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Horses......... lots of lays
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The Irish Riddler wrote: »I only have a passing interest in the ponies. How much do you focus in on the strength of a horses previous race? Do you evaluate the horses from a previous race as well as the previous horses from the upcoming competitors races? As in looking at up to 100 horses for each race?
Can you give an example of how you price up a race as I have no idea where to start?
I'm essentially a horses for courses type punter, give a horse the conditions it likes and it might run to it's best form. I reckon the going is a huge factor which is why I have been focussing on the AW and intend to continue doing so. Soft and heavy are a tad broad ranging for me, good to firm and firm are generally indicative enough of what the ground is like in fairness.
I do evaluate what the horses ran against in previous races but not in any great depth, for instance Italian Tom (today's pick) contested races of 0 to 85 standard and those finishing ahead were higher rated. The racingpost.com allows lots to be gleamed at a glance.
I price up horses crudely enough, I go through the race first and make my list of horses with chances, I would rate them in order of how I rate them. If there is 5 of them I'd consider 6/1 or over a decent price. If there were 8 runners in a race I'd consider over 8/1 looney value, I don't price up races as such though
I generally only have a peak at handicaps and stay away from nursery ones and exclusively 3yo races too as I don't like them.0 -
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6.30 Kempton Sermons Mount 14.54 €4.0 and €4 at SP
7f 0 to 75 14 runner handicap, nasty enough looking to be honest but I'm still having a little bet.
Sermons Mount has had 6 efforts over 7f here and was placed in 5 of them, the one which resulted in being unplaced was a maiden some time back, I'm happy to place little emphasis on maidens.
Recent efforts off similar HC marks in CD 0 to 75s have yielded almosts, not beaten much and the impression I have is that with some luck a win at this level is obtainable.
The main worry is the poor draw but at Kempton over 7f many horses overcome that so I'm not overly concerned, if Sermons Mount gets out ok and isn't too far back the chance is decent, Sermons Mount won't be winning by speeding up the straight making up 15l in the final furlong, he doesn't have that turn of foot.
13/1 is a decent price for a horse that has been very close consistently over the conditions and in similar class races.
I'm going split stakes as I often do 0 -
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7.00 Kempton Grand Honour 15 €9.61 & €0.39 at 15.5 and tbp 5 €4.0
Very chunky price for the only course and distance winner in the field, down to a mark of 46 in this 0 to 50 7f HC.
Grand Honour came 2nd here in Feb 09 in a 3yo 0 to 85 HC off 75, prior to that in Dec 08 another 2nd off 78 was achieved in a 0 to 85 2yo race.
Things haven't gone as well as those runs pointed to since but as recent as Feb off a mark of 51 a CD 3rd was achieved in a 0 to 55, beaten less than two lengths and both of the horses ahead wouldn't get into this race (both topweights in the 0 to 55)
sooooooooooooooooo a return to previous form would be more than enough to win this and the price is incredibly decent 0 -
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2.45 Southwell Seamster 11.5 €5 and €5 at SP.
Could well go off lots bigger but I'd be afraid not to take the 11.5 as I reckon it's very decent value in this 7f 0 to 55 classified stakes at Southwell.
Seamster has some nice course and distance form, winning a 0 to 70 4 runner 3yo HC off 67 back in Jan'10. Hasn't raced much since but lto at W'ton over the longer 9f trip some definite promise was shown off 58, beaten well by almost 6 lengths but not until the final furlong or so, back here over the shorter trip I think the chance of going in is very decent.
The marker leader, Dashing Eddie runs on the same terms as Seamster but has never ran here before at Southwell, the rest of them are a poor looking lot, Seamster, 4lbs lower than the relatively decent 9f attempt at W'ton makes plenty of appeal to me. At 10/1 Seamster is about twice the odds I reckon it should be 0 -
RoverJames wrote: »............. At 10/1 Seamster is about twice the odds I reckon it should be
Tad under 5/1 on Betfair now0 -
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****in hell man, that's great pickin
The jockey was the main factor to be honest, after winning last time out I reckoned the horse must like her or something, I know nothing about horses as such but presumably some horses like some jockeys styles or something, 'tis great seeing apprentice jockeys win races 0 -
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5.50 W'ton Its Dubai Dolly
Ref: xxxxxxxxxxxx Bet placed: 17:29 16-Dec-11
€4.00
Going SP here as this one might drift like my selection in the 4.50 too.
