irishweatheronline predicts the summer is about to arrive ?

cherryghost

ECM doesn't look great for next weekend. GFS still looks a little better but signs of a breakdown Saturday night/Sunday morning

PistolPete78

the ECM model is the only one that i can see showing rain crossing the country on Saturday night of the bank holiday.... all others gfs, gefs, etc show it dry..

Just wondering if met eireann use the ecm models and is this one favoured above the others....:):)

please tell me if ive got this completely wrong!!

mickger844posts

PistolPete78 wrote: »

the ECM model is the only one that i can see showing rain crossing the country on Saturday night of the bank holiday.... all others gfs, gefs, etc show it dry..

Just wondering if met eireann use the ecm models and is this one favoured above the others....:):)

please tell me if ive got this completely wrong!!

As far as i know Met Eireann use the ECM models. Your right ECM is the only model that has low pressure over us next Saturday. All the main others have a High close by.

cherryghost

Worst thing is that both charts have been fairly constant over the last few days so we're going to have to wait a few days until ECM hops on board (or vice versa )

Gonzo

I think the weather we have right now is as good as it's gonna be for the next week, we may get a decent tuesday and wednesday similar to today but cant see temperatures going beyond 22C with temperatures in the mid to high teens from thursday onwards. Even the bbc are only forecasting 21-23C for London over the next week so hightly doubt there is anything close to a heatwave for us and the uk. But considering how bad the summer's been so far, conditons like today and yesterday are grand and comfortable and im happy with that.

boatbuilder

Theres such a massive difference between MT's forecast and Met Eireann..... very confusing. Starting to regret cutting my hay last night!

M.T. Cranium

We currently have about fifty entries in the flash contest where boards members can predict the highest temperature now to end of July.

The median forecast (the middle of the pack) is 27.4 ... the range is from 21.3 to 31.7. :eek:

My forecast is 28.5. Some of the forum heavy hitters have not entered, maybe they're waiting for the last minute guidance or maybe they would rather not enter the town square and face the mob. Fair enough.

Clearly the ECM is a bit cooler in its outlook than the rest of the models. Would expect Wednesday and Saturday to be the two warmest days. However, the one thing that may also make a difference is that the slightly cooler air mass for Thursday-Friday is a very shallow high with only a slight dip in upper temperatures, which could mean that with the better drying parameters one of those days could produce some very warm readings in the southeast.

The Atlantic is obviously key to the outcome. If these air masses were over a similar latitude in central Canada I would say highs would be 28-32 C each day and could peak at 34.0. So we all realize the Atlantic will add low cloud, cooler surface (marine) layers, but the question is, how far inland does that influence extend each day, and what will local conditions like upslope or downslope breezes do to the results?

Since half the country lives in or near Dublin, I thought it might be interesting to check these daily temperatures for Dublin airport at the end of the week:

Monday 23
Tuesday 24
Wednesday 26
Thursday 22
Friday 24
Saturday 27
Sunday 22

The west coast will generally be 3-5 degrees cooler than this. Some places in the inland south and central counties might be a degree or two warmer. Locally around Dublin, I've noticed in my brief time on boards that you can get a situation of clearing skies and weak foehn warming east of the Dublin and Wicklow mountains, as long as a sea breeze doesn't destroy the fragile local warming. So a place like Bray could hit 28-30, but that won't be official in our contest. Oak Park seems likely to be the place for the actual highest of the week officially, and as I say, 28.5 is my guess. But I wouldn't be surprised to see anyone between 24.5 and 30.5 winning the contest. Outside that range, don't think it could happen. But it might.

compsys

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

We currently have about fifty entries in the flash contest where boards members can predict the highest temperature now to end of July.

The median forecast (the middle of the pack) is 27.4 ... the range is from 21.3 to 31.7. :eek:

My forecast is 28.5. Some of the forum heavy hitters have not entered, maybe they're waiting for the last minute guidance or maybe they would rather not enter the town square and face the mob. Fair enough.

Clearly the ECM is a bit cooler in its outlook than the rest of the models. Would expect Wednesday and Saturday to be the two warmest days. However, the one thing that may also make a difference is that the slightly cooler air mass for Thursday-Friday is a very shallow high with only a slight dip in upper temperatures, which could mean that with the better drying parameters one of those days could produce some very warm readings in the southeast.

