Horses......... lots of lays

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.50 Lingfield Frequency 18 €8 and tbp 4.5 €3.00...............

7th

RoverJames wrote: »

6.40 W'ton Kempton Worth €8 at 21.0, will update speel later all going well..................

3 - 4 70 €3.0
4 - 3 16 €5.00

4th, fav was 2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.10 Kempton Sovento 4.5 €25.00....................
Little saver on the rf cast..
2 - 4 / 4 - 2 6.8 €7.00

4th, fav was 3rd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.40 Kempton Avonvalley 7.4 €25.00 and tbp 2.58 €10.00................

3rd

-€68.99 today

7.05 Kempton Requisite 12 €15.00 & Requisite 13 €6.00 and tbp 4 €8.00

Requisite is a very game sort, the last time Requisite ran over CD was off the same mark in a similar 0 to 85 contest, finishing 3rd, beaten by just over a length, that was after a CD win off 5lbs lower. Requisite usually is held up and finishes strongly, Requisite needs every yard of the 6f trip to be seen to best effect so things need to drop right but from stall 5 all going well there shouldn't be too much problems for Luke Morris to get a suitable perch from which to launch Requisite for the run home.

Requisite has the trip and course to suit, as been competitive off this mark in a similar strength race so should run a decent race.

7.35 Kempton Microlight 17 €20 and tbp 5.1 €4.00

Some very good form at this level both ont the AW and tuf before lto not being great in 0 to 65 company. Also a decent spin over 7f weakening before home, the extra furlong being the problem there I think.

8.05 Green Warrior 17 €20.0 and tbp 3.55 €6.00

Some of Green Warrior's turf efforts over 5f on easy surfaces suggest the 6f trip should suit, that hasn't proven to be the case but down to a mark of 55 with the jockey's 3lb claim this race might be winnable. Small saver on the place, 3 tbp on Betfair even though only 7 go to post.

-€79.00, all unplaced

5.40 W'ton Could It Be Magic 4.5 €20

This isn't as good a race as Could It Be Magic is accustomed contesting, Could It Be Magic is tackling this 0 to 65 7f race off 64 after a three month absence from the race track, that's not a concern as Could It Be Magic has ran well when fresh in the past.

7f is a suitable trip, in April at Brighton Could It Be Magic finished 2nd off 72 beaten by half a length, before than over CD Could It Be Magic finished 3rd off 69 in a 0 to 70, again only beaten half a length.

Should run well in this.

restingpilgrim

desperately unlucky nearly brought down at first bend and still finished 4th

9.15 Dundalk Strandfield Lady 13.5 €20.00

I reckon this price is far too big for a horse that has won over CD off 5lbs less and who was only beaten 1/2l before Christmas off a pound lower than today's mark.

That lto run Strandfield Lady beat Tribes and Banner too, carrying 11lbs more, today Strandfield Lady only carries 6lbs more and Tribes and Banner is currently 4.4 on Betfair.

Strandfield Lady looks a great bet, the fav Mutasareb has the Handicapper's recent endeavours to overcome.

restingpilgrim

restingpilgrim wrote: »

desperately unlucky nearly brought down at first bend and still finished 4th

Indeed, finished lame too







.............. -€40 today

3.35 Lingfield Tinshu 7.6 €20.00 and tbp Tinshu 2.52 €8.00

5lbs flip in the weights for a 3l defeat to Emerald Wilderness lto, comparing prices of them today the 7.6 looks decent for a horse that has 3 CD victories in the form book. The listed race won here on 17 Dec was a very decent performance, a repeat of that would bring Tinshu very close here.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.35 Lingfield Tinshu 7.6 €20.00 and tbp Tinshu 2.52 €8.00
................

2nd, -€8.45 today

Monday 3.40 W'ton.............. tbc

There's only two of these that I see as realistic contenders, being a 12 runner HC on the AW that may well not be the case. The topweight, Bavarian Princess should struggle as a 4 year old without a weight concession in this contest, the two I see as likely winners are Lastkingofscotland and Striker Torres, I haven't just looked at the first three on the racecard and stopped there but I don't credit the rest with much of a chance, it will be interesting to see what the market is like come Monday/Sunday night.

