Property Market in Waterford

Dan133269

Looks like house prices are not going to recover anytime soon. Those 3 months were indeed a blip, as I guessed on the other thread looking for houses on dunmore road.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0724/breaking19.html?via=mr

Residential property prices across the country fell by 14.4 per cent in the 12 months to the end of June, according to the latest data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The fall more than reversed the 0.2 per cent monthly rise recorded in May, which was the first such increase in nearly five years.

Dublin house prices decreased by 0.8 per cent in the month and by 16.4 per cent on an annual basis, while Dublin apartment prices were 17.9 per cent on the same month in 2011.

The price of residential properties in the rest of the country, excluding Dublin, fell by 1 per cent in June compared with a decline of 1.9 per cent in June 2011. Overall, prices in the rest of the country were down 13.5 per cent in the year to the end of June.

In a statement, stockbroking firm Davy's said the report confirmed that suggestions of a turnaround in the property market had been premature.

They also noted that the June drop more reflects weak bank lending, high unemployment and oversupply of homes. The firm believes that there is no sign of a turning point in the Dublin market and that overall prices will come down further.

reni10

€29k now for a 3 bed terrace in Ballybeg:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=664658

I think that sets an all time low for a house price in Waterford!

shockwave

How many people would actually buy a house in Ballybeg in all fairness.

Thats why its going so cheap.

Dan133269

shockwave wrote: »

How many people would actually buy a house in Ballybeg in all fairness.

Thats why its going so cheap.

Just out of curiousity, where have you lived in Waterford?

shockwave

Grew up in Lismore Park, now living out the Dunmore road area.

Petey89

im renting at the minute im paying 500 for a 2 bed apartment its ok money could be cheaper, a lot of properties in the city are way over priced and never gettin taken off the market. i always look on daft just out of interest on the rental market because im looking to get a house, but there are still houses on daft for rent that were there 2 years ago when i first moved here and there absolute dumps and way over priced. landlords in waterford seriously need to bring the prices down on most properties we are not in the boom anymore. as for buying a house you can get really cheap houses in the city center but newer housing estate prices are still on the high side i think.

reni10

Nearly a 10% average fall in the last 3 months for Waterford City according to Daft.ie:
http://www.daft.ie/report/Daft-House-Price-Report-Q3-2012.pdf

So 3 bed semi average price now sitting at €115k.

Probably another 10 - 20% to come out of the market in the next 6 months I would say and when the 3 bed semi average price gets to about €100k I think we will have reached what is probably the bottom of the market for a while at least.

mike65

http://www.propertyprice.ie/website/npsra/ppr-home-en.html

reni10

Real world example of asking price V selling price:

4 Bed Semi Dunmore Road: €145k
http://www.property.ie/property-for-sale/23-The-Grove-Grantstown-Park-Waterford-City-Co-Waterford/648712/

Actual Selling Price from the new Property Price Register on 3rd August 2012: €125k

So nearly a 15% difference from asking to selling price.

I think that is probably par for the course on most asking V selling prices with between 10 - 25% off.

Dan133269

reni10 wrote: »

Real world example of asking price V selling price:

4 Bed Semi Dunmore Road: €145k
http://www.property.ie/property-for-sale/23-The-Grove-Grantstown-Park-Waterford-City-Co-Waterford/648712/

Actual Selling Price from the new Property Price Register on 3rd August 2012: €125k

So nearly a 15% difference from asking to selling price.

I think that is probably par for the course on most asking V selling prices with between 10 - 25% off.

Had a quick browse myself, saw a few houses selling at least 25% below asking price. We finally have transparency in the market. The days of estate agents blagging their way into sales are gone! Hurray

Hoffmans

http://www.propertypriceregister.ie

a quick search here shows a big decline in values more than what wlr were reporting and quoting earlier today....

wellboytoo

The funny Sic things about these prices is, if you look at the Chartered surveyors guide to the Minimum rebuilding cost in the Waterford area of a detached house for insurance purposes, its €126 per square foot,so the Dunmore rd more modern Earlscourt house's are around 1200 square feet.1200 x 126 €151,200.00.
So even allowing for padding in this figure, we are well below cost at this stage, supply of houses is low yet we are still on a downward slide, bucks all the commonly held supply and demand rules! shows how deep a recession we are in.

Hoffmans

house insurance is it necessary if you are reasonably careful with the chip pan or dont live near feuding yolkels it is a pure waste of time...

