Horses......... lots of lays

Cheers
First winner I've had since 18 Dec when Chester Deelyte won
Losing streaks, part of the fun I suppose.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.55 Southwell Podgies Boy 3.2 €4.00 tbp and to win Podgies Boy 11 €2.29.................

€4 at 10.0 too to win.

Won.
+€64.31 today

5.15 Kempton Best Trip 15.17 €6.00 and tbp Best Trip 4 €1.77 & 4.2 €2.23

Best Trip has quite a good deal going for it in this 0 to 85 5f handicap, in fact Best Trip has loads going for it except recent form.

Best Trip is a course and distance winner, winning a 0 to 75 off 73 in March'11 when co fav, that wasn't a one off decent run as in June Best Trip came 2nd to Mymummysaysimthebest off a mark of 80 in a 0 to 85.

Over the longer 6f trip here Best Trip has won a 0 to 85 off 76, that run was immediately after the March'11 5f run I was on about a sentance ago.

Tackling this off 78 Best Trip catches the eye, running out of stall 10 shouldn't be too much of a disadvantage as the 6f 0 to 85 win was achieved after coming out of stall 8. I do think 5f suits this one better than 6f though.

Best Trip is a contrary yoke though, is taken down early generally and lto went off at a furious pace, that was the first run in 3 months though so if behaving itself tomorrow should be in much better shape to put in a decent shift

Martin Harley in the saddle I see as a plus too, a decent jockey who seems to be suited to the AW tracks.

Another €2 at 28.0 put on

7.15 Kempton Perfect Chi 2.46 €3.88 tbp and to win Perfect Chi 9.4 €8.00

Perfect Ch'I is topweight off a mark of 69 for this 0 to 70 7f handicap, Perfect Ch'I is a relatively decent AW performer with two wins and two third places from 16 starts. The most recent win was over course and distance off a mark of 66 in a 0 to 75 last March.

Perfect Ch'I was raised 3lbs for that and tackled another CD handicap off the higher mark, finishing 3rd in another 0 to 75 HC but was only beaten 1/4l and finishing almost a length ahead of the 5/2fav who was running off a mark of 73.

Perfect Ch'I was last seen in the summer contesting CD 0 to 80 and 0 to 85 class4 HCs here so the drop back to 0 to 70 company may well see Perfect Ch'I running well here.

The 6 month absence isn't a positive but I'm not one for buying into the logic that it's a negative either at the price.

7.45 K Jackie Love 5.4 €4.00 tbp and to win Jackie Love 24 €6.00

Jackie Love has some decent ish performances in the form book around here winning a CD 0 to 50 here off 46 in December by a length after being less than prompt at the start, the run before that off the same mark resulted in a 3rd place here after another slow start from a wide draw, like today so even though Jackie Love is up 4lbs from then and lto at W'ton was a poor effort the price tonight is very large in this field.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

5.15 Kempton Best Trip 15.17 €6.00 and tbp Best Trip 4 €1.77 & 4.2 €2.23
...............

Another €2 at 28.0 put on

last

RoverJames wrote: »

7.15 Kempton Perfect Chi 2.46 €3.88 tbp and to win Perfect Chi 9.4 €8.00............

unplaced and well beaten

RoverJames wrote: »

7.45 K Jackie Love 5.4 €4.00 tbp and to win Jackie Love 24 €6.00...............

unplaced too, not too bad a run though

-€33.88 today

6.45 Kempton Veroon 7.6 €11.00 & €4 at the SP

Veroon competes in this 0 to 85 8f contest off a mark of 80, a pound higher than when winning a CD handicap of the same class in October and two pound lower than when a 1/2 3rd the next time out and also when beaten by just over 2 lengths last time out, again over CD in another 0 to 85.

Veroon is there or thereabouts HC wise, wouldn't win off much higher but has a chance greater than the price me thinks, Sunset Kitty is too short despite the good run after fluffing the start last time out, a risky proposition at a mark that may well be beyond capabilities anyway.

