July 2011 Boards forecast contest

Lumi

15.4 ..... 26.3 ..... 4.7 ..... 98 ..... 119 ..... (12,10)

Joe Public

14.9 .....29.9..... 3.9 ..... 89 ..... 129 ..... (10,14)

15.2 ..... 27.3 ..... 4 ..... 97 ..... 117 ..... (3 mms, 15 hrs)

Deep Easterly

15.0 ..... 27.3 ..... 3.6c ..... 130 ..... 100 ..... (12.3,14)

:cool:

Speak Now

14.1 ..... 26.5 ..... 3.1 ..... 80 ..... 110 ..... (6,14)

thetonynator

Su Campu wrote: »

A minimum of 5.2 °C was recorded at Dublin Airport this morning, 1st July.

jd wrote: »

15.8 .....28.4..... 5.8 ..... 88 ..... 112 .....( 4,12)

Hmm . .. reading the thread could come in handy . . .:P

rameire

15.3 ..... 27.8 ..... 4.6 ..... 95 ..... 104 ..... (4,10)

TheInquisitor

IMT 15.8 MAX 29 MIN 3 PRC 86 SUN 124 (0,28)

kindredspirit

Ooops! Almost forgot.

15.3 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.2 ..... 95 .....105 ...... (4,10)

waterways

14.6 ..... 23.9 ..... 4.1 ..... 110 ..... 113 ..... (1,8.9)

MiNdGaM3

14.7 .... 26.9 ..... 2.1 ..... 100 ..... 105 ..... (6,18)

Redsunset

18.0 ..... 28.3 ..... 5.0 ..... 100 ..... 160 ..... (12,10)

M.T. Cranium

The on-time forecasts follow ... as a reminder, we decided once upon a time that entries made on time cannot be edited on the 2nd in exchange for penalty status. Meanwhile, anyone has until 0300 Sunday to get in under the usual late entry conditions, and most of you still have that one "late late" option available.

JULY FORECASTS
___________________

Forecaster ...... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Bonus
_____________________________________________________________

redsunset ....... 18.0 ..... 28.3 ..... 5.0 ..... 100 ..... 160 ..... (12 , 10)
H2UMrsRobinson 16.4 ..... 28.2 ..... 6.7 ..... 112 ..... 094 ..... (12 , 24)
snowstreams ... 16.0 ..... 28.7 ..... 5.5 ..... 095 ..... 115 ..... (7 , 12.5)
NIALL D .......... 15.9 ..... 25.7 ..... 4.5 ..... 114 ..... 109 ..... (10 , 9)
Rebelbrowser ... 15.9 ..... 28.2 ..... 5.9 ..... 086 ..... 118 ..... (3 , 14)
DOCARCH ........ 15.9 ..... 27.2 ..... 3.2 ..... 092 ..... 103 ..... (4 , 8)
TheInquisitor ... 15.8 ..... 29.0 ..... 3.0 ..... 086 ..... 124 ..... (0 , 28)
jd .................. 15.8 ..... 28.4 ..... 5.8 ..... 088 ..... 112 ..... (4 , 12)
talkabout ........ 15.8 ..... 31.7 ..... 3.7 ..... 095 ..... 115 ..... (5 , 14)
Sponge Bob* ... 15.8 ..... 26.1 ..... 4.5 ..... 085 ..... 095 ...... (1 , 11)
dacogawa ....... 15.7 ..... 29.2 ..... 3.6 ..... 110 ..... 120 ..... (11 , 16)
danno* ........... 15.7 ..... 26.4 ..... 3.8 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... (8 , 9.6)
ch750536 ........ 15.6 ..... 27.9 ..... 3.2 ..... 073 ..... 112 ..... (0 , 26)
Strasser .......... 15.6 ..... 27.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 085 ..... 105 ..... (15 , 3)
Su Campu ....... 15.6 ..... 28.1 ..... 4.5 ..... 130 ..... 085 ..... (2.8 , 8.5)
Harps ............. 15.5 ..... 26.7 ..... 4.1 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... (8 , 15)
Fionagus ......... 15.4 ..... 26.3 ..... 4.7 ..... 098 ..... 119 ..... (12 , 10)
200motels ....... 15.4 ..... 31.2 ..... 6.9 ..... 139 ..... 108 ..... (6 , 27.5)
thetonynator ... 15.4 ..... 26.0 ..... 3.3 ..... 125 ..... 110 ..... (3.5 , 5)
nacho libre ...... 15.3 ..... 26.8 ..... 4.6 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... (12 , 4.5)
kindredspirit ..... 15.3 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.2 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... (4 , 10)