Dum_Dum

Someone still needs to spell out to me the benefits of rising house prices. I can see the benefits of rising wages, but I view rising house prices as a diminution of the value of those wages.

fricatus

Dum_Dum wrote: »

Someone still needs to spell out to me the benefits of rising house prices. I can see the benefits of rising wages, but I view rising house prices as a diminution of the value of those wages.

You're absolutely right. House prices should rise in line with inflation, and that should be that.

I suppose rising prices are seen as a proxy for a healthy economy, as in if you've a healthy economy, it will cause house prices to rise. But when they rose like they did in this country, they ended up destroying the healthy economy.

Anything we can do in the future to limit house price rises to about the rate of inflation just has to be done.

4MWD

Dum_Dum wrote: »

Someone still needs to spell out to me the benefits of rising house prices. I can see the benefits of rising wages, but I view rising house prices as a diminution of the value of those wages.

As long as prices are falling then people are afraid to buy because if they wait it will be cheaper, so therefore it is better when prices are rising (but only by a small bit each year) as it encourages those on the fence to buy and that stimulates the whole economy.
If, as is the case now, people don't spend then even more jobs are lost and the situation gets worse and worse and will not improve till confidence returns, which the biggest sign of that is - rising property prices.
The ideal situation is where prices increase a small bit above general inflation each year so that encourages someone to purchase asap and makes the banks more inclined to lend too, without fear of the bubble busting as happened here and elsewhere.
It does appear that things are levelling out now and fairly near the bottom, in my opinion and I speak as someone who put their money where their mouth is as I purchased a house earlier this year in the City. I was not under any pressure to do so, as I could have waited longer, but the right house came up where I wanted it for what I consider a fair price.

south

Residential Property Price Register. Prices from 2010 up. http://propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/ppr-home-en.html

7upfree

Ilovechoc wrote: »

Looking at a house in Fairfield Park... Just wondering if any of ye have any inside info on the area and neighbours etc?

Nice spot. My cousin lives there.

7upfree

Regarding prices: in 1979 a house in Hillview cost €13k (my parents bought there). In 1981 that house cost €23k (almost 80% rise). The value climbed to €27k in 1987; €35k in 1994; €85k in 1998: and onto a whopping €300k in 2006.

As you can see, from 1981 to 1994 it increased in value by around roughly €1k a year and then things went nuts. Apparently, in 200, the FF-lead Government removed all the tax incentives and prices actually stabilised. However, following intense lobbying by the construction sector, these were reintroduced in 2001 - and over the next five years EVERYTHING went nuts.

An interesting programme to watch is this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOE43_YnlOQ

It's an hour long, but accurately predicted everything that happened afterwards. It is truly mind-boggling to watch. If you can spare the time look at it.

This is also fascinating to watch:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd6ZwqLePC0

Isn't it gas that the OECD, the ESRI, etc were all wrong? Morgan Kelly is an example of a person who should be in Government. plain speaker with good fundamentals in economics - unlike the twats in Government now - and those who proceeded them.

Hoffmans

Petey89 wrote: »

im renting at the minute im paying 500 for a 2 bed apartment its ok money could be cheaper, a lot of properties in the city are way over priced and never gettin taken off the market. i always look on daft just out of interest on the rental market because im looking to get a house, but there are still houses on daft for rent that were there 2 years ago when i first moved here and there absolute dumps and way over priced. landlords in waterford seriously need to bring the prices down on most properties we are not in the boom anymore. as for buying a house you can get really cheap houses in the city center but newer housing estate prices are still on the high side i think.

2bedapartments now selling for 15k, thats only 3 years of your rent with plenty left over for decorating
and ya can sell it 7 years down the road tax free ..

barneystinson

7upfree wrote: »

Regarding prices: in 1979 a house in Hillview cost €13k (my parents bought there). In 1981 that house cost €23k (almost 80% rise). The value climbed to €27k in 1987; €35k in 1994; €85k in 1998: and onto a whopping €300k in 2006.

As you can see, from 1981 to 1994 it increased in value by around roughly €1k a year and then things went nuts. Apparently, in 200, the FF-lead Government removed all the tax incentives and prices actually stabilised. However, following intense lobbying by the construction sector, these were reintroduced in 2001 - and over the next five years EVERYTHING went nuts.

An interesting programme to watch is this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOE43_YnlOQ

It's an hour long, but accurately predicted everything that happened afterwards. It is truly mind-boggling to watch. If you can spare the time look at it.

