Horses......... lots of lays

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.00 Lingfield Desert Strike 3.81 €8.00 backed to win..............

Won

RoverJames wrote: »

5.55 Kempton Its Dubai Dolly 8.8 €4.00 and €2 at SP..............

Non-runner

RoverJames wrote: »

6.55 Kempton Wild Desert 9.4 €4.00 and tbp Wild Desert 3.35 €2.00.............

Unplaced

RoverJames wrote: »

7.25 Kempton Grand Honour 40 €6.00 and tbp Grand Honour 7.6 €2.00...........

Unplaced

+€7.38 today

5.00 W'ton Country Road 7.2 €6.00......... and €4 at 11.0

This one hasn't been seen for a while so might well need the run but the price is likely 10 (to 15 maybe) times that of the fav, La Estrella. On the adjusted figures they are much of a muchness, La Estrella rated 10lbs higher and carrying 10 lbs more, La Estrella is in decent form, has not always ran to the rating though and at 9 years old won't be improving much, if Country Road is well prepared and not needing the run too much there shouldn't be much between them.

7.00 W'ton Cotes Du Rhone 6.4 €10.00

I'm not usually prone to backing in 3yo HCs but this 12f contest doesn't have many contenders with racecourse experience over the longer trips, Cotes Du Rhone ran respectably lto over 11f staying on well towards the finish of the race, going off the same mark here Cotes Du Rhone is the only horse I could fancy so anything over 3/1 would be fine.

... small dual forecast with the fav too.......5 - 7 / 7 - 5 5.8 €2.00

7.30 w'ton Welsh Dancer 8.4 €11.67

Welsh Dancer had a decent run over CD a few runs ago, beaten less than 2l off 52 in a 0 to 55.

Lto at Kempton off today's mark of 50 Welsh Dancer was poor enough, beaten 5l in a 0 to 50 but hit traffic problems in the straight when making a push and was than eased, with a clear run Welsh Dancer might well have been a lot closer and tonight's race isn't too strong so I reckon Welsh Dancer has a chance greater than the price suggests. Welsh Dancer is also a 4 year old so is quite entitled to improve

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

5.00 W'ton Country Road 7.2 €6.00......... and €4 at 11.0.........

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.00 W'ton Cotes Du Rhone 6.4 €10.00...........

RoverJames wrote: »

... small dual forecast with the fav too.......5 - 7 / 7 - 5 5.8 €2.00

3rd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.30 w'ton Welsh Dancer 8.4 €11.67

.............
..........

Unplaced

-€33.67 today

Lingfield 3.40 Trip Switch 2.9 €20

Trip Switch is one win and a second place from two 10f starts which were the last two races, before Christmas at Kempton Trip Switch beat Edgware road by under a length yet easily, they re oppose here with Trip Switch carrying a pound less than Edgeware Road, Edgware road carried two pounds less at Kempton but is now a 4 year old.

Trip Switch doesn't have an ideal draw but has won at W'ton over 9f from a similar starting perch and as Trip Switch typically tracks the leaders the wide draw may not be much of a disadvantage.

Last time out Trip Switch as mentioned was 2nd, that was here at Lingfield, in a 0 to 70 with a 67 rated rival ahead, in this 0 to 65 off the same mark I think Trip Switch has a very decent chance of a win.

4.55 W'ton Canadian Danehill 3.3 €18.00

10 year old now and in a good run of form, no shame in the 3rd over CD two runs ago and last time out was only just beaten at Southwell by the fav, running off 50 again today has a very decent chance in this class7 race, I think most of this field appreciate longer trips, Canadian Danehill has plummeted in the ratings since he was 8 but if recent good spirits continue may find this a nice opportunity.

.............. 6.2 €10 since the drift set in

5.25 W'ton Villa Reigns 4.2 €25.00
Decent form in HCs over the trip at Kempton, the fav is making the HC debut but the horse that beat it lto Mr Hendrix hasn't turned out to be much in HCs so I don't really fancy Welease Bwian anywhere near as much as the market does.

7.30 W'ton Transmit 2.76 €40.00

No denying this one is short but lto off the same mark wasn't a bad effort, 2nd to the fav, drawn well here from stall 2 I think it's worth backing in a weak contest, nothing profound admittedly in those thoughts.

7.50 Dundalk Farmleigh House 4.5 €30.00

I like this one, drawn well, good course and distance form, from 4 runs here the only time it's been unplaced was over the longer 8f trip.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Lingfield 3.40 Trip Switch 2.9 €20.................

