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Auroras-June 23rd/24th

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  • 22-06-2011 12:07am
    #1
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭


    From Spaceweather:

    "Magnetic fields above sunspot complex 1233 erupted during the early hours of June 21st, producing a C7 Class solar flare and a full halo CME. The expanding cloud is heading almost directly toward Earth. The impact is expected to trigger a G2-class (Kp=6) geomagnetic storm." The impact will arrive through June 23rd, and will last through 24th June.

    Assosiated weather forecast (Met Eireann.ie):

    "The wind will ease Thursday night and the showers will die out giving generally dry, clear and cool conditions."

    Friday evening and night doesn't look good atm.

    So, The weather would seem to be on our side currently for Thursday night, early Friday am...but it's much harder due to limited darkness hours, and a brighter North Sky, but this is a solid chance for some Auroras, most likely in the North, but maybe a show will pop up further South. Stay tuned.


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    #2
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    John.Icy wrote: »
    From Spaceweather:

    "Magnetic fields above sunspot complex 1233 erupted during the early hours of June 21st, producing a C7 Class solar flare and a full halo CME. The expanding cloud is heading almost directly toward Earth. The impact is expected to trigger a G2-class (Kp=6) geomagnetic storm." The impact will arrive through June 23rd, and will last through 24th June.


    WOOP WOOP! :D:D:D


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    #3
    delw
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    is it a KP 7 or 8 needed for further south than northern ireland?


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    #4
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Delw..would need to be something like that...a real beast is needed..but Im taking hope in the fact there expecting a kp of 6, usually they say it might reach 5 or peak at 6...so maybe this expected kp of 6 could hit the majestic 7 for a short period... things will firm up later today as the CME gets closer..then we will have a better picture of what this could do..lets hope its a lively one..

    A C class wouldn't usually do much..but if it is a near direct hit on earth..it's as good really as all these "glancing" blows from slightly bigger flares we have become familar with...and at C7 class..it's just 2 subdivsions off being an M class (C fllares max at C9).

    And I only remembered there, a solar wind from a coronal hole on the sun is presumed to arrive June 23rd..so a nice double whammy..looks quite tasty for ye Northern folk, less so the South..but thats always the case with auroras! :D


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    #5
    snowstreams
    Registered Users Posts: 1,318 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    Damn, they misjudged the speed of the flare. They expected it to travel at 800Km/s but its actually travelling at more like 650km/s. So its not going to arrive till 7UT so 8am on friday morning.
    And also its lower speed means it wont be as strong, so Kp = 5.


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    #6
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    snowstreams wrote: »
    Damn, they misjudged the speed of the flare. They expected it to travel at 800Km/s but its actually travelling at more like 650km/s. So its not going to arrive till 7UT so 8am on friday morning.
    And also its lower speed means it wont be as strong, so Kp = 5.

    They could be wrong with this also! :).... they once forcast a kp of 5 awhile back and it went up to 7 for a time! :)

    2 of my friends are up on one of the Scottish islands this week, they'd be in a great spot!


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    #7
    snowstreams
    Registered Users Posts: 1,318 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    Hopefully your right.
    I'll see what happens. I havent seen any aurora in Ireland before. But ive only started reading about it happening in Ireland in the last 6 months.


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    #8
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    snowstreams wrote: »
    Hopefully your right.
    I'll see what happens. I havent seen any aurora in Ireland before. But ive only started reading about it happening in Ireland in the last 6 months.

    My dad remembers seeing it from here in N. Dublin when he was my age he said.

    He said it was only a shimmering white colour ( the stronger it is the more chance of colours coming through )... but ye, even if i got to see that id be happy. if its a clear nite on friday i mite ask the bro to go for a drive up to somewhere high up... up near the drogheda or something.


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    #9
    gbee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    snowstreams wrote: »
    I havent seen any aurora in Ireland before. But ive only started reading about it happening in Ireland in the last 6 months.

    It can happen in Ireland more frequently than the general public think, our cloud cover tends to block sightings.

    As we are so far south, in Cork for instance we'd jest expect to see a green glow on the horizon and low down, it's been seen aright, just not recognised for what it is.


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    #10
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Seen that just there Snowstreams...an expected storm of kp5 is still good...as said by Iancar, there can be peaks to higher values for a time..the last one was a kp4/5, but bounced up to kp6 for a time...

    Now the potential spanner in the works with the late arrival..

    From Met.ie:
    Friday will become cloudy with rain spreading from the west in freshening southerly winds and top temperatures will be 13 to 15 degrees. It will continue to be wet and windy on Friday night but mild with lowest temperatures around 10 to 12 degrees.

    I'm hoping now that with the late arrival, the storm can ride through Friday, and into Saturday night/very early Sunday, as the rain is clearly from Friday, and there'll be some clear spells..so a G1 storm still going, and Earth being inside a solar windstream from a Coronal hole...There may be a chance some Northern guys...as sadly, with the delay and slight weakening, it's highley unlikely for us South of the border to get in on anything..could be subject to change...these things flip and flop till the last moment.

    EDIT:And Muckfish below is spot on, there's a tiny window to see them at this time of year..and a kp6 would have been needed to punch above the brighter Northern horizon..it doesn't look great due to the weather for Friday...let's hope.