This is also fascinating to watch:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd6ZwqLePC0

Isn't it gas that the OECD, the ESRI, etc were all wrong? Morgan Kelly is an example of a person who should be in Government. plain speaker with good fundamentals in economics - unlike the twats in Government now - and those who proceeded them.

If you predict the end of the world for long enough you have to be right eventually.

I'm not saying there wasn't irrational exuberance in some quarters, but there are as many views on the future of any economy, as there are people with an interest in economics.

7upfree

barneystinson wrote: »

If you predict the end of the world for long enough you have to be right eventually.

I'm not saying there wasn't irrational exuberance in some quarters, but there are as many views on the future of any economy, as there are people with an interest in economics.

In fairness, if you look at that second 12 minute clip, Morgan Kelly got it spot on. Absolutely. As did RTE.

barneystinson

7upfree wrote: »

In fairness, if you look at that second 12 minute clip, Morgan Kelly got it spot on. Absolutely. As did RTE.

Look at everything Morgan Kelly has ever written or asserted or predicted; no economist is a prophet - in this instance he got it right.

Walk into a bookies tomorrow, and wait til you see a relative outsider romp home at 20/1 - there'll be some fella there who was inspired to back him and he may well have had a "scientific" reason for doing so - but if he was really that good at picking winners he wouldn't be sitting in the bookies on a Sunday afternoon would he... every dog has his day, that's all I'm saying!

THall04

Hoffmans wrote: »

2bedapartments now selling for 15k, thats only 3 years of your rent with plenty left over for decorating
and ya can sell it 7 years down the road tax free ..

Where are these 15K apartments?

Just done a serch on Daft.ie.....cheapest 2 bedroom for sale in Waterford was 35K

shockwave

There was 3 for sale in Penrose Lane, must have sold them I suppose.

Monty Burnz

barneystinson wrote: »

If you predict the end of the world for long enough you have to be right eventually.

I'm sorry, but that is nonsense and is the type of thing you hear from people who find the world around them to be completely bewildering and beyond understanding. It was blatantly obvious that we were in a bubble - it was one of the biggest property bubbles in history on the whole planet. Even many of those who bought knew that it could not last - they were just hoping to get out again before things went bust like someone 'investing' in a pyramid scheme.

barneystinson wrote: »

I'm not saying there wasn't irrational exuberance in some quarters, but there are as many views on the future of any economy, as there are people with an interest in economics.

"Some irrational exuberance"? And as I recall there was some unpleasantness during WW2.

Dum_Dum

shockwave wrote: »

There was 3 for sale in Penrose Lane, must have sold them I suppose.

If it turns out they where sold to NAMA insiders or 'connected' members of the business or political class then I'll be wheeling the guillotine out.

thomasm

shockwave wrote: »

There was 3 for sale in Penrose Lane, must have sold them I suppose.

Must be only sold this week. Saw them earlier on in the week. The were knocked down from 27k

7upfree

barneystinson wrote: »

Look at everything Morgan Kelly has ever written or asserted or predicted; no economist is a prophet - in this instance he got it right.

Walk into a bookies tomorrow, and wait til you see a relative outsider romp home at 20/1 - there'll be some fella there who was inspired to back him and he may well have had a "scientific" reason for doing so - but if he was really that good at picking winners he wouldn't be sitting in the bookies on a Sunday afternoon would he... every dog has his day, that's all I'm saying!

Absolute and utter nonsense. The man had researched the scenario, found out that dozens had already occurred, and then highlighted it. I think you'll find it's a bit different to betting on a horse. The difference was that he was the only one, along with a couple of others, betting on that particular horse. The rest of the "educated" fools got it completely, miserably, and utterly wrong. Soft landing my arse.

Monty Burnz

7upfree wrote: »

Absolute and utter nonsense. The man had researched the scenario, found out that dozens had already occurred, and then highlighted it. I think you'll find it's a bit different to betting on a horse. The difference was that he was the only one, along with a couple of others, betting on that particular horse. The rest of the "educated" fools got it completely, miserably, and utterly wrong. Soft landing my arse.

To be fair, quite a lot of economists with no skin in the game were pointing out our blatantly obvious bubble.

The economists who ignored it were working for the banks, the estate agents, the government - all of whom benefited in the short term from rising property prices. And they were the ones who the media asked (and STILL ask) for comment on the future of the property market, because most of the media also benefits from the property merry-go-round in terms of property and lending-related advertising.