Won

RoverJames wrote: »

4.55 W'ton Canadian Danehill 3.3 €18.00..............
.............. 6.2 €10 since the drift set in

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

5.25 W'ton Villa Reigns 4.2 €25.00.............

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.30 W'ton Transmit 2.76 €40.00...........

3rd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.50 Dundalk Farmleigh House 4.5 €30.00.........

Won

+€42.85 today

1.55 Lingfield Hoover 20 €4.00, €2 at SP & tbp 5.2 €4.0

Hoover has an impressive record over 6f trips on the AW both here and at Kempton, Hoover won it's 2nd maiden run here and in 3 HCs has only been unplaced once, that was when finishing 3rd of 6, beaten 4l off 76 in a 0 to 85, still finished 2l ahead of the 85 rated fav.

Last time out Hoover finished 2nd (dh) in a 0 to 70 off topweight, only beaten 1/2 length, that was in July so might well need a run but ran very well on debut in it's first maiden so I'm not overly concerned.

Nathan Allison takes the ride so 5lbs less for that, which is class, a very capable pilot, over a 10% strike rate so really happy with that.

3.00 Lingfield Fratellino 6.8 €10.00

This should be a great race to watch, 6f 0 to 95HC, Fratellino runs off 92 which is 1lb higher than lto when 2nd over the same trip here in a 0 to 100, beaten 2l by the 98 rated 9/4 fav.

That was Fratellino's first run since May and only it's 3rd AW start, Fratellino is in stall two again for tomorrow and like to lead so that's a plus, Fratellino might well have come on from the run last time out appears to be a bit of value pricewise.

3.35 Lingfield Mull Of Killough 4.1 €32.0

The mile trip seems best for this one, a few runs back was close 2nd over CD after a less than knife through butter run home a couple of furlongs out, with a bit of luck off 2lbs higher has a great chance.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

1.55 Lingfield Hoover 20 €4.00, €2 at SP & tbp 5.2 €4.0.........

Unplaced, didn't lead but ran well, I reckon he needed the run, Nathan Allison made good use of the 5lb claim 2 races later on a ride that Eddie Ahern was down for.

RoverJames wrote: »

3.00 Lingfield Fratellino 6.8 €10.00..............

Simply woeful really.

RoverJames wrote: »

3.35 Lingfield Mull Of Killough 4.1 €32.0

.............

Won, in fairness to Shane Kelly, one of the best rides I've seen in a while, got the horse through a space juuuuuuuuuuuuuuust big enough when looking like he'd be squeezed out.

+€74.24 today

............ 100 pages :pac:

I fancy the arse off this yoke for some reason

4.05 Market Rasen Gross Prophet 13 €13.57 & Gross Prophet 13.34 €3.00
Gross Prophet 21 €5.00 & tbp Gross Prophet 3.8 €4.0

I'm so glad I had a winner on the AW today as I have this Gross Prophet picked out for a few days and was thinking I couldn't throw it in here as folks would be reckoning the pressure was getting to me :pac:

Anyway, this is a 17f HC hurdle on good to soft, Gross Prophet is rated 99, Gross Prophet won over the trip in November off a mark of 88 quite decisively on similar ground, since then has run twice off a mark of 97, falling and coming 3rd, beaten less than 3 lengths.

That 3rd place showed that Gross Prophet hasn't been anchored at all by the rise in weight. As well as the trip etc suiting there are two reasons why I really really fancy Gross Prophet tomorrow.

Gross Prophet seems to go well fresh, I think the month and a half without a race will have him perfect for this tomorrow, 4 of Gross Prophet's 8 career wins (including flat races) have come when he has had a month or two free of a race.

The second reason is the ground, it's good to soft but the hurdles course is good in places, it's also windy there it shouldn't be getting any softer, I think good to soft suits this one better than genuine soft ground.

Fingers crossed.

3.55 Kempton Now 4.5 €25

Back to the AW.

These 0 to 55s can be awful but Now should be firing well for it, Now ran into awful traffic problems last Sunday contesting an 11f contest here off the same mark and finished 4th but showed that the rise to 51 was warranted after winning here over 12f off 47.

The draw is poor but over 12f how much it matters I don't know, not a huge worry. Now may not turn out to be great but Now is good enough to win one of these. The price isn't bad and I can see this one going off at 9/4.