Con sensus ...... 15.3 ..... 27.0 ..... 4.1 ..... 095 .....105 ..... (6 , 12)

rameire ........... 15.3 ..... 27.8 ..... 4.6 ..... 095 ..... 104 ..... (4 , 10)
Damo2k .......... 15.3 ..... 24.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 110 ..... 105 ..... (10 , 5)
homolumo ....... 15.3 ..... 27.0 ..... 3.7 ..... 095 ..... 110 ..... (0 , 15)
hellboy99 ........ 15.2 ..... 27.3 ..... 4.0 ..... 097 ..... 117 ..... (3 , 15)
nilhg .............. 15.2 ..... 26.1 ..... 4.9 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... (5 , 9.5)
M.T. Cranium ... 15.2 ..... 29.2 ..... 3.7 ..... 100 ..... 100 ..... (2.0 , 17.5)
pauldry ........... 15.1 ..... 25.7 ..... 4.9 ..... 115 ..... 100 ..... (11 , 6)
Deep Easterly .. 15.0 ..... 27.3 ..... 3.6 ..... 130 ..... 100 ..... (12.3 , 14)
Joe Public ....... 14.9 ..... 29.9 ..... 3.9 ..... 089 ..... 129 ..... (10 , 14)
4sheets .......... 14.9 ..... 25.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 115 ..... 099 ..... (5 , 12)
jambofc .......... 14.8 ..... 29.6 ..... 4.7 ..... 100 ..... 110 ..... (9 , 4)
fizzycyst ......... 14.8 ..... 26.7..... 5.0 ..... 095 ..... 130 ..... (1 , 20)
MiNdGaM3 ....... 14.7 ..... 26.9 ..... 2.1 ..... 100 ..... 105 ..... (6 , 18)
mickger844posts 14.7 ..... 25.8 ..... 3.5 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... (12 , 6)
waterways ...... 14.6 ..... 23.9 ..... 4.1 ..... 110 ..... 113 ..... (1 , 8.9)
John mac ........ 14.6 ..... 26.7 ..... 4.7 ..... 093 ..... 120 ..... (6.0 , 10.0)
Tae laidir ........ 14.6 ..... 24.2 ..... 4.0 ..... 139 ..... 088 ..... (9.2 , 5.5)
dasa29 ........... 14.5 ..... 27.0 ..... 2.5 ..... 110 ..... 110 ..... (3 , 20)
okla ............... 14.3 ..... 27.5 ..... 5.8 ..... 092 ..... 105 ..... (8 , 10)
amacachi ........ 14.2 ..... 22.2 ..... 3.7 ..... 109 ..... 088 ..... (0 , 24)
Jerry Seinfeld ... 14.1 ..... 26.5 ..... 3.1 ..... 080 ..... 110 ..... (6 , 14)

Sponge Bob

Bugger

15.8 ..... 26.1 ..... 4.5 ..... 85 .....95 ...... (1,11)

Danno

(1) 15.7
(2) 26.4
(3) 3.8
(4) 110
(5) 90
(6) 8mm, 9.6hrs

M.T. Cranium

Now last call for "late late" regular entrants. Welcome by the way to our several new entrants. This is dead easy if you guess right.

I have edited the original table to add two late entries and set values for "Con sensus" which seem to indicate a slight tendency to picture the coming month as slightly on the dry, sunny side of average, with quite a widespread call for heat later on (I would imagine later on anyway).

SeaFields

MT, I'll use the late late entry if possible? Just back from week away. Haven't been online at all.

