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Horses......... lots of lays
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9thRoverJames wrote: »2.25 W'ton Ivory Silk 16.5 €9.75
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2ndRoverJames wrote: »6.45 Kempton Cheylesmore 22 €5.0..........RoverJames wrote: »7.15 Kempton Gazboolou 8.4 €8.0 and tbp
Gazboolou 2.68 €3.95..........
4th
-€26.70 today
That's me done till the 26th
Happy Christmas to all posters and readers and thank you to boards.ie for facilitating my log :cool:0 -
RJ's back for one more pre Christmas bet :pac:
Spotted a potentially hugely overpriced yoke at Dundalk and considering the price it must go in here
7.00 Dundalk Miss Martinstown 16 €5.0 and tbp Miss Martinstown 3.8 €4.0
Miss Martinstown racing off 55 in this 47 to 65 8f handicap is 7lbs lower than when finishing 3 1/2l 4th of 12 here over CD in a 3 yo Handicap last year, only one run since than and it was poor but the price compensates and if firing at all should be in with a shout.
I don't fancy the fav, Cool Athlete, up 3lbs for a CD win lto in which there was only 2l covering the first six home.
Price is tumbling so the value is diminishing with it, very happy with the 16.00 -
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2.15 W'ton Kingswinford 7.65 €10.00
Looks like value to me, hard to gauge without early markets though.
Kingswinford has had only 3 AW spins, the most recent finishing 3rd here in a claimer back in October, wasn't a bad effort to be fair....
« 1 6 Dialogue 7/2 5 8-13 Ollie Pears 85 * * »
Michael O'Connell3
Slowly into stride, held up, headway over 2f out, ran on to lead well inside final furlong, comfortably (op 6-1)
« 2 1 2¼ Zomerlust 16/1 9 9-2 v John Quinn 82 * *
P B Beggy
Led, ridden over 1f out, headed and unable to quicken well inside final furlong
« 3 7 hd Kingswinford (IRE) 7/2 5 8-9 Brian Ellison 79 * * »
Paul Pickard3
Held up, headway over 3f out, ridden to chase leader over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, stayed on same pace (op 11-4)
« 4 8 3 Benandonner (USA) 9/4F 8 9-5 Mike Murphy 89 * * »
Kieren Fallon
Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong (op 5-2)
Beaten 2 1/2 lengths, winner was rated 6lbs better and was carrying 4lbs more so has 2lbs on Kingswinford, horse in 2nd who was only a head in front was rated 3lbs better but was carrying 7lbs more so did well relative to Kingswinford. Kingswinford finished ahead of the fav though, by 3l, and the fav was rated 10lbs better and was carrying 10lbs more. In my book of racing logic Kingswinford did well in that race.
7 furlong suits Kingswinford and with at least a few lbs on the rest of these with the surface not being a disadvantage I see the price as being too big (I can't see 5 other horses with a rationale chance in this) 0 -
2.55 W'ton Follow The Flag 17 €2.0, €2 at 17.5 & €2 at 19.
I've backed this one once or twice before, back over 9f now and the price available was too big not to have another go today, do remember folks this log is simply about me making cash from a tiny initial bank and isn't a tipping service or anything akin to it, I wouldn't be backing Follow the Flag at the 12.0 available now
Anyway after some terrible runs Follow The Flag got into form recently over 11f at Southwell off 71, got 6lbs for that and went lto over 12f and finished 2nd.
Now running off 80 Follow The Flag tackles the 9f trip, earlier this year Follow The Flag won a 0 to 85 off 82 at Lingfield over 8f, the extra furlong here isn't a concern and if Follow The Flag is still in racing mood can definitely have a say in this.
Follow The Flag is at a mark that makes winning a challenge but this race isn't too hot, the market leader, Gritstone also has it to do after another rise in the weights and the field doesn't look particularly great. 16/1 is far too big anyway :cool:0 -
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3.35 Southwell Avertis €4.00 at SP, 13 €1.36, 14 €3.95 & 13.5 €2.64
Also €4 tbp at SP
One for the horses for courses train of thought in this 0 to 75 8f race.
