Horses......... lots of lays

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.15 Lingfield Even Bolder 8 €15 ...........

2nd

-€15 today

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

November concludes on a positive note + €438.64

Total from Sun 19th June to today....
Total P&L: €1166.81

€1,239.72 in the bank now


November had no lays placed and all bets were on the AW surfaces, big change in tactics really.

That's December done and dusted, December total + €191.24

Total from Sun 19th June to today....
Total P&L: €1358.05

€1,430.96 in the bank now

1.20 Southwell Monsieur Jamie 8.8 €10

This one is overpriced in my eyes.

What about You has clear claims but is making it's Southwell debut so that puts a big question mark over the chances.

Evens Stevens was victorious lto beating Monsieur Jamie over CD but has got a 6lb rise for that which is quite reasonable and in this 0 to 95 there isn't a rival at a similar mark. Even Stevens is also 3 wins from 3 runs over 5f here.

Monsieur Jamie however appeals at the price, from 7 5f Southwell runs has won 4 times and come 2nd twice, also unseating once but such is life. Monsieur Jamie tackles this off the same mark as lto and having 2 lengths to find has the benefit of Even Stevens carrying 6lbs more, the price as mentioned is the major factor.

Generally horses confirm form over one another over the same conditions regardless of the handicapper's efforts but not always, I think this race will be a case of not always, hopefully.

3.35 Southwell Bentley 11.5 €5.00 and €4 at Betfair SP, tbp 3.3 €2.20 & 3.35 €2.10

Bentley's AW mark is now down to 55, back in June Bentley contested two turf handicaps off over 8f off a mark of 54, Bentley finished 2nd in both. The first was a 0 to 70 on GS, Bentley was beaten by a length and a half, the second was a 0 to 65 on soft, Bentley was beaten 5l, the rest of the field were beaten by more of course.

Since then Bentley hasn't had easy ground on turf so results are not too good, also Bentley has been running over longer trips on the AW so again results are poor with Bentley weakening furlongs from home.

Going back to the early part of 2011 though Bentley was running very well here over 8f, 2 wins from five races and being placed in the other three off marks of between 58 and 65, the fifth one of those was a 0 to 70 contested off 65.

Back to a mark of 55 in this 0 to 55 over the ideal trip at Southwell Bentley has an excellent chance.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

1.20 Southwell Monsieur Jamie 8.8 €10

..................

RoverJames wrote: »

3.35 Southwell Bentley 11.5 €5.00 and €4 at Betfair SP, tbp 3.3 €2.20 & 3.35 €2.10..............

Both unplaced and rather awful really.
-€23.30 today.

In unrelated news, William Haigh (backed him twice in Nov) won again, another unreal performance, couldn't contemplate backing him at 3/1 ish though.

12.15 Southwell Divertimenti 12.5 €0.81, 12.5 €2.23 & 13 €0.71
(€3.75 to win €43.48)

5f 0 to 60 HC, Divertimenti tackles off a mark of 57.

Two runs ago Divertimenti finished 5th off 58 in a 0 to 65, wasn't a bad effort, last time out over a furlong longer was a poor effort though, fading badly.

In September Divertimenti won a 0 to 65 over 6f on turf off a mark of 60, Divertimenti had that won before the furlong pole.

Nafa has obvious chances but I don't think this race has many contenders so i'm happy to have the little dabble on Divertimenti at the guts of 12/1 ish.

I overslept today, last night I placed a bet that wasn't matched, it was matched overnight, it was €4 at 40.0 on Treacle Tart in the 12.50, unplaced anyway, if it had won it would be a tad messy but seems as it lost I want to include that €4 in my log, ok I hope.

Moving on.............