15.8 ..... 28.2 ..... 4.9 ..... 90 .....110 ..... (4 , 10)

M.T. Cranium

No problem, the option is open to 0300 tonight, then it's closed off. I will repost the table then. I will apply the same rules to your late late that I had once earlier this year, for your entry bonus max is 6 and penalty is applied over 50 (late is over 60). Just to review that, we apply a 10% penalty to scores above these values but you can't go lower than the thresh-hold, so for example 52 would go to 50, same as 55 (for late late).

Also please note (all entrants) you can only use the late late option once a year and only if you've played all but two or more. A quick look through the table tells me that Beasterly is the only contestant who could now use this option (to 0300).

M.T. Cranium

Report on the first seven days of July ...

IMT stands at 14.1 C

rainfall although variable across the eleven stations has averaged 144% (today may boost this further)

sunshine also quite variable, dull in southwest, but average was 106%

M.T. Cranium

The Valentia weekend bonus question looks like

rainfall trace (zero)

sunshine 10.6 hours

From a quick check of the entries, if I take errors of mm plus (hrs/2) the four that will score highest are likely to be:

Sponge Bob (1, 11) error 1.2

Waterways (1, 8.9) error 1.8

Homolumo (0, 15) error 2.2

Su Campu (2.8, 8.5) error 3.9

most of the zero rainfall forecasts had a lot more sunshine, and most of the cloudy forecasts had too much rain.

Anyway, these data are preliminary and I will check them later in the week. No update means the figures are confirmed.

Sponge Bob

And there were at least 5 Loyalist riots on the 9th ...6 if you count 2 in Belclare alone.

I would have gone for 12 had you chosen that special question...lucky you didn't eh

Sponge Bob

Highest temp so far, Claremorris 13 July 23.0c, don't think anywhere else bust 22c

pauldry

Oak Park 23.3c

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE on July after week two (8-14) ...

IMT for the week was 14.5, now sits on 14.3 C (prob'ly 14.5 tonight)

Rainfall was only 34% for the week, which brings the average down to 89% ... the next five days may bring that back up to above normal.

Sunshine was 122% for the week, bringing the monthly average to 114%. That may be a high point for the time being.

Joe Public

Down to 4.7C in Casement last night.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ July 16-22

Whoops, I forgot to look at the seven-day ag report on the 22nd so I have estimated how the 15th would affect the previous report and updated from there.

IMT appears to be close to 14.0, one station has not updated so that's an estimate. It should rise gradually now to end of month, could reach 15 or so.

Rainfall for the 15th and the past week would see that figure close to 80% of normal. I can't see that rising in the pattern ahead, could then drop into the lower part of the 65-70 range near end of month.

Sunshine was definitely lacking (about 60% since last report) and that brings the month down below normal to 95%. This could rise a bit, if the western cloud isn't too locked in.

M.T. Cranium

Is that for the flash contest? I put it in there for you.

M.T. Cranium

Update for the month after the week of 23-29 July.

IMT now sits at 14.3 C, likely to finish around 14.5.

Rainfall only 30% of normal last week, brought the monthly average down to about 67%. Some rain on the last two days may boost this back towards 75.

Sunshine was somewhat lacking also, at 80% for the week, dragging down the monthly average to about 89% ... this will sag a bit further by the looks of today and tomorrow.

Just a reminder to enter the August forecast contest. The results for July will probably be posted on the 2nd due to the Monday holiday.

Deep Easterly

IMT for July finished at 14.4c, or 0.7c below the 61-90 normal.
Mean Max: 18.4c (-0.9c) / Mean Min: 10.3c (-0.5c)
2011 Jan-July anomaly: +0.44c

IMR (Irish Mean Rainfall) percentage of normal for July: 86.7%
- For 2011 so far: 99.8%


Chart displaying IMR percentage of normal totals for the 2 month period June-July for years 2007 through to 2011:




Forecast for Ireland issued on this day (1st August) in 1950:





All data c/o Met Éireann & The Irish Times

M.T. Cranium

Final values for July courtesy of Met.ie monthly summary:

IMT 14.4 C

MAX 24.4 (Oak Park 27th)

MIN 4.7 (Casement 22nd)

RAIN 87% of normal

SUN 86% of normal

BONUS -- see discussion back in the thread. (zero rain, 10.5h sun)

Scoring will appear soon in the annual scoring thread.