Avertis has a decent CD record, from 6 runs Avertis has won twice, finished 3rd twice and ran woefully twice
The wins were off 75 in a 0 to 75 in Nov08 and off 75 in a 0 to 75 in Dec09.
The 3rds were off 80 in a 0 to 86 in Sep 09 and off 79 in a 0 to 85 in Nov09.
Last win came on turf at Epsom in Jul2010 off 73 in a 0 to 80, recent form hasn't been too bad and I think a big run might be on the cards over the suitable trip and surface off a mark of 70 which is more than feasible for this 6 year old who is the veteran of this young field, only 10 career starts though
Leonna Mayor onboard today, in great form she is too, a win a 2nd and a third from the last 3 runs in over the last fortnight, overall profile not bad at all and she is more than capable of steering Avertis home if things drop right.0 -
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Just an example of value, I'm always blowing on about it, the 5.20 in W'ton Pilgrim Dancer caught my eye formwise, 14/1 in the RP price guide, very interested, 3.9 fav on Betfair, not interested
It's a 0 to 50 7f race, Pilgrim Dancer was only beaten by a tad over 2l off 58 in a 0 to 60 CD race in July, since then hasn't ran over 7f on the AW, down to 50 today, also topweight. Pilgrim Dancer won a CD 0 to 60 off 55 in January, the sort of form that I love to back, not at the price though, I'd want 5/1 at least.
In a 12 runner race with lots of 3 year old horses (hard to evaluate what they've done against what they are capable of) with a few course winners and some who have won over the trip 3/1 is too short for me
Might well romp home though.0 -
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RoverJames wrote: »2.00 Southwell Carnac €10 at 5.4
At times it's hard to know what course and trip is ideal for a horse, I reckon the 14f suits Carnac but course wise I wasn't at al sure, defo seems to like the AW, a win, 5 2nds and 3 4th from 22 spins isn't too bad overall, not a wonderful strike rate of wins but place wise quite decent. Carnac has been a non runner twice in recent weeks at W'ton so caught my eye entered in this and hopefully running in it. Southwell form reads a win, 3 2nds and a 3rd from 11 runs. Focusing on 14f races here limits the history to two runs, resulting in that win and a 2nd.
The win was off 50 in a 0 to 55 and the 2nd was also off 50 in a 0 to 65, the fav was topweight that day and won at 5/2.
This is a poor race which shouldn't take much winning, I don't like the look of many of them, Decana appeals to an extent but that's about it other than Carnac, that considered anything over 3/1 I'd class as very decent value, Carnac isn't in too bad from these days and connections seemed to be waiting for this opportunity for 14f around here.
Fingers crossed.
Recent form is something I often ignore as it brings about price shrinkage if it's decent, Carnac was beaten the last time I backed him but than won next time out at 15/8 (I wasn't on as the price was too short)
Carnac then ran well again after that win and now tackles this 2 mile contest (2.00 Southwell) off 4 lbs higher than when winning over CD 2 runs ago, interestingly he's a very decent price
Carnac is a game horse and although this 0 to 70 is a classier affair than the recent CD win if on from can be trusted to put in a very gutsy performance, 2m races here often appear to be an awful ole slog and Carnace is up to the job
Carnac 12 €10 & tbp Carnac 3.3 €4.000 -
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6.40 W'ton Justcallmehandsome 12.5 €9.00 and tbp 3.95 €4.0
I've nothing against backing veterans and this one has gone in recently, back up to 65 which on the face of it is a tall order these days but back in October Justcallmehandsome racing off 61 in a 0 to 75 ran well without being placed, most of those who finished ahead are too good for this race.
Same story last time out off 65 in a 0 to 75 so at the price has a decent chance in this weaker race 0 -
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