4th I think, terrible, terrible ride from James O'Sullivan

7.15 Kempton First Bid 8 €4.00 tbp and to win First Bid 34 €6.00


I think the price of this one is too big in this 0 to 60 8f HC for 3 year olds, First Bid started out HCing off a mark of 70 and finished third in the first two HCs contested over 6f, poor enough in the next two and the HC mark has plummeted 10lbs as a result. The step up in trip might well pay off and there is 8f in the pedigree so at the price it's worth the risk with small stakes.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.45 Kempton Veroon 7.6 €11.00 & €4 at the SP................

4th

RoverJames wrote: »

7.15 Kempton First Bid 8 €4.00 tbp and to win First Bid 34 €6.00
............

3rd

+ €5.60 today

... the disadvantage of using only one site for your bets is when it's down you can't place your bets, today's selections were

4.00 Sherjawy
5.40 Straversjoy

Day off for me it seems :pac:

20 at 5.9 on s'joy

6.10 W'ton Ghostwing 4.9 €25.0

Ghostwing won last time out at at Southwell off 75 in a 0 to 75, that was after a 2nd in the previous race tackled too, another 5f Southwell 0 to 75 off the same mark.

Ghostwing attempts this 0 to 85 off 82 but that mark may well not be at all beyond capabilities has in Jul'10 ghostwing was 2nd over 6f at Kempton in a 9 to 95 off 90, beaten under a length by the favourite.

7.40 W'ton Dazzling Begum 28 €8

In poor enough form of late but there was more than a glimmer of hope shown last time out over the 16f trip lto, that was also a 0 to 60 and in fairness to Dazzling Begum though beaten 16l today's 12f trip is within range if on form and it being a 0 to 50 is also a plus.

On top form or anywhere close to it Dazzling Begum would be there or thereabouts for a race like this so the price is a tad fat in my book.

9.20 Dundalk Paramount 17 €3.13 & Paramount 14 €3.64 and tbp 3.65 €3.00

Many of this one's turf efforts suggest that this race might well be a good opportunity....

17Aug11 Bel 14Gd Hc 7K 8-9 2/8 (½L Zaralabad 9-10) 11/2 R Dawson 75
2nd in a 0 to 85 in August

17Jul11 Cur 12Y Hc 12K 9-5 1/13 (¾L Jigalo 9-0) 20/1 Miss M Pisarek 72
Winning a 60 to 100 over the 12f trip

02Jul10 Bel 14GF Hc 8K 10-11 2/10 (shd+L Cyborg 10-9) t 4/1 Ms K Walsh 73
2nd in a 60 to 90 to the 9/10 fav


Four AW ventures have been not great but it's not a great sample size to be drawing conclusions from.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

20 at 5.9 on s'joy

Nowhere

RoverJames wrote: »

6.10 W'ton Ghostwing 4.9 €25.0.........

Nowhere

RoverJames wrote: »

7.40 W'ton Dazzling Begum 28 €8 ...............

3rd

RoverJames wrote: »

9.20 Dundalk Paramount 17 €3.13 & Paramount 14 €3.64 and tbp 3.65 €3.00.............

2nd

-€52.22 today

1.00 Lingfield Layline 5.4 €4.0 tbp and to win Layline 22.08 €20

I'd be surprised if this one was any bigger before the off, Layline looks to be an absolutely fantastic bet off 89 in this 10f 0 to 95.

We need to go back to February/March direction to take a peak at Layline's impressive AW form over 10f...



12Feb11 Lin 10St C3Hc 5K 9-1 1/13 (nk Scamperdale 9-3) 16/1 Jamie Spencer 89
This run was in a race similar to this on bare facts, being a 0 to 95 and Layline was running off 89 too, Layline held on well to win.

26Feb11 Lin 10St C3 5K 8-12 3/10 (1L Suits Me 8-13) 9/2 Jamie Spencer 91
Next time out rated, Layline was third over CD, but this wasn't a HC so we'll have a looksee at the weights what finished ahead were carrying and their ratings...

