Horses......... lots of lays

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.15 Lingfield Alshazah €10.0 at Betfair SP...........

7th, -€10 today

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.00 lingfield deerslayer 10 at 11.5 and tbp 5 at 3.37
This one looks nicely entered to run a race, trip is ideal and surface suits. Lto on turf showed the hc mark wasn't out of the way, twas the last half furlong was the problem me thinks, looks a bit of value even now, should have backed it last might though.

Won today at Lingfield over the trip I thought was ideal and on the suitable surface, wasn't a handicap so I wasn't tempted as the horse didn't look too well treated at the weights, 5/1 was a bit skinny with 8 runners I thought, the joys of horse racing.

6.30 Kempton Requisite 14.66 €5.00 and €5 at SP too and tbp Requisite 4.21 €4.00

HCer has been leaving this one at the current mark of 75 for a while, I see that as being remotely positive, I don't think Requisite would be winning any race carrying much more but I reckon it doesn't anchor her either.

Have been waiting for this one to run over 6f, Kempton suits this one, 3 of the 5 AW wins were here, 2 over the 7f trip and one over 6f. requisite isn't in bad form these days and seems to be one that doesn't mind racing as they run it frequently, the price is more than fair I think, admittedly a class 4 0 to 85 here does take winning when you're bottom weight but I think the price compensates for that. The 7f race won here recently was a 0 to 85 too and Requisite was in front well before the furlong pole.

Going for a split bet in case there's a big drift, can't see it happening tbh though but nothing ventured etc etc etc.

Small place bet too, has been placed 12 out of 34 starts on the AW so over 3/1 for the place seems ok considering.

Derek!

Brilliant James well done to ya

Mthor5

Nicely done, flew in at the end to win by a nose

Cheers gents, just saw a repeat of it, only got home from work in time for the in running odds screen on betfair to read 1.01 to back :pac:

'tis either a feast or a famine at this game.

7.30 Kempton Danzoe €5 at 2.98 tbp and €10 at 8.8 to win

Interesting contender in this 0 to 65 6f HC, more or less topweight off 65.

In 9 AW runs has won twice and finished 3rd twice, not a bad AW profile.

Both of the wins were over 12 months ago, won a 0 to 80 5f HC here off 65, won that easily, speeding away from the rest.

Followed up shortly afterwards by winning a 0 to 70 at Lingfield over 6f off the higher mark of 69, led well that day too.

Was rated 71 at one stage since than but has now slipped back to 65, nothing at all wrong with lto's effort over 5f here, finished 4th, only beaten a length though, was too far back, made up great ground and was nearest at the finish, the extra furlong here coupled with some luck in running and a decent ride will make the price far too big (hopefully)

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.30 Kempton Requisite 14.66 €5.00 and €5 at SP too and tbp Requisite 4.21 €4.00...............

Won

RoverJames wrote: »

7.30 Kempton Danzoe €5 at 2.98 tbp and €10 at 8.8 to win.................

4th

+€113.08 today

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

As I mentioned I'm going to update per calender month going forward...
From Sun 09th October to today 31st October

Total P&L: -€178.30 which is awful really

And the current total which is from Sun 19th June to today....
Total P&L: €732.17

€801.08 in the bank now only.

November concludes on a positive note + €438.64

Total from Sun 19th June to today....
Total P&L: €1166.81

€1,239.72 in the bank now


November had no lays placed and all bets were on the AW surfaces, big change in tactics really.

Huntey

Top notch Jimmy! :pac:

Huntey

Huntey wrote: »

Top notch Jimmy! :pac:

'twas a bit poxy really, William Haigh won twice for me

7.00 W'ton Istiqdaam 7.2 €4.00 tbp and €4 at 28.0 to win

Big valuesome price for this one I think

0 to 75 6f HC, Istiqdaam is 2 wins, 2 seconds and a third from 13 AW spins, also a course winner and has a second here too. Off 75 looks to have it to do but has never tackled this short a trip on the AW, despite a 6f win on turf. Often races prominently so the step back in trip may well offset the effect of carrying the weight, dodgy enough theory but as I often say, the price compensates

Was on a very decent run until lto's effort here over 9f which is a stretch for Istiqdaam, again, was prominent but didn't see the trip out.

Might well get a run worth looking at tonight.

7.30 W'ton Restless Bay 4.16 €4.00 tbp and €10 at 14.0 to win

I'm backing class to shine through here

This 3yo is potentially so much better than the rest in this 0 to 75 6f race, placed 2nd off a mark of 81 earlier this year at Southwell and also finished 2nd off 79 in a class3 6f HC over the summer at Bath when not having a clear path home.

lto which was over CD here wasn't great at all but Restless Bay has won over the trip here and also over shorter, 75 is a mark that it can go in off so with everything except recent form a plus I'm happy to back

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

7.00 W'ton Istiqdaam 7.2 €4.00 tbp and €4 at 28.0 to win..................

11th (second last)

RoverJames wrote: »

7.30 W'ton Restless Bay 4.16 €4.00 tbp and €10 at 14.0 to win..............

Won

+€127.65 today

x PyRo

Brilliant mate, well done again.

4.30 W'ton Opus Maximus 4.37 €15.00 backed to win

Unimaginative enough selection but I think Opus Maximus is a worthy fav who will go off shorter than this so I do sniff a bit of value. Generally consistent which is a huge plus in a claiming race as weights and ratings compared this one looks to have a few pounds on most of the rest.

Kirsty Milczarek is a very decent pilot, on the AW has won 1 in 10 of her races and placed in 1 in 3, no worries at all with her on board.

