Horses......... lots of lays

mike65

I've started doing my own virtual lays using OLBG just to see how it goes - I'm trying to stick to horses that are obviously over-bet for what they've achieved. 7:40 Windsor - Passing Stranger being a good example (hasn't left the stalls in anger yet and is evens)

Evening with the machine planned myself, up to 8pm anyway, might chance the gym for an hour then.

8.10 Windsor Aldwick Bay 3.6 €5.00

Laid. An appalling little race, I think this lad has shown that he needs longer than the 10f, now in saying that I can't find any horse that I reckon is worth backing but I am confident enough that something will finish ahead of this one.

As per fancies for today thread.......... I really really fancy Amazing King though off tw, rated 69 in this and finished 2nd over CD off 70 to a 77 rated 2/1 fav in Aug last year. My sort of formline

Amazing King 2.46 €10.0 to be placed
Amazing King 9 €5.00 to win

and I reckon Beneath ran to his rating lto over CD off, beaten 4l by a rival rated 96, lay for me on that.

Beneath 4.5 €5.00 laid


.........that 96 should be a 69.

8.40 Choral Festival 2.64 €4.00 laid for the place, I think this one is too high at the moment, also think similarly of Miss Topsy Turvy but I'm not laying two to be placed in this race so I'll make do with Choral festival.

Derek!

Thanks for amazing king

8.55 Muss Glenluji 3.4 €5.00

Backed this lad, rated 56, won over CD off 52 in a 0 to 65 HC. Off 65 in a 0 to 75 HC he finished 5th by only 2.25l though. Horses rated 68,62,65 and 74 finished ahead of him so it's not bad form. Fancy him to take this.

9.10 Win Hip Hip Hooray 3 €6.00 to be placed

Won here in June 09, a 0 to 70 handicap off 65, 62 now so not inconceivable that he'll win. Place bet seems like value.

9.25 Muss See The Storm 4.3 €2.07 & 4.3 €2.93

Has to be of interest back down to 7f, still perfectly reasonably rated for a win at the trip that suits.

+€56.27 today

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

I've started doing my own virtual lays using OLBG just to see how it goes - I'm trying to stick to horses that are obviously over-bet for what they've achieved. 7:40 Windsor - Passing Stranger being a good example (hasn't left the stalls in anger yet and is evens)

RacingPost wrote:

Started slowly and lost several lengths, progress from rear halfway, ridden to chase winner well over 1f out, stayed on but no impression (op 6-4 tchd 5-4 and 15-8 and 2-1 in places

Fair play

bit late with this, laid tw in 7.00 Southwell, €5 to lose €10, beaten by a 45 rated horse over CD, muck form, dunno how race is going yet.

7.30 Southwell Tillys Tale 9.4 €4.00 to win and to place Tillys Tale 2.94 €6.00.

Bit of a maze, I like both Tillys Tale & Boogie Waltzer, Tillys Tale edges it for me. Bla bla bla as follows......... Boogie Waltzer won a weak 0 to 80 CD HC off 69, racing off 69 in this. Tillys Tale is 100% on the AW (only run to date was a CD run), a 0 to 80 HC won off 68 by 3L. Up 7lbs for that and many will consider him anchored but I think not

Bookiesindexboy was another one considered but recent form is dreadful.

7.40 Stratford, going with NoelPat's selection here after I had a look at the race earlier today after seeing his post...

Well the horse that beat him by a neck lto came out and won after being raised 7lbs and they were well clear of the rest. I definitely wouldn't try and put you off backing him, versatile regarding trip and ground and a course winner here too, also in good form. Worthy favourite.


........War Party 6 €5.00 and laying this lad for the place as I think he is rated far too high at the mo Health Is Wealth 2.94 €5.00

8.10 Stratford Bedizen 5.4 €5.00 to be placed, I reckon this CD 8 year old has enough to run a great race in this company. Tasty odds to win too Bedizen 28 €4.69

-€44.89 for today

Bad start to this evening, I laid Outsmart in the 7.10 Chepstow for €10. Bastad computer / google chrome threw a fit too so have been virus scanning and deleting cookies etc since :rolleyes:

Anyway, 8.10 chepstow..

Command Marshal 2.85 €6.00 to be placed
to win.........

8.2 €4.00 €28.80
8.4 €1.00 €7.40
8.4 €2.66 €19.68

Quite feasibly rated for this, slight concern 10f is too short but I intend laying him in running at 2.0 for €15. I reckon he'll lead from start to finish (hopefully) but as things are going not too well yesterday and today I'll be placing the in running just in case he's caught late on.

8.20 K Merchant Of Medici 3.9 €15.00 backed on basis of last CD run and win

Not my day, off to the gym for an hour

- €41.06 today and my knee is half sh&gged me thinks :rolleyes:

7.55 Epsom Space Station 4.6 €10.00 backed

A tad disgusted to see his lad fav as the racing post 8/1 betting forecast had a nice ring to it. Has to have a huge chance though in 0 to 85 company here.

8.30 Epsom Avon River 3.25 €5.00 laid

I don't see Epsom suiting this fillie to be honest, has won at Windsor though in fairness to her. That aside though the price and the official rating don't tally.

Laid for the place too......

Avon River 2.02 €7.00

End Or Beginning 1.1 €10.00 laid for the place.

3 of the 6 tbp on Betfair hence the looney short odds, well worth risking the single euro for though in my book.

9.00 Epsom Ramona Chase 6.8 €10.00 backed.

Apologies for the lack of originality in my logic for this one but the last course and distance runs on Good are interesting..........

Beaten 5L 3/4 l in a Class 2
Beaten 5L in a 0 to 105
Won a 0 to 85

This is a 0 to 80 on Good so I'm confident

Ramona Chase 1.97 €15.00 to be placed.

9.10 New Anton Dolin 3.7 €10.00

Laid, if this lad wins the handicapper should be shot :pac:

+ €44.18 for today

Derek!

Good day at the office today James

Indeed , Thanks
Made up for yesterday, going well enough overall though, I haven't chased losses to much of an extent and have kept the discipline going. Wanted to have a bet on Bakoura in the 8.10 Newbury too but the bastad laptop was being a pest, such is life.

Since I started the log I'm happy enough, enjoying since I started backing selections too, sometimes when you something to be beaten it's better to back the fancy than lay the yoke you think will lose, less risk.

3.00 Don Checherazad to be placed, not the most courageous of bets but this one is rated a tad higher than the fav, went well ish on two 7f outings in class 4 company so looks a good place bet here back over 7f, beaten fav lto over 6f.

Cheherazad 2.86 €15.00

3.10 Warwick Urban Kode 3.5 €5.00 laid

Better on the AW than on turf, this trip will stretch him if his run in Hamilton in a 0 to 65 HC is anything to go on, 11f, beaten 21 lengths after being urged 3f out.