Anyway, mile and 1/2 f 0 to 50 race, Its Dubai Dolly has been racing over longer trips unsuccessfully but has been prominent for most of them so this shorter race might just be the trick.
Back as a 2yo 8 ish f seemed the suitable so amongst this class of opposition Its Dubai Dolly may well have enough fire power to last home.
6.50 W'ton Straversjoy 13 €7.00 Straversjoy 3.71 €4.00 tbp
Might seem to have it do do but on peak form has a decent chance, won a 0 to 65 off 61 as a 3yo this time last year, admittedly hasn't been great off higher marks but deserves consideration here at this price when topweight I think.
Realistically after the first two winning these two probably won't be one never knows 0 -
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1.50 Lingfield Mabait €10 at 9.2 and €4 at 3.1 tbp
Unimaginative selection as this is the horse best off at the weights and ratings but the price surprises me and I can't quite see why it's so big.
Mabait has at least a few pounds on the rest of these, has dead heated over the trip on turf with a horse rated 6lbs better in Jul '10 and is 2 wins and a third from 5 AW spins.
The wins were at W'ton over a furlong shorter and recent Meydan form isn't great but that was a Group3 that the rest of the field here wouldn't be running in.
I'm backing the class to shine through
3.30 Lingfield Triple Dream €7 at 8.2 and €5 at SP
5f 0 to 70 HC, Triple Dream is topweight here.
Has never won from 12 AW spins but this is a decent opportunity me thinks, two runs ago was 2nd at Kempton off 68 over 5f in a similar race, got 3lbs for that and ran at W'ton, finishing 3rd in a 0 to 75, beaten only a length and a half, over 2l clear of the 5th placed horse.
Triple Dream must be in with a great shout after knocking on the door recently and topweight in a 0 to 70 appears a decent place to try while in good form.0 -
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4.15 Kempton Hecton Lad 10.5 €10.00 and tbp €4 3.18
Bit of value here I think in this 8f 0 to 65, Hecton Lad won a 0 to 60 at Lingfield off 57 by a length, came 2l 3rd over CD here off 62 in a 0 to 70 and was then woeful lto off 64 in 0 to 65 of today's quality, that woeful run gives the value here, you can't expect a horse to run to it's best all or even most of the time Of course, running to their best is all you can hope them to do and if Hecton Lad does so today the price is far too big, 10 runners so over 9/1 after Betfair take their 5% of any potential winners is more than value I think, nothing wrong with coming out of stall 4 here either. Hecton Lad is 2 wins and 2 thirds from 10 AW ventures.
Regarding the 1.40, Bubbly Braveheart appealed to me last night, this morning the prices available were short but at 9.4 I'm interested again
Bubbly Braveheart 9.44 €5.00 and tbp Bubbly Braveheart 3 €4.0
CD 2nd off 60 in a 0 to 65 in Nov'10, got up to a mark of 66, back to 60 here in this 0 to 60 over the suitable, 10f trip and drawn well.
AW profile is 4 wins, 5 2nds and 2 3rds from 24 spins 0 -
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5.20 W'ton Triple Eight 12 €4
It might well be that the handicapper has this one nabbed but one never knows with 3 year olds (well I don't anyway :pac: ).
Triple Eight contests this 8 1/2f 0 to 75 HC off a mark of 74 after coming 2nd lto here earlier in the month in a 0 to 75 7f HC off 71, that was Triple Eight's best run in a handicap. Triple Eight started off with a mark of just shy of 100 and has been losing the pounds since than, the 3lb rise might well prove insignificant. Triple Eight finished the 7f trip well although weakened over a f out when tackling 9 1/2f here in November off 77 in a 0 to 80.
I think that things might well be falling into place for this one 0 -
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