2.55 Southwell El Dececy 2.91 €5.00 to be placed and to win El Dececy 7.2 €10.0

On last time out's run El Dececy is in great form, beaten just a quarter of a length (yet easily) by the 72 rated 13/8 fav in a 0 to 70 over course and distance off 67, raised 3lbs for that but won over 8f here off 73 in December 2010 in a 0 to 75 quite easily, 8 years old but this one's game is all about getting to the front and staying there 'till the line so 6f I think is suitable, admittedly Carson will need to be at his best to manage resources but that applies to most horses and the price is decent.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

12.15 Southwell Divertimenti 12.5 €0.81, 12.5 €2.23 & 13 €0.71
(€3.75 to win €43.48).................

RoverJames wrote: »

I overslept today, last night I placed a bet that wasn't matched, it was matched overnight, it was €4 at 40.0 on Treacle Tart in the 12.50,...................

2.55 Southwell El Dececy 2.91 €5.00 to be placed and to win El Dececy 7.2 €10.0...................
.

All unplaced, -€22.75 today

3.00 Southwell Bookiesindex Boy 15.5 €4.0

0 to 75 5f handicap Bookiesindex Boy is the bottomweight, rated 62.

The last race Bookiesindex Boy won was over 5f here at Southwell too, that was in February off 72 in a 0 to 75, since than there has been little success, including a number of course and distance efforts. However this seems a fairly weak race, I give Love you Louis a series chance on best form but that horse was last seen tailed off 6 months ago so isn't really a viable option.

Bookiesindex Boy is a far better animal on the AW than on turf and two of the five AW victories were at Southwell over the 5f trip, there has also been a number of placed efforts.

The stake is modest but the potential return is juicy.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.00 Southwell Bookiesindex Boy 15.5 €4.0

..............

6th

-€4 today

12.50 Lingfield Choral 16.5 €2.09 & 17 €2.91

Choral has tacked 7f twice on the AW surfaces, the first spin over 7f was here at Lingfield in a maiden, which Choral won at 1/3 fav.

The second time was at Kempton in a 0 to 85 off 73 with a 3yo weight allowance, Choral finished 3rd that day beaten by a length and a half.

Choral than tried the longer 8f trip at Kempton in a 0 to 75 off the same mark again finishing 3rd, beaten by almost 3l but I reckon that day coming off the rail before it opened lost a bit of ground, at Kempton the rail is the place to be.

Choral now tackles this 0 to 75 here off the same mark, however things should be a bit tougher as Choral is now racing as a 4 year old, the price is looney big though in my head. Choral may well have benefited from a race free December.

7.00 Kempton Haafhd Handsome 11.5 €9.00

Nice bit of value here (potentially), Haafhd Handsome was strong in the betting for the last two starts but didn't quite deliver.

Lto 2nd to the evens fav in a 10f maiden contest here wasn't too bad, perhaps the 10f trip was a stretch of stamina, although the breeding would suggest that shouldn't be the case.

Prior to that Haafhd Handsome went off 2/1fav on turf in a decent enough maiden stakes.

The market leaders here have questions to answer, Mr Red Clubs is up 6lbs for a W'ton 7f win and Biba Diva is untried on both the AW and over 8f so neither appeal.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

12.50 Lingfield Choral 16.5 €2.09 & 17 €2.91

..................

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.00 Kempton Haafhd Handsome 11.5 €9.00

.............

3rd

-€14 today

BOHtox

RoverJames wrote: »

2nd

Luckily I had it e/w

Happy out , last night's place price on Betfair was smelly enough so I didn't take it.

6.10 W'ton La Estrella 5.6 €8 & 5.7 €3.97

Only 8 in this 2m 0 to 85 HC, La Estrella races off 89 after a nice CD win on 28 Dec, La Estrella is a classy horse, competing in class2 20f race on turf during the summer off a mark of 86 admittedly beaten nearly 4l.

La Estrella had a great run earlier in the year, rattling off 6 AW wins in succession at Southwell.

La Estrella from 24 runs has won 15 AW starts, coming second in another two and third in two more, decent profile that.