..... little bit on the place since the drift set in....Opus Maximus 1.9 €6.00 tbp

6.10 W'ton Cadgers Brig 10.5 €6.00 to win and tbp €4 at SP
Fairly trappy 3yo 0 to 60 12f HC, this one has a CD 3rd off 56 (today's mark too) on the bag, was beaten over 4l that day, but by the topweight, rated 60 who was 9/4 and got 7lbs for it. Small stakes for a poor race.




7.10 W'ton Princess Gail 5.9 €7.00 to win and tbp Princess Gail 2.15 €4.0
Another woeful enough race, Princess Gail has placitis but is consistent over the trip here and the rest don't have that, could well be one or two better but the guts of 5 to 1 is a fair enough price so another small wager for this one.

Huntey

Fantastic stuff James, great streak of form you are on.

I don't know how you do it, I couldn't pick my nose on the AW not to mind a horse! :pac:

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.30 W'ton Opus Maximus 4.37 €15.00 backed to win..................

RoverJames wrote: »

..... little bit on the place since the drift set in....Opus Maximus 1.9 €6.00 tbp

Won

RoverJames wrote: »

6.10 W'ton Cadgers Brig 10.5 €6.00 to win and tbp €4 at SP...................................

7.10 W'ton Princess Gail 5.9 €7.00 to win and tbp Princess Gail 2.15 €4.0
.............

Won and 8th


+€102.92 today

Huntey wrote: »

Fantastic stuff James, great streak of form you are on.

I don't know how you do it, I couldn't pick my nose on the AW not to mind a horse! :pac:

Thank you very much It is an unusually good spell, tbh I didn't put the last two on the OLBG as I reckoned I was due some losers :pac:

I've always loved the AW, went to a meeting in Kempton with Dad about five years ago. I love NH too but I find the AW much easier to make sense of for whatever reason, the consistency in the surface plays a huge part no doubt. I really enjoy studying AW form though.

Derek!

Nice to see all your research pay off man very impressed and a bit jealous lol

Thank you too Derek, much appreciated

All the kind words are fantastic, what I love about this place though is that there was not one negative comment posted when the log was going poorly enough for the few months prior to November.

Derek!

Bad times are to be expected in this game, but thankfully people like yourself who put in the work find the value that more than makes up for the losses

It sure beats the hell out of takin odds on shots in football!

Derek!

Derek! wrote: »

.............

It sure beats the hell out of takin odds on shots in football!

Been there done that :pac:

5.50 W'ton Bianca De Medici 2.32 €5.0 tbp and to win €10 at 7.6

Topweight here off 74 in this 0 to 75 7f HC, has a course and distance win in the recent ish past, winning a 0 to 70 off 70, won that reasonably comfortably.
That was it's only run here so far, 4 other AW starts and a 2nd and a 3rd from them. similar record on turf. Priced fairly enough if the horse has a preference for W'ton so it's a chance worth taking I reckon.

7.20 W'ton Ceremonial Jade 28 €5.00 to win and tbp Ceremonial Jade 6 €4.00.

Price far too big for this one off 93 in this 0 to 95 7f race. Ceremonial Jade was running ok off almost a stone more in the early part of 2010 and as an 8 year old should be well able to make a decent fist of this if the jockey is any way capable, if it wasn't for the jockey I'd be putting more on tbh. No doubt she is well able though in fairness.

8.50 W'ton
Monahullan Prince 11 €10.00 & Monahullan Prince 12 €4.00 to win and tbp Monahullan Prince 3.4 €4.38

Aside from Monahullan Prince only two of the field have ever ran into a place here at Wolverhampton, admittedly a fair few have never had a spin here but I feel course experience is a decent feather in the bow here.

Red Current came 2nd over CD off a mark of 57 so is in with a shout no doubt so too the Drunken Dr who won a 14f race here off a mark of 52, neither appeals to me though.

Monahullan Prince won here off a mark of 68 two years ago in a 0 to 85 HC, there were only four runners that day. Back than Monahullan Prince hurdles rating was similar enough to what it is today, Monahullan Prince won a HC hurdle easily in late October so is still well capable, interestingly Monahullan Prince now goes off a mark of 54 in this 0 to 65

Got a few pounds rise for that win in the NH sphere and seems anchored by it but off such a low mark here and seemingly in decent enough condition the price looks very tempting among a field with no real course specialists

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

5.50 W'ton Bianca De Medici 2.32 €5.0 tbp and to win €10 at 7.6.....................

RoverJames wrote: »

7.20 W'ton Ceremonial Jade 28 €5.00 to win and tbp Ceremonial Jade 6 €4.00...................

RoverJames wrote: »

8.50 W'ton
Monahullan Prince 11 €10.00 & Monahullan Prince 12 €4.00 to win and tbp Monahullan Prince 3.4 €4.38................

None placed.

-€42.38 today
Clean sweep of fail, 'twas due I suppose.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

.................

Follow the Flag has a decent AW history, 8 wins, 8 2nds and 8 3rds from 50 appearances. Follow the Flag is also a course and distance winner which as ye know I like, not in too bad form of late and is down to a mark of 73, which is pretty good imo as Follow the Flag won a 0 to 85 off 82 at Lingfield in February.

......................

Bit of value anyway with Follow the Flag I think.

2.00 Lingfield Follow The Flag 14 €5.00 and €5 at Betfair SP

The quote saves me re typing some of the mumbo jumbo :pac:
Down to 71 now after that poor W'ton 10th, has two CD wins to it's name here, off 76 and 82 in Class 4 HCs, worth another try I feel at a still juicy price

....9.2 now on betfair, should have been happy with the 14 ish :rolleyes: