irishweatheronline predicts the summer is about to arrive ?

Villain

Su Campu wrote: »

Oak Park was 20.4 today, according to the 18Z synops.

Yea I maxed 20.2c at 15:15 but I was working in dublin and it was bloddy awful until after lunch constant drizzle and not at all mild

Su Campu

StratoQ wrote: »

On Thursday 21st July Met Eireann put their hand up and issued an apology (from Evelyn Cusack) in light of the extensive rainfall that day over south Dublin/north Wicklow.
http://www.irishcentral.com/story/news/danny_boy/weather-forecaster-in-surprise-apology-after-raining-on-nations-hopes-of-sunshine-126009248.html
It was probably unfortunate that the area is highly populated (how many times would say something similar happen and go unnoticed in the far west of Ireland?). Maybe an apology was hardly even merited for such a short lived event which really only affected a small area.
However I wonder will the IrishWeatherOnline be issuing an apology for persistently forecasting a heatwave ? They are very media savvy and are well adept at issuing press releases. Will they issue one this time to the nation's media and public?
The forecast temperatures issued by the IWO last week has proven to be woefully down. The original forecast some how took legs and wormed its way into the public consciousness through people such as Ray D'Arcy on Today FM. They continued more or less with a similar forecast for this week (with forecast temps still well above the odds).
Of course I dont think an apology would be merited if it was only say between folk such as ourselves - weather observers, who know that it is far from being an exact science. However when things get ramped up and hit the national media, they too should put their hand up and issue an unconditional apology.

IWO NEVER predicted a heatwave. In fact, a lot was done to dispel the optimism people were showing, especially in the media. TodayFM somehow latched onto a forecast of higher temperatures, and started throwing about the H word. So it's another case of forecasters paying the price for the media's misquotes.

Read this IWO article from July 21st. Temperatures of 22 - 25 °C were predicted. The actual high this week was 24.4 - not too bad I would say.

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/climate-news/warmer-weather-on-the-way-for-ireland/27779.html

As a result, temperatures will rise significantly in most parts of the country with temperatures showing a good 10-12 degrees rise on today’s 12-13C along parts of the East coast. However, it is unlikely that the country will enjoy wall-to-wall sunshine as one would expect with high pressure nearby or over us. Humidity levels will increase significantly, while marine cloud and elevated fog will drift some distance inland on some days.
It is still too early at this early point to confirm whether or not Ireland is set to experience a heatwave. The definition of a heatwave recommended by the World Meteorological Organisation is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 Celsius degrees (9 Fahrenheit degrees), the normal period being 1961–1990. On that basis, for a heatwave to be officially confirmed in Ireland next week the country would need to record average maximum temperatures of 20-21C each day for at least five days.

“As for the outlook, medium range weather models promise a warm week ahead with potential for highs in the range of at least 22-25 C in eastern and central counties. Temperatures will hover closer to 18-22 C in western counties, with the main issue here being marine cloud and elevated fog drifting some distance inland on some days”, he added.

Villain

IWO Twitter account tweeted on Tuesday that:

#iwo The warmest and sunniest days of the week look like being Sat and Sun. Sunshine will be more widespread and temps will hit the mid 20s

I also remember Peter forecasting highs of 27-28c for tomorrow earlier in the week.

I think the good thing to remember is that Met Éireann are the experts with the tools and expierence and while they the weather of this nation will catch out any forecast from time to time they are normally pretty spot on.

It may appear sometimes that they are slow to forecast what others say will happen but this week is a great example of how models can get it so wrong, the GFS was way out.

Danno

Looking back at last Sunday's RTE Weather for the week and last Sunday's MTC Boards prediction, MTC was going for a hot spell of 27c maxes whilst ME forecasted a low barging through the high pressure bringing rain and cooler temps for today.

Looks like Met Eireann were bang on the money.

JanuarySnowstor

Danno wrote: »

Looking back at last Sunday's RTE Weather for the week and last Sunday's MTC Boards prediction, MTC was going for a hot spell of 27c maxes whilst ME forecasted a low barging through the high pressure bringing rain and cooler temps for today.