La Estrella has won four times around W'ton and clearly can stay the trip well, the price is too big for me to not back this AW specialist.

Exemplery, unraced since October is a clear danger who has won a similar race when fresh off a similar mark, I just think La Estrella has too much going in it's favour.


............. €5.17 at 2.16 tbp too

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.10 W'ton La Estrella 5.6 €8 & 5.7 €3.97
..........

............. €5.17 at 2.16 tbp too

Non runner

3.25 Lingfield Sherjawy 32 €3.81, was matched overnight and to be placed Sherjawy 4.5 €4.00

A 5f 0 to 65 HC, Sherjawy tackles the 9 runner race off 62.

The 70 rated 4 year old Royal Bajan may well be good enough to take this race before stepping up to contest better races but Sherjawy looks very very interesting.
Sherjawy won a 0 to 70 off 63 in January 2011 over this 5f trip at Kempton quite comfortably, five runs later Sherjawy was victorious again here at Lingfield in March in a 0 to 75 off 67, Sherjawy in May was running off a mark of 71 and has crept down to 62 again, recently though, in November off a mark of 65 Sherjawy was beaten less than 2l in a 0 to 75 at Kempton.

Sherjawy has a preference for the AW, 9 of the career wins being on the AW surfaces from 58 AW starts, also eight second places and six thirds.

A decent run is plausible and at the price is worth chancing.




5.45 Wolverhampton Restless Bay 24 €0.94 & 17 €4.00 and tbp Restless Bay 5.6 €4.0

13 runner 0 to 85 6f HC,the four year old Restless Bay is rated 77.

As with most of the horses I back Restless Bay has a decent record on the AW, four wins, four seconds and two thirds from 22 starts. Restless Bay won over CD in December in a 0 to 75 off 73 by under a length but I thought Restless Bay looked the sort to take a few pounds for the win and in both runs since Restless Bay though beaten has been within a few lengths of the winner, lto was 9th though, the time before 3rd.

The two runs since the win in my mind have provided the decent price for today's race and I'm happy to take my chances.

6.45 W'ton Rigid 14 €9.20 and tbp Rigid 3.5 €4

An admittedly trappy handicap but a decent case can be made for rigid. finished 2nd over CD in a 0 to 55 off 47 in September, beaten a length, not great next time out and unseen since on the AW, also up 2lbs but was in decent form before Christmas winning a hurdle race, if still in good spirits a repeat performance of the September form might well be enough to win this.

9.15 Dundalk Captain Henry 15 €8.00 and tbp Captain Henry 4.3 €4.00

A rare enough Dundalk wager, a CD winner in Nov, not great on two occasions since but in with a shout here if bouncing back to the form shown when winning, last effort not too much can be read into as the horse weakened and before that was an apprentice race.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.25 Lingfield Sherjawy 32 €3.81, was matched overnight and to be placed Sherjawy 4.5 €4.00

...................................



5.45 Wolverhampton Restless Bay 24 €0.94 & 17 €4.00 and tbp Restless Bay 5.6 €4.0...............

2nd and 6th

RoverJames wrote: »

6.45 W'ton Rigid 14 €9.20 and tbp Rigid 3.5 €4...............

4th

RoverJames wrote: »

9.15 Dundalk Captain Henry 15 €8.00 and tbp Captain Henry 4.3 €4.00................

4th

-€25.17 today

3.20 Lingfield Honey Of A Kitten 12.5 €10.00 & tbh Honey Of A Kitten 4 €4.00

8f seems ideal for this one, a win and two places from 3 8f starts in relatively strong company were achieved as a 2yo.

As a 3 year old was rated 95 and the AW surfaces aren't an unknown and don't seem to be too much of an inconvenience.


3.55 Lingfield Pipers Piping 10 €7.0
Decent AW performer, 6,9 & 4 for wins, seconds and thirds respectively from 46 AW starts. Is often competitive off this sort of mark in simialar races so is in with a definite shout.

