Horses......... lots of lays

12.20 Southwell Ace of Spies €4 at 17.0 to win and tbp €4 at 4.6

I don't really like Southwell but there are two horses I really like the look of today and Ace of Spies is the first one, two very tasty pieces of course and distance form this year make it look like a big contender in this 0 to 65 off 62.

Jul'11 2nd off 67 in a 0 to 70 and Feb'11 3rd off 73 in a 0 to 75, down to 62 here I really fancy it, the rating hasn't slipped due to any performances here so it doesn't bother me

2nd one....... 3.20 southwell William haigh 5 at 3.05 to be placed and 14.92 at 9.21 to win, last venture here wasn't bad and net trouble in running, seems suited to tIe surface and with some luck should be involved.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

12.20 Southwell Ace of Spies €4 at 17.0 to win and tbp €4 at 4.6...............

3rd, led for most of it, ah well.

RoverJames wrote: »

2nd one....... 3.20 southwell William haigh 5 at 3.05 to be placed and 14.92 at 9.21 to win.............

Won, didn't look like doing so, was last and seemed to be stuggling early in the race, came up the straight like a motorbike

+€135.98

Didn't update yesterday, laptop finally died and I can't seem to find the p&l part of Betfair on the Android app.

2.20 Lingfield Ivory Silk 9.6 10.00 backed to win and tbp Ivory Silk 3.1 €5.00
This one has been running over 6f for the last 6 months, earlier this year it was in great form over 7f, two wins and two seconds in 4 consecutive races, both of the wins were here, admittedly in weaker races but handicaps are handicaps and with trip and surface to suit if the handicaper has done his job this one has a price that is far too generous for it's chances. Adam Kirby was in the saddle for both of the wins and he takes the ride again today.

Running over 6f has brought the mark from a high of 85 back down to a more lenient 78, perhaps still a tad high but the price compensates.

I'm hopeful of a very decent effort today in this

......5 at 12.5 too

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.20 Lingfield Ivory Silk 9.6 10.00 backed to win and tbp Ivory Silk 3.1 €5.00
This one has been running over 6f for the last 6 months, earlier this year it was in great form over 7f, two wins and two seconds in 4 consecutive races, both of the wins were here, admittedly in weaker races but handicaps are handicaps and with trip and surface to suit if the handicaper has done his job this one has a price that is far too generous for it's chances. Adam Kirby was in the saddle for both of the wins and he takes the ride again today......

RoverJames wrote: »

......5 at 12.5 too

unplaced so dropped the twenty, worth looking out for though especially if dropping a pound or three.
Only one today, an old friend of mine, 7.15 w'ton choral 20 at 5.5, in 3yo plus company the 3 pound allowance could be seen to good effect hopefully, beaten last time out by a down in class aw debutant choral was ahead of the rest, same mark today against exposed rivals.

Doesn't seen to like W'ton
Minus 20 today too.

3.00 lingfield deerslayer 10 at 11.5 and tbp 5 at 3.37
This one looks nicely entered to run a race, trip is ideal and surface suits. Lto on turf showed the hc mark wasn't out of the way, twas the last half furlong was the problem me thinks, looks a bit of value even now, should have backed it last might though.

7.05 Kempton Abriachan 5.8 €4.00 backed tbp and to win Abriachan 22 €5.00

Given the price I could well be wrong about this one but the possible value is irresistible, form in 7f AW races here and at Lingfield reads 3, 3, 8, 8, 1 and 6. Both of the 8th places were beaten 4l so not too bad, the CD win was in was in a HC off 5lbs lower but I feel this 4yo is coming along nicely now after starting off higher rated. Won lto on turf over a furlong longer and AW mark is potentially lenient if things drop right.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

7.05 Kempton Abriachan 5.8 €4.00 backed tbp and to win Abriachan 22 €5.00...............

-€9 today, got bumped coming out of the stalls and had no chance from then on.

7.10 Kempton New Leyf 2.4 €6.00 backed tbp and to win New Leyf 6.2 €10.00

Not one of my most puzzling of selections, top weight in a handicap, lto run was decent, has won a CD 0 to 85 off 84, decent ish price, good few runners though but many of them shouldn't feature. The place price is very decent in comparison to the win price, I was expecting 2.1ish or so but the number of runners has provided an element of value.

A decent performance should be seen here, fair play to the connections, a 0 to 85 here looks the best option, 'tis debatable if an 8f would suit more but the CD win here does appease that to an extent, the straight is plenty long enough here to get motoring.

7.40 Kempton Good Authority 3.05 €4.00 backed tbp and to win
Good Authority 8.8 €6.00

Not a bad effort last time out here over this trip, that was the 8f debut and I feel the step up in trip suited, not beaten too far in that 0 to 85 and didn't have a clear run. With a smoother passage this easier 0 to 75 may well be winnable for Good Authority.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

7.10 Kempton New Leyf 2.4 €6.00 backed tbp and to win New Leyf 6.2 €10.00.................

3rd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.40 Kempton Good Authority 3.05 €4.00 backed tbp and to win
Good Authority 8.8 €6.00...............

5th, would be of interest back in a 0 to 75 7f me thinks.

-€12.01 today

Leeg17

RoverJames wrote: »

3rd

I backed it at e/w and made a meagre profit.

Onwards and upwards for tomorrow, thanks for the tips

Leeg17

Leeg17 wrote: »

I backed it at e/w and made a meagre profit.

Onwards and upwards for tomorrow, thanks for the tips

Glad that you didn't lose cash anyway
Cheers for the thanks, the tips have been fairly woeful of late though, onwards and upwards as you say though, with fingers crossed

6.55 Dundalk fantasy king 10 at 3.35, rare for me to back one here, not much to say about it either, just smells good really. More of a usual post to follow for the 7.40 at Wol'ton in a while.