Looks like Met Eireann were bang on the money.

Yes it must be said Met Eireann were spot on.
I think they went with their gut feeling that the Summer trend would continue and to ignore models that were literally all over the place.
It's been a poor Summer

Gonzo

I get the feeling this is gonna end like 2010, unsettled and cool/mild during August followed by a dry, sunny and warm September/October leading into a very cold and wintry November/December! would this make it the 5th crap summer in a row (altho last summer wasnt as bad)

Vanhalla

What a ****ed up ****in piece of **** for a country!!
i thought today was meant to be a great day. jesus.

Beatha4

Vanhalla wrote: »

What a ****ed up ****in piece of **** for a country!!
i thought today was meant to be a great day. jesus.

Where are you? It's not such a bad day here - 21C with some sunshine.

joe199

forget summer
winter is where the action is, altho i do love the sun:mad:

fizzycyst

Just my opinion but I don't think this summer has been too bad actually, well in Waterford anyway. My memory of the last few summers is that we had lots of rain with warm temps, this summer we had it a bit cooler with less rain and I prefer it that way. At least you can get out and do things when it's not wet. Of course like everyone else I would love a warm dry summer with a bit of rain here and there to encourage growth, but hey, we live in Ireland, those kinds of summers are few and far between.

As for forecasters getting it wrong, be it MET E or boardsies or whoever, it happens. Why would anyone have to apologise for that? I mean it's ridiculous, you have to expect them to get it wrong sometimes, with the number of variables at play in every situation it's impossible not to get it wrong somewhere along the way. I suppose the only difference is, MET E are PAID to give national forecasts as accurately as possible, that's why they need to be so conservative with theirs, but even still, this blame thing is silly.

Sometimes forecasts will be on the button and sometimes they won't, that's not going to change in the near future, fair play to anyone who puts their head on the block is what I say.

Su Campu

Right now is an example of how badly the models have been this week. The HiRLAM (updated at midday) is completely missing the heavy bands of rain currently reaching as far east as Leinster. I mean, if this hi-res model can't get it right for 2 hours ahead, what chance is there!

Compare the model output to the actual radar....

200motels

I think alot people seen to forget that our climate is a maritime one and cloud and rain will be the norm. If we get warm sunny weather enjoy it as it rarely stays around too long.

fryup

Vanhalla wrote: »

What a ****ed up ****in piece of **** for a country!!
i thought today was meant to be a great day. jesus.

i feel your pain, god help those tourists who come here

200motels wrote: »

I think alot people seen to forget that our climate is a maritime one and cloud and rain will be the norm. If we get warm sunny weather enjoy it as it rarely stays around too long.

yes but if i recall correctly we had great summers in the 80s

and over the past decade only one decent summer (06)

Mothman

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium
Since half the country lives in or near Dublin, I thought it might be interesting to check these daily temperatures for Dublin airport at the end of the week:

Monday 23 (actual 20.2C, country max 20.8C)
Tuesday 24 (actual 20.9C, country max 21.6C)
Wednesday 26 (actual 22.3C, country max 24.4C)
Thursday 22 (actual 16.9C, country max 18.5C)
Friday 24 (actual 16.7C, country max 20.4C)
Saturday 27 (actual 19.5C, country max 21.2C)
Sunday 22

Saturday; Dublin AP 19.5C, Casement 21.2C

I've added in the actual figures into the quote

200motels

fryup wrote: »

i feel your pain, god help those tourists who come here



yes but if i recall correctly we had great summers in the 80s

and over the past decade only one decent summer (06)

We had a couple of great summers in the 80's but not every summer as far as I can remember, maybe MT could check it out and have the facts.

jod1983

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2020525/Heatwave-Thousands-flock-Britains-beaches-heatwave-FINALLY-gets-way.html

Well, at least the neighbours are getting something!!!!!!

Pangea

Su Campu wrote: »

IWO NEVER predicted a heatwave.

