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Horses......... lots of lays
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2.10 Lingfield Ivory Silk 14 €5.48 & 14.5 €1.52 and tbp
Ivory Silk 5 €4.0
Hard to gauge is it better to take a price or wait till later but I'm not at liberty to be checking prices all morning and I reckon Ivory Silk will go off shorter than this so I'm happy to play at this price, it is value me thinks
14 runner 0 to 85 7f HC, Ivory Silk runs off 78 which is the same as lto which was here over course and distance in a similar race, finished 7th that day beaten a few lengths but was making decent progress late on and has a chance greater than the price if delivered to best effect :cool:
Some boring stats, Ivory Silk has had 29 AW ventures, winning 5, finishing 2nd in 6 and 3rd in 4 of them, so placed over 50% of the time
Focusing on 7f spins at Lingfield it's 5 runs, results as follows............. 7, 1, 1, 10 and 3rd. Both of the victories were in handicap company, the 7th was also (lto) and the other two were in maiden company so quite binnable really :pac:
Lto to me, showed that the mark of 78 wasn't an issue as Ivory Silk had plenty in the tank for the run home, there was a tad too much ground to make up though. A couple of tomorrow's competitors finished ahead of Ivory Silk that day, doesn't worry me either, same logic as the mark of 78, if the run is timed right with not too much ground to make up Ivory Silk can reverse placings with Wilfred Pickles and Judd Street me thinks.
Amitola is up 3lbs for CD win and has obvious chances to extend the winning record here after that CD debut win, Ivory Silk's price is too tempting though
5.0 tbp is fantastic value, €4 is enough on it though for me.0 -
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I see we went for the same horse :cool:
Indeed, great minds Derek
I'm a tad nervous about Requisite tbh but Sutton Veny looks a solid choice, considering the price I got on Requisite last week I'd want close to 20.0 on Betfair tbh for tomorrow's race and I don't see that happening.
I have another €6.96 to be matched too...0 -
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RoverJames wrote: ».............
I have another €6.96 to be matched too...
unmatched
€6 at 5.3 matched0 -
7.00 Kempton Thoughtsofstardom 6.67 €6.00 tbp and to win Thoughtsofstardom 28 €8
Taking a chance on this veteran seeing out the 6f at full pelt but well worth it in this class7 0 to 50 as it's a weal enough race.
Thoughtsofstardom performed decently at Lingfield over this trip in March off 50 in a 0 to 60, finishing 3rd, beaten by just over 1/2 length, not really worth looking at the older runs in any detail but overall AW profile isn't bad, should run at a decent pace here and may well hold out 'till the line given the lack of serious opposition, jockey is decent too so I have no fears in that regard.
Now there's a decent chance that the line may not come soon enough so to compensate for that I'm placing a little lay for in running...
Thoughtsofstardom
Ref:
Total bet 3 €25.0 0 -
RoverJames wrote: »6.30 Kempton Sutton Veny 2.6 €4.00 tbp and to win Sutton Veny 7.6 €3.04...................RoverJames wrote: »unmatched
€6 at 5.3 matched
4th or 5thRoverJames wrote: »7.00 Kempton Thoughtsofstardom 6.67 €6.00 tbp and to win Thoughtsofstardom 28 €8.....................
Thoughtsofstardom
Ref:
Total bet 3 €25.0
Was prominent, faded well before the run for home, in running lay not matched.
-€27.04 today0 -
5.40 W'ton Fleetwoodsands 7.8 €10.0 to win
0 to 65 over 7f, Fleetwoodsands won a 0 to 65 here off 65 in Sep '10 quite easily by over a length as a 3 year old. On the 14th Nov came 3rd over a furlong and a bit longer off 62 in another o to 65 here, obvious claims off 61 here over the more suitable trip. Price is more than reasonable I think 0 -
6.40 W'ton Celtic Step 28 €5.00
This one is madly overpriced I reckon in this 9 1/2f 0 to 60.
Was a nose 2nd over course and distance off 57 in a 0 to 65 on 15th Oct when having to switch on the run in, a clear run could well have yielded a victory.
Since than was also seen in a 0 to 70 here where it finished 5th off 58 in a 0 to 70 which was obviously a stronger race.
Neither of those performances were surprising as the Dec 09 3rd off 65 in a 0 to 70 did indicate the talent was there.
I've ignored all woeful performances, of which there are many
7.10 W'ton Brouhaha 13.5 €10
2nd to Raucous Behavior lto over CD off 80 in a 0 to 85, 3lb to reverse that 3/4l defeat and I reckon Brouhaha can do so and also be in with a fair chance to beat the rest of the field too.
My ole buddy from November, William Haugh goes here and is fancied in the market but I would be slow to back him at the price as along with a 6lb rise also has an extra 3f to contend with. I reckoned the step up in trip was a huge potential plus lto but another 3f on top of that is beyond my knowledge to have an opinion on when, especially at 4.6 ish.
Dark Dune, is also too short imo.
Brouhaha offers CD experience combined with a decent price 0 -
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RoverJames wrote: »5.40 W'ton Fleetwoodsands 7.8 €10.0 to win
.............RoverJames wrote: »6.40 W'ton Celtic Step 28 €5.00
................
7.10 W'ton Brouhaha 13.5 €10 ....................RoverJames wrote: »8.30 Dundalk Piece Dor 32 €10.00 backed to win and tbp Piece Dor 6.6 €5.00................
