Not another dead cert log...

Dailynaps

Selection #17
3.05 York Harris Tweed

Another Willie Haggas 4yo (owned by his father) who has shown improvement this year. This fella has the form in the book with good seconds in Group 2 and 3 company this summer. He should appreciate the step up in trip (Melbourne Cup was the plan a few months ago!) and is probably 2-3 lengths better with cut underfoot.

2.5pts each way 4/1 Boyles

I'm also keen to have a saver on the 3yo in the field Highland Castle. He is a progressive sort and put in a great performance when fifth in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes last month, running green but coming from last to 5th in the final furlong. Step up in trip should suit on that evidence.

1pt each way 16/1 Boyles and Lads

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

3.05 York Harris Tweed
2.00 York Dafeef

Will also have a double on the two Willie Haggas geldings.

2.5pts each way 7/2 & 8/1 Ladbrokes

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

3.05 York
I'm also keen to have a saver on the 3yo in the field Highland Castle. He is a progressive sort and put in a great performance when fifth in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes last month, running green but coming from last to 5th in the final furlong. Step up in trip should suit on that evidence.

1pt each way 16/1 Boyles and Lads

Going to add another 1pt each way here, still 16/1 with lads.

Dailynaps

No good at York

10pts each way double (Boyles)
2.30 Newmarket Samitar 6/5
2.50 Goodwood Regal Realm 2/1

They both share a formline back to a hot Newmarket Maiden in which they finished 1st and 3rd on their debuts. Samitar (3rd that day) has since come out and won the Albany Stakes Group 3 impressively and Regal Realm was second in the Juddmonte Stakes Group 3 with the step up in trip looking in her favour today.

Worth noting that the filly who split them at Newmarket was Gamilati, who ran out an impressive winner of the Cherry Hinton (Group 2) last month over the same course and distance as the maiden.

That is some classy form which makes this a clear related bet but the bookies will be happy to accept it :P

Dailynaps

3.00 Newton Abbot
10pts each way King Ozzy 4/1 Sky Bet (1/4 1,2,3)

Always amazing just how under-rated Lawney Hill is. She shows a massive profit with horses moving to her from other stables and looks to have improved this gelding as well. She also has a huge profit in handicap races where the horse hasn't run in 90+ days, so I'm not worried about the fitness of the gelding here.

I can forgive his last run as he looked like just not getting home over 2m 4.5f, but if we go on his run before that, he looks like he should be a clear favourite here.

Dailynaps

10pts each way dever dream 7/1 Powers
1.55 Donny

Alanza looks a false favourite, she looks much better over a mile +. Dever Dream has excuses for last few runs and her turn of foot can won this.

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

10pts each way dever dream 7/1 Powers

More seconditis but good run all the same.


3.00 Doncaster
10pts each way Regal Realm 9/4 Bet365

Won a very hot maiden before a 2nd then a 1st in two Group 3s, and was probably worth more than the winning distance lto after an interrupted run. Has an experience advantage over these and probably should be favourite.

Dailynaps

3.15 Curragh
10pts each way Dragon Pulse 11/4 Boyles

Nice progressive colt, took the step up to 7f in his stride lto when comfortably accounting for Parish Hall in a Group 2. Was just ridden out hands and heels that day and should have more improvement to come.

Dailynaps

RWC Tonga v Canada
10pts Under 46.5pts 5/6 Coral

I was very impressed with the Tongan defense against New Zealand, they looked very solid once their defensive line was set (Think all the tries were conceded from breaks) and I think Canada will find it very tough to get scores on the board. Neither side are prolific scorers and I'd have the line here closer to 30pts.

Dailynaps

RWC Argentina v Romania
10pts Under 43.5pts 5/6 Coral

Two tough defences meet here and tries should be hard to come by. The Invercargill setting is notorious for very tricky kicking conditions and with the kickers already struggling with the new ball (Both sides missed numerous penalties last week), it's hard to see where the points will come from.

Dailynaps

RWC Wales v Namibia
15pts Wales -31 Second-half handicap 11/10 Ladbrokes

You have to feel really sorry for the Namibians - Not only did they land in the group of death but they had only 3 days between Fiji and Samoa, 6 days rest before their South African hammering and just 3 days later must play Wales. Wales make 11 changes to the side but we have to be looking at an 8-9 try win. They shipped 12 to SA but it's worth noting 7 of those were in the last 20 minutes. After just 3 days turnaround, I expect the Namibians to be out on their feet come the end of the 80 here.

Dailynaps

Bayern Munich v Man City
15pts under 2.5 goals 11/10 Paddy Power

City look like a good bet here at 3s but I'd be wary of Mancini playing very defensive and not going for the win. Playing defensive is something City do very well, shown by their massive 18 clean sheets in last season's Premier League. Expect Mancini to set up with 2 defensive midfielders and look to hit Bayern on the break. Worth noting that Bayern's stingy defence haven't conceded in 9 games!