Lastkingofscotland from 38 AW spins has won 6 times and finished second and third on 8 occasions, the last course and distance effort was in on 9th January where Lastkingofscotland won cosily by a length off 4lbs lower. In January 2011 Lastkingofscotland won over at Lingfield over this 7f trip off a mark of 72 in a 0 to 75, Lastkingofscotland wasn't first post the post that day, was actually beaten a short head but got the race afterwards, anyway I don't think the mark of 69 in this race is anything to worry about, Lastkingofscotland is more than able to perform off it and the surface here at W'ton suits too.

Striker Torres is also running off 69, is in decent form, likes it here over this trip and has ran well off higher marks so I'm really having trouble deciding which one of them is the one to back. Last time out Striker Torres finished 2nd over Cd off 66 but that was in October, there is very decent CD form from last January here off 72 in a 0 to 85, only beaten 3/4 length. Going through the lifetime form though there isn't a very decent run when coming from a few months without racing so I'm tending towards Lastkingofscotland.

I'd want 4.0 at least though and if Striker Torres is closer to 10.0 than 5.0 there will be much deliberation.

.................

.... Lastkingofscotland 5.7 €19.19

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Monday 3.40 W'ton.............. tbc

............... the two I see as likely winners are Lastkingofscotland and Striker Torres.................

.................

RoverJames wrote: »

.... Lastkingofscotland 5.7 €19.19

3rd, Striker Torres was 4th, -€19.19 today

4.00 Southwell Punching 7.4 €14.00

Punching is somewhat of a course specialist here at Southwell, 8 of Punching's 8 AW wins have been here. The most recent was off 68 in a 0 to 75 from stall 11 in November, Punching tackles this race off 69 from stall 3.

In January Punching won a 0 to 75 from a mark of 72 coming from stall 3, Punching likes to be prominent so tomorrow's draw is a big plus and the current mark could be exploited if in form.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.00 Southwell Punching 7.4 €14.00...........

5th, -€14 today

..............November concludes on a positive note + €438.64
............. December total + €191.24

..... January total - €539.15 (guts of Nov and Dec profit lost in Jan)

Total from Sun 19th June to today....
Total P&L: €818.90

€891.81 in the bank now.

7.20 Kempton Ocean Legend 15 €6.53

Competitive 7f 0 to 85 HC with 12 runners on the card, Ocean Legend catches the eye off a mark of 77 from a decent stall 5 draw. Ocean Legend won here in November off a mark of 72 in a 0 to 75 HC when 7/2 fav by over a length, getting the head down and grinding out the win. A patch of form in early 2011 when Ocean Legend ran three times over CD is indicative of the form Ocean Legend is capable of...

10Mar11 Kem 7St C4Hc 3K 9-5 3/14 (1¾L New Leyf 9-6) 9/4F Richard Hughes 83

16Feb11 Kem 7St C4Hc 2K 9-2 1/8 ( 0-0) 3/1 Neil Callan 80

02Feb11 Kem 7St C4Hc 3K 9-3 3/8 (2¾L Advertisement 9-3) 3/1 Adam Kirby 80


Three 0 to 85 handicaps, one of which Ocean Legend shared the spoils in, the other two not beaten by much, looks more than a bit overpriced here.

TheJackAttack

RoverJames wrote: »

7.20 Kempton Ocean Legend 15 €6.53

Competitive 7f 0 to 85 HC with 12 runners on the card, Ocean Legend catches the eye off a mark of 77 from a decent stall 5 draw. Ocean Legend won here in November off a mark of 72 in a 0 to 75 HC when 7/2 fav by over a length, getting the head down and grinding out the win. A patch of form in early 2011 when Ocean Legend ran three times over CD is indicative of the form Ocean Legend is capable of...

10Mar11 Kem 7St C4Hc 3K 9-5 3/14 (1¾L New Leyf 9-6) 9/4F Richard Hughes 83

16Feb11 Kem 7St C4Hc 2K 9-2 1/8 ( 0-0) 3/1 Neil Callan 80

02Feb11 Kem 7St C4Hc 3K 9-3 3/8 (2¾L Advertisement 9-3) 3/1 Adam Kirby 80


Three 0 to 85 handicaps, one of which Ocean Legend shared the spoils in, the other two not beaten by much, looks more than a bit overpriced here.

Nice one mate. Followed you on this. Great call;)

TheJackAttack

TheJackAttack wrote: »

Nice one mate. Followed you on this. Great call;)

Fair play
I hope to feck you weren't following me for January :pac:

7.50 Kempton Jackie Love 8.2 €4

Small stake yet valuesome I feel.