2.45 capone 25 at 5.5, was too short earlier to back and too late for a write up.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.20 Lingfield Honey Of A Kitten 12.5 €10.00 & tbh Honey Of A Kitten 4 €4.00................


3.55 Lingfield Pipers Piping 10 €7.0..............

Both unplaced

RoverJames wrote: »

2.45 capone 25 at 5.5, was too short earlier to back and too late for a write up.

3rd, took ages to get going on the straight which I was surprised at as Capone's 6f record is mightily impressive.

-€46.00 today

3.20 Southwell Clear Ice 25.07 €8.00 and tbp Clear Ice 5.5 €4.00

I'm taking the price now as 25.0 seems very very generous for Clear Ice in this 0 to 75 6f handicap.

The last time Clear Ice put in a decent performance was in August on the turf, being beaten by a head over 6f at Epsom in a 0 to 85 off a mark of 73 by the 82 rated fav, Baldemer. The two races before that Clear Ice efforts were fairly woeful too so that's why the recent poor form doesn't worry me.

Clear Ice is a horse that seems to often run quite well or even win when having it's 3rd or 4th run in a period of a week or three so this being Clear Ice's 3rd run in less than three weeks I see as a positive.

As well as that decent run in August there have been other very good efforts off similar marks.....

05Aug11 Bri 6Gd C4Hc 7K 9-3 1/10 (hd Aye Aye Digby 9-11) b 13/2 Chris Catlin 70.... that was a 0 to 80, again on turf.

In fairness to Clear Ice the AW form isn't at all bad despite the highlights appearing on turf, 24 AW starts have brought 3 wins, 9 seconds and 4 3rds.

I'd like to see Clear Ice either leading from the start or tracking the leader(s) in this, if Clear Ice is out the back and held up I won't be expecting much of an effort as the race unfolds.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.20 Southwell Clear Ice 25.07 €8.00 and tbp Clear Ice 5.5 €4.00..............

6th -€12 today

4.25 W'ton Strictly Pink 9.4 €4.00 and also €4 at SP

Strictly Pink won a maiden over 7f almost a year ago and has been racing off marks over 70 since then until a month or so ago, dropping down a right few pounds but without success.

Over a trip and surface that suit however the price seems value, Chester Deelyte was very impressive winning last time out and may well continue in the winning way but no doubt has it to do, Perfect Act is like Strictly Pink down a right lash of pounds but the prices for both Strictly Pink and Chester Deelyte are prohibitively short.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.25 W'ton Strictly Pink 9.4 €4.00 and also €4 at SP

..............

Non-runner.
I hate that, very anti-climaxical, Chester Deelyte was 2nd, would be of interest in a weaker race at a bigger price, beaten a few lenghts too so a price of 7 or 8/1 might be on the cards next time out.

3.55 Southwell Podgies Boy 3.2 €4.00 tbp and to win Podgies Boy 11 €2.29

Not a huge amount on this one but there's not much liquidity at the price I'd deem reasonable so I'll settle for what I've on.

Podgies Boy is a 4 year old and may well have a little improvement up the sleeve among this lot. Podgies Boy won a maiden here at Southwell over the longer 8f trip but has also won twice at Lingfield over this 7f trip the last time off a mark of 74 in a 0 to 75.

Since than Podgies Boy has been running in class 4 0 to 85s and a 0 to 80 so the drop back in class to class 5 here may well be just the shot. Podgies Boy wasn't at all disgraced in any of those races but was beaten a few lengths + in them. In the 8f races it could have been the final furlong or the class of the opposition that was the issue or a combination of both, well worth risking the few quid on here though off 73 in this 0 to 75.

Chookie Avon and Biance De Medici to me seem to be weighed to find this a struggle, in fairness their prices aren't too short but they are tight enough.

€4 at 10.0 too to win.

UrbanSea

Nice shout James