7.40 W'ton Follow The Flag 13.5 €7.50 to win and another €7.50 on at Betfair SP and also a small tbp bet Follow The Flag 3.45 €5.00

Decent chunk on this one, I give four of the contenders a genuine chance so the price for Follow the Flag seems incredibly juicy for me so that's why I've a seemingly decent bit on the win

Follow the Flag has a decent AW history, 8 wins, 8 2nds and 8 3rds from 50 appearances. Follow the Flag is also a course and distance winner which as ye know I like, not in too bad form of late and is down to a mark of 73, which is pretty good imo as Follow the Flag won a 0 to 85 off 82 at Lingfield in February.

Totall ours also has a decent chance, won a 9f race lto off 79 easily in a 0 to 80. So too, Isleman who on Kempton form is in with a shout, also won a maiden here. She ain't a Saint might feature too on W'ton debut, interestingly the rest of the field don't appeal, in fairness it is wide open.

Bit of value anyway with Follow the Flag I think.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.55 Dundalk fantasy king 10 at 3.35...........

Won

RoverJames wrote: »

7.40 W'ton Follow The Flag 13.5 €7.50 to win and another €7.50 on at Betfair SP and also a small tbp bet Follow The Flag 3.45 €5.00.................

a woeful 10th

+€2.35 today

6.50 W'ton Global 3.5 €5.00 tbp and to win €10 at 12.5

down to 64 here should be in with a decent chance if firing at all, grub on so nothing else to say :pac:

7.50 W'ton William Haigh 17 €20 and tbp William Haigh 4.6 €5.00

Got a rise as you'd expect (7lbs) for winning last time out at Southwell, that was the 3rd spin at that track, previous efforts were a maiden 8f win and a nearly 2l beating in a HC. Took a while for him to get going lto but the manner in which he finished the race does suggest that the step up in trip does suit, the 7lb rise doesn't bother me as it's warranted and fair, the step up in trip doesn't bother me either, in fact it's a huge potential plus. The debut here at W'ton is the main concern, but the price washes that away, I really think this one is great value. If taking to the surface at all he should be involved.

There's 13 runners, the price is huge and might get bigger but I'm happy with my little wager at 17.0

Mthor5

RoverJames wrote: »

7.50 W'ton William Haigh 17 €20 and tbp William Haigh 4.6 €5.00

Got a rise as you'd expect (7lbs) for winning last time out at Southwell, that was the 3rd spin at that track, previous efforts were a maiden 8f win and a nearly 2l beating in a HC. Took a while for him to get going lto but the manner in which he finished the race does suggest that the step up in trip does suit, the 7lb rise doesn't bother me as it's warranted and fair, the step up in trip doesn't bother me either, in fact it's a huge potential plus. The debut here at W'ton is the main concern, but the price washes that away, I really think this one is great value. If taking to the surface at all he should be involved.

There's 13 runners, the price is huge and might get bigger but I'm happy with my little wager at 17.0

Absolute gent!
10 ew

Mthor5

Mthor5 wrote: »

Absolute gent!
10 ew

That's brilliant, delighted for you
Only signed up to the OLBG last week so that's me in profit there for November too on my debut month. When the jockey got busy on him before the bend I reckoned he'd respond, lto he looked a dog too but responded well, the first few furlongs had me thinking he wasn't minding the surface

Only negative is I have a dodgy knee, was at the punchbag for half an hour earlier in the gym, jumped out of the chair when he won and I'll be limping for a few days :pac: Well worth it though

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.50 W'ton Global 3.5 €5.00 tbp and to win €10 at 12.5....................

8th

RoverJames wrote: »

7.50 W'ton William Haigh 17 €20 and tbp William Haigh 4.6 €5.00.............

Won

+€306.44 today

Leeg17

Delighted for you

Leeg17

Leeg17 wrote: »

Delighted for you

Cheers, twas the good wishes you left earlier in the week got him home :pac:
Had a fiver on both of them in cash too

Leeg17

RoverJames wrote: »

Cheers, twas the good wishes you left earlier in the week got him home :pac:
Had a fiver on both of them in cash too

That and coupled with the fact that I didn't bet on it haha. Up bigtime from PyRo's tips so I can't complain.

Long may the winning continue haha.

Huntey

Fantastic stuff James.

x PyRo

Great shout my man and nice to see you're not banned. :pac:

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

Great shout my man and nice to see you're not banned. :pac:

Cheers on both accounts :pac:

2.15 Lingfield Alshazah €10.0 at Betfair SP

A bit uninspiring really but such is life

I like the look of this lad, a 3yo rated 80 in this 0 to 80 HC, has the 3yo weight allowance and I feel he'll benefit hugely from it, two main pieces of form are the bones of my confidence...

12Sep11 Kem 11St C5Hc 2K 9-0 1/13 (1L If I Were A Boy 9-8) 3/1F James Millman 70

One that race well, a 0 to 75 off 70, again had the 3yo allowance, was raised 5lbs for that...


13Oct11 Kem 12St C43yHc 4K 8-11 4/14 (3¾L Yasir 9-1) 8/1 James Millman 75

Not great then but that was a 0 to 85 for 3 year olds, met a few better than him on the day, much better lto..............


03Nov11 Wol 12St C53yHc 2K 9-7 1/10 (3L Hygrove Welshlady 8-8) 11/4F James Millman 75 * *

Won easily, amongst 3yos.

Much of this field look fairly exposed or have it to do at the weights, this one is the best of them on paper (HC rating wise) and has the 3yo allowance which gives another useful edge, 4.6 at the mo on Betfair, I've gone for SP, may or may not be better.