Jackie Love has been quite consistent over the 7f trips here of late not being beaten by much length wise, Jackie love also has beaten the fav, Blueberry Fiz, by almost 2l over CD on 15 Dec, carrying a pound less, same as today, 3.5 times the price of the fav today so worth a shot me thinks.

TheJackAttack

RoverJames wrote: »

Fair play
I hope to feck you weren't following me for January :pac:

I had Chart 6.20 and Tenbridge 6.50 ..both beaten by a nose...Was thinking to myself gotta be third time lucky!

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

7.20 Kempton Ocean Legend 15 €6.53

..........

Won

RoverJames wrote: »

7.50 Kempton Jackie Love 8.2 €4

...........

5th, I'd back that one again in a similar race.

+€67.53 today

3.15 W'ton John Potts 12 €8

John Potts looks like value in this 0 to 70 9f handicap, John Potts is a multiple course and distance winner, winning six times since Dec'10, not a bad statistic in fairness. John Potts has gone from a rating of 45 to 70 in that period and hasn't won since March, that was off 66, some recent runs however show that John Potts is capable of winning this.

On 19 Dec'11 John Potts (70) was only beaten one length by the 9/4 fav, Maven (70) who had a 3lb weight allowance for being a 3yo, Maven's jockey was taking another 5lbs off, John Potts was 6/1 for that race.

Last time out on the 23 Jan '12 John Potts was 3rd in a 0 to 75 off 70 again, only a neck behind the 74 rated horse in 2nd yet admittedly another 2 lengths behind the 75 rated winner.

Off 70 in this 0 to 70, 12.0 is far too big I think, only 3 of the other 8 horses have won over the trip, 2 of those over CD, the race is short of well handicapped course specialists.

8.50 Dundalk Regal Tramp 9.6 €12

Last two runs were over 12f here and Regal Tramp shaped as if the 10f trip would be far more suitable. Rating combined with what the runners are carrying puts Regal Tramp in a favourable place and at the odds looks a very decent bet. Anything over 5/1 would be borderline value, 9.6 is very decent.

........Little in running stake saver too that may be matched...........
Regal Tramp
Ref: ..............
2 €10.00

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.15 W'ton John Potts 12 €8

..............

7th

RoverJames wrote: »

8.50 Dundalk Regal Tramp 9.6 €12

.............

........Little in running stake saver too that may be matched...........
Regal Tramp
Ref: ..............
2 €10.00

6th


- €20 today

3.00 Lingfield Tarooq 6 €12.00

I'd have fears that Numeral may not be best suited to an 8f trip so tackling a 0 to 95 at the 5.3 ish he is now doesn't make an attractive option.

Tarooq is only up one pound from when second over CD in a 0 to 100, only beaten a neck that day, looks to have a great chance here and the 6.0 is decent ish,Tarooq was beaten 2l over CD by Lockantanks in December, 7 pound swing now in Tarooq's favour but a 2l beating is a 2l beating. Since than though Tarooq has beaten Lockantanks with a 6lb swing by less than a length, I could see Tarooq confirming that form today.

Shifting Star seems on paper to be outclassed, well beaten by Tarooq and Lockantanks on previous runs, however has been in great from lately over CD, the lto 7f win has lumped on a few pounds though so that should anchor Shifting Star, hopefully.

3.35 Lingfield Status Symbol 7.2 €10.00

A tad off the boil lately but ran a great race over this trip at Kempton in Nov'10, 3rd in a class 1 listed race, should be able to get involved here and at the price is too big.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.00 Lingfield Tarooq 6 €12.00...............

5th

RoverJames wrote: »

3.35 Lingfield Status Symbol 7.2 €10.00

............

8th (last)

-€22 today

4.30 W'ton Gabrials King 2.26 €6.00, this is a lay bet not a back bet.

Gabrials King is one of three horses that I reckon has a serious chance of winning this 7 runner 0 to 65 3yo 9 1/2 f HC.

Gabrials King was beaten lto over CD off the same mark, 57 by one length by Luctor Emergo who goes in this two and who got a 6 pound rise for that victory, that may well not anchor Luctor Emergo who I think could well confirm that form.

Complex is the other one I think might have a big chance, Complex won over slightly shorter here off 53, after being hampered but got back up to win by a neck, Gabrials King was 2nd that day off 50, Complex re opposes carrying one pound less than Gabrials King.

Gabrials King's price is far too skimpy.