The Atlantic is obviously key to the outcome. If these air masses were over a similar latitude in central Canada I would say highs would be 28-32 C each day and could peak at 34.0. So we all realize the Atlantic will add low cloud, cooler surface (marine) layers, but the question is, how far inland does that influence extend each day, and what will local conditions like upslope or downslope breezes do to the results?

Since half the country lives in or near Dublin, I thought it might be interesting to check these daily temperatures for Dublin airport at the end of the week:

Monday 23
Tuesday 24
Wednesday 26
Thursday 22
Friday 24
Saturday 27
Sunday 22

The west coast will generally be 3-5 degrees cooler than this. Some places in the inland south and central counties might be a degree or two warmer. Locally around Dublin, I've noticed in my brief time on boards that you can get a situation of clearing skies and weak foehn warming east of the Dublin and Wicklow mountains, as long as a sea breeze doesn't destroy the fragile local warming. So a place like Bray could hit 28-30, but that won't be official in our contest. Oak Park seems likely to be the place for the actual highest of the week officially, and as I say, 28.5 is my guess. But I wouldn't be surprised to see anyone between 24.5 and 30.5 winning the contest. Outside that range, don't think it could happen. But it might.

Interesting and informative post MT. You're a brave man for putting those figures out there, especially as the consensus among other weather forecasters seems to be for much cooler seasonal weather i.e. 19 or 20/21 degrees. If those highs were to come off for Dublin it would be great and be the first real period of above average warmth for Dublin since mid-April.

It'll be interesting to see if the warm spell is enough to leave July mean temps close to normal or even above. My guess is that for Dublin Airport at least we're going to see another month of below average temperatures.

M.T. Cranium

I think most places in Ireland are now sitting about 1.5 deg below normal for the first 24 days of the month. That would mean the last seven days would need to run 5.2 deg above normal to balance out at normal by end of the month.

It's possible and I think the range will be a scatter between -0.5 and +0.5 when all is said and done.

Entries continue to pour into the flash contest. Don't be discouraged if you miss the first deadline of 0300 tonight, there will be a secondary contest for later entries, just as long as we don't have predictions that have already verified, anyone can enter any time.

cherryghost

GFS 18z keeps a firm reassurance of good weather next weekend, possibly hanging on through Sunday too. ECM still isn't showing anything possitive though.

cherryghost

ECM looking a bit more positive for 29/30/31st now, still a bit off, GFS still looks good

mike65

28-30 C in Ireland this summer? No chance.

ch750536

I'm putting on a jumper. Constant drizzle outside just now. Estimate 16c no more.

Can't see the sun yet anyway.

weisses

Ireland doesn't get summers ... just a couple of days of decent weather every year .... and most of the time there is so much difference between east and west ... fecking constant drizzle since Friday night

Living near the beach can be brilliant but most of the times when there is a bit of a break in the weather that fcuking sea fog (drizzle) drifts in

cherryghost

mike65 wrote: »

28-30 C in Ireland this summer? No chance.

66,666 posts? Nice :P

I'm fairly confident that we might hit those temps on Saturday. The ECM's chart was poor since the start of it all and its been slightly improving as the days go by

mike65

Right now its just about to get slightly sunny. Very mild verging on a bit humid if the sun should break through it could be quite unpleasant!

Luckily 66,666 didn't last long.

nacho libre

It has been overcast and misty here for most of the day. If the sun did break through the clouds it could get fairly warm yet.

cherryghost

GFS at 12Z


There's a low situated north which could give way to cooler conditions at the far northern tip, hard to say at the mo, but the high pressure ridges are a tad closer than they were this morning.

Big Tone

We need that Azores High to get closer!

cherryghost

It was closer, then it wasn't at all, and now its nudging closer ever so slightly with each passing chart :P

dsmythy

The charts seem to have higher pressure all over Europe, North Africa and into deeper Russia for some periods. Surely a front and system has to develop somewhere and ruin someone's buzz? Or is that not something that has to happen in such situations?