1 10 Suits Me 100/30F 8 8-13 Tom Tate 95 * * »
Micky Fenton

Made all, ridden and quickened just over 2f out, found extra when pressed inside final furlong, ran on well (op 7-2 tchd 4-1 and 3-1)


« 2 8 ¾ Resentful Angel 9/1 6 8-3 Pat Eddery 87 * * »
Toby Atkinson5

Chased leaders, went 2nd over 3f out, every chance and driven over 1f out, no extra and stayed on same pace inside final furlong (op 8-1 tchd 7-1)


« 3 2 hd Layline (IRE) 9/2 4 8-12 Gay Kelleway 91 * * »
Jamie Spencer

Held up in touch, ridden and effort on inner over 1f out, pressed leaders inside final furlong, kept on (op 7-2)


« 4 6 ½ Greyfriarschorista 6/1 4 8-12 Mark Johnston 93 * *




On adjusted figures Layline was 3lbs worse off compared to the winner and 5lbs worse off when compared to the horse that finished 2nd, for lengths of a lenght and a head respectively, that's quite decent. The horse that finished in 4th, half a length behind Layline was 2lbs better off.


09Mar11 Kem 10St C4 3K 9-2 3/6 (2¼L Georgebernardshaw 9-2) 5/2F Richard Hughes 91

Then came a run at Kempton, the worst of the three but horses aren't machines as we all know.


Before I looked at the prices the other contender that interested me was Tinshu, very impressive AW profile, recent form and more than likely capable of running well off a mark of 91 but the price is far too short for my liking.

I like Robert Winston being on board too, he has won on Layline in the past.

2.10 Forty Proof 18.5 €10.0 too big for this CD winner on a slipping mark

2.40 Lingfield King Of Wing 8.4 €25.00

Making the HC debut but showed last time out that it's reasonable to assume that 8f should suit judging bu it took the guts of the 7f race to assert, seemed to struggle for pace over the shorter trips but the surface here didn't seem a problem.

Bronze Angel is very short, admittedly won lto when expected to do so but that was a weak maiden so I wouldn't be taking too much confidence from it.

-€59.00 today, none of the three selection threatened to land a blow

3.40 Kempton Sir Boss 30 €10.00 and tbp Sir Boss 5.9 €2.00
Larger price may well be available overnight or tomorrow but 30.0 is plenty big enough for me.

Recent form must be totally ignored to see any point in backing Sir Boss but I'm happy to do that, as always I look at can I see the horse winning this is firing on all cylinders, I reckon Sir Boss can.

This is a 0 to 85 HC that Sir Boss tackles off 82.

Back in the Spring and Summer Sir Boss put a decent run together...

21May11 Chs 13Gd C3Hc 8K 9-4 3/10 (1¼L English Summer 9-7) 11/2 Liam Jones 86 * *

06May11 Chs 12GF C4Hc 6K 9-7 2/11 (2L Lovers Causeway 8-11) 10/1 Liam Jones 85 * *

08Apr11 Wol 12St C4Hc 3K 9-4 1/5 (1½L Saint Thomas 8-12) 11/4 Tom Queally 80 * *

23Mar11 Kem 12St C4Hc 3K 9-0 2/7 (1L Sweet Origin 9-0) 9/2 Tom Eaves 76 * *

09Mar11 Kem 12St C5Hc 2K 9-5 1/8 (hd Epsom Salts 9-2) 9/2 Tom Eaves 73 * *

02Mar11 Kem 12St C6Hc 1K 9-13 1/9 (1¼L Lytham 8-10) 9/2 Tom Eaves 70

20Feb11 Kem 12St C5Hc 2K 9-1 1/10 (1½L Time Square 9-3) 10/1 Tom Eaves 64 * *

04Feb11 Lin 12St C5Hc 2K 10-8 3/14 (¾L Squad 10-6) 11/2 Miss M Mullineaux 63

Including a course and distance victory and a win at W'ton over 12f too.

Sir Boss is 4 wins, 2 2nds and 2 3rds from 13 starts on the AW so it's not inconceivable to expect Sir Boss to reproduce the turf form that saw it competing effectively at Chester when in good form over the Summer.

1.40 Kempton Nolecce 10.35 €10 and tbp 3.3 €2.31

8f seems to suit this one nicely, 2nd in a 0 to 75 on turf at Doncaster in October off a mark of 63, Nolecce tackles this contest off a mark of 64.