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    #11
    muckish
    Registered Users Posts: 610 ✭✭✭muckish


    To be honest I wouldn't hope to see much this time of year. Aurora sightings are more favourable for the southern hemisphere this time of year. The horizon is still bright after midnight here so I don't think it will be dark enough to see anything that's less than a KP6. The KP5 events were seen low on the horizon here in Donegal during the winter months past. Not a chance of seeing them in June around midsummers!
    Anyway I'll venture out and pack the camera if the cloud cover looks promising. There's always a chance of seeing something, but with the added potential of seeing an aurora and noctilucent clouds at the same time. Now that would be worth seeing. Fingers crossed.


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    #12
    muckish
    Registered Users Posts: 610 ✭✭✭muckish


    John.Icy wrote: »

    There may be a chance some Northern guys...as sadly, with the delay and slight weakening, it's highley unlikely for us South of the border to get in on anything.

    Ahem!!! Back to Irish geography lesson No.1! Donegal being the most northerly county on the Island of Ireland is actually south of "the Border" and is part of the Republic. I'm sure you meant to say "us further south to get in on anything!":D

    Anyway back to more serious things! Current KP is around 4 so things look like they are ramping up. Forecast for tonight is to be clear (even a possibility of frost!). So keeping an eye on KP values and potential clear skies, I think I might be heading out tonight for a look. Now do I need Euro or Sterling to get some Diesel? emmm:confused:


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    #13
    eskimocat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    So to get a view of these wonders, granting of course that the weather plays fair, would it be better to go onto high ground or head to the sea to get the best view? And would I be correct in thinking that light pollution will interfere with any effects?


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    #14
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    eskimocat wrote: »
    So to get a view of these wonders, granting of course that the weather plays fair, would it be better to go onto high ground or head to the sea to get the best view? And would I be correct in thinking that light pollution will interfere with any effects?

    Higher ground would be best , the further the view of the horizon the better. I sadly dont drive so hav to try ask the bro to go somewhere later if it looks clear enough. And yes, of course, the darker the sky the better :)

    Hopefully some of us will get to see something!, except NightSkyhunter... he spoiled with everything he gets to see! ha ;)


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    #15
    eskimocat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Higher ground would be best , the further the view of the horizon the better. I sadly dont drive so hav to try ask the bro to go somewhere later if it looks clear enough. And yes, of course, the darker the sky the better :)

    Hopefully some of us will get to see something!, except NightSkyhunter... he spoiled with everything he gets to see! ha ;)

    Thanks for that. I might take a spin tonight to check it out :) Hope you get a driver...


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    #16
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    eskimocat wrote: »
    Thanks for that. I might take a spin tonight to check it out :) Hope you get a driver...

    If anything i'll be going up to the old dublin areodrome area... thats quite hight up.

    If ya hav google earth, thats a good tool to find some hight spots that u wouldnt exactly know if they arent close to you.


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    #17
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    muckish wrote: »
    Ahem!!! Back to Irish geography lesson No.1! Donegal being the most northerly county on the Island of Ireland is actually south of "the Border" and is part of the Republic. I'm sure you meant to say "us further south to get in on anything!":D

    Anyway back to more serious things! Current KP is around 4 so things look like they are ramping up. Forecast for tonight is to be clear (even a possibility of frost!). So keeping an eye on KP values and potential clear skies, I think I might be heading out tonight for a look. Now do I need Euro or Sterling to get some Diesel? emmm:confused:

    Lol..I meant the Ulster border, unless Donegal has branched away from their aswell :P


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    #18
    muckish
    Registered Users Posts: 610 ✭✭✭muckish


    John.Icy wrote: »
    Lol..I meant the Ulster border, unless Donegal has branched away from their aswell :P
    as the song goes....


    And if I could I’d build a wall around old Donegal
    The north and south to keep them out, my god I’d build it tall
    Casinoes, chicken ranches, I’d legalize them all
    We’d have our own Las Vegas in the hills of Donegal
    Yeah!! Las Vegas in the hills of Donegal

    who cares where the border is so long as we see an aurora tonight or tomorrow. Come on the weather gods and clear the skies tonight:D


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    #19
    Columbia
    Registered Users Posts: 1,494 ✭✭✭Columbia


    From my location it looks like the clouds have rolled in just in the nick of time to prevent any possibility of seeing anything. Cheers, weather :rolleyes:


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    #20
    hellboy99
    Registered Users Posts: 6,219 ✭✭✭hellboy99


    What's the chances like for a show tonight?


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    #21
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Nothing here anyways, The sky is still a bright light blue along the north. No darkness in that direction, a nice bright 'night'.


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    #22
    muckish
    Registered Users Posts: 610 ✭✭✭muckish


    current KP values are 3 . Solar wind speed dropped considerably. Looks like there's going to be no chance of seeing anything tonight. And as Pangaea said the sky is still blue on the northern horizon.


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    #23
    eskimocat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Gave in and went to bed eventually, cause it stayed so bright for so long and after all it was a 'school' night. There seemed to be quite a lot of cloud cover so it seemed a bit pointless. Glad to hear i didn't miss a big show :) Now if it wants to flare up tonight that would be just great, who do i submit my request to ;)


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