True maybe some are picking it up from this tweet a while back.

@iweatheronline We rarely mention 'H' word but the medium range weather models are now indicating that a heatwave may occur on or before the middle of July
12:01 AM Jul 4th

Of course they above isn't a forecast as such and the key word being 'may occur' , but you can see how people might get excited and spread the word from that :P
In my opinion MT is doing a great job and hope he keeps up his interesting forecasting techniques

Deep Easterly

One thing I have noticed over the last while is that model runs (GFS/ECMWF/HIRLAM/UKMO etc) often pick up on a particular feature only to drop it in later runs YET turns out to be the most correct.

ECMWF MSLP & Rainfall forecast (00z run) from last Wednesday for today Saturday:



Fairly spot on on that particular run but oddly, the ECMWF had the showery rain moving in about 6-12hrs later in most of its later runs. I have noticed this with HIRLAM sometimes as well. About 2 days ago, they had showery rain moving across Ireland this afternoon yet they seemed to back down on its intensity in more recent runs. Amazingly, while the GFS were slower to pick up on the rain potential for today than the ECMWF, in the shorter term, they were actually more spot on regarding both the area the rain would fall and its intensity.

I think one lesson from all this might be not to take each individual model run as being gospel. It might be wiser to keep in mind earlier runs even if the latest run is showing something entirely different 3 to 5 days out.

Beatha4

jod1983 wrote: »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2020525/Heatwave-Thousands-flock-Britains-beaches-heatwave-FINALLY-gets-way.html

Well, at least the neighbours are getting something!!!!!!

I'm not sure it was all that hot over there - sunny but mostly around 20C, not much different to here except for the lack of sun, with a few 21s, 22s and 23s - not really a heatwave. Brighton, mentioned in that article, had a max of 18C today! And I can't see the temperatures getting anywhere near 30C over the next week as stated.

compsys

Beatha4 wrote: »

I'm not sure it was all that hot over there - sunny but mostly around 20C, not much different to here except for the lack of sun, with a few 21s, 22s and 23s - not really a heatwave. Brighton, mentioned in that article, had a max of 18C today! And I can't see the temperatures getting anywhere near 30C over the next week as stated.

The DM weather article is really referring, as always, to the extreme south east of England only and in particular central London.

I'm predicting temperatures will get very close to 30c in London by Wednesday. Whether it'll be the same thing 500km north in Scotland or 200km west in Cardiff is a different matter of course.

Beatha4

compsys wrote: »

The DM weather article is really referring, as always, to the extreme south east of England only and in particular central London.

I'm predicting temperatures will get very close to 30c in London by Wednesday. Whether it'll be the same thing 500km north in Scotland or 200km west in Cardiff is a different matter of course.

Even the south-east wasn't exceptionally hot and it isn't today although I'd take it at 23/24C and sunny! I'd be surprised if they reach 30C anywhere this week.

Mothman

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium
Since half the country lives in or near Dublin, I thought it might be interesting to check these daily temperatures for Dublin airport at the end of the week:

Monday 23 (actual 20.2C, country max 20.8C)
Tuesday 24 (actual 20.9C, country max 21.6C)
Wednesday 26 (actual 22.3C, country max 24.4C)
Thursday 22 (actual 16.9C, country max 18.5C)
Friday 24 (actual 16.7C, country max 20.4C)
Saturday 27 (actual 19.5C, country max 21.2C)
Sunday 22 (actual 20.1C, country max 20.1C)

Sunday; Just to finish up for the week, Dublin AP 20.1C which was also highest temp.
I have input the actual figures into the quote.
See original post #98 in this thread here

compsys

Beatha4 wrote: »

Even the south-east wasn't exceptionally hot and it isn't today although I'd take it at 23/24C and sunny! I'd be surprised if they reach 30C anywhere this week.

London got to over 24 degrees today.

Beatha4

compsys wrote: »

London got to over 24 degrees today.

Was warmer over there today alright - and there were even some 26's!

mike65

So things are now that bad here we're trying to get some reflected glory from the south east of England?