Nolecce has won and came 2nd here over longer trips, in 0 to 60 and a 0 to 80 so the drop back down into class 6 company for this is another plus.

I see no reason at all why a decent run can't be expected.

4.40 le king beau 30 at 4.6

-€54.34 today

3.25 W'ton Jawaab 40 €4.00 and €4 at the SP too.

I'm going with a generously priced horse in this 12f 0 to 75 HC.

Jawaab is down to mark of 70, on March Jawaab won a CD o to 85 off a mark of 80, Jawaab is 8 years old but even though recent runs have not being great a drop of 10lbs from then is a plus.

Jawaab has actually not has a thoroughly decent run since that March win and has been tried over shorter trips as well as having some some hurdling fun, without being disgraced at Sedgefield and Kelso in Sept and Oct.

Jawaab was last seen in a 9f HC here on Stephen's Day and was beaten 10l off 4lbs higher, that was from a wide draw though, stall 3 tomorrow which is much better.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.25 W'ton Jawaab 40 €4.00 and €4 at the SP too...........

Not too bad a run, 4th, good few lengths beaten though, went off at 6/1.
-€8 today

3.00 Lingfield Desert Strike 3.81 €8.00 backed to win

Sherjawy does tempt me a little as it seems a horse that is in form and will win soon and is still a few pounds below it's last win that wasn't too long ago.

Desert Strike is hard to get away from though and with the jockey, Nora Looby taking 7lbs off I see the price as being quite decent considering Desert Strike has been running respectably and consistently over the last couple of months.

Desert Strike was last seen in action on Sunday, beaten a length by Stevie Gee at Kempton over a furlong longer than this race, I feel that extra furlong was crucial as Stevie Gee really dug in and ground out the win, Desert Strike has only one once over 6f but has won 8 times over the 5f trip, Stevie Gee was also 5lbs better off on adjusted figures so that no doubt was a factor too but again, I think the 6th furlong was the main issue for Desert Strike not winning.

Two runs before that Desert Strike won a 5f claiming stakes at W'ton, then off a mark of 80 contested a 0 to 85 HC at Kempton, beaten 3l.

Desert Strike is back to a mark of 75 in this 0 to 75, with Nora Looby taking off 7lbs I reckon Desert Strike is very well weighted/handicapped.

The last time Desert Strike ran off 75 in a 0 to 75 over 5f was at W'ton on 1st Dec, beaten only 1/2l.

Fingers crossed ...

5.55 Kempton Its Dubai Dolly 8.8 €4.00 and €2 at SP

Its Dubai Dolly is one of three CD winners tackling this 12f 0 to 50 HC and one of five who have won over the trip anywhere.

Last time out Its Dubai Dolly was seen staying on well towards the finish is a 9f contest at Wolverhampton. Before that Its Dubai Dolly faded in the final furlong over CD here but in races of this class rock solid recent form isn't all too common.

I wouldn't reckon anywhere near eight of the field have a chance in this, the 4 year olds are probably the ones with a chance with a bit of improvement but Its Dubai Dolly did show a bit of enthusiasm lto in the closing stages so I can see a good run tomorrow.

6.55 Kempton Wild Desert 9.4 €4.00 and tbp Wild Desert 3.35 €2.00

I'm surprised Wild Desert is this big pricewise, Wild Desert is in quite good form, beaten by only a length (ish) in the last two runs off marks of 83 and 81 in 17f and 16f races.

I don't really see why Dark Ranger is so short at less than 4.0, solid credentials as the trip suits and a 0 to 85 wouldn't be too classy but looks a 5/1 shot to me.

7.25 Kempton Grand Honour 40 €6.00 and tbp Grand Honour 7.6 €2.00

This one is not without a chance here despite the huge price, Grand Honour has ran well over CD on more than one occasion off higher marks than this, today Grand Honour is drawn in stall 4 which might well be beneficial as when just tracking the leaders Grand Honour seems to run very well, although Grand Honour is regularly held up so a prominent run is far from overly likely. Still off a mark of 45 this 6 year old does catch the eye.

In February Grand Honour finished 3rd off 51 beaten less than 2l and in Jan 2010 at Lingfield was beaten less than a length off a mark of 63 in a 0 to 70.