Mothman

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Since half the country lives in or near Dublin, I thought it might be interesting to check these daily temperatures for Dublin airport at the end of the week:

Monday 23
Tuesday 24
Wednesday 26
Thursday 22
Friday 24
Saturday 27
Sunday 22

Dublin AP max today (Monday) 20.2C, Casement 20.1C
Synoptic station max 20.8C at Oak Park, Roches Point & Ballyhaise.

Pangea

Is there any day coming up for the Northwest that wont have any cloud cover or fog?
I will be climbing some hills and need a good clear day.

patneve2

dsmythy wrote: »

The charts seem to have higher pressure all over Europe, North Africa and into deeper Russia for some periods. Surely a front and system has to develop somewhere and ruin someone's buzz? Or is that not something that has to happen in such situations?

Conditions in the afternoon will be far from stable over many areas of the continent in the next week, especially over Italy and Central/Eastern Europe. The colder upper air there will give way to loads of thundery downpours which is pretty normal.

compsys

Mothman wrote: »

Dublin AP max today (Monday) 20.2C, Casement 20.1C
Synoptic station max 20.8C at Oak Park, Roches Point & Ballyhaise.

Surprised it got above 20 degrees at all today as it never really felt that warm - not that 20 degrees is that warm anyway but it's all relative at this stage I suppose.

M.T. Cranium

Pangea, I think your chances are about 30-50 per cent for good visibility each day but Thursday might prove a bit better than other days. A front will push east Wednesday night and somewhat drier air could work its way across Donegal from the northwest on Thursday. Friday might also have a better chance than other days of providing some clearer spells. But I would not say each day is a total write-off for the west and northwest coasts, there could be some brighter spells as the pressure gradient is quite slack and this disables the "conveyor belt of moisture" sort of synoptics that can sock in coastal areas for days. Good luck with it anyway.

mickger844posts

The forecast just on RTE would not give much hope of getting anyway near the Temps that MT is predicting for the week ahead. 22 or 23 is about as high as it will get according to Gerry Murphy. Think my 20 euros on 27.1 to 30.0 with Paddy power is a losing bet already. Wonder does MT still think this heat will arrive?

compsys

mickger844posts wrote: »

The forecast just on RTE would not give much hope of getting anyway near the Temps that MT is predicting for the week ahead. 22 or 23 is about as high as it will get according to Gerry Murphy. Think my 20 euros on 27.1 to 30.0 with Paddy power is a losing bet already. Wonder does MT still think this heat will arrive?

Yeah, Met E and MT certainly have two very widely differing forecasts. Obviously I hope MT's forecast is correct but Met E seem pretty confident that there'll be no major heat this week. The fact that they got today spot on too is worrying. Their forecast for Thursday and Friday looks fairly poor for late July - even by Irish standards!

The BBC are also going along with Met E and forecasting a return to quite cool conditions by the end of the week. *sigh*

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31?&search=dublin&itemsPerPage=10&region=world

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Pangea, I think your chances are about 30-50 per cent for good visibility each day but Thursday might prove a bit better than other days. A front will push east Wednesday night and somewhat drier air could work its way across Donegal from the northwest on Thursday. Friday might also have a better chance than other days of providing some clearer spells. But I would not say each day is a total write-off for the west and northwest coasts, there could be some brighter spells as the pressure gradient is quite slack and this disables the "conveyor belt of moisture" sort of synoptics that can sock in coastal areas for days. Good luck with it anyway.

Thanks for that M.T. It is dangerous on the hills if there is a risk of poor visibility so I don't want to take any chances

mickger844posts

compsys wrote: »

Yeah, Met E and MT certainly have two very widely differing forecasts. Obviously I hope MT's forecast is correct but Met E seem pretty confident that there'll be no major heat this week. The fact that they got today spot on too is worrying. Their forecast for Thursday and Friday looks fairly poor for late July - even by Irish standards!

The BBC are also going along with Met E and forecasting a return to quite cool conditions by the end of the week. *sigh*

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31?&search=dublin&itemsPerPage=10&region=world

Saw the lunchtime forecast on BBC and they had a very similar outlook to Met Eireann. At such a short range they hardly have it that wrong. Obviously MT sees something different so we will just have to hope he is right.