4.55 belinsky 25 at 3.65, this one has lots of ticks in the important boxes and with a decent draw should go well.

Awful today, I was very disappointed with Now.
-€75.57 today

4.00 W'ton Falasteen 7 €11.00 and €4 at SP

This is a 0 to 75 Class5 5f HC, Falasteen has never raced in a class 5 before. Three of Falasteen's five career wins have been over 5f, the other two over 6f trips, they have all been on turf on ground ranging from good to firm to soft, the last win was in April at Epsom off 85 in a 0 to 95 Class3.

Falasteen has raced on the AW four times, finishing 3rd on one occasion, unplaced the other three. One of those three runs was over 5f at W'ton, in March off a mark of 77, only beaten 1 1/2length in a 0 to 85.

With that March run providing a level of confidence that the ground versatile Falasteen is not too opposed to running here I think the 6/1 is a decent price, Falasteen is drawn in stall 2 with fav, Blown It coming out of stall 1. Down to a mark of 75 over a trip that suits Falasteen should go well. Both the stable and the jockey have been in decent form in January too.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.00 W'ton Falasteen 7 €11.00 and €4 at SP............

2nd, -€15 today

4.30 Kempton Veroon 2.66 €4.00 tbp and to win Veroon 8.6 €11.00 & €4 at SP too.

Veroon tackles this 0 to 85 one mile race off a mark of 80, Veroon is 2 wins, three 2nds and five 3rds from 20 efforts on the AW, focusing on 8f contests around here brings the 20 down to 3 and the results to one win, one 3rd place finish and a 4th place finish, beaten by 1/2l and 1 1/2l in the races that it didn't win off marks of 82 and 80 respectively.

The win was in a 0 to 85 off 79 from stall 5, Veroon is drawn from stall 8 tomorrow so not the worst in a 12 runner, could be better though admittedly.

Frederik Tylicki in the saddle, decent jockey, 13% win rate on the AW surfaces, nothing wrong with that.

5.30 Kempton Best Trip 14.5 €4.00 and €2 at SP

3 wins from 7 course and distance spins, goes hot and cold and has been cold lately, back in a 0 to 75 for the first time in a right few runs, has won from a wide draw here before, just might have enough to last home in this company if in the right mood.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.30 Kempton Veroon 2.66 €4.00 tbp and to win Veroon 8.6 €11.00 & €4 at SP too...............

4th

RoverJames wrote: »

5.30 Kempton Best Trip 14.5 €4.00 and €2 at SP..............

6th

-€25 today

3.50 Lingfield Frequency 18 €8 and tbp 4.5 €3.00

Only eight in the card for this 0 to 85 class 4 7f race, Frequency hasn't ran in many class4s but is fourth highest in the weights though rated 7lbs lower than the topweight, Dozy Joe who like Frequency isn't really fancied in the betting.

Frequency has nine career wins from 40 runs, three of those 9 are over the 7f trip, three runs ago Frequency won a 0 to 75 at W'ton quite cosily by a length off topweight, the 4lbs raised for that didn't seem a huge burden but in two class4 6f races since Frequency hasn't impressed.

I think the return to the 7f trip will help and if Frequency is in form a good run can be expected with the very capable Shane Kelly taking the ride.

6.40 W'ton Kempton Worth €8 at 21.0, will update speel later all going well.

Nothing profound, generously priced course and distance winner, lto run wasn't great but it was over a furlong longer, the favourite does look very solid so I'll have a little on the betfair fcs...

3 - 4 70 €3.0
4 - 3 16 €5.00

7.10 Kempton Sovento 4.5 €25.00

This one has impressive CD form, 2 2nds and a win from 3 runs, lto was onlt just beaten by Jamarjo who was on the card as doubtful for this and who isn't running. Sovento has also run well at Dundalk over the 12f trip, a mark of 63 shouldn't be unfeasible.

The fav, Shirataki is a tad short and up a lash of weight, might well have the work cut out even with an allowance for age, this is a stronger race than last time and Shirataki went off at 2/1 for that, justifying it though.

Little saver on the rf cast..
2 - 4 / 4 - 2 6.8 €7.00

7.40 Kempton Avonvalley 7.4 €25.00 and tbp 2.58 €10.00

Looks to be priced too big for this, has one over the trip and often finishes 5f events with plenty left in the tank so might just hold on for the line.