None even placed, RacingPost.com seems to be down so no detail other than that
William Haigh got the hat trick, which was nice in a way despite me not being on, I think he may be an AW specialist
-€40 today0 -
2.55 Southwell Follow The Flag 5.9 €20.00 and also €5 win at Betfair SP.
Have backed this one recently over shorter trips so I was initially reckoning the run here may be in order to get the rating down, however after going back to 2010 form I think that may well not be the case
This is an 8 runner, 11f 0 to 75 HC, Follow The Flag tackles it off 71.
Follow The Flag has some incredibly decent turf form over 10f trips, the extra furlong here may well not be an inconvenience, apologies again but a lazy copy and paste from the RP site is easier than a bla bla bla...
11Aug10 Bev 10GF C3Hc 4K 9-6 7/13 (2¾L Jonny Lesters Hair 9-4) p 14/1 Declan Cannon 87
class 3 only beaten 2 3/4l, was staying on rather than fading towards home............
20Jun10 Pon 10GF C3Hc 6K 9-7 2/10 (2¾L Arizona John 9-4) p 11/1 Declan Cannon 85....
similar story, was not fading as such............
13May10 Nmk 10GF C3Hc 7K 8-6 1/10 (¾L Sohcahtoa 9-1) p 16/1 Declan Cannon 82 * *
08May10 Thi 12Gd C4Hc 5K 8-13 5/11 (9½L Destinys Dream 8-5) p 9/1 Conor Quish 82 * *
01May10 Don 10GF C4Hc 4K 8-5 1/9 (2L Thunderstruck 8-9) p 6/1 Conor Quish 78
............ the Thirsk run was a stretch over the 12f and Follow the flag did weaken in the final furlong.
those races were decent turf HCs, class 3s some of them.
The surface here doesn't pose a problem (course winner and placed more than a couple of times from not too many runners) and I do like Winston being on board, he has gotten a decent tune out of Follow the flag frequently, even over 12f !!0 -
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2.30 Southwell Ingleby Arch 4.9 €10.00 and €5 at SP
7f Class 6 claiming stakes.
The fav Jobe doesn't have the credentials to match the price imo, rated 84 and a CD winner but early in November contested that CD race rated 78, admittedly Jobe won but that race wasn't very strong, admittedly at the weights etc Jobe was poorly enough treated with the other horses.
Ingleby Arch on the other hand tackles this rated 77 and carrying 4lbs less than Jobe, so Jobe has 3lbs on Ingleby Arch, looking at it on the suface I can see why the market has them priced up as they are, and no doubt folks will see Jobe as a good thing
Ingleby Arch though was a classy enough animal, contesting very decent races off much higher marks in the not too distant past (I won't bother with the copy and pastes or the bla bla bla on this occasion, 'tis Sunday :pac: ) , 7f may seem to be out of bounds as a victory over the trip has never been achieved but in this company even against a market leader who is proven over the trip I reckon the guts of 4/1 is more than enough to have a wager.
Is 8 years a concern? Not in a class 6 claiming stakes tbh.0 -
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RoverJames wrote: »2.30 Southwell Ingleby Arch 4.9 €10.00 and €5 at SP
7f Class 6 claiming stakes.
The fav Jobe doesn't have the credentials to match the price imo, rated 84 and a CD winner but early in November contested that CD race rated 78, admittedly Jobe won but that race wasn't very strong, admittedly at the weights etc Jobe was poorly enough treated with the other horses.
Ingleby Arch on the other hand tackles this rated 77 and carrying 4lbs less than Jobe, so Jobe has 3lbs on Ingleby Arch, looking at it on the suface I can see why the market has them priced up as they are, and no doubt folks will see Jobe as a good thing
Ingleby Arch though was a classy enough animal, contesting very decent races off much higher marks in the not too distant past (I won't bother with the copy and pastes or the bla bla bla on this occasion, 'tis Sunday :pac: ) , 7f may seem to be out of bounds as a victory over the rep has never been achieved but in this company even against a market leader who is proven over the trip I reckon the guts of 4/1 is more than enou
h to have a wager.
Is 8 years a concern? Not in a class 6 claiming stakes tbh.
Fair play jammers. Was goin through my emails half an hour ago and I must have posted in this thread at some stage cause i'm subscribed to it!
Found this one and said what the hell i'll give ingleby a go. Good timing.0 -
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2.15 W'ton Kidlat 9 €3.30 and €4 at SP too
Have backed this one before, without success I may add back in October, finished 4th that day off 77 in a 0 to 80 over a furlong shorter. The race after that Kidlat had a spin at Kempton over this trip in a 0 to 85 again off 77, was beaten under 3l that day.
Three poor efforts than at W'ton over the 9f trip and now we have a mark of 72 in this 0 to 75 over the guts of 10f which may well be just the shot.
Only 7 runners so the price is quite reasonable
It is an apprentice race and the jockey is Natasha Eaton, 6 wins from 64 AW spins is not a bad record at all, 2 from 22 for 2011, a 3rd 2011 AW win tomorrow for Natasha would be lovely
It's a hands and heels effort so I'm hoping the tumbling in the weight Kidlat can out in a decent shift against mostly exposed rivals who haven't achieved as much. I have a niggle that 10f at Kempton would be more suitable but Kidlat has ran well ish here before too and I haven't gone mad with the stake either :pac:0
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